Dermott’s 2022 flag prediction

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

Interesting to watch the media pundits stick to what they know. Dermott clearly can’t let go of the Tigers, basing his certainty on effectively nothing. 
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/11/17/dermott-breretons-early-2022-flag-prediction/

So, Asturbury retires, Robbie Tarrant comes in. They lose Coleman-jones and Marbiol Chol and he is tipping them to find their best form next year and win the flag.

Besides Martin coming back from injury, I can’t see where the big improvement is going to come from. Certainly not from what they pick up in the draft. They may uncover some gems but they will still need a couple of preseasons to make an impact.

 I’ve been wrong before but I really can’t see them being at the pointy end come finals 2022.

 On a separate note, it will be interesting to see whether we have earned some respect from the media yet. Clearly not from Dermie but I’ll be interested in where the flag predictions will go.

 

 

[Chook 15,022]

Which is team number three?

[Kent 2,914]

7 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

Interesting to watch the media pundits stick to what they know. Dermott clearly can’t let go of the Tigers, basing his certainty on effectively nothing. 
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/11/17/dermott-breretons-early-2022-flag-prediction/

So, Asturbury retires, Robbie Tarrant comes in. They lose Coleman-jones and Marbiol Chol and he is tipping them to find their best form next year and win the flag.

Besides Martin coming back from injury, I can’t see where the big improvement is going to come from. Certainly not from what they pick up in the draft. They may uncover some gems but they will still need a couple of preseasons to make an impact.

 I’ve been wrong before but I really can’t see them being at the pointy end come finals 2022.

 On a separate note, it will be interesting to see whether we have earned some respect from the media yet. Clearly not from Dermie but I’ll be interested in where the flag predictions will go.

 

 

the man is a clown why bother with

what he says

[durango 2,023]

There was a coach or commentator who once said 'you don't win premierships in April', so I say 'no team will ever win a match in December'.

His opinion may turn out to be correct or way of the mark because no one predicted the MFC was going to be 1st in 2021 in August and Premiers in September.

The greatest leveller is injuries and no one can predict that future, look at Fyfe his future is in doubt because the injury was treated but a problem occured during rehabilitation.

If both Richmond and Melbourne players remain healthy it maybe a Grand Final worth watching until half way thru the 3rd quarter like 2021 where predicting the result was very iffy. 

[Demon17 5,203]

This is clickbait but I'll fall for it.

I rate Dermot's in-game and player analysis, but this prediction demonstrates his closed thinking loop based on habits and is asking himself the wrong question.

Anyone watching last season and the total finals series, how the Dees dismantled top teams, The Dees age profile and star power across all lines, and coaching panel smarts should be asking themselves ,NOT who will win the 2022 flag, BUT who on earth is capable of stopping the Dees winning it , and then why.

Contemplating any other team winning in 2022 is pure guesswork with a 1 in 18 chance, not serious well-though out analysis.

I listened to an interview with Derm on SEN last night where he delved into persoanl matters, and I do see him in a softer light after that.

[BDA 22,889]

Richmond may well have one final yelp left in them. I won't be surprised if they are there or thereabouts come the pointy end of the season.

That said, no question the Dees are the team to beat and will be warm favorites to go back to back

[JJJ 1,313]

I’ve met him heaps of times. Top bloke actually.

He doesn’t rate Melbourne as a club, never has. I think that bias comes through loud and clear in these sort of pieces. He would rather invent a reason to put us down than look at the facts. It’s ok, he’s a known known. Doesn’t like us. Move on.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,246]

Derm is on another planet half the time and he also despises Melbourne so he couldn't bring him self to admit we are the best side in it.

I think Richmond will definitely be back in the top 8, just not sure how far they will go.

With their recent retirements and players leaving they are very thin for depth. Plus some of the key components of their premierships in Cotchin, Reiwoldt and Edwards are getting towards the wrong side of 30.

I think they may scrap into top 4 but likely will be around the 5th/6th mark.

[george_on_the_outer 7,706]

Putting aside Dermott's anti-Melbourne bias, picking Richmond to be there when they have lost Astbury and Houli out of their backline that leaked goals in 2021 and put Tarrant in there, is a bit hard to understand. 

Martin missing was critical to their fall this year, and highlighted the lack of depth and talent.  Cotchin is well and truly finished.  Nankervis can't jump off the ground any more and Soldo is a poor mans second option.  Getting rid of Chol was nonsensical with the injury clouds hanging over these two rucks.

Dogs will be back, so will we and watch out for Essendon.  Toiyges...nah!

Still it's all just an opinion.

 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

From the end of Sept until Round 1, the honorary favorite is the GF winner. Based on our superior finals series, no man with half a brain would bet against us at this point in time. 

As others have said, Derm has a grudge against us for some undocumented reason so cant see beyond his own bias. He is hanging onto his media career by a thread i reckon - should retire with what little dignity he has left.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,246]

1 minute ago, CYB said:

From the end of Sept until Round 1, the honorary favorite is the GF winner. Based on our superior finals series, no man with half a brain would bet against us at this point in time. 

As others have said, Derm has a grudge against us for some undocumented reason so cant see beyond his own bias. He is hanging onto his media career by a thread i reckon - should retire with what little dignity he has left.

100% agree. He just rambles every time I listen to him, in a manner not too different from Donald Trump.

I get a good laugh out of it, but his analysis is pretty poor.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

2 hours ago, durango said:

There was a coach or commentator who once said 'you do't win premierships in April', so I say 'no team will ever win a match in December'.

His opinion may turn out to be correct or way of the mark because no one predicted the MFC was going to be 1st in 2021 in August and Premiers in September.

The greatest leveller is injuries and no one can predict that future, look at Fyfe his future is in doubt because the injury was treated but a problem occured during rehabilitation.

If both Richmond and Melbourne players remain healthy it maybe a Grand Final worth watching until half way thru the 3rd quarter like 2021 where predicting the result was very iffy. 

Sorry to argue with you Durango, but Carlton defeated Collingwood (20.17.137 to 7.7.49) on 31 December 1999 in the so-called Who Cares Match Millenium Match. 

As to Dermott's choice for 2022 Premier, it's consistent with his style of standard contrarian analysis by not taking the soft option of choosing the 2021 Premier to win in 2022 as most media pundits will likely do.

Edited November 17, 2021 by La Dee-vina Comedia
typo

[Demonstone 22,820]

Brereton:  " ... they’ll get a good run with injuries this coming year.”

How could anybody predict what sort of run a team will get with injuries?  Unadulterated bulldust.

[In Harmes Way 7,823]

Agree with all above -esp. rebounding after losing both Astbury and Houli and with two average rucks with no depth. Additionally, Dusty was injured in the Round 18 win vs Brisbane. He didn't play the last 5 games, and Richmond were already toast by that point.  

I wonder what Dermie's analysis of our 2022 injury list will come up with.

[whatwhat say what 22,948]

if martin had been fit in the run in to finals then the tigers probably would have made finals again; he's that important to them

houli only played a dozen matches in 2021; he's not that big a loss

astbury's absence is more a concern, but tarrant is a handy replacement

[jarjos 16]

Brereton predictions

2021 Richmond  West Coast 

2020 West Coast Richmond

2018 said Dusty just a waddler

Not sure but think he picked us in 2019

Said Hawthorn couldn't go back to back then picked them to win 4 in a row 2016

 

Great track record

Edited November 17, 2021 by jarjos

[Fritta and Turner 4,539]

1 hour ago, Action Jackson said:

Cotchin, Reiwoldt and Edwards are getting towards the wrong side of 30

Not getting to the wrong side of 30, they are the wrong side.  Prestia is 29 and someone called Lambert is 30, Martin 31.  Who else do they run through the mid field?

Still they could probably do a Geelong and make finals.  Need Dusty to fire.

[godees 873]

Injuries happen when your list profile is older. The tigers will be competitive next year but not for the premiership, even with a good injury run. I would be surprised if they have lots of injuries again and miss the 8.

[durango 2,023]

The major problem as you get older is recovery from soft tissue injuries al la Prestia, Richmond had a great midfield but like Geelong the sides age demographics is now near late 20's and unless some of their younger players make a quantum leap towards stardom they will be reliant on the older brigade to get them to the 2022 premiership and hope for no injuries to critical players at the wrong time al la Bruce for the Bulldogs.

You could make a case for probably 10 teams for 2022 but it does not allow for a MFC coming of age and a finals campaign of total domination.

The question I ask  was when was the last time a team dominated the finals like the MFC?

[Watson11 2,243]

The bookies odds are probably a fair reflection.  I would have Sydney above Geelong and Richmond though. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

Richmond have a fistful of second round draft picks.  In a draft that is said to be very even from 20 to 45 they have every chance of getting some excellent talent that can play next year, as we did with our draftees (LJ, Kozzie, Rivers and Bowey).  I don't think they will win in 2022 but will be thereabout.

Geelong also have a fistful of second round draft picks and could quickly rejuvenate their team to avoid a deep slide.  Am starting to revise my view of them tumbling down the ladder in the next year or two.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

52 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Not getting to the wrong side of 30, they are the wrong side.  Prestia is 29 and someone called Lambert is 30, Martin 31.  Who else do they run through the mid field?

Still they could probably do a Geelong and make finals.  Need Dusty to fire.

I think we have all seen this movie before, have we not? *coughs* Geelong *coughs*. They are all within their right to take another tilt at the flag, but the cost will be a bigger and longer list rebuild. 

[58er 6,565]

42 minutes ago, durango said:

The major problem as you get older is recovery from soft tissue injuries al la Prestia, Richmond had a great midfield but like Geelong the sides age demographics is now near late 20's and unless some of their younger players make a quantum leap towards stardom they will be reliant on the older brigade to get them to the 2022 premiership and hope for no injuries to critical players at the wrong time al la Bruce for the Bulldogs.

You could make a case for probably 10 teams for 2022 but it does not allow for a MFC coming of age and a finals campaign of total domination.

The question I ask  was when was the last time a team dominated the finals like the MFC?

Can't remember perhaps Blues in 1995 or Dons in 2000 Cats in 2011 we're pretty good.  But still not quite like us esp as our first finals for half the team!

[adonski 12,435]

1 minute ago, CYB said:

I think we have all seen this movie before, have we not? *coughs* Geelong *coughs*. They are all within their right to take another tilt at the flag, but the cost will be a bigger and longer list rebuild. 

The difference is Richmond will be taking an extremely strong draft hand to replenish the list, where previously Jeelong would almost always trade them out 

[58er 6,565]

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

if martin had been fit in the run in to finals then the tigers probably would have made finals again; he's that important to them

houli only played a dozen matches in 2021; he's not that big a loss

astbury's absence is more a concern, but tarrant is a handy replacement

Results do tell that Houli and Astbury may be missed but Balta returns and Tarrant may be a good replacement but over 30 remember!!!