PODCAST: QF vs Collingwood

[D4Life 2,301]

Part 1:

While there is massive carry on over losing, a few observations:

- Pies generally cleaner with the ball and get better entries as often on the break into clear forward line, also Sidebottom excellent passes were a highlight in the fast half for Pies ☹️

- Demons not as clean with ball, lots of entries into crowded forward line, but we still had multiple shot on goal where we should have done better, probably left 18 points slip in Q4 alone

- Brayshaw being taken out, unsettled Demons in 1st quarter and also hurt us for rest of game

So only losing by 7 points is frustrating but we can beat the Pies!

Re the forward line misfiring, losing BBB, Petty and Melksham or equivalent is going to damage any forward connection! Add in TMac and Fritsch injuries just hurts each players form coming back. Fritsch kicks his shank from 40, like he normally would and I think we go onto win the game!

JVR out, creates opportunity to bring Grundy in! I would ruck him 80% first half, Max at FF in goal square Pickett or Chandler next to him, and let Fritsch go we’re he wants to in forward line and every other for more on 50 metre arc or higher! One defender on Max won’t cut it, so the extra defender going to Max, leaves a free player, who must then go to space! If not working at half time move Max into ruck 80% and flip around! 

Your thoughts on Max one out in the square, ideally with Kossie?

Part 2:

Defensively as McKay is likely out, bring in Turner, Lever plays miles better with extra tall. Also with Rivers, McVee, Bowey, Hibberd and Salem we can cover Carlton small options and revert to only two talks in the backline if required! Agree or disagree?

Ins/Outs
JVR - Grundy (reasoning above)

Brayshaw - Jordon (most like for like available)

Laurie - Turner (Laurie unsighted, Turner helps Lever)

Sub - TMac (Forward line was too tall and didn’t take enough marks last week, so TMac, JVR and Smith 3 talls replaced with Max/Grundy and Smith) Smith or Grundy not working bring in TMac mid/late 3rd qtr! Thoughts ?

Effectively Forward:

Max FF deep trying for one out

Smith CHF playing high 

Thanks for the podcast, you guys are terrific!

[DEE32 61]

No question just wish this podcast could be brought forward a couple of days. The MFCSs is biting hard after that loss now with no Gus, no Roo, a,b,c and D options taken from Forward line! Need some positive Binners and George insights to bring the mood back up! 

[Surfer Dee 210]

I'm something of a stats man ala Binman. I believe that, overtime, statistical dominance in key areas of the game translates to scoreboard dominance.

 However, the Dees have an issue. I believe that we lose more games when the expected score predicts that we should have won than any other team. I wish I had access to the predicted score database over the last few years because I would like quantify that statement but I'd be surprised if it's not the case. 

So, I now believe that there's something more intangible going on that the stats aren't telling us. I feel like we're the reverse Collingwood. We lose when we should win and they win when they should lose. 
 

So what's going on? I feel like there's something in our gameplan more significant than straight kicking. Our mistakes often cost us easy goals. Our full ground defensive web takes a huge amount of effort and I'm worried that it leaves us spread out too thin to run in waves on the turnover. It feels like the goals we concede are easy goals, where as ours are the result of brutally hard efforts and contest work. Teams seem content to play the game in our forward half, causing congestion and basically forcing us to kick stoppage goals.

I'd love your thoughts on this. 

I feel like we're good enough to beat any team but we make everything harder than it needs to be. This is why these losses are so frustrating.

 

 

[Spit Demon 58]

On 9/8/2023 at 10:42 PM, sam6172 said:

I'll keep it short and ask the question that is really the only one that matters. Can we beat Carlton with the team we have?

Thanks guys.

Yes. If we play like we did against Collingwood and kick straight this time, should be good enough to win comfortably.

 

[At the break of Gawn 3,519]

I’ve just finished watching the replay. It wasn’t as obvious to me at the ground, but I think the main part of the reason we lost is the coaches didn’t anticipate some of the structural changes Collingwood implemented behind the ball. They held their defenders (particularly Moore and IQ) very deep. Perhaps it was the absence of Murphy/Moore for a few weeks but Collingwood were pressing too high the last few weeks and were leaking goals out the back. They clearly worked on that during the bye. Even when our players created a forward half turn-over, Moore was always there in our D50. Our coaches were too slow to react to this and I didn’t think any meaningful action was done to bring their defence higher. Perhaps bringing up JVR, Smith and McDonald higher up the ground, isolating Kozzy. Even isolating Trac if that was an option. Collingwood were successful isolating Elliott but unfortunately for them he couldn’t kick straight and Hibberd was huge.

I agree at times we bombed it in and didn’t try and bring up the Pies defenders, but I think one thing we’re overlooking is the smart and strategic coaching by Collingwood to hold their defenders back. They were excellent and we failed to adjust.

So my question to Binman/George is this:

If Carlton employ a similar tactic and hold Weitering really deep, what can our forwards and mids do? When Carlton has their defence set, do we kick around and chip the ball to bring forward their defence? Isolate Petracca and encourage the other forwards to get higher? I felt we had near to none genuine one-on-ones on Thursday.

I haven’t watched the second half of the Swans v Blues game in detail, but I’m keen to see how Sydney got really good looks against the Carlton defence.

[FreedFromKysaiah 29]

Hi gents, like many others on Demonland, watching us fall behind early against the Pies made me want to comb my hair with a potato peeler. 
 

It seems we often take a while to get going. How do you fix slow starts? Is it even possible, or is the Dees’ propensity to play from behind just one of those mysteries of the universe? 

if we concede the first 3 to the Blues I’ll have an outer body experience from which I may never recover.

thanks in advance 

Edited September 10, 2023 by FreedFromKysaiah

[monoccular 16,096]

OMG - where do we start?  

Obviously the cause of most of our losses has been, and remains, our forward line and mid-forward connection, such as it is.

What is the point, George, of us winning "expected score" week after week - it is the actual score that we, and the football world at large,  care about.   The Demons' inability to convert has become ingrained as the hallmark of this squad; players, coaches and maybe even recruiters.      100%, and it frustrates the bejeezus out of most of us fans.

Bomb it long to a huge pack, when we don't have any pack marking forwards!   What could be more insane.  Wouldn't it be better to bomb it long (if they must) into  any semi-empty space and at least have an opportunity for a crumber to crumb?    Or to spear it into space or even a contest low?

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, (especially when it clearly doesn't work)  and expecting a different result.   

If you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you always got.

Thinking ahead to the off season, (hopefully >3 weeks away) surely the club must get a new and different thinking forward coach.

What are the panel's thoughts on replacing JVR?  Some on this board have suggested Disco Turner.  I am unaware if he has ever played or even trained with the forwards.  Would "trying him out" in a cutthroat final be sane?  Maybe it would: could it be worse?   My guess would be Schache though I don't in any way enthuse.  Was TMc as bad as many here post?

And of course there is the elephant in the room - Brundy.   Is there any place at all for him?  Desperation all forward - really desperate??  Extra tall mid?????    I am not sure if as sub he would offer sufficient versatility.

Many thanks once again for your hard work and fantastic podcast - even after such a heartbreaking loss your calm analysis (sometimes) helps allay my MFCSS.

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by monoccular

[At the break of Gawn 3,519]

One more question from me, does Goodwin need to instruct the players to use the corridor more? We are ranked 18th from use of the corridor and it’s robbing us opportunities of really good looks. There was a great segment on this on First Crack on Saturday night. I feel this must be tweaked for Friday.

[Nairobi_Demon 315]

I have three questions for the panel:

1. What happened to our pressure?  Finals demand pressure and so does our game style. Can we win with an average pressure of only 176 like last week and without hitting levels of 200 for at least some quarters, and from who and where on the ground do we need more pressure?

2. What was our plan to nullify their rebound off the half-back?  This is critical to the way they play, but our small defensive forwards seemed to be missing in action and our entries into our forward 50 seemed very shallow particularly in the first quarter or so, enabling them to waltz it out of defence and rebound multiple times in the first quarter.  If they hadn't missed some gettable set shots from these rebounds they would have been much further ahead in the first Q.

3. Where's the running in waves that we saw in previous seasons and the faster ball movement we saw at the beginning of this season including our better kicks such as Bowey, Hunter, Salem, etc. taking on the corridor? As ABG pointed out above, there were opportunities to move through the corridor and move the ball more quickly, but we often opted for the safety of moving along the boundary line and slowed down our movements into our forward 50 allowing them plenty of time to setup defensively.  Do you think we lowered our risk profile too much because of the weather which didn't seem to be as wet as predicted earlier in the week?

Really frustrating and emotionally draining game on many levels (I really hope Gus is okay) and thus very much looking forward to your excellent podcast.  And thankfully the weather looks perfect for our game against the Blues!  

Edited September 10, 2023 by Nairobi_Demon

[ElDiablo14 3,124]

Not so much a question but a general thought Gents.

I no longer care if we win or lose this Friday.

All I need to see is the character of this group, first and foremost to stand up for their mate Angus. Second for the proud team I know they are after what they accomplished in 2021.

Please MFC don't start flat like last Thursday. Let's leave it all out on the field!

 

[DeeMee 738]

Why did we sign Schache to another year given even in these dire tall forward times he does not seem to be considered for selection?

[Gawnhub 1]

With plenty of chat around expected score again (we should’ve won by 3 goals), I wanted to ask about another element of our forward line. 
When watching other teams, I’m always amazed at how open their forward lines are and how easily they can get a mark inside 50 compared to us. Richo was mentioning in the commentary our lack of marks inside 50. 
Can we still keep a high number of inside 50s with a more open forward line? I feel that shifting our players outside of the 50 will protect against the rebound game of Carlton and Collingwood, while allowing more space to lead into, hopefully resulting in more marks inside 50. 

[Rascability 20]

Hi Guys,

Looking forward to this one! A few of my thoughts you might want to discuss.  
 

- the Pies fans seem to be mostly angry, aggressive, horrible, disgusting people. Im so happy im not one of them. 
- pristine dry conditions this Friday will be perfect for talls up fwd and down back. 
- Dees ran out the game well against the Pies. Im hoping Blues are out if gas. 

[layzie 28,930]

Does the football media need to be held to a higher standard? In the 24 hr news cycle and Twitterverse have we allowed this to become too much of a free for all where serious issues like concussion and CTE are concerned?

In the Alir and Jones collision we had ex players like Cornes defending medical staff and inadvertently (in my view) playing down the seriousness of this issue.

We've now got ex players saying that Maynard's act was a pure football act and some even suggesting that Brayshaw should have protected himself better. 

Concussion and CTE is a serious health issue that is transcending the expert game knowledge and commentary of ex footballers. I believe these figures have a platform and with that, a responsibility to not provide misinformation and headlines that could influence the public and players at lower levels in a negative way. Does this field and this subject need to be better regulated in the media?

 

[ElDiablo14 3,124]

12 minutes ago, layzie said:

Does the football media need to be held to a higher standard? In the 24 hr news cycle and Twitterverse have we allowed this to become too much of a free for all where serious issues like concussion and CTE are concerned?

In the Alir and Jones collision we had ex players like Cornes defending medical staff and inadvertently (in my view) playing down the seriousness of this issue.

We've now got ex players saying that Maynard's act was a pure football act and some even suggesting that Brayshaw should have protected himself better. 

Concussion and CTE is a serious health issue that is transcending the expert game knowledge and commentary of ex footballers. I believe these figures have a platform and with that, a responsibility to not provide misinformation and headlines that could influence the public and players at lower levels in a negative way. Does this field and this subject need to be better regulated in the media?

 

They are trying to reverse any of the few baby steps the sport was taking to prevent concussion.

I wonder if it's coming from the old boys club who don't want to relinquish their power and how the sport should be played?

[Binmans PA 26,212]

Psychology is a big part of footy and the modern game relies on an ability to work through your emotions. As Goody often claims, you need to be able to 're-set' both in game and from week to week.

I think we'll take care of Carlton, but the main variable, if you like, is the psychological fall out from the QF.

It can go one of two ways. Trac said the players were obviously flat after the game, which was certainly mirrored by the supporter sentiment and my own emotions.

Now, if we use that hurt and flatness, the second chance that we have, it could be the re-set that we need to kick start our way to a 14th flag. Backs against the wall, have to go the toughest route now, like the Bulldogs in 2021, and missing Petty, Melksham, JVR and now Gus (possibly forever). But unlike the Bulldogs in 2021, who IMV we had the measure of that year, if we can get to a Granny against Collingwood, I reckon our guys would be supremely confident and want to make amends.

The alternative, of course, is we are rocked by Gus' likely retirement, we're a little bit banged up ourselves after a bruising QF and Carlton running on emotion like we were in 2018, with the crowd on their side, gets it over us.

IMO, we start the first quarter well, get a small lead and convert all our gettable opportunities, and we won't be beaten.

However, how much do you guys think the psychology of losing the QF and losing Gus will play into the result this week?

[Webber 10,099]

Hey Gents, looking forward to the podcast.

Binman will rightfully point out how he predicted that a poor first quarter, and anything beyond a 3 goal jump would be hard to pull back, and others on Demonland will want an explanation and fix for our forward 50 connection, inefficiency and kicking inaccuracy. 
 

But I reckon you should iterate to all that there’s a bigger elephant in the room. Injuries across a season are the most objectively reliable indicator of success, for any team. Look at just our forward line……long stretches of unavailability for Tmac, Ben Brown, Bailey Fritsch, Harry Petty, and now Jake Melksham. No JVR this week to boot. Our injury stats this year (obviously compared to our flag competitors) simply look like making it a bridge too far. It’s a depressing perspective, I know, but won’t be ignored. It’s the most inconvenient truth in football. 

[whatwhat say what 19,050]

looking forward beyond 2023... with hibberd's impending retirement do you think petty will return from injury forward or back and what will that mean for the balance of the defensive 7 in 2024 and beyond?

[Demonland 65,378]

10 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

looking forward beyond 2023... with hibberd's impending retirement do you think petty will return from injury forward or back and what will that mean for the balance of the defensive 7 in 2024 and beyond?

I think we'll park this one for the post season. We have bigger fish to fry this week.

[Demonland 65,378]

Cutting off the questions here. Got so much to talk about and a lot of prep getting all the questions into the right place. Lot of overlap of issues but we'll try to find a solution that the FD will listen to.

[Its Time for Another 4,054]

Is speed of ball movement the missing key?

The last few games it's really stood out that we are kicking into a far more crowded forward line much more often than the opposition. It appears to be because the dynamic speed of ball movement we had at the beginning of the season has gone enabling opposition teams to get back and choke our forward 50. We seem to consequently have to kick from further out and on more acute angles or attempt snaps closer in under great pressure which has led to our goal kicking accuracy dropping off a cliff. 

It was clear at the beginning of the season that our speed of ball movement had improved significantly and after a summer of goal kicking practice and shots closer to goal our accuracy went through the roof. Do you agree this is a key issue and can we fix them in time. 

Just saw you've cut off questions while I was typing. Second week in a row I've been too late. 

Edited September 11, 2023 by Its Time for Another

[ElDiablo14 3,124]

3 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Cutting off the questions here. Got so much to talk about and a lot of prep getting all the questions into the right place. Lot of overlap of issues but we'll try to find a solution that the FD will listen to.

Yes Andy, do tell Goody and his team; if you want to win, Demonlad the podcast listen you must.

[Demonland 65,378]

47 minutes ago, Its Time for Another said:

Is speed of ball movement the missing key?

The last few games it's really stood out that we are kicking into a far more crowded forward line much more often than the opposition. It appears to be because the dynamic speed of ball movement we had at the beginning of the season has gone enabling opposition teams to get back and choke our forward 50. We seem to consequently have to kick from further out and on more acute angles or attempt snaps closer in under great pressure which has led to our goal kicking accuracy dropping off a cliff. 

It was clear at the beginning of the season that our speed of ball movement had improved significantly and after a summer of goal kicking practice and shots closer to goal our accuracy went through the roof. Do you agree this is a key issue and can we fix them in time. 

Just saw you've cut off questions while I was typing. Second week in a row I've been too late. 

I'll squeeze it in with a similar question.

I have to have a cut off time in order to prep and make the questions flow.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,239]

Hey Andy, George & Binman.

 

Left a few vmails, fair to say I’m on edge & have gone through a gambit of emotive states in the preceding days but I’ve somehow ultimately landed in a good, super confident space!

 

Lose this week and we become the FIRST team, since the year 2000 — To go out in straight sets in consecutive years. This is something that even a premiership will struggle to change, straighten, course-correct — which for me is another reason why this simply WONT happen. Melbourne FC are the best side in it, this isn’t a debate it’s fact. I’m convinced we will show that this week & for the masses worrying about selection this week, it actually matters little which way we go, as the 22nd player won’t win this game, topline talent/skill will, which is also why we’re the best team in it! Our defence will stand-up again, Max will dominate, Clarry will explode & Trac will do Trac things to lead us to victory. Personally I think Jordan will come in 

I wanted to write as yet again, like a big barramundi strutting through a muddy river, biting at every bit of lure and bait that’s bobbing about the place despite knowing full well what it represents, and that it’s there to entice and trap me, to make me click it, to sell clicks and more clicks.. but seriously, what a crock.

To see that absolute douchecanue Damian Barrett and Lloyd say on AFL.Com that “we’ve been figured out” — is just manifestly, grossly & abhorrently incorrect & incongruously false in every single way. We had an expected score of a 4 goal WIN, HOW does that have ANYTHING to do with being figured out??? Can anyone tell me why Barrett writes this verbal fecal-matter on a consistent basis?

How does player’s inability to convert correlate to being figured out? 

My query gents, is am I having some sort of reverse MFCSS and can’t see the writing painted in scarlet red on the white gyprocked wall? Am I delusional? I have no idea why I’m so fired up, but I need some leveller here… Are we the biggest flop and false-flag I’m the smart 23yrs? It cannot be, right? I’m right surely… I have no doubts we’re taking on the pies come GF day, I felt it right when Jack and May-blow-hard were jumper shoving & those invalid fools were chanting “Cooollingwooood” whilst our Gus laid lifeless in the middle of the G’ for a full 120s…

WE WILL HAVE OUR VENGEANCE!!! Right?

 

#itisgonnabeonglongweek & yet I still absolutely love it 🙌🙌🙌

 

Lordy, sorry Andy in the throes of typing I again missed your cut-off — must’ve been a big week of Q’s for a 3pm cut, no surprise there 😂😂😂

 

Have a great shows guys, as always. It’s gonna be a big week — can’t wait 🔴🔵

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by Nudge

[3183 Dee 2,608]

On 9/8/2023 at 10:42 PM, sam6172 said:

I'll keep it short and ask the question that is really the only one that matters. Can we beat Carlton with the team we have?

Thanks guys.

I echo @sam6172 - feeling pretty flat still: the media have written us off and not many give us a chance with our decimated forward line. What tricks could or should be pulled out of the bag, to be get us over a Carlton side that will be feeling very confident? It feels like when we played the Hawks in 2018 - except this time, we are the Hawks 😭