The Jesse Hogan Panic Room - all contract talk here

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

He'll stay.

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 586]

i really hope that jesse stays, he's a special player (despite the dismissive attitude that some posters have towards his talent and personality). i agree with the sentiment that the relationship he has with his dad is paramount and surpasses any allegiance that he has to the dees. as such, i wouldn't have any negative feelings towards him for leaving, but i would be pretty upset. after having a kick to kick with him when the new branding was launched last november, he seems like a really good kid. very young, but a positive and competitive guy. i sure as hell wouldn't want to make the tough decision that is in front of him right now... whatever happens, we will either have a serious piece of our team signed up or a few round one draft picks and a good player to come in and balance the ledger.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,226]

Who's in charge of improving Jesse's kicking action when having shots on goal? If it's going to be so easy to fix as many think why have so many players over the years struggled with it their whole career.

 

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,284]

I also think that going home to spend time with his family may help sway him to stay.

It would be tough but I would imagine any parent would ask what their son really wants, and advise them that life is short and a footy career is shorter so make the most of it.

[Flamingdees 227]

23 minutes ago, Macca said:

If Jesse asks for a trade then the club will asking for more than 2 first round draft picks. 

Half of all first round draft picks are busts and only about 1 in 8 top 5 picks end up being genuine A grade players ... these are facts, not opinions.  On average, 6 - 7 out of all top 10 picks don't get to play 100 games.

There are no guarantees with drafting and it's feasible that we could lose out completely in a 'worse case' scenario.

Then there's the time and development required for any draftee to be factored in as well - another disadvantage.  It takes 3 - 5 years for a draftee to his straps - why should we be placed at a disadvantage?  In my eyes, we should be looking at being placed at an advantage.  He's our asset.

2 x top end draft picks and a good player as a minimum.  And that player they give up can't be a player that wouldn't hurt them if they lost that player.  But the club should push for more.

Totally agree Macca.  Draft can be a lottery. Look at the Syliva and McLean draft. Gumbleton and Hansen. Morobitto only played 30 odd games and Toumpas, don't get me started on that. 

We have already put three years into Hogan so basically we will be doing that again with another kid who might delevop or might not. 

I'd certainly be playing hard ball and I'd bet WCE will be in the mix too. 

Sick of our club getting screwed over with players wanting to move. We got bugger all for Scott Thimpson and Farmer, we were lucky Frawley was a free agent and our trade for Howe ended up playing seconds footy for a big part of the year. 

It's very hard to place a value on someone like Hogan who could be a champion tall forward. Players like that are invaluable. Two top five picks at a minimum would be my asking price. 

Praying he stays....

[Sir Why You Little 36,774]

25 minutes ago, A F said:

I think if Jesse stays now, fans will fall in love with him again. If he signs a 5 to 6 year deal, supporters can then invest in Jesse. I hope he does, as swapping clubs may bring him even more pressure and anxiety.

Footy will hopefully take his mind off things. It also helps us that Freo had an ordinary year and there are question marks over whether Lyon can develop players. If you compare them with the talent we have, there's no way Jesse would go there under normal circumstances.

If he stays at Melbourne, he gets the support of his mates in trying times, that he's formed close friendships with. If he moves to Freo, he has to start friendship building all over again. This, in a time where he needs mates by his side the most. Logically it would be the safer decision for his mental health to stay at Melbourne.

Of course, when such emotion is involved in a decision being made, logic can go out the door.

But I hope Jesse stays as I've no doubt his mates love him.

You make some good points. 

But i believe (and that is all it is) that The Shockers have a massive deal on the table "To come home"

Otherwise Jesse would have already signed to stay with his mates. 

Happy to be wrong. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,226]

14 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

You make some good points. 

But i believe (and that is all it is) that The Shockers have a massive deal on the table "To come home"

Otherwise Jesse would have already signed to stay with his mates. 

Happy to be wrong. 

Tend to agree, I would ask though how do they land Hogan, McCarthy and Hill?

Who is Rory Lobb linked to?

[Macca 16,773]

2 minutes ago, Flamingdees said:

Totally agree Macca.  Draft can be a lottery. Look at the Syliva and McLean draft. Gumbleton and Hansen. Morobitto only played 30 odd games and Toumpas, don't get me started on that. 

We have already put three years into Hogan so basically we will be doing that again with another kid who might delevop or might not. 

I'd certainly be playing hard ball and I'd bet WCE will be in the mix too. 

Sick of our club getting screwed over with players wanting to move. We got bugger all for Scott Thimpson and Farmer, we were lucky Frawley was a free agent and our trade for Howe ended up playing seconds footy for a big part of the year. 

It's very hard to place a value on someone like Hogan who could be a champion tall forward. Players like that are invaluable. Two top five picks at a minimum would be my asking price. 

Praying he stays....

And just to back up your thoughts and mine, I did some research a couple of years back about the Drafts from 2000 - 2009 ... the results were quite damning when 'expectations' were taken into account.

The draft isn't the gold-mine that many believe it is ... there's hits and misses everywhere.  We shouldn't be bargained into a situation where we're holding our breath for 3 - 5 years.  That doesn't seem like a fair trade to me.

However, like you 'FD', I'm hoping Jesse stays and re-signs.  If not, get the best deal possible.

[John Crow Batty 8,832]

3 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Tend to agree, I would ask though how do they land Hogan, McCarthy and Hill?

Who is Rory Lobb linked to?

There is the possibility of offers from WC and also from other Victorian clubs with deep pockets.

Edited September 17, 2016 by america de cali

[daisycutter 29,491]

56 minutes ago, Macca said:

If Jesse asks for a trade then the club will asking for more than 2 first round draft picks. 

Half of all first round draft picks are busts or virtual busts and only about 1 in 4 top 5 picks end up being B+ or A grade players (that converts to a 25% chance)  These are facts, not opinions.  On average, 6 - 7 out of all top 10 picks don't get to play 100 games.

There are no guarantees with drafting and it's feasible that we could lose out completely in a 'worse case' scenario.

Then there's the time and development required for any draftee to be factored in as well - another disadvantage.  It takes 3 - 5 years for a draftee to his straps - why should we be placed at a disadvantage?  In my eyes, we should be looking at being placed at an advantage.  He's our asset.

2 x top end draft picks and a good player as a minimum.  And that player they give up can't be a player that wouldn't hurt them if they lost that player.  But the club should push for more.

won't freo have to cop up a high pick for mccarthy (sp?) to gws? not sure where they are going to get all these high picks from.

[Macca 16,773]

Just now, daisycutter said:

won't freo have to cop up a high pick for mccarthy (sp?) to gws? not sure where they are going to get all these high picks from.

Well, they might have to have a fire sale

None of us were thinking that we'd end up with picks 3 & 7 in last years draft either ... that came out of the blue. 

Don't forget that the Northern state teams may be happy to trade away their first round draft picks for 2nd or 3rd round picks so as to accumulate 'points' towards the academy players.  Unless they've tweaked things, we can expect more of the same.

 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,226]

12 minutes ago, america de cali said:

There is the possibility of offers from WC and also from other Victorian clubs with deep pockets.

Sorry, with regards to Lobb, Hogan or both?

[Satyriconhome 10,477]

3 hours ago, sisso said:

I'm starting to wonder if it's really worth drafting players from WA no matter how good they are...the go home risk is too great

Nev Jetta and Dean Kent say hello

[John Crow Batty 8,832]

58 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Sorry, with regards to Lobb, Hogan or both?

Hogan.  If Freo can't make a deal then WC is always in the picture.  And opportunistic clubs will have a good look if they sense he is not a 100% committed to us whatever the reason.

Edited September 17, 2016 by america de cali

[daisycutter 29,491]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Well, they might have to have a fire sale

None of us were thinking that we'd end up with picks 3 & 7 in last years draft either ... that came out of the blue. 

Don't forget that the Northern state teams may be happy to trade away their first round draft picks for 2nd or 3rd round picks so as to accumulate 'points' towards the academy players.  Unless they've tweaked things, we can expect more of the same.

 

the afl have changed the rules on some of those points type swaps. i don't understand the specifics and differences though. maybe someone can enlighten us?

if hogan is to go to freo then freo have to find picks for hogan, mccarthy and hill (at least), all of who would attract high pick selections. their only other choice is to trade some top players. i'm still struggling to see how they do it. if hogan goes back to wa for family reasons then we are limited to 2 clubs and what they can offer. it seems under those conditions and where we wouldn't block him from going for family reasons, that the most likely outcome is we are forced to accept unders (despite all the keyboard jockeys here talking about rich rewards and being in such a good strong bargaining position). if he decides to go home (and it makes sense to do it end of this year) then i think we are at a great disadvantage.

[Macca 16,773]

6 hours ago, daisycutter said:

the afl have changed the rules on some of those points type swaps. i don't understand the specifics and differences though. maybe someone can enlighten us?

if hogan is to go to freo then freo have to find picks for hogan, mccarthy and hill (at least), all of who would attract high pick selections. their only other choice is to trade some top players. i'm still struggling to see how they do it. if hogan goes back to wa for family reasons then we are limited to 2 clubs and what they can offer. it seems under those conditions and where we wouldn't block him from going for family reasons, that the most likely outcome is we are forced to accept unders (despite all the keyboard jockeys here talking about rich rewards and being in such a good strong bargaining position). if he decides to go home (and it makes sense to do it end of this year) then i think we are at a great disadvantage.

If you have that stance, then I can see where you are coming from.  The club may or may not take that same stance though - we might decide to play hard ball and besides all that, I'd be surprised if there isn't a bidding war between at least the 2 WA clubs.  And it only takes 2 active bidders in an auction to escalate the price.

There are any number of possible outcomes and I wouldn't rule out any sort of outcome.  These matters often don't resort to kind ... I'm not saying you're wrong either.  Nothing would surprise me - that's my stance. 

Also, we can't rule out Freo giving up good assets to acquire Jesse ... they may know that that is what it is going to take.

Or Jesse may re-sign and all this talk becomes academic.

Edited September 17, 2016 by Macca

[DemonOX 8,743]

4 hours ago, Number of the Beast said:

Hi fellow Demons, Just wanting to pass on a chance encounter I had at the Carlton game, it does not serve as an indicator to whichever path young Jesse chooses but it might fill gaps in for some.....

I bumped into Tom Hogan , Jesse's dad at the G. A really down to earth bloke, we had a chat and I wished him the best. I did not ask him the obvious, felt it would be a betrayal of his trust as he started the conversation with me. The striking thing with Tom is he looks quite old, he had been suffering from some illness - you can tell, I should know, the last 6 years I have battled cancer (hopefully beaten it) and my body is significantly farked as a result of it..We joked about the weather, talked about Perth and there is no doubt that young Jesse loves MFC and has strong bonds. His father was also pretty happy with the club. As has already been stated, it will come down to whether he wants to be home with his Dad and family or stay with his mates at the club and that is it in a nutshell.

 

Hope all goes well in ur recovery and that u have beatin this barstard of a disease. 

O and welcome to the nut house!

[DemonOX 8,743]

Tbh I am at the point that I don't care what he does but i just want him to make a decision before this years draft and be done with it. 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,510]

2 hours ago, Uncle Fester said:

He'll stay.

Hard to argue with that Fester!

[Tony Tea 2,806]

I've been worried ever since he signed that token 1 year extension.

[Number of the Beast 80]

26 minutes ago, DemonOX said:

Hope all goes well in ur recovery and that u have beatin this barstard of a disease. 

O and welcome to the nut house!

Thanks! I must admit It's taken a few years to take the plunge  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Tony Tea said:

I've been worried ever since he signed that token 1 year extension.

It was a two year extension.

[Number of the Beast 80]

2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

won't freo have to cop up a high pick for mccarthy (sp?) to gws? not sure where they are going to get all these high picks from.

I can't work it out, the goal posts change every year with the corporate suits at Docklands fudging it as they go along.

[Flamingdees 227]

Reckon it's about a 50/50 for him staying. 

Agree would rather get it done this year if he decides to leave and think we will get a deal done this year if he's intentions are to leave  

Could not see him going to anyone but Freo it WCE. 

Dont think you can put a value on a player like Jesse so two top five picks would still be unders in my view but in reality we would be lucky to get close to that. 

We might just see Freo trying to trade back into the first round this year with a pick say 15 to 18. Maybe a trade could then look something like Freo pick 3 this year and next years first round (hopefully pick 5 or so) for Hogan. Still don't like it......

My feeling is we should know his intentions in the next two weeks. 

[Macca 16,773]

1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

the afl have changed the rules on some of those points type swaps. i don't understand the specifics and differences though. maybe someone can enlighten us?

No more hidden picks: AFL alters the draft bidding system

Quote

The AFL has ruled that the number of selections a club holds going into the national draft must match the number of vacant spots on their primary list.

The league hopes the change will create less incentive for clubs to trade down the draft in order to accumulate draft "points", as some did last year.

Northern state teams trading away a first round draft pick therefore doesn't have the 'benefits' that it once had.  Accumulating points with various 2nd & 3rd round picks comes at a price ... unless these same clubs have 2 - 3 rookies to upgrade with 'end of draft' picks. 

That changes things with regards to the currency that Freo or the Eagles may have to barter with.  I see a stalemate looming if Jesse requests a trade to either of the WA clubs.