MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 16

[Wiseblood 24,637]

No worries alright. Next weeks changes - Grimes, Jordie, Toump

You forgot Terlich there Big Al.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Of course it's assumption, did you have to ask? 98% of stuff posted here is speculative.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

So assumption then? No worries.

I see where you are coming from, but it's hardly fair to call Stretch, ANB and Harmes as possible NQR players. Tyson, JKH and McDonald are also stiff. They may not be the players we want them to be but they certainly have plenty of time on their side to prove they are, and most of them have shown that they can do it.

yeah but I'm talking about this weeks game specifically

None of those 6 can you logically expect to put in a quality performance given where they are at, age or form wise

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I count 13 of those types on the Lions team

And you are being way too harsh on Garland who is rarely beaten

Same with Gawn and Tyson

Garland is way too easily defended around here

Regularly puts in shockers

[DemonOX 8,837]

Of course it's assumption, did you have to ask? 98% of stuff posted here is speculative.

I'd say it's more bullshitz rather than speculative Al

[Je Roos Salem 661]

We should give Jordie a farewell game. Or several to get his currency up. In fact let's just play the whole damn Casey team so their currency gets up

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

The only "name player" that I can think of in recent times who held off from signing all year before putting pen to paper was Cloke.

The only "name player" that I can think of in recent times who had the balls to say I'm off at years end was Phil Davis and subsequently dropped for the rest of the year.

We have had VB, Angus and Petracca (possibly others I can't recall) all extend their contracts. We've heard nothing with regards to the Toump.

[Skuit 10,031]

One thing I have been doing for a while is to look at the 22 prior to a game and count how many players I don't have full confidence in to play a game of AFL standard footy. If a player has had a rubbish season incontrast to seasons prior he still gets NQR cos its about form.This applies also if we are talking about kids who may very well look the kids but are unlikely to have a genuine impact. The higher the NQR factor the higher our chance of losing (obviously). This week, bolded NQRs:

Colin Garland , Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch

Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba

Aaron Vandenberg, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett

Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

Dom Tyson, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes

That's exactly half at 11, which worries me about our future, even though 6 of the 11 are still very young

For a long time being internet ignorant (and possibly dyslexic) I assumed NQR to mean 'not required' rather than Not Quite Right. None of our player are quite right. Skilled without any grunt or aggressive inside while lacking requisite foot-skills. Fantastic contested marks that can't kick straight or frustratingly the exact f'n opposite. Not Quite Right is a harsh determination for a few on your list compared to some others. Max is a potentially star ruckman slowly working on his previous deficiencies and Tmac was not last season but fairly recently in top form. Stretch, ANB and Harmes have barely played a handful of matches between them while Watts and Lamumba will never be quite right.

[Skuit 10,031]

Withdrawn - if as you've more recently suggested the post was specific to this week's game.

[dworship 3,343]

Of course it's assumption, did you have to ask? 98% of stuff posted here is speculative.

98%?

[Je Roos Salem 661]

One thing I have been doing for a while is to look at the 22 prior to a game and count how many players I don't have full confidence in to play a game of AFL standard footy. If a player has had a rubbish season incontrast to seasons prior he still gets NQR cos its about form.This applies also if we are talking about kids who may very well look the kids but are unlikely to have a genuine impact. The higher the NQR factor the higher our chance of losing (obviously). This week, bolded NQRs:

Colin Garland , Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch

Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba

Aaron Vandenberg, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett

Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

Dom Tyson, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes

That's exactly half at 11, which worries me about our future, even though 6 of the 11 are still very young

I think Cross is a role we need and Gawn is our best ruck option. I think McDonald is firm in his role too. Apart from that it's a fair assesment. I'd argue we're playing too many unproven young players who all had pretty poor games last week. Newton looked ok early in the season and looked as though he could play out the season but he's fallen off the radar, Fitzy played a couple of solid games in defence and Toumpas has been unlucky too If it weren't for significant injuries this season I think we could've made greater inroads into firming a best 22.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

98%?

That number was also speculative....at best.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I think Cross is a role we need and Gawn is our best ruck option. I think McDonald is firm in his role too. Apart from that it's a fair assesment. I'd argue we're playing too many unproven young players who all had pretty poor games last week. Newton looked ok early in the season and looked as though he could play out the season but he's fallen off the radar, Fitzy played a couple of solid games in defence and Toumpas has been unlucky too If it weren't for significant injuries this season I think we could've made greater inroads into firming a best 22.

Yes Cross has been a good aquisition and all, but the last 6 weeks or so he's been shocking. He gets in the right spots, buries into packs with no regard for his safety, puts his spine on the line to take grabs but then he just dishes it over, undoing all his good work. Watch the replay of last week, see how many times he punched a loose ball to the opposition's advantage, he's losing touch with the tempo of the game, which is only to be expected. In any case, I started a discussion about the future of our club, which he is clearly not a part of.

McDonald was the outright best KPD in the comp after about 8 rounds. Seriously. Since then, he has been an absolute liabilty. Only at Melbourne does this happen. Yep OK fellas lets lock in our FB, at least that's one thing we don't have to worry about. No more will we have to worry about mediocre opposition KFs taking us to the cleaners. OH wait, inexplicably, the guy has taken a bath from every star forward he's been assigned to for 2 months straight. Can someone explain to me how this is possible? Step right up Cloke and Daniher, you stink, but we have the minder for you to have a bit of a day out and cost the dees a game. Make no mistake, we would have beaten both the Pies and Dons had those key forwards not kicked bags and in both cases it falls squarely on the shoulders of Tom McDonald

So that's 2 guys that I have to take from the OK list to the NQR list.

[Adam The God 30,641]

Clearances are won by midfielders, not ruckmen.

The problem is that good midfielders simply read the taps of Gawn and Jamar when they dominate the ruck. And most of those good midfielders have not been wearing red and blue lately.

Gawn was tapping it down to no one pretty much after quarter time. It's also up to him to communicate where he's going to hit to. It's no coincidence Roos highlighted his game as needing some work.

[Adam The God 30,641]

Its unbelievable really.

Grimes will at least give us 20-25 possessions.

Howe will give us nothing.

Of which, most will be turn overs, in dangerous areas.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

Right. So let me see if ive got this straight. If an in needs to come out, then an out may come back in to replace the in that came out notwithstanding the ins that arent yet in because the outs arent for sure until we know whos in. Right? Ok got it.

Thanks for simplifying. It seems as though Roos & Co opted for the ins to stay out unless a late out causes us to require one of the out ins to come in.

[Akum 2,660]

Loving the belief that continuing to play Howe will fool every other club's recruiters into thinking that he's worth more than a fringe player.

'Cos they're all so easily fooled, so there's no way they'll figure it out.

[titan_uranus 25,209]

The only reason I dislike going in with no changes is that we're going to be rucking Dawes against either Martin or Leuenberger. Given that Dawes struggles in the ruck against nobodies, I'm worried about that.

I'd have thought Grimes would be an improvement over Harmes, ANB or Stretch (the latter two appearing tired to me), but changes in these sorts of players are not going to make us win or lose this game. The result will come down to our senior players, as it always does.

Loving the belief that continuing to play Howe will fool every other club's recruiters into thinking that he's worth more than a fringe player.

'Cos they're all so easily fooled, so there's no way they'll figure it out.

If we drop him, there's no chance his value stays high.

If we don't drop him, there's the chance he'll positively impact a game of football (I don't see it happening, but there's always a chance), and it will be noticed around the league.

In other words, one option gives us 0% chance, the other gives us >0%.

If he wasn't out of contract this year, I'm a lot more confident he'd be playing VFL right now.

[What 18,810]

Loving the belief that continuing to play Howe will fool every other club's recruiters into thinking that he's worth more than a fringe player.

'Cos they're all so easily fooled, so there's no way they'll figure it out.

One look at his stats and vision from a couple of games and they will be lucky to offer a 4th rounder for him

[dpositive 1,838]

How about the need for some consistency with the Casey team.

Dont bring too many up and weaken that team

Let them come up and learn the pace and what is needed at AFL seniors but dont let them become infected with the losing mentatlity.

Drop a few of the newies so they get the taste of winning.

JAmar played well last week and may provide relief for GAwn off the bench. Means a different style for Bears to adjust too as well.

Howe well I give up. Reckon hes gone unless he shows some significant change to his game impact.

[Nasher 33,617]

Do players "trade value" really fluctuate that much based on current form? Damaged good scenarios aside (ala Garlett) I think in general the price is dictated by the players ceiling - we didn't give up pick 2 because of Tyson's injury riddled, disjointed couple of seasons at GWS after all.

I really doubt other clubs will look at Howe's stat sheet for this season and go "nup, fourth round pick". Everyone knows Howe is a better player than what he's exhibited this year. If they want him, they can pay accordingly or sod off - he's not a FA after all.

The whole idea that selection policy is driven by trade value is just rubbish to me. Howe is getting selected now for the same reason Watts was earlier in the year and Dawes is now - because he's a good player in the eyes of those in charge and they want him to find form in the seniors.

I never understand why people find themselves drawn to hidden meanings behind things when the more obvious reason is the more likely one.

[Pates 9,686]

Team v Geelong

B: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Heritier Lumumba

C: Jimmy Toumpas, Dom Tyson, Jack Viney

HF: Jack Watts, Chris Dawes, Billy Stretch

F: Jeff Garlett, Jake Spencer, Angus Brayshaw

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince

I/C: Aidan Riley, Alex Neal-Bullen, Rohan Bail, Matt Jones

Team v Brisbane

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch

C: Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Aaron vandenBerg, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett

F: Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C Dom Tyson, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes

We have a better team out on the park than what we had vs Geelong, the boys have lost the confidence they gained during that match but if they get it back then we will win.

[Lucifers Hero 40,550]

Team v Geelong

B: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Heritier Lumumba

C: Jimmy Toumpas, Dom Tyson, Jack Viney

HF: Jack Watts, Chris Dawes, Billy Stretch

F: Jeff Garlett, Jake Spencer, Angus Brayshaw

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince

I/C: Aidan Riley, Alex Neal-Bullen, Rohan Bail, Matt Jones

Team v Brisbane

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch

C: Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Aaron vandenBerg, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett

F: Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C Dom Tyson, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes

We have a better team out on the park than what we had vs Geelong, the boys have lost the confidence they gained during that match but if they get it back then we will win.

A better team yes, but Geelong had no ruckman and the Lions have 2 that are in decent form.

Also the average age of our centre and wingmen is 30!

Even with rotations I think we will struggle to win clearances in the midfield and stoppages and then we will get limited inside 50's..

40/60 game Dees/Lions.

[rjay 25,345]

Never would have guessed...

Who would play his position? Or would you alter how the forward line functions (or doesn't function, if I can trample on a line there)?

Sorry 'rpfc', my internet connection has been down and I know the final selections have now come through.

On a horses for courses selection I would have gone in with another mid type player and played Tommy Mc forward to give us more run. I just don't think we are mobile enough or dangerous enough forward.

I know you are a forward and see Dawes as a role player but he's just not getting to contests and putting enough pressure on to be value in his role.

[KingDingAling 3,758]

TAB have us at $1.55. This is pretty short.

I thought Brisbane would start fav, they are at $2.45.