Game plans, tactics and all that jazz

[Rossmillan 493]

9 hours ago, binman said:

Not sure about the uncontested mark stat  I'll check.

But we used a very similar tactic against the dogs - ie using uncontested marks to control the tempo, frustrate the dog's ability to get into a rhythm and transition the ball from their back half.

In that game we had 141 marks (the second most under goody), in this game we had 117

And i suspect a high % were in the first half, as was the case against the Dogs.

I think that is part of a strategy to not let those teams settle into how they want the game to look.

There is an interesting parallel between the dogs and cats.

Both teams are helmed by coaches that like to tactically mess with their opponents in terms of having specific strategies that disrupt opponents game plans and method. 

But in both games it was us who disrupted their method and refused to let them settle into their preferred method.

Scott reckon his players were off at the start.

Whilst he is right, the reason they were off is we never allowed them to settle into a rhythm because goody schooled scott (supposedly a tactical genius) tactically.

I hope the media point that out, but I won't hold my breath.

In addition to this, Steven May seemed to indicate in his post match on Fox footy, this tactic was to also fatigue the cats forwards, presumably by chasing us to defend.  Very clever in my view.

It would be interesting to see Jeremy Cameron tracker numbers, I wonder if his shanks at the end of the game can be attributed to extra running and fatigue.

[whatwhat say what 19,244]

7 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Sure, but he’s guarding the least dangerous space, without the ability to get immediate pressure to force a turnover, nor the ability to quickly counter.

If a team gets a clean entry from the stoppage in to the corridor and goes inside 50 to the fat side he’s not involved in the play at all. And given most teams roll their half forward up to the corridor side of the stoppage his direct opponent is taking a dangerous spot. 
 

 

but that's not the way we play nor the style that goodwin wants us to play

what you are proposing is a pretty fundamental change to the system that we are trying to execute

not going to happen, particularly not part way through a season

we are wearing the risk by curtailing the 'normal' method of operation that clubs want to play against us, which in turn should help us play the way we want to play

[DeeSpencer 23,256]

3 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

but that's not the way we play nor the style that goodwin wants us to play

what you are proposing is a pretty fundamental change to the system that we are trying to execute

not going to happen, particularly not part way through a season

we are wearing the risk by curtailing the 'normal' method of operation that clubs want to play against us, which in turn should help us play the way we want to play

Not really, I can’t seem to ever post a photo on here even when I upload it to a 3rd party image host. This is a bit after a stoppage pretty much bang on centre wing when the Cats get a free kick but look how close to the boundary and in between lines that Riv is.

https://ibb.co/6Py1qmy
 

I’m suggesting he comes 5-10m corridor side so he’s in line with the goals to the ball and depending on the state of the game he either comes 10m up so he can pressure and receive handballs or 10m back so he’s a genuine intercepting option. 

[whatwhat say what 19,244]

3 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Not really, I can’t seem to ever post a photo on here even when I upload it to a 3rd party image host. This is a bit after a stoppage pretty much bang on centre wing when the Cats get a free kick but look how close to the boundary and in between lines that Riv is.

https://ibb.co/6Py1qmy
 

I’m suggesting he comes 5-10m corridor side so he’s in line with the goals to the ball and depending on the state of the game he either comes 10m up so he can pressure and receive handballs or 10m back so he’s a genuine intercepting option. 

i'm sure there's a reason he's 'guarding space' there 

presumably to defend the short turnaround hit up lead to the boundary if he wasn't, plus with his speed he can protect the slight inbound as well

i trust rivers' positioning and the management of it by the footy dept

[Binmans PA 26,292]

2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

i'm sure there's a reason he's 'guarding space' there 

presumably to defend the short turnaround hit up lead to the boundary if he wasn't, plus with his speed he can protect the slight inbound as well

i trust rivers' positioning and the management of it by the footy dept

It's also noticeable that the Cats played very tightly along the boundary a number of times, probanly bevause we denied them central areas often. If Rivers goes too corridor, it allows Geelong the space boundary side to potentially run and carry, and get a dangerous entry.

Edited May 5 by Binmans PA

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

Ok, so looking forward to Carlton on Thursday... here are some questions.

1.What does the game plan look like after a 5 day break and the fatigue that will surely come into the match towards

a) the end of each quarters and b) the last quarter and a half?

 

2.On evidence against Geelong (correct spelling) and detailed by Steven May, was the desire to short kick through the defence and then take our time going into F50, do we take the same approach against Carlton's defence?

 

3. What is Voss's M.O from a strategy perspective? Carlton's midfield typically matches up well against ours, managing Walsh, Cerra and Cripps will be pivitol (like all matches I suppose)...

[Binmans PA 26,292]

2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

1.What does the game plan look like after a 5 day break and the fatigue that will surely come into the match towards

a) the end of each quarters and b) the last quarter and a half?

I think the answer to 1 is also the answer to 2. I hope we use the chip around half back to control tempo, frustrate Carlton, and keep McKay and Curnow out of the game.

We save some gas during this for the first half, and make sure we take our chances in the forward half, and then use bolder ball movement in the second half when the game opens up a bit.

Going on the Adelaide experience, we may not even open things up in the second half, but I think we'll want to isolate Weitering and either Petty or Fritta get that job. We need more from Disco this week too.

If Petty plays high half forward like the other night, the old CHF spot, ideally he drags Weitering with him, but I think it's more likely then Fritta or Turner vs Weitering inside 50.

Carlton played the chip game from half back against us last year in the later game in the H&A, and they worked their way through our zone that way too. But, 1) our zone was nowhere near as deep and 2) Kozzy didn't play. Newman's ball movement is a key for them. I'm not sure how far away Saad is, but he's obviously another key. 

I think Carlton will probably edge us for stoppages, but it's about the quality of those possessions and a big part of this is how good our post clearance pressure is.

In his post game interview, May made specific mention of how good our mid post pressure was. We need this again, because they often match it with us or beat us in the middle and they're probably the only team that can really match our mids on talent and depth.

Carlton are great out of stoppage, and we're great at defending scores from stoppage, so again, a bit like last week, can our strength beat theirs? 

[jnrmac 19,147]

16 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Not really, I can’t seem to ever post a photo on here even when I upload it to a 3rd party image host. This is a bit after a stoppage pretty much bang on centre wing when the Cats get a free kick but look how close to the boundary and in between lines that Riv is.

https://ibb.co/6Py1qmy
 

I’m suggesting he comes 5-10m corridor side so he’s in line with the goals to the ball and depending on the state of the game he either comes 10m up so he can pressure and receive handballs or 10m back so he’s a genuine intercepting option. 

I'd say he is guarding the quick kick fwd plus the backward handball if we clear the stoppage.

[jnrmac 19,147]

46 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Going on the Adelaide experience, we may not even open things up in the second half, but I think we'll want to isolate Weitering and either Petty or Fritta get that job. We need more from Disco this week too.

If Petty plays high half forward like the other night, the old CHF spot, ideally he drags Weitering with him, but I think it's more likely then Fritta or Turner vs Weitering inside 50.

Carlton played the chip game from half back against us last year in the later game in the H&A, and they worked their way through our zone that way too. But, 1) our zone was nowhere near as deep and 2) Kozzy didn't play. Newman's ball movement is a key for them. I'm not sure how far away Saad is, but he's obviously another key. 

I think Carlton will probably edge us for stoppages, but it's about the quality of those possessions and a big part of this is how good our post clearance pressure is.

In his post game interview, May made specific mention of how good our mid post pressure was. We need this again, because they often match it with us or beat us in the middle and they're probably the only team that can really match our mids on talent and depth.

Carlton are great out of stoppage, and we're great at defending scores from stoppage, so again, a bit like last week, can our strength beat theirs? 

Disco may play defensive fwd on Weitering. He is too good a mark for Weitering. to leave alone so he can drag JW up the ground where he does no damage

Edited May 6 by jnrmac

[binman 38,765]

17 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Disco may play defensive fwd on Weitering. He is too good a mark for Weitering. to leave alone so he can drag JW up the ground where he does no damage

Good call. 

He is tall enough, strong enough and good enough one on one to match weitering (who is a gun no doubt).

And has the defensive chops to negate Weitering when needed

But and as you note Weitering cant take liberties as Disco is an offensive threat - which is how melk played that role ie not a purely defensive negating role, look to also hit the scoreboard and be an offensive threat.

That offensive threat is an even bigger issue if McGovern doesn't get up.

A lot of talk about the strength of our forward line.

But wirh petty, van royen and disco we have three good sized, mobile key forwards who are dangerous in the air and need to be covered.

That creates major match up problems.

Particularly when you add a player who has been our leading goal kicker for four seasons and is currently equal fourth on the Coleman ladder.

[binman 38,765]

I love me my stats.

But i like them only so far as they can used to help understand the game, not an end to themselves.

Like medical symptoms they help with the diagnosis (of issues, method, results, strengths, weaknesses etc).

And like medical symptoms, they are not that useful if looked at in isolation (ie not triangulating mutiple data points) or analysed (ie  not taken at face value).

Fox footy people routinely use champion data stays in a way that suggests they don't understand how to properly use data to inform their analysis.

And it would appear fox have also gone all in on AI to write their 'articles'.

Case in point (note: I'm not suggesting the data is of no value - bit comments like 'the premier has been in the premiership window at round 8...' are);

[binman 38,765]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/genuine-concern-fear-over-flag-fancy-as-afl-title-trend-points-to-two-clear-contenders/news-story/011a91fda6ea530d45d6fceb03dd108a

[jnrmac 19,147]

3 hours ago, binman said:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/genuine-concern-fear-over-flag-fancy-as-afl-title-trend-points-to-two-clear-contenders/news-story/011a91fda6ea530d45d6fceb03dd108a

I don't mind this measurement but I agree it has its deficiencies. For example Melbourne's offence is not ranked as a Premiership threat according to this chart but look where we are defensively - the number 1. We are the most difficult team to score against by far over the past 4 years.  

So you don't have to score big numbers if your defence is so strong even though we would all like to score more.

[binman 38,765]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

I don't mind this measurement but I agree it has its deficiencies. For example Melbourne's offence is not ranked as a Premiership threat according to this chart but look where we are defensively - the number 1. We are the most difficult team to score against by far over the past 4 years.  

So you don't have to score big numbers if your defence is so strong even though we would all like to score more.

Agree, it definitely a useful indicator.

We have usually been in that so called premiership quadrant ever since they started using it (and on that graphic almost are now)

It just gets a bit silly when the fox  crew treat it like it is some sort of statistical Rosetta stone

I mean, the sample size is small and for example we are marginally outside an arbitrary line. 

And because you have applied a level of analysis the fox crew haven’t, you have highlighted a possible explanation for say where we are located on the graph.

I get the whole thing is about creating content and talking points and pretty graphics that lend some gravitas.

But it just reinforces the scepticism about the use of stats and analytics to help understand the game

[biggestred 4,343]

5 hours ago, binman said:

I love me my stats.

But i like them only so far as they can used to help understand the game, not an end to themselves.

Like medical symptoms they help with the diagnosis (of issues, method, results, strengths, weaknesses etc).

And like medical symptoms, they are not that useful if looked at in isolation (ie not triangulating mutiple data points) or analysed (ie  not taken at face value).

Fox footy people routinely use champion data stays in a way that suggests they don't understand how to properly use data to inform their analysis.

And it would appear fox have also gone all in on AI to write their 'articles'.

Case in point (note: I'm not suggesting the data is of no value - bit comments like 'the premier has been in the premiership window at round 8...' are);

https://live.squiggle.com.au/ is a much better indicator. have a look at those past premierships. gotta be in that top right hand corner. 

[MrFreeze 1,410]

39 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree, it definitely a useful indicator.

We have usually been in that so called premiership quadrant ever since they started using it (and on that graphic almost are now)

It just gets a bit silly when the fox  crew treat it like it is some sort of statistical Rosetta stone

I mean, the sample size is small and for example we are marginally outside an arbitrary line. 

And because you have applied a level of analysis the fox crew haven’t, you have highlighted a possible explanation for say where we are located on the graph.

I get the whole thing is about creating content and talking points and pretty graphics that lend some gravitas.

But it just reinforces the scepticism about the use of stats and analytics to help understand the game

Statistics in the AFL are almost always used to 'explain' and never 'predict'. We see a result and find stats that suit our observation. But rarely are any places like champion data creating valid predictions, which would be a true estimation of the usefulness of the selected statistics. 

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I don't mind this measurement but I agree it has its deficiencies. For example Melbourne's offence is not ranked as a Premiership threat according to this chart but look where we are defensively - the number 1. We are the most difficult team to score against by far over the past 4 years.  

So you don't have to score big numbers if your defence is so strong even though we would all like to score more.

.I like this place :) - which takes on board what you have spoken about

Squiggle - https://live.squiggle.com.au/#

[Demon Dynasty 15,684]

Something for Bin who i believe was asking about 'post clearance' contested possessions?

Apparently after 8 rounds guess who leads it, and by a long way...

The Hawks 🤔 

Sitting on top with +95

The next best sitting a fair way back at +35

[RedBlueandTrue 230]

Anyone feeling weirdly positive despite the loss? Umps were very frustrating but they always are.

Sad not to win, but the performance has left me more confident with the direction we are heading tactically. I also love the way we were able to slowly wrestle away and maintain momentum right up to the end after a demoralising first quarter. 

This game for me, was decided by Carlton's ability to nail shot after shot, in the first quarter in particular. Yes, we started slowly (cough 5 day break cough), but our start was made to look a lot worse due to Carlton making us pay for every shot. If we're looking at 3.3, 2.5 or even 4.1 instead of 5.0 at the break, you can be looking at an entirely different game. More than at any time when I have been following footy, accuracy seems to be king with the protected zone and stand rules obviously playing a part in this. Our 5 straight in the last won it last week.

It is clear that we are finally in the process of adjusting our plan to generate less but higher-percentage goal-scoring opportunities. If we can get it to click more consistently and confidently I think we will be as well placed as we have been since 2021. For what it's worth, I also feel that we seem to have that extra little intangible bit of belief and team spirit that perhaps was not so obvious at times in 2022 and 2023. 

We are in a very strong position and I am more confident than ever that we are putting the pieces in place to get the team peaking at the right time. To be 6-3 with such drastic changes to our style is so fantastic. I had us 4-5 at this point on my preseason ladder predictor and still finishing 3rd, so I am absolutely wrapped.

I think our premiership profile is building and last night's loss did nothing to change my mind - I doubt it changed the belief of the coaches and players either. Could of course be an unrealistically positive take but I honestly feel we have a really exciting and memorable season unfolding.

[Ollie fan 2,207]

I have said on other threads, and truly believe, the last night was an extremely important game for us in a very positive way. We had no right to win it or even get close after the disastrous start. It showed that this year, the character and determination of our team is off the charts, which, in my view, sets us well and truly on the path to a flag. 

[Bonkers 918]

1 hour ago, RedBlueandTrue said:

Anyone feeling weirdly positive despite the loss? Umps were very frustrating but they always are.

Sad not to win, but the performance has left me more confident with the direction we are heading tactically. I also love the way we were able to slowly wrestle away and maintain momentum right up to the end after a demoralising first quarter. 

This game for me, was decided by Carlton's ability to nail shot after shot, in the first quarter in particular. Yes, we started slowly (cough 5 day break cough), but our start was made to look a lot worse due to Carlton making us pay for every shot. If we're looking at 3.3, 2.5 or even 4.1 instead of 5.0 at the break, you can be looking at an entirely different game. More than at any time when I have been following footy, accuracy seems to be king with the protected zone and stand rules obviously playing a part in this. Our 5 straight in the last won it last week.

It is clear that we are finally in the process of adjusting our plan to generate less but higher-percentage goal-scoring opportunities. If we can get it to click more consistently and confidently I think we will be as well placed as we have been since 2021. For what it's worth, I also feel that we seem to have that extra little intangible bit of belief and team spirit that perhaps was not so obvious at times in 2022 and 2023. 

We are in a very strong position and I am more confident than ever that we are putting the pieces in place to get the team peaking at the right time. To be 6-3 with such drastic changes to our style is so fantastic. I had us 4-5 at this point on my preseason ladder predictor and still finishing 3rd, so I am absolutely wrapped.

I think our premiership profile is building and last night's loss did nothing to change my mind - I doubt it changed the belief of the coaches and players either. Could of course be an unrealistically positive take but I honestly feel we have a really exciting and memorable season unfolding.

I don’t see much difference in our deficiencies from last year. In a finals type game where the game was contested, tight and hard to score our forwards apart from Petracca struggled to impact the game until the last quarter.

We had enough I50s last night and territory over the whole game to kick a winning score. That has been our issue now for 3 years.

I can see that Goodwin and co. are trying to adapt and create different methods to create scoring opportunities. But overall our forward entries at times are still to often long bombs rather than using skills to hit up a free option inside 50. It’s a work in progress. The difference maker would be a reliable marking target I50 and some more efficient ball use going inside 50. 

Out of last nights game there are a few more concerns for me, we allowed Carlton to score 5 goals from Centre Clearance which used to be a strong part of our game.

Another concern was the way that Carlton messed with our zone defence in the first quarter and were able to take 3 marks for goals. Their ability to take inside 50 marks in that period was the game difference in my opinion.

Following that the game was an arm wrestle and we had to push Petracca forward to generate scores which moves him out of the midfield. We’d get some momentum but then Carlton would score out of the centre bounce again. The loss of Brayshaw is a big blow as he could cover many positions for us tactically. 
 

I may change my opinion if McAdam and Melksham can start making a difference for us in the forward line when they come in. At the moment we seem too reliant on our defence to win games for us. 

 

[RedBlueandTrue 230]

17 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

I don’t see much difference in our deficiencies from last year. In a finals type game where the game was contested, tight and hard to score our forwards apart from Petracca struggled to impact the game until the last quarter.

We had enough I50s last night and territory over the whole game to kick a winning score. That has been our issue now for 3 years.

I can see that Goodwin and co. are trying to adapt and create different methods to create scoring opportunities. But overall our forward entries at times are still to often long bombs rather than using skills to hit up a free option inside 50. It’s a work in progress. The difference maker would be a reliable marking target I50 and some more efficient ball use going inside 50. 

Out of last nights game there are a few more concerns for me, we allowed Carlton to score 5 goals from Centre Clearance which used to be a strong part of our game.

Another concern was the way that Carlton messed with our zone defence in the first quarter and were able to take 3 marks for goals. Their ability to take inside 50 marks in that period was the game difference in my opinion.

Following that the game was an arm wrestle and we had to push Petracca forward to generate scores which moves him out of the midfield. We’d get some momentum but then Carlton would score out of the centre bounce again. The loss of Brayshaw is a big blow as he could cover many positions for us tactically. 
 

I may change my opinion if McAdam and Melksham can start making a difference for us in the forward line when they come in. At the moment we seem too reliant on our defence to win games for us. 

 

I suppose I expected a slow start due to the break differential so the marks inside 50 didn't really phase me in q1 as they then only took another 4 for the game. Not too bad considering the 'firepower' that they have in the twin towers. We had 2 more marks i50 than they did!

If they had continued to do so I would be much more worried. But we adjusted as we always do in those situations and it wasnt an issue for the rest of the game.

You're never going to be able to stop a team scoring completely and dees won't be happy to concede 12 when 10 is the target. But it is worth noting that Carlton finished their work at a level well above afl average. 

I certainly agree that we need to improve with our transition into attacking 50, but with mcadam to come in, maybe melksham as well, Petty to keep getting better (which of course is up to debate, I certainly think he will keep trending upwards as confidence in his foot and ability grows) and oliver to continue getting better, I think this will happen. I hope bowey can come back and find some form too, he can play a big part in this with his skillset as can Salem. 

Obviously at the end of the day a big part of it all will come down to which teams cop injuries and where, doesn't take an expert to know that we were always going to struggle last year with half the forwardline going down. Pretty wild that we were still close to winning our finals despite this. 

I will always believe that relying on defence is much better than relying on attack. We clearly are trying to improve our consistency with ball movement though and think there is a lot of improvement to come from us in this regard.

Need a lot of luck as any team does but I think if we do get some luck we are as well placed as any of the top teams to take advantage.

Sorry for rambling! Just happy to have a great team to follow

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

48 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

We had enough I50s last night and territory over the whole game to kick a winning score. That has been our issue now for 3 years.

2024 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2024 Average Melboure gpg = 11.8

 

2023 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2023 Average Melboure gpg = 12.8

 

2022 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2022 Average Melboure gpg = 12.5

 

2021 Average AFL goals per game = 11.5

2021 Average Melboure gpg = 12.9

Edited May 10 by Engorged Onion

[binman 38,765]

3 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

2024 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2024 Average Melboure gpg = 11.8

 

2023 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2023 Average Melboure gpg = 12.8

 

2022 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2022 Average Melboure gpg = 12.5

 

2021 Average AFL goals per game = 11.5

2021 Average Melboure gpg = 12.9

#Demon myths 

[Bonkers 918]

3 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

2024 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2024 Average Melboure gpg = 11.8

 

2023 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2023 Average Melboure gpg = 12.8

 

2022 Average AFL goals per game = 12.1

2022 Average Melboure gpg = 12.5

What do those stats prove about winning games when you have more territory and more I50s than your opponent but don’t win the game?