Dees Potential Draft Play to Secure Pick #1

[beelzebub 23,383]

6 minutes ago, Jontee said:

i thought it was you trade in needs but you draft talent...

I got misfuddled..   but youre right.. you trade for whats actually useful...   you draft ....currency.

Well done  😉

[Hawny for Gawny 461]

We are at the point where I don't really think that 1 X-Factor player is going to make the difference. We have those players (Trac, Clarry etc.) but what I think we need is to gear up to replace some older guys and strengthen the 10-21 ranked guys. We have some older Key position players like May who in a couple of years will be gone. If we can take a Geelong approach and just have very solid players at most every position we will challenge for years, obviously if a Jeremy Cameron type came up I'd rather sell the farm for that.

[dazzledavey36 55,360]

Ryley Sanders is a big watch for me.

[Roost it far 8,622]

22 minutes ago, Hawny for Gawny said:

We are at the point where I don't really think that 1 X-Factor player is going to make the difference. We have those players (Trac, Clarry etc.) but what I think we need is to gear up to replace some older guys and strengthen the 10-21 ranked guys. We have some older Key position players like May who in a couple of years will be gone. If we can take a Geelong approach and just have very solid players at most every position we will challenge for years, obviously if a Jeremy Cameron type came up I'd rather sell the farm for that.

All good points but why would you replace 3 10-21 types when you can add one of the best kids in the draft? Petracca  gives us more than ANB, Spargo and Bowey combined. They’re all replaceable Trac isn’t. You watch Trac tomorrow, I’ll put my house on him being BOG. None of the other 3 will do or can do what he can and will do. If a top 3 pick is gettable then go to it.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Roost it far

[Roost it far 8,622]

I think people still confuse quantity with quality. We’re not getting May’s replacement from the draft, we need to trade him in. There’s also only around 2 players at each club who can change a game, if you have the chance to add one go do it. 

[Little Goffy 14,645]

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

So if WC come to us and say we’ll take your 3 first round picks for Harley Reid you’d say no thanks?

Imagine JHF running around for us only better. 

Jason Horne-Francis is an interesting example because it is starting to look like might be genuine step up compared to even the rest of his first-round peers in the 2021 draft. (Discounting Nick Daicos as a Father-son)

On the other hand, the 2023 draft is allegedly a very strong draft. If it is going to play out anything like, say, the 2019 draft, or 2013, or 2015,  then we absolutely want as many bites at the first round as we can get.

I'm just too burned by the fact that very rarely is the best player in a draft taken at number 1 - arguably not since Nick Riewoldt - and they are no more likely to be in the top rated handful than any other pick in the top 5. In fact, picks 4 and 5 each have a better 'superstar' strike rate than 1!

Anyway, with the luxury of having the AFL's most effective and efficient drafting team. Since Taylor came on board (counting drafts from 2013 onwards) our entire list of 'misses' from the first two rounds is Weideman (9) and depending on how things pan out with the kids, Laurie (22) and Rosman (34). That's in ten years.

So, I'm putting my opinion together from three facts;

Pick 1 players don't have an outstanding record even from those seriously hyped.

The 2023 draft is generally believed to have very high quality right through the first round.

Our recruiting team is exceptionally good at identifying the genuine quality players available and even targeting them with pick upgrades.

[Roost it far 8,622]

3 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Jason Horne-Francis is an interesting example because it is starting to look like might be genuine step up compared to even the rest of his first-round peers in the 2021 draft. (Discounting Nick Daicos as a Father-son)

On the other hand, the 2023 draft is allegedly a very strong draft. If it is going to play out anything like, say, the 2019 draft, or 2013, or 2015,  then we absolutely want as many bites at the first round as we can get.

I'm just too burned by the fact that very rarely is the best player in a draft taken at number 1 - arguably not since Nick Riewoldt - and they are no more likely to be in the top rated handful than any other pick in the top 5. In fact, picks 4 and 5 each have a better 'superstar' strike rate than 1!

Anyway, with the luxury of having the AFL's most effective and efficient drafting team. Since Taylor came on board (counting drafts from 2013 onwards) our entire list of 'misses' from the first two rounds is Weideman (9) and depending on how things pan out with the kids, Laurie (22) and Rosman (34). That's in ten years.

So, I'm putting my opinion together from three facts;

Pick 1 players don't have an outstanding record even from those seriously hyped.

The 2023 draft is generally believed to have very high quality right through the first round.

Our recruiting team is exceptionally good at identifying the genuine quality players available and even targeting them with pick upgrades.

I too trust in Taylor and you can bet he wants one of the top 3 picks 

[Pennant St Dee 13,305]

6 hours ago, Redleg said:

We have a chance to possibly put all our eggs in one basket and get a seriously good player, OR, have a strong draft hand, to get some very good young players in and maybe solve a few of our problems.

I am in favour of the latter.

 

My preference too, always load up the depth, because with JT and the crop out there they won’t be duds. There’s always so called once in a generation players. 2025 draft already being talked about as a very talented bunch. U/16 championships on the Gold Coast this year will attract a lot of attention and recruiters

[djr 1,597]

Would you trade 2 first round picks plus Rivers for Pick 1? 

[adonski 12,436]

I'd be more inclined to hold Freo's hopeful top 10 pick, then try to upgrade our own 1st rounder to another top 10 pick

2x top 10 picks + Kynan Brown would be a good haul

[Hawny for Gawny 461]

3 hours ago, Roost it far said:

All good points but why would you replace 3 10-21 types when you can add one of the best kids in the draft? Petracca  gives us more than ANB, Spargo and Bowey combined. They’re all replaceable Trac isn’t. You watch Trac tomorrow, I’ll put my house on him being BOG. None of the other 3 will do or can do what he can and will do. If a top 3 pick is gettable then go to it.

I don't think we get it done with three picks, especially with Freo remembering how to play, I get what your saying but also if we have a compromised draft coming up getting a couple guys hitting their peak at that point could do wonders. I also trust the scouting we have done but yeah a petracca is better than a sparrow

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

I'd be more inclined to hold Freo's hopeful top 10 pick, then try to upgrade our own 1st rounder to another top 10 pick

2x top 10 picks + Kynan Brown would be a good haul

Could be. Brown might be matched in the 20s, so might be wise to bundle our 1st and Freo 2nd to move up. Reckon we'll use Freo's 1st (10ish) and a trade up to low teens.

10 + 13 + Kynan Brown

Will be interesting to see if we do something with our future 1st

Edited May 26, 2023 by Stiff Arm

[DEE fence 5,039]

46 minutes ago, djr said:

Would you trade 2 first round picks plus Rivers for Pick 1? 

No Rivers re drafted on form would be a first round pick. I'd want a signed letter from God that pick 1 was going to be Chris Judd or Garry Jr.

[HarpenDee 249]

3 first rounders that can run fast, please

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

3 first rounders for pick 1???

JT would want to be extreeeeeemely confident Reid is a unicorn

Mind you, our three first round picks will not be high end. About 10, 16 in 2023 and next year around 16.

Can't see it happening

[Kent 2,914]

so about now we have 9,15,27,34 guestimate

we are not in the trading mix for higher picks if this continues

[John Demonic 5,850]

On 5/26/2023 at 3:32 PM, HarpenDee said:

3 first rounders that can run fast, please

My world for a Beau McCreery. Has that mixture of explosive speed and frightening aggression. 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by John Demonic

[beelzebub 23,383]

Just alternative thinking.

Do we use our currency to trade in talent ?

That has impact.... you're dealing with known entities. 

Yes some might be available through FA.

There will others you need to horse trade for.

We've gone down the path of hail mary fishing before.....

[drysdale demon 4,837]

22 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Just alternative thinking.

Do we use our currency to trade in talent ?

That has impact.... you're dealing with known entities. 

Yes some might be available through FA.

There will others you need to horse trade for.

We've gone down the path of hail mary fishing before.....

A bit of both perhaps.

[Demon Disciple 12,274]

By end of year we will know if our window remains legitimately open or not. If it does, then I’d be all for trading in quality players (I’d be prepared to jettison some who are on good money for them too - gotta give a little to get a little).

Id be more inclined to draft in youth if our window appears to be closing, just so as to avoid full re-build right at the time Tassie comes in.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

I think it's almost certain to say we'll be trading up to get as many picks inside the top 20 as we can. 

And there'll be plenty of clubs will to trade. GWS and Gold Coast straight up. 

We don't need Harley Reid and we will not waste the sheer amount of picks required for one player when our list needs attention all over. 

If we could land two top 10 picks and something in the ranger off 15-20 then that would be a great launching pad. 

I'd be willing to get aggressive and trade out some NQR'sif it gave us further picks to work with. 

We need a mini reset. Max and May are in the twighlight, Brown and McDonald are cooked. 

We need a key forward, couple of quality mids with attributes that compliment our mid group and another developing key back over the next two drafts. 

Perhaps some of those will come from trades or FA. 

I'd love to target a key forward and some quality midfielders from this draft. 

[Bang Bang Bang 5,839]

I'd be in favour of packaging up our early picks for a pick in the top 5. 

Our flag was built off many factors but LARGELY off Trac and Clarry entering their prime in the midfield. Five years from now, they will both be good players still but most likely starting to slow down. Who will be ready from the current crop to take over? Sparrow and JJ are neat players but not going to be elite, Bowey doesn't look like he'll play mid, Pickett will never play there full time. The cupboard is pretty bare.

You can find elite midfielders outside the top 5 (Zak Butters was pick 12), but they're much easier to find inside the top 5. Trac and Clarry themselves were very early picks. 

I think the club are aware of this and tried to package up some picks for Humphrey last year, but couldn't entice the Bombers to do the trade. I wish they had in hindsight.  

[Neil Crompton 5,660]

Haha Keep playing the way we currently are and we could end up challenging for the number 1 draft pick after all.

[manny100 1,595]

I would rather keep our 1st rounder, Freo's 1st rounder and trade our 2024 1st rounder plus a 2023 2nd rounder and maybe Freo's 2nd rounder ( plus some thing back) for the GC pick will likely come on the market as Jed Walters their Academy pick is likely to attract a bid in the 1st 6.

We may be able to trade higher but its likely Jason and his team will have identified serious 1st round talent.

2024 with TMc, B Brown and Tomlinson out of contract we may be able to attract a suitable free agent next year.

Basically a 2 year mini top up of 1st round talent plus a free agent.

Inner Sanctum April 2023 draft rankings.

2023 AFL Draft Rankings: April Edition (theinnersanctum.com.au)

 

 

 

 

[ChaserJ 5,157]

Worth bearing in mind that Himmelberg & McKay could attract compensation picks inside the top 10. That could either work to create more opportunity or lead to the complete opposite.

At least we have some chips to play with and agree with other that Reid is far from the only player worth snaking up the ladder for. 

Edited May 29, 2023 by ChaserJ
Himmelberg...I meant Himmelberg!