Finals 2016

[hells bells 2,023]

34 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Have you seen "The Hustler"?

No haven't seen it.

[boydie 653]

14 hours ago, DemonLad5 said:

Just did the ladder predictor. Tried to give us the best case scenario while still being realistic

I have us beating Carlton by 30 points this week, and Sydney beating North by the same margin. Among the other round 22 results I've got Hawthorn beating West Coast by 12, Collingwood beating GCS by 12 and St Kilda beating Richmond by 12.

This puts us 1 game behind North, with their percentage (106.3) ahead of our percentage (106.2) by 0.01%

The following week, I have us somehow edging out the Cats by 1 point at Simmonds. That leaves Saturday nights clash between North Melbourne and GWS. The Giants win a close one by 12 points. Meaning the Cats' consequence for losing earlier in the day is they have coughed up their top 4 spot to GWS. With a 1 point win we scrape past North Melbourne by 0.06% and play Geelong at the MCG in an elimination final

I had something similar, I did us beating Carlton by 30 points and the Cats by 12 which got us to 106.5%.

Then North losing to Sydney by 30 and GWS by 12 sees them finishing on 105.3%.

I then got curious and thought what if both our wins were by 12 points which sees us edging North by a mere 0.02%, dare to dream, boys, dare to dream.

[Binmans PA 26,576]

11 minutes ago, boydie said:

I had something similar, I did us beating Carlton by 30 points and the Cats by 12 which got us to 106.5%.

Then North losing to Sydney by 30 and GWS by 12 sees them finishing on 105.3%.

I then got curious and thought what if both our wins were by 12 points which sees us edging North by a mere 0.02%, dare to dream, boys, dare to dream.

I think two important things must happen this weekend. 1) we take care of Carlton. Obviously, by more the better, but a win will do. 5-6 goals would be good enough. 2) a strong Sydney team peaking as they always do in the lead up to the finals with Tippet back in, spank North by 7-10 goals.

I think a Sydney win is almost a certainty. They're brilliant at this time of year. We just have to take care of Carlton, however that happens.

[DubDee 21,493]

10 minutes ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

I think two important things must happen this weekend. 1) we take care of Carlton. Obviously, by more the better, but a win will do. 5-6 goals would be good enough. 2) a strong Sydney team peaking as they always do in the lead up to the finals with Tippet back in, spank North by 7-10 goals.

I think a Sydney win is almost a certainty. They're brilliant at this time of year. We just have to take care of Carlton, however that happens.

I wish I had your confidence, but I can sense a win for North coming.  not sure why but North are due and will be fired up and its down in Tassie.  

what a let down that would be

[Red and Bluebeard 2,049]

2 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

To the people saying that it will somehow be better to miss the finals than make it, just know youre in good company - Damian Barrett said the same thing

It is the stupidest thing I have ever heard

The Dees debunked that theory back in '87. I recall back in the dark days of the early 80's how important it was perceived to be to recruit players with finals experience. Shane Zantuck was one such, as were several others. Coaches would often talk about a team having X players with finals experience, as if that made them harder to beat. Then we came along in 1987, scraped in and then flogged North and Sydney with a team that had no finals experience at all IIRC, or at best very little. This mean the 'Finals experience is necessary to progress theory' was blown to smithereens ...

That is not to deny that in the 20 or so years of the final 8, the premiers have almost always come from a team finishing in the top 4. But records are there to be broken!

[Thrice 216]

2 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

To the people saying that it will somehow be better to miss the finals than make it, just know youre in good company - Damian Barrett said the same thing

It is the stupidest thing I have ever heard

Of course Purple would say that: he's the most one-eyed North supporter in the media. 

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

12 minutes ago, Thrice said:

Of course Purple would say that: he's the most one-eyed North supporter in the media. 

Even sweeter knocking them out of finals.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Devil is in the Detail

[Sir Why You Little 35,119]

Both Martin Blake and Barrett are Nought Supporters

any wonder they would spew such crap?

Oh yes and Noughts form of 3-8 (soon to be 3-10) is real solid September form

if we make it, We make it and Nought don't

Simple. 

[Ricky P 757]

2 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

To the people saying that it will somehow be better to miss the finals than make it, just know youre in good company - Damian Barrett said the same thing

It is the stupidest thing I have ever heard

It's honestly absurd.

[Bay Riffin 1,427]

16 hours ago, Macca said:

If anything is going to cost the team it will be the North loss.  The quintessential 8 point game.

We could have won the North encounter and only a bit of inexperience cost us - we certainly didn't play poorly that day.  I believe that loss propelled the team forward anyway.  The players started playing with real confidence and belief from that moment.

The other point about the season is the amount of bad days that we've had ... I'd say we've had about 5 - 6 games where we weren't completely switched on.  And probably only 2 of those 5 - 6 games were shockers.

Again, you'd take that at the start of the season when factoring in that we were going to play well or very well in the other 14 games. 

5 of our losses have included narrow losses to North & the Eagles, 2 x small losses to the Hawks & Crows and we weren't disgraced against the doggies either.  It's fair to say that the win over the Lions was an average win but we've won 9 other games in impressive fashion, all things considered.

One of the major factors that must be considered is how young & inexperienced the team has been all season.

We're in bonus time ... playing with house money.  A free hit.

disagree. we were 50/50 to win that, just like how we took the points against Gold coast.

The real travesty is the Weagles game, when the umpires right royally stuffed us by playing a host of frees to the losing side in West Coast in the last quarter, enabling them to kick a vital goal in the last to just pip us. We were definitely the best side that day.

[boydie 653]

1 hour ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

I think two important things must happen this weekend. 1) we take care of Carlton. Obviously, by more the better, but a win will do. 5-6 goals would be good enough. 2) a strong Sydney team peaking as they always do in the lead up to the finals with Tippet back in, spank North by 7-10 goals.

I think a Sydney win is almost a certainty. They're brilliant at this time of year. We just have to take care of Carlton, however that happens.

I'm a little concerned about the GWS game, but there's still 2 matches to get through this round before I should even worry about that. I'd be more comfortable if North had to play them over there. 

[Cards13 9,117]

Sooooo in the spirit of not getting ahead of ourselves... All things going to plan and Norf lose this weekend, we belt Carlton and get over the line against the Cats. I think it would be hilarious if a huge contingent of Dees fans (in our Dees gear) head along to the Norf v GWS game that night cheering loudly for GWS (besides Scully of course).

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Sam Gibson's 105 consecutive game run is likely to come to an end after he broke his nose in the gym apparently.

[Daily Dose of Demons 155]

Either way this year has been a success. We have shown to potential recruits that the form is there and that we will be a good side next year. If we do make the finals we earn valuable experience and also more media exposure. If we don't we start preseason early and get more learning into our younger players, either way this year was a big one for the club. 

(But it would be really nice to attend a final)

[Copuchas 756]

If you want a laugh, read this thread chronologically from the get-go!!  

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/

[What 18,810]

8 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

If you want a laugh, read this thread chronologically from the get-go!!  

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/

this post made me lol   https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/page-8#post-46064792

[John Demonic 4,929]

1 hour ago, Cards13 said:

Sooooo in the spirit of not getting ahead of ourselves... All things going to plan and Norf lose this weekend, we belt Carlton and get over the line against the Cats. I think it would be hilarious if a huge contingent of Dees fans (in our Dees gear) head along to the Norf v GWS game that night cheering loudly for GWS (besides Scully of course).

That sounds like a fun night BUT you'd probably rile up the Kangaroos players and fans and GWS probably would be too fragile too quell momentum with having to lift a finger outside Spotless. Would be great to hear extra cheers for GWS though, but don't be a Hawthorn supporter; mocking opposition supporters and bronx cheering, hate that kinda [censored].

Edited August 17, 2016 by johndemons

[Cards13 9,117]

28 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

this post made me lol   https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/page-8#post-46064792

"Brian Fontana said: ↑

If we cant win one of our last two and Melbourne beat cats at skilled they deserve to make it more than we do anyway

Click to expand...

When the fixture is so rigged there's no such thing as "deserves", but if they can beat Hawks and Geelong and boost their percentage along the way to get past North, good luck to them. I think there is more chance of North beating GWS at Docklands than Melbourne winning in Geelong, but if both results go against us, as well as next week's game in Hobart, so be it. "

 

Sorry how many games did they play in a row at Docklands to start the year, how many of the top 8 did they play?

[Dr. Gonzo 22,682]

2 hours ago, Cards13 said:

Sooooo in the spirit of not getting ahead of ourselves... All things going to plan and Norf lose this weekend, we belt Carlton and get over the line against the Cats. I think it would be hilarious if a huge contingent of Dees fans (in our Dees gear) head along to the Norf v GWS game that night cheering loudly for GWS (besides Scully of course).

Cheer GWS but Scully still cops the boos and abuse? That would be funny 

[Sir Why You Little 35,119]

55 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

If you want a laugh, read this thread chronologically from the get-go!!  

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/

That was marvellous. Took them till page 7 to even realize we existed!

[Deemented Are Go! 3,643]

Planets and stars aligning? 

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-08-17/gibson-hurt-in-gym-mishap

 

[CBDees 3,162]

5 minutes ago, Deemented Are Go! said:

Planets and stars aligning? 

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-08-17/gibson-hurt-in-gym-mishap

 

Our team for the lead-in to the finals!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

In this really interesting thread on BigFooty which is all about probabilities, a week or so ago Melbourne were effectively a 0% chance of making the finals and that is now up to around 6%.

[Copuchas 756]

57 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

In this really interesting thread on BigFooty which is all about probabilities, a week or so ago Melbourne were effectively a 0% chance of making the finals and that is now up to around 6%.

I've seen the 6% assessment in the article in the Hun that draws on this same analysis.  I have to say that I don't understand.  If you assess that we're a 70/30 chance of beating Carlton and Sydney are a 70/30 chance of beating North (which is reflective of the remarkably similar market odds for both games: 3.35 / 1.33 for NTH / SYD and 3.60 / 1.33 for CAR / MEL) and you assume these results eliminate the percentage differential (5 goal margins required so not unreasonable), the equation comes down to two matches.  Haven't seen the odds for NTH / GWS but let's assume they're 50/50 (arguably generous to Norf?).  For the Dees to be a 6% overall chance, that infers that we are rated a very low probability of rolling Geelong.  This is where all these models which draw from historical data fall apart.  The current Melbourne and GWS sides and form bear little or no resemblance to the data from which the chance percentage is being derived....   

[Diamond_Jim 12,063]

if you multiply out all the probabilities 6% is about right.

Remember for us to get in 4 events have to go the right way... even if they were all a 50% probability the chance of all four events going that way is 1in 8 or around 13%.