Brownlow Medal

[Arrow 1,257]

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

[olisik 4,060]

Cotchin by a mile imho

Carlton messed up and missed out on a potential dual brownlow medalist.

Edited September 14, 2012 by olisik

[DemonWA 3,940]

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

I generally hedge my bets on 3 favourites depending on the odds. Use the same philosophy in World cups and other round robin type comps.

Basically if you can narrow down the field to 3-4 contenders, and the odds are >$3 then you'll always come away with some sort of profit. you have to outlay a fair bit to make it worth while, and hope a rank outsider doesnt win though, so its a bit harder to pull off on the charlie. This year its not as clear cut as previosu years but might go for Cotchin, Watson, Thompson

[Demonator 93]

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

I think Dangerfield might take a few votes off him, but I can't see too many taking any off Cotchin.

[H_T 3,049]

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

Like Demonator, I think Dangerfield will poll just as well as Thompson. I think Swan again has been a standout this year and will poll well, I don't think Pendlebury has been as prolific as last year, although Sidebottom, Thomas and Beams will also attract votes. Other sides: Cotchin has been a standout at Richmond.Sydney and Hawthorn won a lot of games....is there a dark horse? Kennedy? Mitchell?

Ablett is the other who is the standout.

Polled 23 last year.

Had several 40 possession games this year.

[biggestred 5,242]

watson will have 25 votes at the half way point.

[Demonator 93]

Like Demonator, I think Dangerfield will poll just as well as Thompson. I think Swan again has been a standout this year and will poll well, I don't think Pendlebury has been as prolific as last year, although Sidebottom, Thomas and Beams will also attract votes. Other sides: Cotchin has been a standout at Richmond.Sydney and Hawthorn won a lot of games....is there a dark horse? Kennedy? Mitchell?

Ablett is the other who is the standout.

Polled 23 last year.

Had several 40 possession games this year.

So is there anyone you like over another? I agree with you though....Kennedy will poll well - especially early on.

Edited September 14, 2012 by Demonator

[H_T 3,049]

So is there anyone you like over another? I agree with you though....Kennedy will poll well - especially early on.

Not really tbh. I think Watson will lead first half of season and get overtaken. The likes of Ablett, Swan, Thompson, Cotchin should be near the finish. Mitchell consistent as ever close by.

I'll say Gazza Jnr by one vote.

[Dr. Mubutu 867]

Hoping for Beams. Whacked $5 on him after his first good game this year, stand to pocket $1000 if he gets it.

[Maldonboy38 6,406]

Watson will bolt ahead but will no be able to hold onto his lead.

Cotchin seems to be the crowd favourite, but I am unsure if the umpires see him the same way.

Dangerfield and Thompson might take votes from one another but we thought that about Swan and Pendelbury.

Sam Mitchell HAW

Gary Ablett GCS

Thompson ADEL

SMOKEY: Dane Beams COLL

[Jerry Lundergard 420]

I have money on Cotchin and K.Jack.

[Arrow 1,257]

Good response I'm glad so many people are on board.

I'm very much of the opinion that Cotchin will be this year's big flop of the brownlow. There's always one who gets revved up and doesn't compete all night and I feel that's his role this year.

I've got Watson and Kennedy both jumping out to lead's and than it becomes on for young and old to hunt them down.

J. Giles for most GWS votes at $4 may be value for anyone interested; he was best on ground in both of their wins.

[Dan Fantastik 50]

I have a mate who put $500 on Cotchin before the start of the season. Should pocket around $7500 if he wins.

I laughed at him at the time due to him being a diehard Richmond fan and quite bias. But it looks like he might have the last laugh after all.

[Dee_Flower 53]

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

Nah, Scully has no chance.

And no non-finals player has won since Paul Kelly in 1995, so Cotchin is unlikely too.

Edited September 14, 2012 by Dee_Flower

[H_T 3,049]

Nah, Scully has no chance.

And no non-finals player has won since Paul Kelly in 1995, so Cotchin is unlikely too.

To all the above mentioning Cotchin.......

The planets and moons will all align and Cotchin will likely finish 9th.

Just to pi55 off the Tigers supporters once more.

[pantaloons 2,019]

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

Yes. Apparently the Brownlow vote count is going to be scrapped, and Andrew Demetriou, Mike Sheahan, Kevin Bartlett, Greg Denham and Gerard Healy will be getting together and deciding on their top 10 players for 2012, eventually deciding upon Tom Scully as the Brownlow winner, narrowly edging out Naitanui.

[Striker475 696]

Watson and Ablett will storm ahead. Ablett may pick up 30-odd votes in the first 12 weeks.

I'd love Thompson to win it though.

[Guest KingDingAling]

I have it down as a two man race.

Watson will be leading at midway point - which is a good bet in itself,

he'll have a fairly substancial lead IMO.

I've lost over $20,000 backing Gary Ablett jr in brownlows since 2008

in which I backed him in 2008 and 2010, both $10,000 bets, I was stiff.

In 2009 I had a year off when he won.

Watson might have such a big lead that no-one runs him down - I'm leaning towards that assessment.

I know Jobe polls against us and Sydney late, which will keep the momemtum still going.

Because I am already into Watson early, ill probably climb into Ablett this week.

I don't think Cotchin will poll aswell as everyone thinks.

Watson and Ablett both have two things in their favour aswell - they are captains and captains definately poll better.

You only have to look as far as Judds polling history at Carlton as a pointer there.

[Toorak 108]

Does anyone think Pav is a chance?

[daisycutter 29,892]

Does anyone think Pav is a chance?

for a top 5 placing, yes

but not for the big enchilada

[greenmachine 21]

thinking mitchel from hawkes is a real good chance

[DemonWA 3,940]

I've lost over $20,000 backing Gary Ablett jr in brownlows since 2008

Ouch! / www.problemgambling.vic.gov.au/

[P-man 13,366]

Does anyone think Pav is a chance?

If the first half of his season was anything like the second half he would've been a shoe-in.

Watson is a strong chance but I would prefer to see Mitchell get it. He deserves the recognition.

Cotchin will one eventually.

[Guest KingDingAling]

Ouch! / www.problemgambling.vic.gov.au/

Sometimes you lose, its the nature of the beast.

I might only bet once or twice a year.

But, those losses hurt, because Cooney shouldn't of won in 2008 and Judd should've been rubbed out in 2010 for the Pavlich elbow.

This year Its a 2 man race, Watson Vs Ablett jr..

[H_T 3,049]

<p>

Anyone having a punt this year?

I did a spread-sheet last year and had Swan so it was fairly nice payout, the concept is huge on bigfooty but not sure if Demonlanders get on board the Chas, as we don't seem to poll well most years!

Have a small feeling an ex-Melbourne player may win it this year though, just to rub salt in the wounds.

Here is part of my spreadsheet (Top 14 from Brownlow) from last year's results on the Brownlow. I haven't done it this year, but I tried it as an exercise with a mate last year and we took it in turns for each round of votes: -

In brackets is our votes.

Clearly Dane Swan we underestimated in number of votes.

So too Dal Santo and Ablett.

I like Swan's value this year (currently $13), despite his two game club suspension.

D.Swan (Coll) 34(21)

S.Mitchell (Haw)* 30 (29)

N.Dal Santo (St.K) 28 (19)

M.Boyd (Dogs) 24 (25)

S.Pendlebury (Coll) 24 (26)

C.Judd (Carl) 23 (22)

G.Ablett (GCS) 23 (10)

L.Franklin (Haw)* 20 (15)

A.Goodes (Syd) 19 (15)

M.Priddis (WCE) 19 (15)

M.Murphy (Carl) 19 (22)

B.Moloney (Melb)* 19 (20)

D.Cox (WCE) 18 (17)

J.Selwood (Geel) 17 (18)

* = ineligible in 2011 count.