2 hours ago, Wylie D said:

The season remains a mystery in terms of predicting what Melbourne will do

 We will be playing at a high standard, given the teams we are matched up against, and that we are a good team.

The others have to play well against us to beat us.

Hard games will hone our skills and game plan.

Expect and predict we finish the home and away strongly.

13 hours ago, Seraph said:

TF are you talking about, he took one step and got tackled yet apparently that's HTB?

Umpiring went one way in the last quarter, I swear I saw multiple instances where we'd get tackled and dispose of it yet they'd call HTB prior to a handball or kick. Yet Dogs players can have all day and eventually throw it out - play on.

Just garbage.

That's the rule isn't it?

Soon as he grabbed the ball he opened himself up to being pinged, we just needed to get it forward at all costs. It was stupid.

Letting Dale do as he pleased with Daniel out was an intriguing bit of coaching 

26 minutes ago, Scipio said:

That's the rule isn't it?

Soon as he grabbed the ball he opened himself up to being pinged, we just needed to get it forward at all costs. It was stupid.

If you're talking about the Gawn one then no. They changed the rule a couple of years back, grabbing it out of the ruck is no longer automatic prior opportunity. The umpire just made the rule up on the spot.

Edited July 24, 20223 yr by Dr. Gonzo

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If you're talking about the Gawn one then no. They changed the rule a couple of years back, grabbing it out of the ruck is no longer automatic prior opportunity. The umpire just made the rule up on the spot.

Okay my bad then, thanks for clarifying. I still think it was dumb though, he literally grabbed it and ran into the midst of like three Doggies players... and with the umpiring as it was anything could have happened.

3 minutes ago, Scipio said:

Okay my bad then, thanks for clarifying. I still think it was dumb though, he literally grabbed it and ran into the midst of like three Doggies players... and with the umpiring as it was anything could have happened.

Given the Dogs were in front then there was only one way they were going to decide.

Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda. 3 critical mistakes- May’s lazy disposal, Fritter and ANB and the Kozzie missed set shot. We let this one get away.

2 hours ago, binman said:

It really isn't 

In fact i predicted this very pattern ie we will struggle between round 11 and round 19.

I even predicted in the game day thread how this game would pan out, And bar the final result, I got it right (i had us just holding off the late surge).  

As you note, we have clearly not been running out games in the ladt two months. That is obvious- to both the eye and the numbers

Some posters are now starting to try and explain that by suggesting we are not fit enough, inferring Griffith has not been as effective as Burgess, even though the pattern of the seson has almost been identical.

And perhaps they are correct. 

If they are, then this season is toast. If we are not fit enough now, there is zero chance we are going to be fit enough, relative to the other premiership contenders, come finals. 

But, fortunately they are in all likelihood wrong.

Believe it, or dont belive it. But i have zero doubt, just like last season, are fatgued because of the loading phase. 

And we will see as soon as next week whether I'm right.

If we are not fit enough, there is no chance we stick with freo, one of the fittest sides in tbe AFL.

But i predict we will come and apply sustained pressure all game. We will be energised and 'running on top of the ground'

And we will be too strong and too much for freo to handle. Freo will simply not be able to go with us.

The supposed fitness issues won't get mentioned again for the rest of tbe seaon.

And the turn around won't be because we - insert your favourite magic bullet here (my favourite is found our 'hunger'). It will because we are in the tapering phase of our periodisation program.

In the last couple of months we have been at our mid climb camp tinkering with our equipment and getting our preparation right for the push to the summit.  

That push starts next week.

Go redlegs.

 

 

So you are quadrupling down on this Friday night being the releasing of the decisive ‘loading shackles?’

Like I thought we agreed last week - there are other factors to why we cannot seem to lift to near the same level of pressure in our forward half or why we are not winning the territory battle and playing a lot of the game on our back half.

We may win next week, we may lose - but this curse that lasts 9 of the 22 rounds is either a red herring to one’s fortunes and a short revealer of form around the bye, or it is the arbiter of a season and one we have not been able to handle at all in 2021 or 2022. We won’t always go undefeated in the first two and a half months and we are destined to be also rans of this loading ‘curse’ continues into the future.

I obviously think it’s the former, but the latter is the most concerning - and if you are right - then perhaps Griffith and the FD have their planning wrong if we are this troubled for 40% of the season.

Fork in the road time. Will Melbourne take the learnings from last night and get it back on track or have we now been worked out and ready to fizzle like so many other reigning premiers before us? Long month ahead..

I was disappointed with last nights result to but then I thought to myself, hey stupid I would rather have won the GF last yr than win a rd19 match this season. Then I was feeling better about the situation 👍🏆

Its not all doom and gloom peeps. 

I was at the game last night and it was clear from the second half that they were going to win. They started to dominate clearance and started to win the territory battle. We have been poor most of the year from transitioning out of our d50 which is why clearances are our most important stat because it allows us to generate high inside 50s and repeat entries.

We only stayed afloat in the 2nd half from a few plucky centre clearance goals and that’s it. This game was so similar to the Collingwood game it isn’t funny. Once they started to dominate territory it was only a matter of time before the damn wall broke and they started converting. Exactly like the Pies did on QB.

A few other key take outs from me:

- The Dogs play Marvel really well and they move the ball very quickly there which allows them to play a shoot out sort of game. Their defence isn’t good enough to hold good teams back so a shoot out is there strength. We as a team are poor against teams that move the ball so quickly because we don’t get enough time to structure up properly. That’s why clearances and territory is so important for us.

- The Dogs are the best clearance side in the AFL. It’s not a surprise to me that we lost clearances. 

- The dogs are a good side. They’ve turned the corner a bit and have pretty much a full strength side. Bont going back into the middle  and pushing Treloar to half back has been pivotal for them. I expect them to finish in the top 8, and we know they can win it from anywhere.

-No Lever really stuffed up some of our structure behind the ball.

- A little bit like the Geelong game, that result is a bit of an anomaly for us. We don’t let teams score like that. I’m sure we’ll fix that up next week. 

- I’m actually thrilled our forward line is humming a bit. Yes we only scored 30 points in the second half, but we had pretty limited opportunities due to the dogs locking it in.

- Oliver and Petracca lowered the colours a bit. I expect a huge response next week across the board.

- We will beat Freo next week. They are poor at moving the ball, they’re a slow ball moving side and our smallish forward line will trouble them. Lobb likely out, Fyfe is out and we’re playing at arguably one of our favourite venues.

- I wouldn’t bring Ben Brown back next week. I think Weid is a better match up for Pierce/Ryan.

- And finally… we can still miss the 8. If we lose all our remaining games, Dogs win all of their games and Richmond win all of their games then we finish 9th. (I’ll probably be barracking for Geelong next week to knock off the dogs)

Edited July 24, 20223 yr by At the break of Gawn

2 hours ago, binman said:

It really isn't 

In fact i predicted this very pattern ie we will struggle between round 11 and round 19.

I even predicted in the game day thread how this game would pan out, And bar the final result, I got it right (i had us just holding off the late surge).  

As you note, we have clearly not been running out games in the ladt two months. That is obvious- to both the eye and the numbers

Some posters are now starting to try and explain that by suggesting we are not fit enough, inferring Griffith has not been as effective as Burgess, even though the pattern of the seson has almost been identical.

And perhaps they are correct. 

If they are, then this season is toast. If we are not fit enough now, there is zero chance we are going to be fit enough, relative to the other premiership contenders, come finals. 

But, fortunately they are in all likelihood wrong.

Believe it, or dont belive it. But i have zero doubt, just like last season, are fatgued because of the loading phase. 

And we will see as soon as next week whether I'm right.

If we are not fit enough, there is no chance we stick with freo, one of the fittest sides in tbe AFL.

But i predict we will come and apply sustained pressure all game. We will be energised and 'running on top of the ground'

And we will be too strong and too much for freo to handle. Freo will simply not be able to go with us.

The supposed fitness issues won't get mentioned again for the rest of tbe seaon.

And the turn around won't be because we - insert your favourite magic bullet here (my favourite is found our 'hunger'). It will because we are in the tapering phase of our periodisation program.

In the last couple of months we have been at our mid climb camp tinkering with our equipment and getting our preparation right for the push to the summit.  

That push starts next week.

Go redlegs.

 

 

Interesting as always bin.

What sort of and how much training are the players likely to undertake this week given the short break and travel?

As I have noted before, the premiership betting market is the best predictor of the PROBABLE flag winner.

That's because the market reflects the opinion of thousands of people who aren't just spit balling, they are staking real money on that opinion.

The bigger the pool, the more accurate it is. And the flag betting pool is in the many millions accross the various bookies.

After this corresponding game last season (a loss where, like last night our defence didn't work, giving up 85 points in wet and slippery conditions) we drifted out to $5.50 to win the flag (odds I jumped on because they were way, way overs - not that you'd thought so if you read dl).

Many would assume we would have drifted again after last night's loss, and, judging by the tenor of this thread, would consider it ridiculous for us to be one of the favourites to win the flag.

The professional punters, who shape the market, not the $20 punters, have learned their lesson from last year - and have also cooled on freo big time.

As a result, we didn't drift at all after last night's loss and remain at 3.50 to win the flag - only shaded by the cats, who are at 3.25 to win the flag.

Which is unfortunate for me as I'd hoped to get at least $4 for the dees to win the flag.

By the by  I highlighted probable because it is an important principle in terms of predicting outcomes.

In my assessment, the 'true' odds of the dees winning the flag is about $3.00 (so $3.50 is overs in my assessment, but not enough value at this point in the season to bother taking) and I'd mark the cats as second favourite, with their true odds being $4.50 (well unders then)

On that assement, we are clear favourites.

But even at $3, if you play out the season from this point 10 times, we only win aprox 3.3 times.

So even as $3 favourites, the probable outcome is we 'fail' to win the flag aprox 67% more often than we win it

So on my odds (which is about the same odds the bookies have the cats at atm) we are aprox a 33% chance of winning the flag and therefore 67% chance of not winning it

I think we are the most likely winner of this year's flag, but im fully cognisant of tbe fact that on the balance of probabilities, we won't.

 

Edited July 24, 20223 yr by binman

Stoppage clearances last 3 games 62 to 97 against. We are getting murdered here and shows why we are struggling to move the ball. We can’t get our hands on it. 

15 hours ago, deegirl said:

At half time a bloke four rows in front of me power spewed like I’ve never seen. It was a preview of the result 😂

Thought Gawn had a very average night & Jackson a shocker. Which equaled English dominating. 

The short break off the Alice trip didn’t help, in the last we struggled to get enough men to match them around the contests, felt like they always had one extra. 
 

Our second tier blokes were not good. 
 

Not sure why we’re complaining about the umpires, I was sitting on the Footscray wing & according to those specimens they were being robbed 😂

Yep, it's interesting isn't? I was sitting on the wing too. I thought both teams had iffy free kicks that were let go or paid. Bulldogs perhaps more so, but the rest of my family sat down the Melbourne end and they were convinced the umpiring played a huge part in the result. 

If we had the red carpet treatment the bulldogs get we’d probably be undefeated this year. Last night hurts because we played so well and the boys didn’t get reward because the umpires stepped in. As a lifelong AFL fan, it really makes me sick. I question whether I even want to keep watching. Then I think to myself - it’s not MFC fault the umps do what they do. As a club, we need to double down on playing the game despite what the umpires are evidently trying to do. It gets taxing for the players mentally, but there is no other solution.  The game is becoming mentally taxing for everyone to be involved in.

29 minutes ago, binman said:

As I have noted before, the premiership betting market is the best predictor of the PROBABLE flag winner.

That's because the market reflects the opinion of thousands of people who aren't just spit balling, they are staking real money on that opinion.

The bigger the pool, the more accurate it is. And the flag betting pool is in the many millions accross the various bookies.

After this corresponding game last season (a loss where, like last night our defence didn't work, giving up 85 points in wet and slippery conditions) we drifted out to $5.50 to win the flag (odds I jumped on because they were way, way overs - not that you'd thought so if you read dl).

Many would assume we would have drifted again after last night's loss, and, judging by the tenor of this thread, would consider it ridiculous for us to be one of the favourites to win the flag.

The professional punters, who shape the market, not the $20 punters, have learned their lesson from last year - and have also cooled on freo big time.

As a result, we didn't drift at all after last night's loss and remain at 3.50 to win the flag - only shaded by the cats, who are at 3.25 to win the flag.

Which is unfortunate for me as I'd hoped to get at least $4 for the dees to win the flag.

By the by  I highlighted probable because it is an important principle in terms of predicting outcomes.

In my assessment, the 'true' odds of the dees winning the flag is about $3.00 (so $3.50 is overs in my assessment, but not enough value at this point in the season to bother taking) and I'd mark the cats as second favourite, with their true odds being $4.50 (well unders then)

On that assement, we are clear favourites.

But even at $3, if you play out the season from this point 10 times, we only win aprox 3.3 times.

So even as $3 favourites, the probable outcome is we 'fail' to win the flag aprox 67% more often than we win it

So on my odds (which is about the same odds the bookies have the cats at atm) we are aprox a 33% chance of winning the flag and therefore 67% chance of not winning it

I think we are the most likely winner of this year's flag, but im fully cognisant of tbe fact that on the balance of probabilities, we won't.

 

Surely you are the most optimistic supporter on here @binman - I need to see us win the next three before I’m thinking about b2b.

Interesting read to see how everyone was thinking at the exact same point this time last year.

23 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

Stoppage clearances last 3 games 62 to 97 against. We are getting murdered here and shows why we are struggling to move the ball. We can’t get our hands on it. 

Good stats. These are complete outliers in our game for the last 5 years. Very unusual. I expect it to turn in the coming weeks.

1 hour ago, chook fowler said:

Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda. 3 critical mistakes- May’s lazy disposal, Fritter and ANB and the Kozzie missed set shot. We let this one get away.

Agree,

As much as i hate to say it, credit to the dogs, they played well.

Oliver, Gawn and Tracc were all down on influence on the game, regardless of what actually happened their better players had a better run.

Dale, Treloar, Bont and Smith cut us up when it counted.

And with how badly we played in teh 2nd half, we still should have won.

Edited July 24, 20223 yr by COVID Dan

I watched the game from home last night and totally enjoyed the first half, goals came so easy for both sides and I was surprised by the lack of pressure. That changed during the third and although Dogs appeared to be the better side we worked harder and stayed in the game but our goals started to dry up. Both sides were looking a bit tired by the end of the 3rd but we were hanging in the game. I never thought that we were going to lose but a few unforced errors, missed opportunities and umps decisions really started to cost us whenever we looked like gaining some momentum and at the half way mark of the last I could see the cracks appearing, even when they hit the front we still had time to get it back then U - H goaled and that was it. 10 points down game over.😢😪

20 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Surely you are the most optimistic supporter on here @binman - I need to see us win the next three before I’m thinking about b2b.

One person's optimist, is another's realist.

7 minutes ago, A F said:

Good stats. These are complete outliers in our game for the last 5 years. Very unusual. I expect it to turn in the coming weeks.

Why would you expect it to turn in the coming weeks? Our biggest problem this year has been winning stoppage clearances. We have only won clearances 8 times in 18 games this year - and guess what, we won every game. If we don’t win clearances we only win 50% of the time. This to me is the major difference between us this year and us last year. And why I have no confidence in our premiership chances this year. So please tell me how this is going to turn in the coming weeks, so I can believe again.

Seems no one can agree as to who was playing on JUH so here's a thought, once he's kicked a couple tighten the [censored] up 

One thing that has been evident over the past 6 odd weeks, we are fumbling a lot.  As soon as real pressure comes one we aren't clean.

Foot skills, James Harmes is the most frustrating player by foot, you never know what you get.  The kick forward that all he had to do was kick 30m in front of either Melksham or Pickett for a certain goal was the turning point last night.  Add in Petracca, Oliver and Viney our midfield kicking isn't great.