Jump to content

Featured Replies

12 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

That's fine. I agree that 4 games will do that.  I, for one, see 3 wins 3 losses which puts us potentially 5th if we don't get our % up. 

just out of pure curiosity......

......but how many wins did you forecast at the beginning of the year?

 
1 hour ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

On the face of things, I fully agree. As outlined in the post, I feel we have the areas covered that we didn’t in 2004.
 

We’ll find out more in 6 weeks time.

You never forget the biggest discrepancy when your expectations were not met, particularly when something matters (oh, why does football [censored] matter?)

I too remember that time vividly, marginally older than you Col, for once being bewildered that we were on top (seems in retrospect, much like the team).

During and after the last 2 rounds the squiggle auto predict has had us finishing 2nd, 5th, 3rd and now first.

 

 

 

 

 

This round shows a few things.

First, "good sides don't lose to bad sides" is rubbish.

Second, West Coast and Richmond are, hopefully, fingers crossed, pretty please, cooked.

Third, upsets are going to happen.

Fourth, our best is as good as anyone's.

Fifth, everyone down to Gold Coast in 14th can still make the finals.

only disappointing carlscum couldn't take their chances against jilong to complete a great round of footy


  • Author

The West Coast result has made things interesting for the last two spots in the 8. I would say that the top 6 are pretty much assured of finishing in the 8 barring some major problem or Covid intervention.

The way I see it is that there are 6 teams trying yo get into the two spots.

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

This round shows a few things.

First, "good sides don't lose to bad sides" is rubbish.

Second, West Coast and Richmond are, hopefully, fingers crossed, pretty please, cooked.

Third, upsets are going to happen.

Fourth, our best is as good as anyone's.

Fifth, everyone down to Gold Coast in 14th can still make the finals.

I might be in the minority here.  But I would love to see the tigers get going and win the rest of their games, the media jump back on board them and say it was never in doubt, the greatest team of the modern era, another norm smith for dusty etc etc etc.... and then they run into us and we knock them out.

29 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

I might be in the minority here.  But I would love to see the tigers get going and win the rest of their games, the media jump back on board them and say it was never in doubt, the greatest team of the modern era, another norm smith for dusty etc etc etc.... and then they run into us and we knock them out.

I can see it that way, but I also would love to see them miss purely because after we beat them the tigers fans and players (and media) were all arrogantly saying, “oh yeah well done, but we’ll get you in the finals”. I’d just love to see them miss finals to come back at them saying, “sorry what was that about getting us in the finals?”

 
8 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Very true.  But giving Eagles a 21% chance of making finals was pretty silly by whoever in the AFL did the ratings.

Want to revisit this now??

7 hours ago, daisycutter said:

just out of pure curiosity......

......but how many wins did you forecast at the beginning of the year?

I expected to be breaking into the top 4...in 2019....


7 hours ago, Undeeterred said:

Want to revisit this now??

Not really,  A 21% chance of making finals was a silly call before round 17 was even over.

I still think they are a better chance of making finals than nearly all the teams below them because they are either a W ahead, a better % or both.  Not to mention the (on paper) difficulty or respective games in the last 6 rounds.

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero

Max Laughton on FoxFooty does a good weekly analysis: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-17-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/b0e8b05d42b89694ea8d57bad33be1b2

It's all obviously speculation and this week just gone shows how futile that can be, but that analysis also shows you that 11-11 is a genuine chance of being enough for finals this year.


11 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

First, "good sides don't lose to bad sides" is rubbish.

Spot on.  That belongs in the same bin as "good sides don't miss easy shots at goal".

2 hours ago, don cordner said:

I did the ladder predictor, had us beating the cats in the Grand Final. :)

I honestly don't know if I could watch the GF if we were playing the Cats.  the thought of the oiled up Hawkins and Danger gloating at the end makes me ill

21 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

As we have witnessed from results in the past couple of weeks crystal ball gazing is a waste of time. 

Anything can happen to any club in the present, few weeks of footy before the finals. In a conversation, several people including myself were not surprised that Brisbane dropped away - and expected them to drop further away from a top 4 finish to the season prior to finals.

Some sentiment of the same flavour was extended to the Bulldogs, and Geelong.

As for the Demons, most considered a finish in second top position to be the case but could not specify who would take top of the ladder position given the above. The lap of the gods is a precarious site to launch a convincing assault.

Whatever the crystal ball gazing, it is going to be tight. There are going to be surprises - one of which may well be the continuation of the ladder positions as these now stand. Carna Dees!

I am very happy with what the Dees have achieved this year, in so many fundamental ways including game mastery. Despite the scheduling and attendance handicaps, it's been a great footy season for us.

 

 

16 hours ago, daisycutter said:

just out of pure curiosity......

......but how many wins did you forecast at the beginning of the year?

Forget forecasting wins at the beginning of the year. Did anyone pick 6 or more winners for the round just completed? If you didn't, then what's the point of predicting any other future results? And if you did...you obviously know nothing about football!

My take is that every side has their down days and so far we have had the least. May it continue.


37 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

Just now, DubDee said:

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

How are we at more of a risk to be kicked out of top 4 than the other 3 below us who have won one or two less games?

 

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

port's problem will be the swans. i can see swans scraping into top 4 if they continue their form

 
On 7/11/2021 at 8:02 PM, CHF said:

There is a possibility we could play the Cats two weeks in a row. 

Play vanders in the first game to rough them up. 

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Good summary. 

On a lighter note, we don't play enough top 8 teams to get the wins we want - we seem to perform better against them cf teams outside! ?


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • PREVIEW: Brisbane

    And just like that, we’re Narrm again. Even though the annual AFL Sir Doug Nicholls Round which commemorates the contributions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture to our game has been a welcome addition to our calendar for ten years, more lately it has been a portent of tough times ahead for we beleaguered Narrm supporters. Ever since the club broke through for its historic 2021 premiership, this has become a troubling time of the year for the club. For example, it all began when Melbourne rebranded itself as Narrm across the two rounds of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round to become the first club to adopt an Indigenous club name especially for the occasion. It won its first outing under the brand against lowly North Melbourne to go to 10 wins and no losses but not without a struggle or a major injury to  star winger Ed Langdon who broke his ribs and missed several weeks. In the following week, still as Narrm, the team’s 17 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Dockers. That came along with more injuries, a plague that remained with them for the remainder of the season until, beset by injuries, the Dees were eliminated from the finals in straight sets. It was even worse last year, when Narrm inexplicably lowered its colours in Perth to the Waalit Marawar Eagles. Oh, the shame of it all! At least this year, if there is a corner to turn around, it has to be in the direction of something better. To that end, I produced a special pre-game chant in the local Narrm language - “nam mi:wi winnamun katjil prolin ambi ngamar thamelin amb” which roughly translated is “every heart beats true for the red and the blue.” >y belief is that if all of the Narrm faithful recite it long enough, then it might prove to be the only way to beat the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Sunday. The Lions are coming off a disappointing draw at Marvel Stadium against a North Melbourne team that lacks the ability and know how to win games (except when playing Melbourne). Brisbane are, however, a different kettle of fish at home and have very few positional weaknesses. They are a midfield powerhouse, strong in defence and have plenty of forward options, particularly their small and medium sized players, to kick a winning score this week after the sting of last week’s below par performance.

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 9 replies
    Demonland
  • REPORT: Hawthorn

    There was a time during the current Melbourne cycle that goes back to before the premiership when the club was the toughest to beat in the fourth quarter. The Demons were not only hard to beat at any time but it was virtually impossible to get the better them when scores were close at three quarter time. It was only three or four years ago but they were fit, strong and resilient in body and mind. Sadly, those days are over. This has been the case since the club fell off its pedestal about 12 months ago after it beat Geelong and then lost to Carlton. In both instances, Melbourne put together strong, stirring final quarters, one that resulted in victory, the other, in defeat. Since then, the drop off has been dramatic to the point where it can neither pull off victory in close matches, nor can it even go down in defeat  gallantly.

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • CASEY: Footscray

    At twenty-four minutes into the third term of the game between the Casey Demons and Footscray VFL at Whitten Oval, the visitors were coasting. They were winning all over the ground, had the ascendancy in the ruck battles and held a 26 point lead on a day perfect for football. What could go wrong? Everything. The Bulldogs moved into overdrive in the last five minutes of the term and booted three straight goals to reduce the margin to a highly retrievable eight points at the last break. Bouyed by that effort, their confidence was on a high level during the interval and they ran all over the despondent Demons and kicked another five goals to lead by a comfortable margin of four goals deep into the final term before Paddy Cross kicked a couple of too late goals for a despondent Casey. A testament to their lack of pressure in the latter stages of the game was the fact that Footscray’s last ten scoring shots were nine goals and one rushed behind. Things might have been different for the Demons who went into the game after last week’s bye with 12 AFL listed players. Blake Howes was held over for the AFL game but two others, Jack Billings and Taj Woewodin (not officially listed as injured) were also missing and they could have been handy at the end. Another mystery of the current VFL system.

      • Thanks
    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: Brisbane

    The Demons head back out on the road in Round 10 when they travel to Queensland to take on the reigning Premiers and the top of the table Lions who look very formidable. Can the Dees cause a massive upset? Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 139 replies
    Demonland
  • PODCAST: Hawthorn

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 12th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Demons loss to the Hawks. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 52 replies
    Demonland
  • POSTGAME: Hawthorn

    Wayward kicking for goal, dump kicks inside 50 and some baffling umpiring all contributed to the Dees not getting out to an an early lead that may have impacted the result. At the end of the day the Demons were just not good enough and let the Hawks run away with their first win against the Demons in 7 years.

      • Clap
      • Love
      • Like
    • 376 replies
    Demonland