Ladder Watch

[titan_uranus 25,043]

4 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Well, for what it is worth, we are now a mathematical impossibility to miss finals.

Actually, I'm pretty sure we were last week after Freo and the Saints lost, but definitely lock it in now.

It's kind of a funny feeling, considering most of the last 15 years we would consider it a good year if we were even still a mathematical chance of making the finals this late in the season!

Top 2 is difficult but not complex - win at least one more game than either the Cats or Bulldogs, and at least the same number as Port.

Dropping out of the top 4 would require one of Sydney or Brisbane to win two games more than we do in the remaining four rounds, as well as Port gaining one win on us.

We can't really drop below 6th (home elimination final) unless we lose every game and West Coast wins every game.

Yep we were a mathematical certainty last week, as 8th was on 8 wins and we were 13.5 with 5 to play.

Top 2 is locked in if we go 4-0, as we must pass Geelong in that event. 4-0 means 2nd if the Dogs win out, or 1st if they drop 1 or more games.

3-1 guarantees top 4. We could finish as high as 1st (would require the Dogs and Cats to go 2-2 and Port to go 3-1 or worse) or as low as 4th (if the Dogs and Cats go 3-1 or better, and Port goes 4-0).

2-2 puts top 4 in jeopardy. We could theoretically still finish as high as 1st but far more likely we'll be 4th, 5th or 6th - 4th if Brisbane and Sydney lose at least one game each, 6th if they both go 4-0.

[dazzledavey36 55,347]

I have us finishing 5th. Nothing to do with ladder predictions or anything.

Just on exposed form for the past month and a bit, I just simply can't see us turning the switch all of a sudden. 

 

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

I had a $20 bonus bet with Sportsbet.

They were offering $9.50 on Demons missing the top 4 a week ago.  I took that offer. Looks pretty safe.

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

Anyone else notice that a few Teams like Geelong and West Coast seem to have muscled up over the last week.

ASADA still testing or gone to Tokyo.

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

The run home:

 

I think the top 7 are set with only the order to be decided.

Unfortunately, there is a very good chance that we meet Geelong in the first final if they are 1st and we are 4th or they are 2nd and we are 3rd.

Lets hope decent sized crowds are allowed at the G for finals otherwise Cats will be lobbying for the game to be at GMHBA.  Two consecutive weeks of playing them at Geelong is more than I could bear.

The solution:  Beat them in round 23!!  We either finish above them or get the game at the G.  Altho I'm not sure the G is an advantage as we have lost our last two games there. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[Superunknown 4,223]

11 hours ago, bingers said:

I had a $20 bonus bet with Sportsbet.

They were offering $9.50 on Demons missing the top 4 a week ago.  I took that offer. Looks pretty safe.

Cannot find - which section? They have us at 1.17 to make it this AM.

They also have Sydney at 3.40 and Bris 2.37.

Looking at both their draws, I suspect one of them has more chance of going 4-0 than we do of, what do we need to do - 2-2 with other results our way or 3-1 irrespective of other games?

[Kent 2,914]

2 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Cannot find - which section? They have us at 1.17 to make it this AM.

They also have Sydney at 3.40 and Bris 2.37.

Looking at both their draws, I suspect one of them has more chance of going 4-0 than we do of, what do we need to do - 2-2 with other results our way or 3-1 irrespective of other games?

How about 4 zip and some momentum?

[Demon17 5,203]

The Top 8 at the end of Round 10 is the same as it is now, with 4 teams in the same position, and the other 4 only 1 spot away between then and now.

This has been a common pattern, and despite all the to-ing and fro-ing of the last few possies this season, currently remains true again for 2021.

So lets assume finally that after Round 23 even the positons are the same, has the Dees finishing 2nd. behindsDogs, and ahead of Cats.

Fanciful maybe, but its what I'm now going with this week.

[Lord Travis 10,763]

We need to find form quickly. We’ve only won 4 of our last 9 matches, and only won 2 of our last 5. We’re a completely different team to that one that was 9-0. 

The midfield needs a reset. As good as they are, Trac and Clarry can’t do it all themselves every week. Gawns impact on games has been reduced recently, with less marking around the ground and less clean taps leading to clearances. Langdons form has dropped right off. JJs form has dropped right off. Brayshaws form has dropped off. Harmes has been poor all year with the exception of one March where he did a good tagging job. Viney has disrupted the balance in there since returning. We need to get the midfield firing again or we’ll miss top four and be out in straight sets. Fixing the midfield will mostly fix the forward line issues we’re experiencing. A few more set [censored] nailed and forward line is fine.

[roy11 3,893]

Speaking of Ladder Watch, can someone please remove the one from Max Gawn's back. He must be tired of people sitting on his head.

 

The Squiggle AutoPredict has us coming 3rd now. 

Geelong game will be huge, but expect more twist and turns from other teams too

[Pates 9,660]

20 minutes ago, roy11 said:

Speaking of Ladder Watch, can someone please remove the one from Max Gawn's back. He must be tired of people sitting on his head.

 

The Squiggle AutoPredict has us coming 3rd now. 

Geelong game will be huge, but expect more twist and turns from other teams too

It’s like his shoulders have a target on them for ever high flying player isn’t it? 

The last 4 rounds can be looked at a fight or an opportunity, we have to win hard games to finish the year which means if we do win games at the end we will have form coming into finals. Not unlike 2018, we have a tricky run home, last time we used it to springboard ourselves into a prelim. Time to stand up, are we or are we not better than 2018?

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

I think about the only thing I'm certain about is that we can't finish 9th on percentage. 

[Swooper1987 3,322]

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

We need to find form quickly. We’ve only won 4 of our last 9 matches, and only won 2 of our last 5. We’re a completely different team to that one that was 9-0. 

The midfield needs a reset. As good as they are, Trac and Clarry can’t do it all themselves every week. Gawns impact on games has been reduced recently, with less marking around the ground and less clean taps leading to clearances. Langdons form has dropped right off. JJs form has dropped right off. Brayshaws form has dropped off. Harmes has been poor all year with the exception of one March where he did a good tagging job. Viney has disrupted the balance in there since returning. We need to get the midfield firing again or we’ll miss top four and be out in straight sets. Fixing the midfield will mostly fix the forward line issues we’re experiencing. A few more set [censored] nailed and forward line is fine.

Good summary, but Trac has trailed off a bit I think.  I'm not sure if it's the return of Viney unbalancing things a bit, but other than his Port game, he's been only average in the last few games.  We need more from him.  He needs to spend more time forward and Gawn more time in that centre back role he plays so well.  Oliver is having a great season and at the moment probably only he and Lever are operating at optimum level.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

8 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The run home:

 

I think the top 7 are set with only the order to be decided.

Unfortunately, there is a very good chance that we meet Geelong in the first final if they are 1st and we are 4th or they are 2nd and we are 3rd.

Lets hope decent sized crowds are allowed at the G for finals otherwise Cats will be lobbying for the game to be at GMHBA.  Two consecutive weeks of playing them at Geelong is more than I could bear.

The solution:  Beat them in round 23!!  We either finish above them or get the game at the G.  Altho I'm not sure the G is an advantage as we have lost our last two games there. 

We seem to better off playing in front of a large, partisan crowd in an away fixture rather than playing a home game before an empty MCG. It's as though we need the adrenalin of the crowd to play with enthusiasm and intent.

 

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

Certainly a 'Bradbury' year for 8th spot.  11.5 or 12 games will do it.  Whichever team it is, will just be making up the numbers, except maybe Richmond.

After the Hawks defeat of the Lions I give them a big chance vs Bulldogs.  The game is in Launceston and Clarkson has something to prove.  He will want as many scalps as he can get and won't give a damn about ladder position and high draft picks.

With the fixture change to the GCS game I would be quite happy to play our final game vs Geelong on the Sunday after other top team results are known.  Three 8pt games for top 8 sides, for the AFL to choose from for Fri and Sat night.  A Sunday game will give us a 7 day break after back to back 6 day breaks.

All of Geelong games are now at GMHBA.  Hope that lulls them into a false sense of security re their form and we knock them over in round 23.

[BDA 22,880]

Reckon the top 3 will remain as is with Sydney in 4th. Swans a real smokey and no one will want to play them in a final. I reckon I’d prefer to miss top spot if the reward is a qual final against Sydney.

[Kent 2,914]

1 minute ago, BDA said:

Reckon the top 3 will remain as is with Sydney in 4th. Swans a real smokey and no one will want to play them in a final. I reckon I’d prefer to miss top spot if the reward is a qual final against Sydney.

YES BDA they are a very good clutch side and difficult to score against plus they have momentum

$7.50 to win hmmmmm

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

YES BDA they are a very good clutch side and difficult to score against plus they have momentum

$7.50 to win hmmmmm

Ahhh momentum. 

Unless you've won too many in a row in which case you're 'due for a loss'.

#mythsofelitesport.

[praha 11,240]

18 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Certainly a 'Bradbury' year for 8th spot.  11.5 or 12 games will do it.  Whichever team it is, will just be making up the numbers, except maybe Richmond.

After the Hawks defeat of the Lions I give them a big chance vs Bulldogs.  The game is in Launceston and Clarkson has something to prove.  He will want as many scalps as he can get and won't give a damn about ladder position and high draft picks.

With the fixture change to the GCS game I would be quite happy to play our final game vs Geelong on the Sunday after other top team results are known.  Three 8pt games for top 8 sides, for the AFL to choose from for Fri and Sat night.  A Sunday game will give us a 7 day break after back to back 6 day breaks.

All of Geelong games are now at GMHBA.  Hope that lulls them into a false sense of security re their form and we knock them over in round 23.

Bulldogs won't lose. They're playing in the GF. Opponents between Melb, Geelong, Sydney.

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

1 minute ago, praha said:

Bulldogs won't lose. They're playing in the GF. Opponents between Melb, Geelong, Sydney.

They could drop a game and still make the GF...

I don't have the Bulldogs in the GF.

If our mojo stays I reckon it is us vs Geelong or Sydney.  If not us Geelong vs Sydney.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

5 minutes ago, praha said:

Bulldogs won't lose. They're playing in the GF. Opponents between Melb, Geelong, Sydney.

I undo about that. I reckon they will drop at least one of those games.

Not easy being hunted every week like we were. You see the diff yesterday when opposition teams are not 100% on and committed. 

 

 

[Jaded No More 68,974]

Can't see us finishing top 2 now, unless by some miracle of miracles we beat Geelong in round 23.

Dogs and Cats unlikely to lose anymore, so we must keep winning to secure a top 4 spot and a double chance and home finals. 

Port and Sydney are by far our biggest competition. Port will likely lose to the Dogs and the showdown is always a 50/50 proposition, however I can't see how Sydney lose from here. 3 of the worst opponents you are likely to meet coming right up! 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Certainly a 'Bradbury' year for 8th spot.  11.5 or 12 games will do it.  Whichever team it is, will just be making up the numbers, except maybe Richmond.

After the Hawks defeat of the Lions I give them a big chance vs Bulldogs.  The game is in Launceston and Clarkson has something to prove.  He will want as many scalps as he can get and won't give a damn about ladder position and high draft picks.

With the fixture change to the GCS game I would be quite happy to play our final game vs Geelong on the Sunday after other top team results are known.  Three 8pt games for top 8 sides, for the AFL to choose from for Fri and Sat night.  A Sunday game will give us a 7 day break after back to back 6 day breaks.

All of Geelong games are now at GMHBA.  Hope that lulls them into a false sense of security re their form and we knock them over in round 23.

11-11 is almost certainly going to be the requirement for 8th - all of Essendon, Richmond and Carlton are alive for that reason, as none can get to 12-10 (technically St Kilda also alive).

It's also possible that 10-12 does it, shockingly.

West Coast is also no certainty to stay in the top 8 - if they lose to us, they'll have to beat Fremantle to just get to 11 and then will need to beat Brisbane away from Perth to get to 12. Their percentage is worse than Essendon's and Richmond's, and barely better than Carlton's, so if they go 1-2 and one of those other sides goes 3-0, it's very possible West Coast slips out.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

1 minute ago, Jaded said:

Can't see us finishing top 2 now, unless by some miracle of miracles we beat Geelong in round 23.

Dogs and Cats unlikely to lose anymore, so we must keep winning to secure a top 4 spot and a double chance and home finals. 

Port and Sydney are by far our biggest competition. Port will likely lose to the Dogs and the showdown is always a 50/50 proposition, however I can't see how Sydney lose from here. 3 of the worst opponents you are likely to meet coming right up! 

Whilst it's mathematically possible, top 2 may as well be considered impossible unless we go 3-0. If we only go 2-1, one of the Dogs and Geelong will need to go 1-2 for us to pass them, and the prospect of that happening is pretty close to 0% at this point (best chance is Geelong drops the GWS or St Kilda game, and then we beat them in the final round).

Sydney have a very easy final three games but they've been up for five weeks now and away from home that whole time. A cliff might be coming - write it down as one of the greatest flags if not, though, because their best is capable of beating anyone.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

4 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Whilst it's mathematically possible, top 2 may as well be considered impossible unless we go 3-0. If we only go 2-1, one of the Dogs and Geelong will need to go 1-2 for us to pass them, and the prospect of that happening is pretty close to 0% at this point (best chance is Geelong drops the GWS or St Kilda game, and then we beat them in the final round).

Sydney have a very easy final three games but they've been up for five weeks now and away from home that whole time. A cliff might be coming - write it down as one of the greatest flags if not, though, because their best is capable of beating anyone.

Yep Sydney really scare me. They are going to be very hard to beat if they make the top 4. They have the most balanced list in terms of attack and defence. A great balance of youth and maturity, and especially maturity in the middle which is important in finals. They know how to use the footy and how to kick goals. 

They play the MCG well, and have had the relative wood over us for a long long time. We barely beat them this year when we were on fire. 

I just hope that being away from home for so long takes its toll. Although it didn't for Richmond last year.

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by Jaded