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12 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

That's fine. I agree that 4 games will do that.  I, for one, see 3 wins 3 losses which puts us potentially 5th if we don't get our % up. 

just out of pure curiosity......

......but how many wins did you forecast at the beginning of the year?

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1 hour ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

On the face of things, I fully agree. As outlined in the post, I feel we have the areas covered that we didn’t in 2004.
 

We’ll find out more in 6 weeks time.

You never forget the biggest discrepancy when your expectations were not met, particularly when something matters (oh, why does football [censored] matter?)

I too remember that time vividly, marginally older than you Col, for once being bewildered that we were on top (seems in retrospect, much like the team).

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This round shows a few things.

First, "good sides don't lose to bad sides" is rubbish.

Second, West Coast and Richmond are, hopefully, fingers crossed, pretty please, cooked.

Third, upsets are going to happen.

Fourth, our best is as good as anyone's.

Fifth, everyone down to Gold Coast in 14th can still make the finals.

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The West Coast result has made things interesting for the last two spots in the 8. I would say that the top 6 are pretty much assured of finishing in the 8 barring some major problem or Covid intervention.

The way I see it is that there are 6 teams trying yo get into the two spots.

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

This round shows a few things.

First, "good sides don't lose to bad sides" is rubbish.

Second, West Coast and Richmond are, hopefully, fingers crossed, pretty please, cooked.

Third, upsets are going to happen.

Fourth, our best is as good as anyone's.

Fifth, everyone down to Gold Coast in 14th can still make the finals.

I might be in the minority here.  But I would love to see the tigers get going and win the rest of their games, the media jump back on board them and say it was never in doubt, the greatest team of the modern era, another norm smith for dusty etc etc etc.... and then they run into us and we knock them out.

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29 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

I might be in the minority here.  But I would love to see the tigers get going and win the rest of their games, the media jump back on board them and say it was never in doubt, the greatest team of the modern era, another norm smith for dusty etc etc etc.... and then they run into us and we knock them out.

I can see it that way, but I also would love to see them miss purely because after we beat them the tigers fans and players (and media) were all arrogantly saying, “oh yeah well done, but we’ll get you in the finals”. I’d just love to see them miss finals to come back at them saying, “sorry what was that about getting us in the finals?”

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7 hours ago, Undeeterred said:

Want to revisit this now??

Not really,  A 21% chance of making finals was a silly call before round 17 was even over.

I still think they are a better chance of making finals than nearly all the teams below them because they are either a W ahead, a better % or both.  Not to mention the (on paper) difficulty or respective games in the last 6 rounds.

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A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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Max Laughton on FoxFooty does a good weekly analysis: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-17-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/b0e8b05d42b89694ea8d57bad33be1b2

It's all obviously speculation and this week just gone shows how futile that can be, but that analysis also shows you that 11-11 is a genuine chance of being enough for finals this year.

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2 hours ago, don cordner said:

I did the ladder predictor, had us beating the cats in the Grand Final. :)

I honestly don't know if I could watch the GF if we were playing the Cats.  the thought of the oiled up Hawkins and Danger gloating at the end makes me ill

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21 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

As we have witnessed from results in the past couple of weeks crystal ball gazing is a waste of time. 

Anything can happen to any club in the present, few weeks of footy before the finals. In a conversation, several people including myself were not surprised that Brisbane dropped away - and expected them to drop further away from a top 4 finish to the season prior to finals.

Some sentiment of the same flavour was extended to the Bulldogs, and Geelong.

As for the Demons, most considered a finish in second top position to be the case but could not specify who would take top of the ladder position given the above. The lap of the gods is a precarious site to launch a convincing assault.

Whatever the crystal ball gazing, it is going to be tight. There are going to be surprises - one of which may well be the continuation of the ladder positions as these now stand. Carna Dees!

I am very happy with what the Dees have achieved this year, in so many fundamental ways including game mastery. Despite the scheduling and attendance handicaps, it's been a great footy season for us.

 

 

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16 hours ago, daisycutter said:

just out of pure curiosity......

......but how many wins did you forecast at the beginning of the year?

Forget forecasting wins at the beginning of the year. Did anyone pick 6 or more winners for the round just completed? If you didn't, then what's the point of predicting any other future results? And if you did...you obviously know nothing about football!

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37 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

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Just now, DubDee said:

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

How are we at more of a risk to be kicked out of top 4 than the other 3 below us who have won one or two less games?

 

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5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Well it is safe to say we are playing finals - MFC you may mail out the finals flyer!

The main worry is Port knocking us out of top 4 (thinking worst case). they have an easier run home and only need to win 2 more than us with some % to knock us out.  fairly unlikely but could happen

port's problem will be the swans. i can see swans scraping into top 4 if they continue their form

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1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Good summary. 

On a lighter note, we don't play enough top 8 teams to get the wins we want - we seem to perform better against them cf teams outside! ?

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