The Run Home

[PaulRB 6,362]

I was thinking about another way our success of top four finishes has played against us, such that I’m open to us losing the rest this year, not for draft picks but to reset our draw in 2025 to be average versus the hard draws we’ve had every year since 2021. 
In the AFLs crazy new world of “entertainment” over competition, teams that finish top are penalised the following year with a harder draw. It’s a new “innovation” that makes it considerably harder for teams in their window to win multiple flags, as they are worn raw by the inequitable draw.

So how do we get a fair, or god forbid, a favorable draw? Not in terms of when and where, but who we play…? 
if we’d had tha same draw as the Hawks, or Dons we’d be sitting top 4… but for the fourth year we’ve had a horror draw.

Makes the competition unfair, and it’s a blight on the game. 

[PaulRB 6,362]

Also… while I’m ranting. 😃 Call out to @WheeloRatings to see if your stats boffins could produce an “Equitable Ladder” that is one based only on teams playing every other team once. For those you play twice the average result could be used, but only 4 points per team…

Any chance? 

[HarpenDee 249]

Well Todays results mean we may have to win our remaining 4 to make the 8!

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

2 minutes ago, HarpenDee said:

Well Todays results mean we may have to win our remaining 4 to make the 8!

Yep. It’s a very tall ask now 

look at the % differences 

[Antioch 232]

I can’t believe bottom four Whorethorn is above us on the ladder. The MFC players who won a grand final are now officially a disgrace. And how did Fritsch’s bum get so fat?? Maybe jogging around and doing nothing!???

[Demonsone 2,037]

Reality is how Hawthorn have won more games than us and the dogs have turned it around! The blow torch needs to go onto Goodwin and his assistants as something is clearly wrong with our game plan and our smashing of clearances all season, a review of our footy dept including the horrible trades of what’s come in vs what we let go

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Dogs will finish our season officially

[beelzebub 23,348]

43 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Since round 8 when we were 6-2

We have gone 4-7 and had a fairly easy run at times

We are in horrible form 

Reset and rebuild for 2025-2027

I fear the clarity of your thoughts may be lost on some. I neither blame nor dismiss them. Their desire is real. However what is..is.  What is is a hill inclined to about 60deg. Anyone attempting to scale said hill must approach the incline and jump and scramble with unheralded gusto and unerring  grip for the slighest mistake will have them sliding to the hill's base. This is the mission facing the might Dees at present.

It's not so much a run home as scaling K2.. ( i thought and realised denoting Everest might be a bit far fetched )

Anything can happen in footy. That said more often than not the 'expected ' often happens.

Could we come up against the Pups at a worse time ?  Port are flying...  Suns...whatever....in reality thst game doesn't matter....  and the Pies... what an ironic game that will be.

Time to admit 24 is truly cooked... best we start 25 in earnest...now..   truth be told, we might as well.

[Demonsone 2,037]

10 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I fear the clarity of your thoughts may be lost on some. I neither blame nor dismiss them. Their desire is real. However what is..is.  What is is a hill inclined to about 60deg. Anyone attempting to scale said hill must approach the incline and jump and scramble with unheralded gusto and unerring  grip for the slighest mistake will have them sliding to the hill's base. This is the mission facing the might Dees at present.

It's not so much a run home as scaling K2.. ( i thought and realised denoting Everest might be a bit far fetched )

Anything can happen in footy. That said more often than not the 'expected ' often happens.

Could we come up against the Pups at a worse time ?  Port are flying...  Suns...whatever....in reality thst game doesn't matter....  and the Pies... what an ironic game that will be.

Time to admit 24 is truly cooked... best we start 25 in earnest...now..   truth be told, we might as well.

We are cooked and disappointing, but only hope we can knock out the pies from playing finals 

[loges 6,767]

25 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I fear the clarity of your thoughts may be lost on some. I neither blame nor dismiss them. Their desire is real. However what is..is.  What is is a hill inclined to about 60deg. Anyone attempting to scale said hill must approach the incline and jump and scramble with unheralded gusto and unerring  grip for the slighest mistake will have them sliding to the hill's base. This is the mission facing the might Dees at present.

It's not so much a run home as scaling K2.. ( i thought and realised denoting Everest might be a bit far fetched )

Anything can happen in footy. That said more often than not the 'expected ' often happens.

Could we come up against the Pups at a worse time ?  Port are flying...  Suns...whatever....in reality thst game doesn't matter....  and the Pies... what an ironic game that will be.

Time to admit 24 is truly cooked... best we start 25 in earnest...now..   truth be told, we might as well.

Mountain climbing anyone ?

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

1 hour ago, PaulRB said:

I was thinking about another way our success of top four finishes has played against us, such that I’m open to us losing the rest this year, not for draft picks but to reset our draw in 2025 to be average versus the hard draws we’ve had every year since 2021. 
In the AFLs crazy new world of “entertainment” over competition, teams that finish top are penalised the following year with a harder draw. It’s a new “innovation” that makes it considerably harder for teams in their window to win multiple flags, as they are worn raw by the inequitable draw.

So how do we get a fair, or god forbid, a favorable draw? Not in terms of when and where, but who we play…? 
if we’d had tha same draw as the Hawks, or Dons we’d be sitting top 4… but for the fourth year we’ve had a horror draw.

Makes the competition unfair, and it’s a blight on the game. 

Well we are every chance of finishing 13th this year and get an easier draw in 2025.

Current form of 4-7 and who we play I'd say it's more likely than not to happen.

[dazzledavey36 54,861]

52 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Dogs will finish our season officially

It's finished already.

I'm not saying we've already put the cue in the rack it's more just saying that this is the reality of it all.

The doggies and Hawks are in mighty form and deserve to be ahead of us fighting out for 8th. I think the Hawks just miss out and watching the doggies today, I can easily see them shaking up the finals series just with the way they're going.

Us missing finals isn't a bad thing though. Means some forced changes need to happen with the footy department in terms of coaching restructure.

We'll see a few early retirements such as Brown and Hunter and then maybe there'll be hard decisions made on guys like Salem who may be put up for trade.

The positive is with us already blooding some kids this year, we've seen that there is talent on the list. If we can really nail this trade and draft off season then I can see us bouncing back into finals contention next year.

Edited July 28 by dazzledavey36

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

1 hour ago, PaulRB said:

Also… while I’m ranting. 😃 Call out to @WheeloRatings to see if your stats boffins could produce an “Equitable Ladder” that is one based only on teams playing every other team once. For those you play twice the average result could be used, but only 4 points per team…

Any chance? 

Here is the ladder if the average result was used where two teams played each other twice, ordered by Match Ratio (% of possible points) given different numbers of opposition teams played.

		M	W	L	D	For	Agn	Pts	MR	%
1	Sydney	16	12.0	4.0	0.0	1630.5	1157.5	48.0	75.0	140.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	16	10.5	5.5	0.0	1424.0	1248.0	42.0	65.6	114.1
3	Fremantle	14	8.5	4.5	1.0	1175.0	1002.5	36.0	64.3	117.2
4	Brisbane	16	9.5	6.0	0.5	1513.5	1266.5	39.0	60.9	119.5
5	Carlton	14	8.5	5.5	0.0	1310.5	1207.5	34.0	60.7	108.5
6	Geelong	15	9.0	6.0	0.0	1345.5	1255.0	36.0	60.0	107.2
7	Western Bulldogs	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1462.5	1228.0	38.0	59.4	119.1
8	Melbourne	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1282.0	1189.0	38.0	59.4	107.8
9	Port Adelaide	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1377.0	1304.5	38.0	59.4	105.6
10	Hawthorn	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1312.5	1278.0	38.0	59.4	102.7
11	Collingwood	17	8.5	7.0	1.5	1484.5	1447.0	37.0	54.4	102.6
12	Gold Coast	16	8.5	7.5	0.0	1368.0	1318.5	34.0	53.1	103.8
13	Essendon	15	7.5	7.0	0.5	1243.5	1316.5	31.0	51.7	94.5
14	Adelaide	16	6.5	9.0	0.5	1310.0	1255.5	27.0	42.2	104.3
15	St Kilda	16	6.5	9.5	0.0	1176.0	1230.5	26.0	40.6	95.6
16	West Coast	15	2.0	13.0	0.0	978.5	1511.0	8.0	13.3	64.8
17	Richmond	16	2.0	14.0	0.0	1032.5	1618.5	8.0	12.5	63.8
18	North Melbourne	16	1.5	14.5	0.0	1125.0	1717.0	6.0	9.4	65.5

[DeeZee 7,378]

Gus’s retirement knocked us for six and we never really recovered. ( his loss can’t be underestimated). Plus we were unable to cover for Clarrys slow start and Tracs and Gawns injuries .

We will need another preseason to take stock and reset for next year.

Wouldn’t have done any serious damage in finals this year anyway.

[jumbo returns 6,741]

1 hour ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Dogs will finish our season officially

Amen to that

[PaulRB 6,362]

25 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Here is the ladder if the average result was used where two teams played each other twice, ordered by Match Ratio (% of possible points) given different numbers of opposition teams played.

		M	W	L	D	For	Agn	Pts	MR	%
1	Sydney	16	12.0	4.0	0.0	1630.5	1157.5	48.0	75.0	140.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	16	10.5	5.5	0.0	1424.0	1248.0	42.0	65.6	114.1
3	Fremantle	14	8.5	4.5	1.0	1175.0	1002.5	36.0	64.3	117.2
4	Brisbane	16	9.5	6.0	0.5	1513.5	1266.5	39.0	60.9	119.5
5	Carlton	14	8.5	5.5	0.0	1310.5	1207.5	34.0	60.7	108.5
6	Geelong	15	9.0	6.0	0.0	1345.5	1255.0	36.0	60.0	107.2
7	Western Bulldogs	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1462.5	1228.0	38.0	59.4	119.1
8	Melbourne	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1282.0	1189.0	38.0	59.4	107.8
9	Port Adelaide	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1377.0	1304.5	38.0	59.4	105.6
10	Hawthorn	16	9.5	6.5	0.0	1312.5	1278.0	38.0	59.4	102.7
11	Collingwood	17	8.5	7.0	1.5	1484.5	1447.0	37.0	54.4	102.6
12	Gold Coast	16	8.5	7.5	0.0	1368.0	1318.5	34.0	53.1	103.8
13	Essendon	15	7.5	7.0	0.5	1243.5	1316.5	31.0	51.7	94.5
14	Adelaide	16	6.5	9.0	0.5	1310.0	1255.5	27.0	42.2	104.3
15	St Kilda	16	6.5	9.5	0.0	1176.0	1230.5	26.0	40.6	95.6
16	West Coast	15	2.0	13.0	0.0	978.5	1511.0	8.0	13.3	64.8
17	Richmond	16	2.0	14.0	0.0	1032.5	1618.5	8.0	12.5	63.8
18	North Melbourne	16	1.5	14.5	0.0	1125.0	1717.0	6.0	9.4	65.5

Thank you! That’s interesting and feels right with Hawks and Dons lower and us on edge of 8 and with a real chance to come home with a wet sail… 

Interesting that it rates GWS as second best. 

My kingdom for an equitable competition. 

Edited July 28 by PaulRB

[Bitter but optimistic 22,237]

14 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

Gus’s retirement knocked us for six and we never really recovered. ( his loss can’t be underestimated). Plus we were unable to cover for Clarrys slow start and Tracs and Gawns injuries .

We will need another preseason to take stock and reset for next year.

Wouldn’t have done any serious damage in finals this year anyway.

I disagree DZ   I hope we make finals (even if it's a short visit)

Image the experience of a taste for our younger brigade.

[beelzebub 23,348]

1 minute ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

I disagree DZ   I hope we make finals (even if it's a short visit)

Image the experience of a taste for our younger brigade.

Yep ...get there...get arses kicked.. marvellous... NOT !! 

Let their experience be positive... not soul sapping.

Time..place...   not this year.

[layzie 33,793]

Well if one thing about a good draw is prime time games I definitely don't want to hear complaining when we don't get them anymore. We got them and people hated it.

As for a fair draw I don't care either, just play better or retire.

[Demonsone 2,037]

11 hours ago, DeeZee said:

Gus’s retirement knocked us for six and we never really recovered. ( his loss can’t be underestimated). Plus we were unable to cover for Clarrys slow start and Tracs and Gawns injuries .

We will need another preseason to take stock and reset for next year.

Wouldn’t have done any serious damage in finals this year anyway.

Yeah we lost quality but it shouldn’t disguise the real issues of our coaches/game plan, poor drafting and what’s we have lost and exposed our ruck & mids, a review is needed on our list mgt & new assistant coaches 

[The heart beats true 18,123]

Interesting article on the AFL website ranking the fixture difficulty to date, and then the run home.

The most fascinating one is Carlton. Had the equal 9th hardest run to date, but then have the 15th hardest run over the next month!

How a team makes a preliminary final and gets that fixture the next year is beyond comprehension. They are the only team to play 17th and 18th twice this year.

The fixture is so rigged it makes a mockery of playing so many games. Just give the finals to the teams you want in it AFL, and save us all a couple of months.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Well if one thing about a good draw is prime time games I definitely don't want to hear complaining when we don't get them anymore. We got them and people hated it.

As for a fair draw I don't care either, just play better or retire.

Yep that's a good point.

We're probably projected now to finish 12th-13th which will mean far less Thursday and Saturday night games in the first 15 rounds of next year compared to this year.

There will be more Sunday 1:10 games and maybe even some Saturday arvo's of which we had none of this year. 

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,547]

We have everything to play for.

Personally, I don't think we'll make the finals. We need to win every game and I just don't see it. The doggies are flying. GC up there will be hard (it has been for most others), Port will be tough and the Pies always find something against us. Can we win some? Sure. We CAN win them all, but with Gawn clearly not right yet, no Trac, a half-fit Clarry, and an apparent inability to play 4 quarters of consistent football, I don't see it. Happy to be proven wrong though. If we do, we will enter the finals like a steam train and will have earnt it, and will worry other teams. 

BUT, to me at least making finals doesn't really matter. This year has been hard. We lost Gus, who is an irreplaceable, last minute anyway. Looking at guys like Houston is smart. But that's for 2025. Trac being injured for most of the year, Clarry not being fit, these are not nothings. We have been missing forwards/forward synergy, which really should have been planned better, but alas here we are. Missing players, Petty being way off, Melksham only just re-joining. JVR and Disco are kids. If we don't make finals, we need to finish the year as a team who will be serious contenders next year. 

Maybe I have had too much coffee/got a little more sleep than normal (thanks, bub!) - but I am feeling pretty good about our prospects next year. Trac will be back, Clarry will be fit, Max will be patched up and good to go. We start the year with JVR/Fritter/Melksham (who will get another year for sure) and Disco up forward - plus Chin, Kosi etc - pretty dynamic and dangerous. Petty has been good the last month, I think he will start strong. He may go back if TMac hangs em up, though. May has another good year or two. Flanked by Lever of course. Judd etc. Viney has another couple of years, The kids will bulk up a little, build a tank. That's a good core.

But - ending this year strong and with a message to send in 2025 will mean we can make an argument for trades. As it stands, we will not be the only team looking to plug holes. We're not a destination club and honestly we're a little bit of a basket case - and I say this with love - the 'which Dees' will turn up today, or any quarter actually, is something that causes blood pressure spikes, for me anyway. If we are to contend next year we MUST get on top of that. We need to play 4 quarters. That does not mean full intensity for 4 quarters, that's not smart, and not possible for the full year. But we should expect effort and consistency over the 4 quarters. No more fadeouts, and letting teams slam 5 goals at the end of the game to put us out of touch. Get on top of skills. Basic skills. No more hospital handballs. Hit targets. SKILLS!

We need to sell ourselves to trade prospects that they will find success with us. I think we can win a flag next year. But, together with good health to our stars and our kids improving, this means we need to fill gaps - a replacement for Gus. Maybe another forward, and definitely another plug and play ruck if we're not going to play Fullarton. At least. Plus a better, more consistent game plan. Which will be assisted by having all/most of our guys on hand, of course. We have not had a 'game' this year. Its been a mess. I know, in part affected by personnel. But I think we have been confused at times as to what/who we are. We need to settle that in the offseason and commit to it/one another. 

Whatever happens, I just want the boys to have a dip and end the year like they know we can do it next year, and they want to enter 2025 with some momentum and send a message to other teams, and trade prospects. Work on regaining reputation and a consistent brand of footy. There are other teams on the up, we need to push. 

I really think we can do it. Other teams avoid these dips. But it takes vision, smarts, hard work and commitment. 

(If you made it this far, thanks for reading!)

Let's go 💙❤️

[roy11 3,852]

Keep doing the Autoladder tipping on the Squiggle website and then getting angry at the machine. 

[M_9 2,082]

My 'doom and gloom' outlook extends to next year and beyond. Other than JvR, Caleb and ? I can't see any of our current players getting any better. MJ our only real hope at Casey. Some dead wood will go and hopefully JT and his mob have learnt not to recruit more dead wood.