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PREGAME: Rd 13 vs Collingwood

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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Collingwood's best footy is the best I've seen so far this season from any team as much as it hurts to say. If we bring the effort we did against the saints it will be 100 points. Really hoping we come to play.

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    Agree with Binman in that our pressure ratings vs the Saints we're diabolical. If our pressure ratings were closer to where they were in the previous 5 games we likely would have won even if our accuracy was still poor.

    No deinfinitive evidence as to why our pressure and effort was so low, eg. it could be mental fragility/'not switched on' but it could very well be fatigue and/or the result of our designed high performance program. I much prefer the latter because it means the program is working and we're likely to regain the form we had at some stage.

    Fingers crossed it lifts signficantly before Monday or it could well be a blood bath. Replay our effort v the Saints on Monday and we could be staring at a 12+ goal drubbing.

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    It is what Collingwood do without the ball that makes them hard to beat i believe, they just don't stop running. In saying that, I still think we will have a decent crack at them.

    Edited by Dee Zephyr

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    28 minutes ago, BigFez said:

    Collingwood's best footy is the best I've seen so far this season from any team as much as it hurts to say. If we bring the effort we did against the saints it will be 100 points. Really hoping we come to play.

    100% we come to play for this. We will bring elite pressure imo. May well not be enough , as the pies are elite, but win or lose I reckon we will be proud of the dees Monday night! ** unless we kick 7.21 again ...in which case we will burn the club down**

    Edited by Wells 11

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    8 minutes ago, Dee*ceiving said:

    Agree with Binman in that our pressure ratings vs the Saints we're diabolical. If our pressure ratings were closer to where they were in the previous 5 games we likely would have won even if our accuracy was still poor.

    No deinfinitive evidence as to why our pressure and effort was so low, eg. it could be mental fragility/'not switched on' but it could very well be fatigue and/or the result of our designed high performance program. I much prefer the latter because it means the program is working and we're likely to regain the form we had at some stage.

    Fingers crossed it lifts signficantly before Monday or it could well be a blood bath. Replay our effort v the Saints on Monday and we could be staring at a 12+ goal drubbing.

    Bit like last year eh.. ? Pretty sure this discussion was heavily discussed this time last year and look how that turned out.

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    Yep!

    On that note, I'm keen for Jeffo to get another go but worry about his physicality, especially against the Pies. I admit I haven't seen much of Casey this year so I hope those that have can tell me he's been bringing some heat to the forward line on top of kicking bags against the also rans...

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    Jefferson and JVR have been playing together in the VFL for a few weeks now, so there must be some sort of chemistry amongst them, so I'd like to see them both come in, Petty to CHB and Lever back to the VFL for a while. Not likely to happen but who knows. Either TMac or JVR have to come in to do the relieving ruck work.

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    55 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

    It is what Collingwood do without the ball that makes them hard to beat i believe, they just don't stop running. In saying that, I still think we will have a decent crack at them.

    Spot on Zephyr. They consistently have spare players in space all over the ground

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    I think they'll put McVee on Bobby and try to have Salo or Bowey take Elliot as he is not as agile.

    29 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

    Spot on Zephyr. They consistently have spare players in space all over the ground

    Similar to our inconsistency in effort and intensity from week-to-week. Another old bad habit that is starting to rear its ugly head again is being sucked into the contest and being numbered on the outside.

    Watch Collingwood at every contest, if there are two of them, 1 will stay on the outside and if the ball spills out, they are gone. Same for marking situations as well. We have over committed to the contest too many times this year where we havent been able to nullify it or win it. This often leaves ta simple exit for opposition. The good old 'red mist'

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    On 04/06/2025 at 11:50, binman said:

    Agree. And disco has the wheels to go with Eliot on the lead

    image.png

    How long were you waiting to drag that one out binnie?

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    6 hours ago, Roost it far said:

    I get the feeling we won’t be leaving anything out there.

    Maybe just a lot of missed chances to score goals.

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    7 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

    No need to embarrass the Pies just yet

    I don't know about that. Any Lego fans on here interested in their new football range?

    bJ66KS5.jpg

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    20 hours ago, beelzebub said:

    Jnr Jnr Jnr have you not heard . We're in good hands .......

    Purely coincidental that our fitness drops after someone leaves and another teams betters when same said person joins.

    Co- incidence actually means two things happening at the same instance etc. Nowhere does anything dictate they must be mutually independent. ( often a misconception)

    We haven't been the same have we ....

    Burgess left three and a half years ago

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    8 hours ago, binman said:

    Of all stats, pressure rating is now by far and away the most reliable indicator in terms of the correlation between winning that stat and winning a game.

    The real challenge for teams is its simply not possible to bring elite pressure for more than say 3 or 4 weeks in a row. Tops.

    Not going to disagree with the basic premise that pressure is important but if you want a deep dive...

    First 7 games of the years, yes pressure wins (losses) were correlated with results. However, against wc, hawks, brisbane and sydney (tie) the results were actually inversely correlated with pressure. No question if you have a significant drop off you leave yourself very open to be scored. But if its 50/50 which a lot games are its actually only mildly significant based on our results. (Lets call it a 66 percent hit rate)

    As a comparison, some old fashion metrics, inside 50s and marks inside 50s.

    For us inside 50s we have only lost the inside 50s twice all year (hawks and gc). Inside 50s mean nothing for us sadly.

    Marks inside 50, we have won 5 times resulting in 4 wins. Lost 7 times for 6 losses So 10 out 12 games 'hit' rate.

    No doubt one can argue pressure will help win the marks inside 50. Imo our real deficiency relative to the rest of the comp is catching the darn thing near goal and putting it thru the middle. Anyway those are the numbers.

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    6 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said:

    We went from twice having two premier rucks to just one. And despite Max being as fit as he is, it must take a toll on him. The club has been caught napping in this department.

    Is it the club’s fault Dogga left?

    Is it the club’s fault Max and Grundy couldn’t work together?

    Is it the club’s fault TC was brought in but hasn’t been used for what the club had intended for him?

    Edited by Ghostwriter

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    1 minute ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    When do teams get announced?

    From the AFL website. I can't understand why the announcement is so late.

    The teams for the King's Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood will be announced at 6.20pm AEST on Sunday.

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    2 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

    From the AFL website. I can't understand why the announcement is so late.

    The teams for the King's Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood will be announced at 6.20pm AEST on Sunday.

    WHATTTT THE FUUURG!

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    8 hours ago, Roost it far said:

    On form Jefferson gets a game but we need a back up ruckman so I think JVR will get the nod. I’d be surprised if they are both bought in. Personally I’d be bringing in TMac for Lever but that’s unlikely.

    That form is the last two games against Preston and Sydney both at the bottom VFL. It is big step up against Collingwood. Having said that let's play Jefferson for the next month and see once and for all if he is an AFL level talent or not. JVR does not seem to have improved on his first year. If Jefferson comes in who does the back up Ruck? I have no idea. But please no JVR.

    Edited by old dee

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    34 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

    Not going to disagree with the basic premise that pressure is important but if you want a deep dive...

    First 7 games of the years, yes pressure wins (losses) were correlated with results. However, against wc, hawks, brisbane and sydney (tie) the results were actually inversely correlated with pressure. No question if you have a significant drop off you leave yourself very open to be scored. But if its 50/50 which a lot games are its actually only mildly significant based on our results. (Lets call it a 66 percent hit rate)

    As a comparison, some old fashion metrics, inside 50s and marks inside 50s.

    For us inside 50s we have only lost the inside 50s twice all year (hawks and gc). Inside 50s mean nothing for us sadly.

    Marks inside 50, we have won 5 times resulting in 4 wins. Lost 7 times for 6 losses So 10 out 12 games 'hit' rate.

    No doubt one can argue pressure will help win the marks inside 50. Imo our real deficiency relative to the rest of the comp is catching the darn thing near goal and putting it thru the middle. Anyway those are the numbers.

    That's the numbers for this season, fir us but you'rer right its not a direct correlation of course - though I will note that in the four wins you highlight the gap in pressure rating was marginal in three as you note the swans game tied).

    And I'd also note 66% hit rate is statistically significant.

    I suspect if the analysis was say 10 pressure points differential or would be close to 100%.

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    4 hours ago, Dee*ceiving said:

    No deinfinitive evidence as to why our pressure and effort was so low, eg. it could be mental fragility/'not switched on' but it could very well be fatigue and/or the result of our designed high performance program. I much prefer the latter because it means the program is working and we're likely to regain the form we had at some stage.

    The players are fit. Or fit enough. The rest is all between the ears - you're always fitter when a win is within grasp, and less fit when you're losing.

    For those into cycling there was a great example in the Giro last weekend where Wout van Aert was able to go above and beyond and put in a "one-hour career-best performance" because he knew that if he did so, his team-mate Simon Yates would win the Giro. It's not just Red Bull that gives you wings.

    Personally and with no actual evidence, my guess is that the players have been pushing themselves since the Fremantle game and in particular the Lions + Swans games, and sooner or later they were going to run out of steam. You can only go to the well so many times.

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    15 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

    From the AFL website. I can't understand why the announcement is so late.

    The teams for the King's Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood will be announced at 6.20pm AEST on Sunday.

    Strange that it's less than 24hours before a game.

    We'll have a pretty good idea on teams anyway by the time Casey play Collingwood tomorrow night.

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    1 hour ago, Ghostwriter said:

    Burgess left three and a half years ago

    Not to mention, we won more 4th quarters under Griffith in 2023 (18) than we did under Burgess in 2021 (16).

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