The Run Home

[old55 23,687]

25 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Odds schmods

What were the odds of North beating Richmond? $7.00?

What are the odds of Sportsbet going broke because they get it wrong more of the time?

[Dr. Gonzo 24,274]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

With regards to us missing the finals, I checked the odds on TAB and they don't have us listed in that particular market.

Collingwood are the least favourite at $15. 

 

 

We are paying $1.005 on Sportsbet to make the finals FWIW

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,938]

If Richmond lose to Brisbane on Sunday, we'll ostensibly be playing finals footy in 2022 even if we go 0-4 from here.

The best Richmond could go in that scenario would be 12-9-1 and I simply cannot entertain the notion of St Kilda beating all of Hawthorn, Geelong (away), Brisbane or Sydney.

Get you party poppers, balloons and champagne handy at 6pm Sunday.

 

 

[layzie 33,990]

4 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If Richmond lose to Brisbane on Sunday, we'll ostensibly be playing finals footy in 2022 even if we go 0-4 from here.

The best Richmond could go in that scenario would be 12-9-1 and I simply cannot entertain the notion of St Kilda beating all of Hawthorn, Geelong (away), Brisbane or Sydney.

Get you party poppers, balloons and champagne handy at 6pm Sunday.

 

 

Just in time for the 'Loading end party'

[Lucifers Hero 40,329]

3 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

No decision will be made until our season is over, which I believe a fair few posters have mentioned now. Richo talks about it here (about 5:30 in).

 

At the 2.30min mark Richardson talks about our mid season slump.

He mentions 'owning part of it' but is also open that part of it was Freo, Sydney and Coll succeed with a bunch of different things.

[Dee Zephyr 19,268]

 Brisbane needs to win by about 88 points to jump us and go second this week…yeah nah.

Pies need to win by about 653 points to jump us…the way their luck is going at the moment I’d say that’s a chance.

The Swans worry me.

[Deenooos_ 647]

I had a look at the ladder predictor and top 2 is pretty much guaranteed if we go 2-1 from here.

The only way we don't finish top 2 is if Brisbane beat Richmond this weekend and we lose to Brisbane in round 23, and if Collingwood win all their remaining games against: Port, Melb, Carl and Sydney. It is highly unlikely but of course if they somehow manage we fall out of top 2, but I don't see them going on a 13 game win streak. .

I think it is likely Richmond beat Brisbane as their record at the "G" has been pretty poor including their form of late, so that will benefit us if indeed we slip up in round 23. Brisbane have to absolutely belt Carlton and St.Kilda to make up for the percentage gap which of course can also happen but I think Carlton will at least put up a solid fight.

Otherwise any 1 loss to Coll, Carl or Bris won't see us miss a home QF.

The chances are looking quite good, Let's goooo!

Edited July 29, 2022 by Deenooos_

[Jibroni 5,009]

In a sadistic way I'm hoping the Pies win today as it would set up a massive game next week, and also beat the filth in front of a big crowd.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Jibroni

[Lucifers Hero 40,329]

A nice 3% boost to 131.6% while shaving 5% off Freo to 114.9%.

My conviction about a top 2 finish wobbled a little last week after the Bulldogs loss last week.

Now firmly back on the finishing top 2 and a series of Home Finals!

[old55 23,687]

We locked in top 8 last night.  We can pretty much lock in top 4 with a win over Collingwood next round.

[titan_uranus 25,042]

3-0 - we finish 1st or 2nd.

2-1 - we will make top 4 unless Sydney go 3-0 and make up the 5% gap. If Brisbane loses to Richmond tomorrow, then Brisbane also has to go 3-0 and make up whatever percentage gap they have over us too.

1-2 - we will make top 4 unless three of the following happen:

• Collingwood goes 3-0 or 2-1
• Brisbane goes 4-0 or 3-1, or 2-2 and makes up the 6% gap
• Sydney goes 3-0, or 2-1 and makes up the 5% gap
• Fremantle goes 3-0

Side watch - Carlton can still miss the finals. They have Brisbane (away), us and Collingwood. If they go 0-3, they'll finish on 12 wins and are a good chance to be overtaken by the Dogs, who have GWS and Hawthorn and so should get to 12 wins as well, and are only 3% behind. Indeed, they could be passed by the Dogs even if they go 1-2, if the Dogs beat Fremantle next week. If they go 0-3, they're also a chance of being passed by Richmond, who would need 3 wins from Brisbane, Port, Hawthorn and Essendon.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,274]

If Carlton miss finals that would be just exquisite. Lions at the Gabba, us then the Pies in a potential "elimination final". Would be so good to see them flop.

[PaulRB 6,411]

Carlton miss would be exquisite.

Edited July 30, 2022 by PaulRB

[dl4e 5,851]

I am still taking it a week at a time. My MFCSS is on full alert for next Friday against the filth.

[Sir Why You Little 37,121]

Carlton v Collingwood Round 23?

[rpfc 28,754]

14 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Carlton v Collingwood Round 23?

Is that a rhetorical question?

[one_demon 826]

Looks like Geelong will be premiers 

[rpfc 28,754]

5 minutes ago, one_demon said:

Looks like Geelong will be premiers 

Minor

[Mr Steve 3,820]

I still believe Melbourne might be minor premiers. Cats drop one game we will get them. 

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,862]

17 minutes ago, one_demon said:

Looks like Geelong will be premiers 

Wot?

[layzie 33,990]

9 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Carlton v Collingwood Round 23?

I'd go just to see the look on their stupid faces 

Edited July 30, 2022 by layzie

[Anti-Saint 245]

when did we play The Filth in a "big match" like we are this Friday?

"Big match" would be a final - and I don't think we have played The Filth since 1964?, or playing a HnA match which means making a play for the finals or avoiding the wooden spoon.

So, I go back to 1976 to Bogan Park when we had to win to make the finals for the first time since 64 and The Filth had to win to avoid its first-ever wooden spoon.

It was even sweeter when we fixed up The Filth in 1976 18.20-128 ti 17.11-113 with Carman, Phil kicking 7 spectacular goals for The Filth (Carmen finished when we got him) and Biffin, Ray kicking 4 for us.

As The Filthstorian (that's a Filth historian) recalls:

"In 1976, Collingwood finished last for the first time in its history under coach Murray Weideman with six wins, more than any previous bottom side."

How sweet that The Filth weren't that bad but we give em a spoon even though we missed our on finals due to Footscray drawing with CarlTank at least we fixed up coach Weideman, who went round bashing our blokes in 1958 GF, as they sacked Weideman and then replaced him with Hafey ... Weideman could not stand that Hafey was the first "clean" (I mean not a coach from within The Filth) coach.

I hold grudges!

BTW I have a soft spot for Sam Weideman but I just wish Sam would change his name!

[one_demon 826]

1 hour ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Wot?

Looks like Geelong will be premiers 

[rpfc 28,754]

5 minutes ago, one_demon said:

Looks like Geelong will be premiers 

Minor

[Demonstone 22,807]

11 minutes ago, Anti-Saint said:

"Big match" would be a final - and I don't think we have played The Filth since 1964?

We beat them in the 1989 Elimination Final.