The Pick 1 Thread

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

7 minutes ago, JJJ said:

WC 3, 8 + 11

North 1 

MFC 2

Geelong 6

Personally if that were to eventuate or something similar I would be ok with it.

I understand there would be more to it than that. Need to be a F1st or F2nd involved, Geelong can't just give up 8 and get 6 for free

That's a big commitment from Taylor/Lamb: our whole 2023 remaining draft picks (except 42) for pick two. 

Hope Duursma is worth it!

Edited October 26, 2023 by Stiff Arm

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,990]

8 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Very good source told me WC are trying to turn pick 1 into 3 top 10 picks. Also told me that the stories about WC are wanting the WA tall are a tad embellished.

The stumbling block is North Melbourne. they want Pick 1 and to keep 2 or 3 so they get either the better Tassie mid or Duursma. 

My guess is that it could look something like below…. Which is 3 inside top 11. There would be some additional bits and pieces thrown in to balance it out.

WC 3, 8 + 11

North 1 

MFC 2

Geelong 6

Personally if that were to eventuate or something similar I would be ok with it.

No way North is giving up 2 & 3 for 1

If there was a 4 way trade it could look more like:

North give: 3, 15 & 17 / get 1 & future 2nd

WCE give: 1 & 23 & future 2nd / get 6, 8 & 11

Melb Give: 6 & 11 / get 3 & 17

Geel give: 8 / get 15 & 23

Edited October 27, 2023 by DistrACTION Jackson

[DeeSpencer 23,721]

22 minutes ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

I saw a comment online that Adelaide tried to get JHF in 2021 by offering three first rounders and were rejected. The three picks ending up being used on Rachele, Rankine and Dawson. Adelaide were MUCH better off in the end not trading. JHF had similar hype to Reid. Ignoring his personality for a minute, JHF looks like an incredible player at times but he only performs in bursts and there’s no guarantees he’ll even make it as an elite midfielder.

I still want us to trade for Reid because it’s worth the risk IMO but hopefully it works out either way for us.

 

You need the salary cap space and the players wanting to join to get Rankine and Dawson, purely on picks it’s not nearly as good a deal, especially when they asked for a North second rounder back as well which would’ve cancelled the Dawson pick.

If we could swap 11 and a future first (providing we play finals which is far from a guarantee) for eagles 2nd or even 3rd rounders suddenly we aren’t giving up nearly as much in that part of the trade. 

If 11 and a future first got us some high profile trades in then I’d say let’s use them for mature star players, but we just had our 3rd trade period without bringing in any quality so we are either cash strapped and/or far from a destination club. 

Looking at our list build our best pathway to bringing in stars is the draft and particularly the top 5 or so picks. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,054]

14 hours ago, jnrmac said:

• Pick 56 Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Dougall Howard, Ryan OKeefe
• Pick 43 Adam Goodes
• Pick 42 Bacher houli, Jack Steven, Martin Pike, 
• Pick 40 Michael O'loughlin, Luke Parker, Tom Stewart, ANB, Jask Kennedy, Gary Ablett. 
• Pick 58 lachie Neale
• Pick 60 Brad Scott, Derek Kickett
• Pick 79 James Hird
• Pick 58 Dane Swan
• Pick 71 Brian Lake

There is always value if you get it right,...

Swans did well.

[Sydee 3,765]

10 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Very good source told me WC are trying to turn pick 1 into 3 top 10 picks. Also told me that the stories about WC are wanting the WA tall are a tad embellished.

The stumbling block is North Melbourne. they want Pick 1 and to keep 2 or 3 so they get either the better Tassie mid or Duursma. 

My guess is that it could look something like below…. Which is 3 inside top 11. There would be some additional bits and pieces thrown in to balance it out.

WC 3, 8 + 11

North 1 

MFC 2

Geelong 6

Personally if that were to eventuate or something similar I would be ok with it.

I’d prefer to keep 6&11 thx 

[DeeSpencer 23,721]

24 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Very good source told me WC are trying to turn pick 1 into 3 top 10 picks. Also told me that the stories about WC are wanting the WA tall are a tad embellished.

The stumbling block is North Melbourne. they want Pick 1 and to keep 2 or 3 so they get either the better Tassie mid or Duursma. 

My guess is that it could look something like below…. Which is 3 inside top 11. There would be some additional bits and pieces thrown in to balance it out.

WC 3, 8 + 11

North 1 

MFC 2

Geelong 6

Personally if that were to eventuate or something similar I would be ok with it.

 

Melbourne to North: 6 + 11 for 2

North to Geelong: 15, 17 for 8

North to WC: 3, 8, 11 for 1

North turn 2, 3, 15, 17 in to 1 and 6.

Maybe a future 2nd from Eagles to Geelong for a later cats pick? I’m sure they’d be 100 other picks involved.

Edited October 27, 2023 by DeeSpencer

[BW511 2,357]

I’m happy to burn picks if it lands Reid, not so convinced if it’s for Zane D.

Reid can play and would impact from Round 1, Zane won’t.

Would much prefer 6 & 11 if this scenario plays out

[durango 1,985]

Lets be realistic and none of the above will happen because Harley is not worth 3 first round picks under 11.

Melbourne made the same mistake in the 80's with Moore and Templeton who was a crock they gave away 3 interstate draft picks and could not afford 2 good players who wanted to play under Barassi, clearing Jackson as well.

6 and 11 should be good players.

[Gator 16,921]

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

Oliver 5

4

[Gawndy the Great 8,085]

1 hour ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

I saw a comment online that Adelaide tried to get JHF in 2021 by offering three first rounders and were rejected. The three picks ending up being used on Rachele, Rankine and Dawson. Adelaide were MUCH better off in the end not trading. JHF had similar hype to Reid. Ignoring his personality for a minute, JHF looks like an incredible player at times but he only performs in bursts and there’s no guarantees he’ll even make it as an elite midfielder.

I still want us to trade for Reid because it’s worth the risk IMO but hopefully it works out either way for us.

 

He will be a star. The only thing stopping him is the mental side of things. Definitely can see the kid winning a Brownlow. 

[greenwaves 371]

22 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Fox also thinks that WC have told North that both pick 2 & 3 need to be involved, and I can’t see any way that this happens. I also doubt they’d offer a F1 as it’d also be a top 4 pick.

I think North will compromise and give one of pick two/three.   West Coast would be mad not to take the deal

Edited October 27, 2023 by greenwaves

[dazzledavey36 49,927]

36 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

He will be a star. The only thing stopping him is the mental side of things. Definitely can see the kid winning a Brownlow. 

Talking about Rankine?

He certainly surprised me this year. I thought his career was heading down the same pathway as Richard Tambling but he really surprised me this year.

Slowly becoming one of my favourite players in the competition 

[Little Goffy 13,121]

I think the key thing about top picks vs low picks is how much of your list you are willing to commit to using to churn through the 'possibles'.

Clearly in the last ten years almost all clubs have preferred to retain depth-level established players to limit risk, rather than have an extra third or fourth round selection coming through on a regular basis.

Hypothetically, with zero injuries you could happily have 20 kids on your list and be cutting a third of them every year as you figure out whether they are up to AFL level, meaning six or seven new draftees annually. With four late picks every year, you're going to find (or create once they are in the system) some gems eventually. It also would mean vast amounts of loose salary cap for your stars. Only downside would be the footy dept resources required to both develop those kids and to keep the culture up with so many 20-year-olds sitting on the fringe.

Of course, in a world where allegedly an intellectually disabled child ate an apple therefore we must all suffer, injuries happen so you can't be so extreme. But I think there's a case for a pretty significant 'tail' to a list for the sake of searching for the occasional gem and for keeping the salary cap sharp.

Of course, my 'and Carthage must be destroyed' line will always be that the lower-tier and reserves levels of Australian football should be getting a massive boost of resources to transform both the available career development paths and the available depth and late-bloomer bounty for the AFL level.

[fr_ap 2,283]

2 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

I understand there would be more to it than that. Need to be a F1st or F2nd involved, Geelong can't just give up 8 and get 6 for free

That's a big commitment from Taylor/Lamb: our whole 2023 remaining draft picks (except 42) for pick two. 

Hope Duursma is worth it!

Why would we do this for Duursma? 

Mckercher is far and away the better prospect

[samcantstandya 979]

6 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Maybe Reid, Brown f/s, upgrade Turner and Andrew as b rookie?

And Orlando Turner as a rookie

[Roger Mellie 3,695]

5 hours ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

I may have missed something that's already been discussed, and if I have I apologise in advance.

Melbourne offered picks 6, 11, 42 and future first round pick for pick 1.  My understanding is Melbourne wanted 42 to pick up Kynan Brown under father/son.  If they're willing to use all their draft picks to get 1, does that mean Melbourne aren't interested in Brown?

 

EDIT - I can see some discussion, so yes, I apologise.  I'll have a read through properly.  Sorry, just with some Year 11s this morning helping them revise for exams.... not one of my most engaged mornings, I'm afraid.

We have late picks available as well if needed - in the 90's, I think. So, it's immaterial if we have 42 or not, so long as we have the correct no. of players on the list when it's all said and done.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,286]

5 hours ago, durango said:

Lets be realistic and none of the above will happen because Harley is not worth 3 first round picks under 11.

Melbourne made the same mistake in the 80's with Moore and Templeton who was a crock they gave away 3 interstate draft picks and could not afford 2 good players who wanted to play under Barassi, clearing Jackson as well.

6 and 11 should be good players.

What?

1. If Reid was available for F8, F9 and F10, I'd definitely take Reid
2. I'd love to see the evidence for all the conclusions you've drawn in paragraph two.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Queanbeyan Demon

[bandicoot 1,395]

5 hours ago, durango said:

Lets be realistic and none of the above will happen because Harley is not worth 3 first round picks under 11.

Melbourne made the same mistake in the 80's with Moore and Templeton who was a crock they gave away 3 interstate draft picks and could not afford 2 good players who wanted to play under Barassi, clearing Jackson as well.

6 and 11 should be good players.

6,11 and F1st is right at the limit for Reid 

[bing181 8,366]

6 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

North to Geelong: 15, 17 for 8

Geelong are not doing that, even with a future sweetener.

All this is going on because everyone's jostling to get into the top 10, the quality really drops off after that.

[bandicoot 1,395]

5 hours ago, greenwaves said:

I think North will compromise and give one of pick two/three.   West Coast would be mad not to take the deal

Don’t think north will give up 3 and 15 for pick 1… regardless 6,11 and F1st is a better hand 

[Nascent 7,890]

6 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Don’t think north will give up 3 and 15 for pick 1… regardless 6,11 and F1st is a better hand 

North would be laughing if that's all it cost them in my view.

[DeeSpencer 23,721]

7 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Geelong are not doing that, even with a future sweetener.

All this is going on because everyone's jostling to get into the top 10, the quality really drops off after that.

Might’ve been Mackie just talking for talks sake but the Cats pick has been fairly consistently linked as been open for a trade down.

Cats pick 8 will be 10+ come draft night, they may well rate 2 bites at the next range of talent over 1 player already outside the top range. 

The Dees were very keen to move to 11 but I’m struggling to see just who’s available there who’s a clear standout over the next few aside from potentially getting more tall options still on the board. The 10-20 range all look talented but far from a sure thing to me before a further drop off from 20+

[WalkingCivilWar 35,426]

5 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Talking about Rankine?

He certainly surprised me this year.

He surprised me, too! Literally. I was concussed when he kicked a goal and the ball hit me on the head. 🤭

[old55 21,930]

59 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Don’t think north will give up 3 and 15 for pick 1… regardless 6,11 and F1st is a better hand 

North already offered 2 plus 15 and 17 for 1 and 23 and WC said no.

Edited October 27, 2023 by old55

[spirit of norm smith 13,670]

Time to let the chase for pick 1 settle … until the night before…