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PREGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle

Pickett2Jackson
Pickett2Jackson
in Melbourne Demons

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  On 15/03/2021 at 03:18, Lord Nev said:

All well argued mate.

Cheers, I appreciate it.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/blog/afl/understanding-how-clearances-shape-the-results-of-afl-games

FWIW, this is the best place I've seen dealing with clearances. It gives a good idea (point per clearance, for and against) of some of the issues. I prefer those sorts of articles a lot more than the 'ideas' of what's happening, as AFL is so chaotic that it's hard to really analyse, plus we all get caught up in our own teams and miss whether or not these are issues with us specifically or with the whole competition. I, almost always, try to temper my feelings with the knowledge that things are neither as good nor as bad as they appear, so I'd prefer to have hard data to let me know if I'm in the right ballpark or if I'm completely FOS. 

    • Like 3
     

    After reading through Freo's thread vs Melbourne i tend to agree with this topic of conversation.

    Freo are worried they are undermanned, but the general consensus is they have a great backline, good mids, severely undermanned up forward.  Sound familiar?

    They are nearly solely worried about Gawn and his influence on the game.

    90% of the suggestions are that they rove to Max, almost conceding that their ruck will not be able to compete.  The supporters know it and so will Longmuir.

    I have mentioned this a few times in other threads but i reckon 80%+ of Max's hitouts go over his left shoulder (tapping with the right hand).  Generally Oliver is waiting for it there but all midfields sweat on this setup and quite often Oliver handballs to someone close and it is a repeat stoppage or we cough up the ball.  It is super predictable.

    The doggies last year did not even play a ruck vs us most of the day, (Dunkley) and he just acted as another onballer when the ball hit the ground. 

    Team have worked out that they can allow Max to win the hit outs as long as they outnumber on the outside and are set up well.   Most teams know we get sucked into the contest like undisciplined kids that all want to get a touch.

    I really think Max need to hustle and bustle a bit more.   He is a huge man but rarely does he influence the next contests by throwing his body around, and clearing a path for our onballers.  All of our midfield need to block for each other/set screens, and get moving at the stoppages/clearances.

    Luke Jackson may be the answer in the ruck.  He is like another midfielder when the ball hits the ground and we look more dynamic with him in there.  We definitely need to mix it up and i am not writing Max off vs a 2nd year player but i think LJ needs to be there at least 30-50% of time.  Have Max forward as he is better than LJ there + we need to kick enough goals to win the game.

    Really hoping to see variation in our set ups.  Yze's influence should see us starting to get more creative in the midfield.

    Max is nearly always going to get first hands on the ball, his influence from the midfield though is seemingly negated these days.  It is his marking around the ground which really makes him a great player.  Would much prefer to see him taking his marks forward than back, purely for damage value of those marks within the arc.

    • Like 10
      On 15/03/2021 at 04:02, Axis of Bob said:

    Cheers, I appreciate it.

    https://www.statsinsider.com.au/blog/afl/understanding-how-clearances-shape-the-results-of-afl-games

    FWIW, this is the best place I've seen dealing with clearances. It gives a good idea (point per clearance, for and against) of some of the issues. I prefer those sorts of articles a lot more than the 'ideas' of what's happening, as AFL is so chaotic that it's hard to really analyse, plus we all get caught up in our own teams and miss whether or not these are issues with us specifically or with the whole competition. I, almost always, try to temper my feelings with the knowledge that things are neither as good nor as bad as they appear, so I'd prefer to have hard data to let me know if I'm in the right ballpark or if I'm completely FOS. 

    Love it. Having a good read of that now, really well put together.

    Context around stats and trends in footy is a bit of a rabbit hole hey? Despite some of our differing opinions around some of the other aspects, I think most of us commenting about this stuff in this thread now seem to agree that the quality of our clearance work needs to improve for us to start maximizing the talent we currently have.

    • Like 2
     
      On 15/03/2021 at 04:02, Diamond_Jim said:

    If you want to download the ticket to your phone and thus avoid the need for internet on entry the app requires  Google wallet.

    Just removes uncertainty if you hit a wifi blackspot

    taking a screen shot could be a decent work around but I'm sick of Ticketek and their processes.

    Definitely just take a screenshot. Works 100% of the time, 100% of the time.

    I don’t know if this has been mentioned but given both the the girls and boys team are playing Freo this weekend, it is a shame they could not have played the same day at the G. Would have been great. 

    • Like 3

      On 15/03/2021 at 05:18, FarNorthernD said:

    I don’t know if this has been mentioned but given both the the girls and boys team are playing Freo this weekend, it is a shame they could not have played the same day at the G. Would have been great. 

    Girls are playing in Freo, I believe. I agree definitely a shame, as I'd expect a similar result to last Saturday with the AFLW playing here vs. away.

      On 15/03/2021 at 05:18, FarNorthernD said:

    I don’t know if this has been mentioned but given both the the girls and boys team are playing Freo this weekend, it is a shame they could not have played the same day at the G. Would have been great. 

    Agree you on this. It would be a hard ask AFLW Fremantle to come to Melbourne 2 weeks in a row. 

    27 degrees and sunny on Saturday. Hope this suits our apparent fitness under Burgess.

    Still have painful memories of round 1 2019 when it was about 32 degrees. 

    • Like 2
    • Sad 1
     
      On 15/03/2021 at 03:11, Kent said:

    Yeah watch  him compete with McDonald and spoil. The forward line is a complete shambles all flying for the ball nobody ever forward of the contest to rove s spill  Its a joke sometimes

    Sadly the case, so often. 

      On 15/03/2021 at 05:53, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    27 degrees and sunny on Saturday. Hope this suits our apparent fitness under Burgess.

    Still have painful memories of round 1 2019 when it was about 32 degrees. 

    Think that will help Freo more than us.

    • Like 1

    Seeing as a lot of us see Max in the forward, to me, it could be interesting to have more variation with a switch of Max picking up the boundary throw in's a lot more, where there is room to mix it up.

    Our on ballers would be asked to get their own ball and choose their plans with sneakiness and brain power.

      On 14/03/2021 at 19:42, Clint Bizkit said:

    Anyone think we will win?

    I’m 50/50 on it, I think a month ago I was more confident but as it get nearer and knowing the importance of a strong start to the season I’m getting worried. 

    The concerning part for me is I see very few signs of actually addressing the issues that have plagued us for the last couple of seasons. I want to see us return to the manic pressure we had in 2018, if we do that we will win more games than we lose. 

    • Like 3
    • Demonland changed the title to PREGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle
      On 15/03/2021 at 06:22, willmoy said:

    Seeing as a lot of us see Max in the forward, to me, it could be interesting to have more variation with a switch of Max picking up the boundary throw in's a lot more, where there is room to mix it up.

    Our on ballers would be asked to get their own ball and choose their plans with sneakiness and brain power.

    Can I use that for a pet peeve. The umps throw the ball in too flat trying to get it in deep.

    That makes a tall ruck like Max struggle to be useful because it’s hard to tap the ball over his head to the corridor.

    The best forward ruck is Hawkins because he just pushes his opponent (often illegally) under the ball and the snaps goals or dishes handballs in to the corridor. 
     

    I thought Weid could do the same as he gets stronger. Benny Brown might be the same but he’s light in the legs. Max could make an impact occasionally but I don’t think he’s as good as people think. All the time dropping him out of forward 50 stoppages doesn’t hurt us all that much.

    • Like 1

    Does anyone know anything about Yze’s midfield plan or philosophy?

    I figure as an ambitious smart and experienced assistant coach he’ll be wanting to weave some magic on our underperforming midfield group.

    Watched “The Last Dance.”  recently, and was thinking about that almost anonymous assistant coach who developed the “Triangle”, kinda hoping Adem can innovate as well.

    Bring on the Dockers at the G, and let’s see if we have a new midfield...

     

    • Like 2

      On 15/03/2021 at 08:02, PaulRB said:

    Does anyone know anything about Yze’s midfield plan or philosophy?

    I figure as an ambitious smart and experienced assistant coach he’ll be wanting to weave some magic on our underperforming midfield group.

    Watched “The Last Dance.”  recently, and was thinking about that almost anonymous assistant coach who developed the “Triangle”, kinda hoping Adem can innovate as well.

    Bring on the Dockers at the G, and let’s see if we have a new midfield...

     

    i think we saw few glimpses of Yze's influence at least against Richmond.

    Clayton got moving, give and then really go for the handball receive.  Harmes did some great blocking.  Petracca also looked dynamic at the stoppages with a balance of blocking and attacking.

    Expect to see Kossie in the guts quite a bit this season.   Mark Williams said he expects him to dominate.

    Not sure on Yze's philosophy but seeing a bit then hearing about Kossie, we should really be onto an excitement ride.

    Imagane LJ in the ruck Petracca/Oliver and Kossie.  Yikes!

    • Like 3
      On 12/03/2021 at 02:17, Pickett2Jackson said:

    Nah they beat us when we had finals on the line. They are a better team.

    We beat St Kilda when they could have sewn up a top 8 spot

    We annihilated Collingwood who finished above us

    who was the better team

    • Like 2

    I am stupidly excited.  I know I’m setting myself up for tears, but I just am.  Go Dees.

    • Like 2

    Apparently the suspension happened because MFC submitted a request for the incident to be reviewed, not because he was reported mid or post game. Wow.

     

    edit. The article says the ‘demons’ submitted a review (not MFC) and I forgot Perth were called the demons

    Edited by The Jackson 6

    • Haha 4

    I’m confident we will beat Freo because Walters is out and Taberner has been poor in the preseason games. I don’t know who will score for them. Defences will be on top but I think in Fritsch, Petracca and Max (reckon he’ll clunk a few inside 50 and convert) we will score 2-3 more goals than them.

    • Like 1
      On 15/03/2021 at 08:02, PaulRB said:

    Does anyone know anything about Yze’s midfield plan or philosophy?

    Have heard snippets here and there.

    Defensive zoning will be a big thing Adem is pushing. We'll run forward hard and fast, but players behind the ball will be left in no uncertain terms about where they should be positioning themselves to try and prevent the opposition rebounding we're so used to seeing.

    Gawny will be forward a fair bit. Not sure if that will change once Weid and/or Brown are back, but it's absolutely part of the strategy. Other talls, namely Jackson and TMac will be tasked with getting higher up the ground to make that work.

    We may also see a bit of a surprise on the wing... I'd give a clue, but then you might pick it. ;)

     

    • Like 11
    • Thanks 1
      On 11/03/2021 at 23:35, Deemania since 56 said:

    Generally agree, except for Baker who has had a decent run and opportunity to 'pre-season' display himself. He is not setting the world on fire at the moment indicative of more time needed at the lower level. 

    how much more time can a 4th year player have at the second level, just gotta cut losses and move on.

      On 12/03/2021 at 01:25, P-man said:

    Nibbler’s value has significantly increased with rotations dropping to 75 and the return to full length quarters. The boy can run as far as the day is long. Couple that with what looks to be a spell of strong form and It wouldn’t surprise me to see him playing the majority of games this year.

    i was really surprised at how many times he came to the bench vs doggies, definitely at least once a quarter for a good 6-8 minutes, feel like that's a lot?

      On 15/03/2021 at 01:16, dazzledavey36 said:

    There will be a big list overhaul come season end.

    Jones, Jetta, Hibberd, Mitch Brown, Vandenberg are already on my retired list.

    That's 5 already gone, not even counting the delisted players as well. 

    I was surprised we weren't as ruthless as I thought we should have at last year's trade period. Is it blind faith? Who knows.

    But going into 2022 with this list raises a fee too many concerns for my liking.

    hibbo i think could have another year left in him after this as depth/insurance depending on what we decide on hore/lockhart who are yet to really show they can contribute constitantly  at the level more than he does

     
      On 15/03/2021 at 11:42, Lord Nev said:

    Have heard snippets here and there.

    Defensive zoning will be a big thing Adem is pushing. We'll run forward hard and fast, but players behind the ball will be left in no uncertain terms about where they should be positioning themselves to try and prevent the opposition rebounding we're so used to seeing.

    Gawny will be forward a fair bit. Not sure if that will change once Weid and/or Brown are back, but it's absolutely part of the strategy. Other talls, namely Jackson and TMac will be tasked with getting higher up the ground to make that work.

    We may also see a bit of a surprise on the wing... I'd give a clue, but then you might pick it. ;)

     

    Seeing the pictures of him he has clearly developed physically quite a bit!  Exciting to possibly having him run through the midfield or wing,  Really looking forward to seeing how is deployed vs Freo.

      On 15/03/2021 at 11:55, NeveroddoreveN said:

    Seeing the pictures of him he has clearly developed physically quite a bit!  Exciting to possibly having him run through the midfield or wing,  Really looking forward to seeing how is deployed vs Freo.

    Wasn't told much about it as a concept. So not sure if it's just a sometime thing or a more settled role, but given he was our number 1 for tackles inside 50 last year (and he got his first goal that way in the VFL practice match too!) I would be VERY surprised if it was a full time role.

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