The Draft Pick Upgrade Thread

[mo64 5,910]

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

[John Demonic 5,988]

9 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL website reporting Melbourne has its future first-round pick on the table for the Suns' pick “13” selection. 

Hell yeah, this is a great move. I think it also might tap into Hardwick's psychology. The Tigers era has been and gone, and he's jumped ship right before it sank. Maybe they think we're in a similar boat to them: footy has moved passed us, and we're delusional about having the personnel and the buy-in to play the speed and skill of 2025 footy. Buy shares in our death-ride!

Conspiracy Theory Time: What if the events of the past week were a concerted effort to play up this image of an unstable club going into next year with two stars that don't want to be there, to convince the Suns, who we're currently in talks with for Pick 13, that we're a basket case and our future 1st is hot property. Hotter property than their pick 13 this year.

Surely, no club is that cunning. Pert, Clarry, everyone in on it, trolling Geelong and Gold Coast simultaneously. I'd love to think we're playing 4D chess and we're not a basket case. What a wonderful pre-2023 fantasy. 

Joking aside, if our current crisis could actually benefit us in some way by getting us pick 13, that's a pretty big positive to take into next year and we'll be better equipped to make that Future 1st a measly later pick.

Edited October 4, 2024 by John Demonic

[Fat Tony 5,337]

21 minutes ago, mo64 said:

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

We might have also been able to get Tholstrup with our original pick.

The whole concept of pushing up the draft is very expensive but it can be justified because we have been doing it to improve our team while we have Petracca, Gawn and Oliver in their prime. I am not sure that it holds anymore and, rather than paying credit card interest rates, I think we should be more willing to receive it.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,383]

Unless GC have high confidence in us bombing in 2025 then it feels like other clubs with interest are ahead of us with what they can offer. 

[Demons11 7,148]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

I’d rather pick 11 

[The Jackson FIX 3,512]

11 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

Or a Tapscott, Gysberts, Strauss or Blease

Not when J Taylor is behind the wheel. Only B Prendergast was capable of creating that mess 

[Ugottobekidding 1,244]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

Thols is a gun

[old55 23,861]

14 hours ago, Nascent said:

Like most years, we are seemingly on the hunt to have a better draft hand this year and have been linked to Gold Coasts pick 13 and Lions pick 20. 

With FA compo for some players released today, we potentially have other picks to target. However this has also strengthened our rivals hand to upgrade their picks if they decide to do that.

GWS now have 15, 16 (perryman) and 21 (Cumming).

Saints have picks 7, 8 (battle)

Freo have picks 10, 11, 18

Swans have picks 19, 22

 

We have currently picks 5, 40, 48, 53 and 64. Pick 25 (now 28) was suggested as a possible trade outcome for ANB but Peatling nominating crows perhaps complicates that.

We have allegedly already put our future 1st on offer for the Suns pick 13. Can we can get another top 20 pick by moving on our later picks to Brisbane?

A draft hand of 5, 13 and 20 would be an amazing outcome in a strong even draft.

Richmond are a very important player too. They may have 1, 6, 10, 14 and 18 after Rioli, Bolton and Baker are traded. They will want to move at least one into next year.

They also have a lot of later round picks that they could bundle to GC or Brisbane for draft points so could increase their bounty even further.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2024/

Edited October 4, 2024 by old55

[Lord Neville X Flash 284]

14 hours ago, Nascent said:

Like most years, we are seemingly on the hunt to have a better draft hand this year and have been linked to Gold Coasts pick 13 and Lions pick 20. 

With FA compo for some players released today, we potentially have other picks to target. However this has also strengthened our rivals hand to upgrade their picks if they decide to do that.

GWS now have 15, 16 (perryman) and 21 (Cumming).

Saints have picks 7, 8 (battle)

Freo have picks 10, 11, 18

Swans have picks 19, 22

 

We have currently picks 5, 40, 48, 53 and 64. Pick 25 (now 28) was suggested as a possible trade outcome for ANB but Peatling nominating crows perhaps complicates that.

We have allegedly already put our future 1st on offer for the Suns pick 13. Can we can get another top 20 pick by moving on our later picks to Brisbane?

A draft hand of 5, 13 and 20 would be an amazing outcome in a strong even draft.

We could also consider trading our first pick for multiple first rounders. I'd personally do:

- Freos 10 and 11 for pick 5

- St Kilda's 7 and 8, for pick 5, 25 and future first

- GWS 15 and 16 for future 1st 

- Freos pick 11 for future 1st

 

There seems to wildly different projected drafts, which makes me think having multiple top 15 picks is probably advantageous compared to pick 5 only.

Murphy Reid for example is projected to go pick 3 by RookieMe, pick 5 by Cal Twomey, pick 7 by Zerohanger and Fox, 10 by Mongrel Punt, pick 11 on BigFooty mock draft, pick 16 by ESPN. 

Edited October 5, 2024 by Lord Neville X Flash

[Mach5 4,768]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

Right... but if we had 27 & 35 but no list spots or intention to use them... and no other clubs were interested in acquiring them for anything of real value... wasn’t it worth climbing the order by a few spots to get more certainty in the absence of a better offer?

It’s not like teams were clamouring for 27 or 35. Not a lot of players of note taken around those spots.

[Mach5 4,768]

51 minutes ago, Lord Neville X Flash said:

We could also consider trading our first pick for multiple first rounders. I'd personally do:

- Freos 10 and 11 for pick 5

- St Kilda's 7 and 8, for pick 5, 25 and future first

- GWS 15 and 16 for future 1st 

- Freos pick 11 for future 1st

 

There seems to wildly different projected drafts, which makes me think having multiple top 15 picks is probably advantageous compared to pick 5 only.

Murphy Reid for example is projected to go pick 3 by RookieMe, pick 5 by Cal Twomey, pick 7 by Zerohanger and Fox, 10 by Mongrel Punt, pick 11 on BigFooty mock draft, pick 16 by ESPN. 

I feel like we wouldn’t rate Reid in our top 10.

[mo64 5,910]

41 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Right... but if we had 27 & 35 but no list spots or intention to use them... and no other clubs were interested in acquiring them for anything of real value... wasn’t it worth climbing the order by a few spots to get more certainty in the absence of a better offer?

It’s not like teams were clamouring for 27 or 35. Not a lot of players of note taken around those spots.

We had list spots available for Billings, Fullarton, McAdam, Schache and Hore. We had no intention to use those picks because we recruited list cloggers from other clubs.

And I've already listed players taken around and after those picks. Plus there are numerous who have debuted and shown promise like McAuliffe, Freijah and Roberts. Calsher Dear was taken F/S with pick 56. If we bid with pick 27, would the Hawks have matched?

[DeeSpencer 26,679]

43 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Right... but if we had 27 & 35 but no list spots or intention to use them... and no other clubs were interested in acquiring them for anything of real value... wasn’t it worth climbing the order by a few spots to get more certainty in the absence of a better offer?

It’s not like teams were clamouring for 27 or 35. Not a lot of players of note taken around those spots.

It’s nearly impossible to track because the Suns on traded and used those picks for academy but as far as I can tell 27 was flipped to the Saints and became 33 and the Saints used it for Angus Hastie. Mannagh was the standout pick of the second round so far.

35 would’ve been something in the 40’s and Joel Freijah is the standout there, from Lawson Humphries as the penultimate pick in the draft and Closehy in the rookie draft.

All together I think it’s fair in a draft that no one rated the late picks in to move up the draft. But it’s also worth questioning keeping Schache, bringing back Hore and generally not having enough list turnover or state league scouting.

If this draft is meant to be deep and even maybe rather than use a future first for pick 12 we should use a future 2nd and 3rd and aim for multiple picks in the 30’s and 40’s. (With the proviso being if JT has identified elite talent in the back end of the first round he gets the green flag).

 

[Redleg 42,164]

24 minutes ago, mo64 said:

We had list spots available for Billings, Fullarton, McAdam, Schache and Hore. We had no intention to use those picks because we recruited list cloggers from other clubs.

And I've already listed players taken around and after those picks. Plus there are numerous who have debuted and shown promise like McAuliffe, Freijah and Roberts. Calsher Dear was taken F/S with pick 56. If we bid with pick 27, would the Hawks have matched?

We wouldn’t have bid 27 and they would have matched absolutely given all the circumstances.

[Diamond_Jim 12,773]

14 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL website reporting Melbourne has its future first-round pick on the table for the Suns' pick “13” selection. 

I'd say a betting person would say our future first will be between 6 and 14 so trading for pick 13 is not a great trade

[Roost it far 10,137]

29 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I'd say a betting person would say our future first will be between 6 and 14 so trading for pick 13 is not a great trade

Get the players in now when you know it’s a strong, deep draft

[Diamond_Jim 12,773]

7 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Get the players in now when you know it’s a strong, deep draft

Tasmania aren't in  the draft next year or the following year.

These draft years are premium for the future of the club.

We have a questionable forward line along with queries over our midfield. An injury to Gawn of over four weeks costs us 3-4 ladder places.

Saying we will finish 5th or above in 2025 is a big punt

From what I've read this is an even draft which does not make it deep from a future quality viewpoint

Edited October 5, 2024 by Diamond_Jim

[Ted Lasso 19,586]

North are very open to sliding back so my proposition would be 

2 and 22 for our 5 and future first. 

Assuming we make the 8 next year we could guess that would make it something like 5 and 13 for 2 and 22 which feels reasonably fair in general. 

[58er 6,872]

6 hours ago, mo64 said:

It really worked out well for us last year, lol.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 to get pick 11. Don't get me wrong, I like Tholstrup, but we could have got Darcy Wilson, Logan Morris, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries or Sam Clohessy with later picks. Instead we topped up our list with recycled hacks after re-signing Schache.

I have no faith in our list management.

 

You have picked out ONE case and ONE season does not determine a flop win or loss. 

[58er 6,872]

15 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Tasmania aren't in  the draft next year or the following year.

These draft years are premium for the future of the club.

We have a questionable forward line along with queries over our midfield. An injury to Gawn of over four weeks costs us 3-4 ladder places.

Saying we will finish 5th or above in 2025 is a big punt

From what I've read this is an even draft which does not make it deep from a future quality viewpoint

Wrong this draft is consider DEEP that means plenty of depth with quality choices for first second and into third round. Mids and later on key position players of quality are prevalent this year. 

[Demon Disciple 12,537]

37 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Get the players in now when you know it’s a strong, deep draft

Agreed. It’s not about what tomorrows value might be, it’s about what you can bring in today.

[spirit of norm smith 16,679]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I'd say a betting person would say our future first will be between 6 and 14 so trading for pick 13 is not a great trade

Agree. It’s super risky. It’s banking on the rebound.  It’s backing yourself.  Maybe they think getting a player “this year” allows extra development and the strength of this years top 15 is very good.  Of course it depends on whether the pick availability and whether we can outbid others.  

[Mach5 4,768]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I'd say a betting person would say our future first will be between 6 and 14 so trading for pick 13 is not a great trade

It clearly is if we think this year’s crop is much better than next year’s.

If you’re purely looking at the numbers, then yeah, you’re right.

[58er 6,872]

18 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Agree. It’s super risky. It’s banking on the rebound.  It’s backing yourself.  Maybe they think getting a player “this year” allows extra development and the strength of this years top 15 is very good.  Of course it depends on whether the pick availability and whether we can outbid others.  

What ai would say is that I don’t want 5 already we have and say the 13 on offer to get say No2 and only one player from that trade.

With the draft depth a 5 and 13 is very good prospects for two high quality mids or a mid plus a high quality key position player like Armstrong or Faull depending upon other trade choices of other Clubs. 

[BAMF 4,484]

1 hour ago, Mach5 said:

It clearly is if we think this year’s crop is much better than next year’s.

If you’re purely looking at the numbers, then yeah, you’re right.

We also need to consider the benefit of bringing in a player a year earlier and having them in our system developing for 12 months.

If we believe our window is open now then sooner would be better than later. Especially if we are considering a tall like Tauru or Armstrong.

What's more value, pick 13 this year with 12 months development, or pick 6 next year?

I would be very hesitant to trade next year's first as it could very well be a top 5 pick.