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The Pick 1 Thread


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I suspect westcoast will trade, they need multiple players to rebuild they cannot afford to waste all their credit on one player.  I would expect them to hold out until the last moment to see what everyone will offer, after all what is the hurry, the longer they hold out the greater chance someone will increase their offer. Also, the AFL would like that drama to play out on TV on draft night.

i have not seen the highly rated no1 player but i would be happy taking our existing picks to the draft. as previously stated it is a lottery, players can look really good but just don't develop. There are a lot of early draft picks that have failed to actually live up to their potential. 

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18 hours ago, Deecisive said:

I suspect westcoast will trade, they need multiple players to rebuild they cannot afford to waste all their credit on one player.  I would expect them to hold out until the last moment to see what everyone will offer, after all what is the hurry, the longer they hold out the greater chance someone will increase their offer. Also, the AFL would like that drama to play out on TV on draft night.

i have not seen the highly rated no1 player but i would be happy taking our existing picks to the draft. as previously stated it is a lottery, players can look really good but just don't develop. There are a lot of early draft picks that have failed to actually live up to their potential. 

I cant see any deal with picks alone. Im thinking we will offer a player and will end up with reid

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1 minute ago, defuture15 said:

I cant see any deal with picks alone. Im thinking we will offer a player and will end up with reid

Can’t trade players though. You can only do that in the trade period.

Edited by 2021
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Going to be an interesting time this draft.

I feel sure WC will trade the pick,  they need more than one player,  but so do North   very much the same boat.

It will come down to who WC think North will pick and then who will be taken at 4 and 5, then our pick 6. and who might be left at our pick 11

very interesting !

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I believe the next draft rule change will allow a club to swap a player they recently selected for draft picks and even other players during the night. I think its done in the NBA?

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1 hour ago, djr said:

I believe the next draft rule change will allow a club to swap a player they recently selected for draft picks and even other players during the night. I think its done in the NBA?


Yes, it’s a shame because I believe WC would be much more willing to trade pick 1 (Reid) if they had certainty of what would be available to choose from at pick 6 (provided the chips fall the way they want them to).

WC will possibly hold their hand due to the uncertainty, then later rue that decision when the player(s) they wanted are for the taking.

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1 hour ago, rpfc said:

I don’t think our hand is very good.

I wouldn’t give ND1 for ND7, ND 13, FND15.

So just take the best couple of kids you think can help us extend/expand our window.

I am all for the expanded window and if we happened to take Curtin, who knows what the future could look like, if Reid and Curtin both wanted to return home.

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1 hour ago, Redleg said:

I am all for the expanded window and if we happened to take Curtin, who knows what the future could look like, if Reid and Curtin both wanted to return home.

Yes, but even when I say that I know that ND6 through ND15 is an optimistic crapshoot.

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14 hours ago, rpfc said:

Yes, but even when I say that I know that ND6 through ND15 is an optimistic crapshoot.

Always is.

It appears the Roos won’t give up 2 & 3 for 1 and may have privately moved on and will use their multiple first round picks to help their rebuild.

Hawks haven’t got enough to do the deal.

We are an option for WC, but it all depends on Curtin getting to 6. This deal is looking unlikely.

I am now wondering if WC blinks and tells the Roos they will take 2 and a few later first rounders, just to try and maximise 1 and help their rebuild, which is well behind the Roos’.

I think WC needs more for 1 than one Victorian likely star, but with a highly possible go home factor. I am not convinced that is the maximum for the pick and WC needs the maximum.

 

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20 hours ago, rpfc said:

I don’t think our hand is very good.

I wouldn’t give ND1 for ND7, ND 13, FND15.

So just take the best couple of kids you think can help us extend/expand our window.


But it’s not so simple, as there’s more certainty (to a degree) over the names assigned to those picks.

Depending on how WC see the picks falling, it would be Reid for Leake/Curtin/Sanders, O’Sullivan/Caddy/Wilson, and F1 (teams will be predicting/actively willing our impending demise & subsequent fall up the order).

And WC need weight of numbers more than they need pure talent consolidated into 1 player. Recent history shows what can happen with such a player anchored to the bottom of the ladder in JHF (granted there is a gulf between North & WC financially/historically, but WC appear to have their fate sealed in terms of ladder range by virtue of their list composition).

I think our hope of getting pick 1 is linked to WC’s appetite for more than one of these players.

But North may yet trump us as RL has pointed out, if they are considering being better off with one of the players left at pick 2, then taking some late R1 free hits with it.

Edited by Mach5
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5 minutes ago, Mach5 said:


But it’s not so simple, as there’s more certainty (to a degree) over the names assigned to those picks.

Depending on how WC see the picks falling, it would be Reid for Leake/Curtin/Sanders, O’Sullivan/Caddy/Wilson, and F1 (teams will be predicting/actively willing our impending demise & subsequent fall up the order).

And WC need weight of numbers more than they need pure talent consolidated into 1 player. Recent history shows what can happen with such a player anchored to the bottom of the ladder in JHF (granted there is a gulf between North & WC financially/historically, but WC appear to have their fate sealed in terms of ladder range by virtue of their list composition).

I think our hope of getting pick 1 is linked to WC’s appetite for more than one of these players.

But North may yet trump us as RL has pointed out, if they are considering being better of with one of the players left at pick 2, then taking some late R1 free hits with it.

Agreed - our chances of securing pick 1 hinge on how West Coast rates the players in our range 

If they could get Curtin with pick 6 and  one of O’Sullivan/Wilson/Leake/Windsor with pick 11 - they might think that’s worth it alongside our future first 

But equally they might just think the gulf between Reid and these players is too big, or even the gap between McKercher or Duursma and these players (and if that case they’d prefer North’s offer of pick 2 and the late first rounders)

I also think a lot hinges on how they view Curtin - let’s say they think he’s a top 3 or 4 prospect but through intel think they can get him at pick 6, then our offer would actually be better than it seems because we’d be guaranteeing them a top 3 or 4 player with 6, and 11 and a future first would be better than North’s late first rounders 

Of course their interest in Curtin could be overblown, but nonetheless if it was the case it’s a pathway to pick 1 for us… albeit an unlikely one

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What about:

Melb give 6 and 11, receive 3

North give 2 and 11, get 1 and 6

WC give 1, receive 2 and 11

 

North get Reid and Caddy, WC get Whoever they want at 2 (Curtin or Duursma), Dees get Duursma/McKercher/Watson/Whoever.

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3 minutes ago, Mickey said:

What about:

Melb give 6 and 11, receive 3

North give 2 and 11, get 1 and 6

WC give 1, receive 2 and 11

 

North get Reid and Caddy, WC get Whoever they want at 2 (Curtin or Duursma), Dees get Duursma/McKercher/Watson/Whoever.

We need to get 2 to make sure we get our player.

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36 minutes ago, samcantstandya said:

Why not tempt North with 6 & 11 for 2 and let WCE know we'll pick Curtin if they pick Reid. Otherwise WCE we take Duursma/McKercher etc....

I’d we did this, we would end up with Curtain and lose a player, giving away pick 11.

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