MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 4

[Demonland 71,256]

COMING SOON by Whispering Jack

I have lost count of the number of times the old adage about the need to ignore pre season form has been proven to be correct and this year's AFL NAB Challenge is yet another case in point. Fremantle, Melbourne and Collingwood were the only undefeated teams in that series but the former has yet to record a win in the opening three rounds of AFL competition while the other two have managed only one win each and in both cases, they fell in by a solitary point. 

This week those other two front runners and old time traditional Victorian rivals meet in what will be a do or die struggle at the MCG. The loser of the Magpies v Demons clash will be sitting in tatters close to the foot of the table while the winner will have some hope restored for the season ahead.  Strangely enough for the AFL and despite the early disappointing form of their respective teams' performances, both coaches can rest comfortably in the knowledge that their positions are safe for this year at least. Paul Roos is departing anyway as part of the succession plan he set up which has installed Simon Goodwin as coach in waiting. Nathan Buckley was reappointed to his position just three weeks ago and whilst three weeks is a long time in football, Eddie McGuire keeps on insisting that his man is safe.

There's been little to differentiate the two teams' performances to date this season so, in determining the final outcome of this battle, little things can mean a lot. As between these competitors, Collingwood will gain the advantage of Tribunal outcomes because it stands to benefit from the return of Steele Sidebottom from suspension while Melbourne's Bernie Vince who was good last week against North Melbourne is out this week. Last year's best and fairest winner Vince, starred when these teams last met and he will be sorely missed this weekend.

On the other side of "little" things are the ruck battles. Melbourne has been getting great value from Max Gawn who comprehensively beat the AFL's number one in this area last week but for the second week in a row, the opposition exposed the Demons' weakness in back up tall timber in the last line of defence. Two weeks ago, they couldn't counter Joe Daniher's height at full forward and in Hobart, it was Goldstein who was the destroyer with five goals.

Melbourne has not been as dangerous up forward with its own talls despite the fact that for the first time in ages, it is regularly getting the ball inside its own forward 50 more times than the opposition. That statistic is the diametrically opposite to what was taking place with this team only two years ago and it is what contributes to my belief that there will be major improvements to the team's overall performances coming soon. Perhaps, even as soon as this Sunday. 

Melbourne to win by 15 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG Sunday 17 April 2016 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Collingwood 146 wins Melbourne 80 wins 5 drawn

At the MCG Collingwood 79 wins Melbourne 55 wins 3 drawn

Last Five Meetings Collingwood 4 wins Melbourne 1 win

The Coaches: Buckley 2 wins Roos 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports 3, Channel 7 live at 3.00pm

Radio - Triple M 3AW 

THE BETTING

Collingwood $1.53 to win Melbourne $2.50 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 13.13.91 defeated Collingwood 7.12.54 at MCG in Round 18, 2015

The Demons shrugged off some indifferent form to record their first win over the Magpies in seven years - a comprehensive 37-point victory that had many supporters scratching their heads over why the team was unable to consistently produce such form on a regular basis. Jesse Hogan and Bernie Vince kicked two goals each and the latter was best on the ground.

THE TEAMS 

COLLINGWOOD 

B: Ben Sinclair, Nathan Brown, Tom Langdon

HB: Goldsack, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey

C: Adam Oxley, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom

HF: Travis Varcoe, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey

F: Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke, Jeremy Howe

FOLL: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams

I/C: James Aish, Jarryd Blair, Jack Crisp, Levi Greenwood

EMG: Mason Cox, Matthew Goodyear, Brent Macaffer,

IN: Steele Sidebottom, Alan Toovey, Travis Varcoe

OUT: Matthew Goodyear (omitted), Brayden Maynard (hamstring), Marley Williams (foot)

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Tomas Bugg

HB: Lynden Dunn, Heritier Lumumba, Christian Salem

C: James Harmes, Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver

HF: Jack Watts, Sam Frost, Matt Jones

F: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Ben Kennedy

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Cameron Pedersen, Josh Wagner

EMG: Jack Grimes, Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch

In: Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Cam Pedersen

Out: Aaron vandenBerg (ankle), Bernie Vince (suspension), Billy Stretch (omitted)

New: Jayden Hunt (21, Brighton Grammar) 

[CBDees 3,167]

I am looking forward to Sunday's match against Collingwood and the possibility of sneaking into the eight. The thing I particularly enjoy about Collingwood matches is that they inevitably televised are free to air, meaning my father, in his mid nineties (and a paid-up  MFC member until this year) can watch his beloved Demons in comfort without having to battle through the Collingwood scum, enroute from the station. Go Dees!

Late update: My brother is driving up from Lorne and collecting Dad and bringing him to the match via taxi. I have arranged a guest pass into the Pavilion for him so a great day ensures.

Edited April 14, 2016 by CBDees

[dees189227 12,367]

Well 2 changes at least. Vince out and now Vandenberg will miss with an ankle injury. MFC just tweeted out. Dam what is going on with ankles. Hope Jeffy comes back. 

[Deecisive 1,709]

Another game we should win, I hope our guys have turned the corner and are going out to win every battle, every kick, every game.

[Nasher 33,607]

I allowed myself to get carried away with expectations and have ridden a hell of a rollercoaster in the last two weeks as a result.  On paper and form we should be well on top of this mob, however I think for now I'll revert to the 2015 mantra of "cautious optimism".

[Ted Lasso 19,275]

Will be very interesting to see how this game plays out. 

I expect Pendles to play mostly off half back again, simply because we have so many tough inside mids who would be pretty keen to test out those ribs, so i'd play someone like Watts or Kent on him, someone who he has to respect and can make him play as a defender. 

Last year sidebottom had 21 touches in the first half, then Daniel Cross was moved onto him and he only had 4 more for the game, i'd start the game off with Bugg on him, seems he doesn't handle a tag very well. 

Treloar is in great form but so is Viney so i'd let them go head to head. 

Crisp i think with go to Chunk, though it would be tempting to put him on Oliver i reckon, the young fella has been a driving force for us from the midfield with fantastic clearance and contested numbers. 

Fingers crossed Cloke continues his horrible run of form. 

Jetta should get the job and i think is more then capable of beating Fasolo, he looks to me like the most likely to kick 5-6 goals and be a match winner. 

I think the really big advantage we're going to have will be the midfield, i think we have a much deeper midfield because of the Pies injuries and we also have an inform Max Gawn who i expect to really dominate Brodie Grundy, we saw against North for the first time that i can remember Max being extremely damaging with his hit outs to advantage, i think it resulted in us scoring 6 goals or something last week, so a repeat dose of that and we should have a good win. 

Jeffy back will be pretty handy and i quite like the form that Kent, Watts and Hogan seem to be building, i really love the way Watts and Hogan seem to be working together, Jesse himself has said when he see's the ball in Jacks hands his eyes light up.

I really liked H's game last week, i know not everyone did but he really added some run and spark to the side which makes a difference, just needs to work on his decisions but i think that comment probably applies for every player in the team.

Really big week for Dom Tyson, i feels he's been going okay, but he is capable of soooooo much more, he's good enough to be getting 30 plus and a goal a game, and using it really well, i think he's averaging around 22 touches at the moment ( someone i'm sure knows this ) so a little below what i'd expect and making some bad decisions and being a little lazy with disposal, if he gets anywhere near his best form it will go a long way towards us winning the next few games.

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,060]

Fasolo: Round 1, poor; Round 2, brilliant; Round 3, poor. Uh oh!

Break the run, Nev.

[3183 Dee 2,843]

This will be a massive test of the team's mettle. Over the past few years, the Pies have used these games to run themselves into form. We've already been stung once this year by believing we were too good to lose, let's hope lessons have been learned and the Demons come out hard, aggressive and full of run, like last Sunday.

Vanders is not a great out - looks like his ankle issue was bothering him last week. Will it just be Garlett and Gus in for Vince and Vanders?

Edited April 13, 2016 by 3183 Dee
Who is Banders?!

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,325]

It's scripted perfectly, Collingwood followed by Richmond. 

Please let it happen.

[monoccular 17,411]

I hope that at least some players and others at the club view this forum.

You guys let your long suffering fans and supporters, the club, and yourselves down big time by taking the EssenDrug game as a foregone conclusion.

How about just beginning to regain our trust by playing four quarters of hard, uncompromising footy like you did from late in the first quarter last week?

If you do what you did round 2 nobody will ever trust you again. 

JUST DO IT!

[In Harmes Way 7,735]

10 hours ago, Peter Griffen said:

Really big week for Dom Tyson, i feels he's been going okay, but he is capable of soooooo much more, he's good enough to be getting 30 plus and a goal a game, and using it really well, i think he's averaging around 22 touches at the moment ( someone i'm sure knows this ) so a little below what i'd expect and making some bad decisions and being a little lazy with disposal, if he gets anywhere near his best form it will go a long way towards us winning the next few games.

Agree with this big time PG. for info, average disposals 20, 1 goal for the year (although good in score assists), at 76% DE which isn't too bad. So a bit more of the pill and a bit more focus on pressuring the opposition - average tackles 2.3 (7 over 3 games) is where I'd like to see effort.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

This is a really interesting game. The media are trying to paint Collingwood as favourites and that this is a game they should never drop, but considering their form over the first 3 weeks, this is no better than a toss of the coin for them.

Vince and VDB out, but the likes of Garlett (hopefully) and Brayshaw in balance that out somewhat.

Sidebottom is a big in for them, and I think I heard they were going to rush Varcoe back, which reeked a little of desperation to me, considering he is coming off a hammy and hasn't played a single game at any level for 5 or 6 weeks.

[praha 11,227]

We should smash them but I predict Cloke to kick 5.0, Pendles to play back into form, Sidebotton to destroy Hogan and Melbourne to kick 3.12 for the day.

[Demon Spofforth 286]

11 hours ago, Peter Griffen said:

Fingers crossed Cloke continues his horrible run of form.

Geez I hope so. He seems to find form against us with his once-a-season goalkicking radar being on.

[Demon Spofforth 286]

As with many, cautiously optimistic as its difficult to ever be 'confident' with this team after the Essendon debacle. If we can get on top early I reckon the Pies heads could drop as they and Buckley are under a lot of pressure. Bernie and VDB big outs for us but expect Gawn to give our midfield first use and hopefully Hoges and Watts are on.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

The problems Collingwood face this year stem from their senior players dropping off the pace and not providing the usual level of quality to support their younger players. If we can reduce the impact of Pendlebury, Cloke, Fasolo Varcoe, and players of that ilk, we go a long way to winning the game. Fast Ball movement into the forward line and strong pressure on their defenders is also crucial for us this Sunday.

Come on boys Lets choke the life out of this mob !!!!!!!!!

[picket fence 17,032]

 

Posted just now · Report post

Ins: Garlett - Brayshaw- Pederson

Outs: Vince - Bugg - Frost

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FB: Jetta - Dunn - Wagner

HB: H - MCD - Salem

C: M.Jones - N.Jones - Stretch

HF: Watts - Pederson - Kent

FF: Kennedy - Hogan- Garlett

R: Gawn - Viney - Tyson

I: Oliver - Harmes - ANB - Brayshaw

A few thoughts

* Not sure Jeffy will be fit and if not HUNT comes in!

* Pederson replaces Frost who cannot play forward which also has dual effect of using Pedo as chop out for Max, when this occurs Hogan moves to CHF Jacky goes to FF and others rotate through HF

* Stretch keeps his place on a wing but needs to lift and eliminate errors

* ANB adds another dimension to forward mid field rotations

* Guss comes in for extra "Grunt" factor

A well balanced team to beat Collingwood I think!

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

 

Posted just now · Report post

Ins: Garlett - Brayshaw- Pederson

Outs: Vince - Bugg - Frost

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FB: Jetta - Dunn - Wagner

HB: H - MCD - Salem

C: M.Jones - N.Jones - Stretch

HF: Watts - Pederson - Kent

FF: Kennedy - Hogan- Garlett

R: Gawn - Viney - Tyson

I: Oliver - Harmes - ANB - Brayshaw

A few thoughts

* Not sure Jeffy will be fit and if not HUNT comes in!

* Pederson replaces Frost who cannot play forward which also has dual effect of using Pedo as chop out for Max, when this occurs Hogan moves to CHF Jacky goes to FF and others rotate through HF

* Stretch keeps his place on a wing but needs to lift and eliminate errors

* ANB adds another dimension to forward mid field rotations

* Guss comes in for extra "Grunt" factor

A well balanced team to beat Collingwood I think!

AVB is out as well.

[Undeeterred 3,117]

Part of the reason Cloke always kicks a tidal wave of goals on us is that he is smart enough to drag the wrong defender into the goal square. He's done it to Rivers (remember that fantastic game?) and McDonald so if we're smart enough to be more zonal and make sure that he either gets his kicks outside 50 on McDonald, or has to play on Dunn closer to goal, we should be fine. 

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

2 hours ago, pineapple dee said:

The problems Collingwood face this year stem from their senior players dropping off the pace and not providing the usual level of quality to support their younger players. If we can reduce the impact of Pendlebury, Cloke, Fasolo Varcoe, and players of that ilk, we go a long way to winning the game. Fast Ball movement into the forward line and strong pressure on their defenders is also crucial for us this Sunday.

Come on boys Lets choke the life out of this mob !!!!!!!!!

I think pressure is where it will be won. If we keep up the finatical pressure we were able to put on after qtr time against north we will win. If we dont then we still have a chance but will have to rely a little more on them playing poorly or kicking inaccuratly.

[Redleg 40,811]

Jake Niall on Fox Footy when discussing the Pies said " well the Melbourne game is a win."

[ManDee 7,124]

37 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

I think pressure is where it will be won. If we keep up the finatical pressure we were able to put on after qtr time against north we will win. If we dont then we still have a chance but will have to rely a little more on them playing poorly or kicking inaccuratly.

Sorry, I can't let them go. Fanatical.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

Just now, ManDee said:

Sorry, I can't let them go. Fanatical.

haha sorry man I have the english skills of a 4th grader (if that).

[Forest Demon 4,681]

28 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Jake Niall on Fox Footy when discussing the Pies said " well the Melbourne game is a win."

I am almost certain that media outlets are trying to pump this up as a certainty for Collingwood, so they can get even more mileage out of it next week if they lose.

I don't see how any sane football watcher could have Collingwood that far ahead of us on what we have seen so far.

Anyway, we will see Sunday.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

1 minute ago, Forest Demon said:

I am almost certain that media outlets are trying to pump this up as a certainty for Collingwood, so they can get even more mileage out of it next week if they lose.

Yes! this happens so much. Like WC in the grand final rematch. I couldnt believe so many people were saying that Hawthorn was gonna be 0-2! after 2 games at the G? please! was the easiest tip that round.