Jumping the Gun

[RalphiusMaximus 6,076]

This is entirely premature, but I can't help thinking about it.

We have on our rookie list at the moment two players who have shown themselves to be pretty handy at AFL level in Evans and Nicholson. There is also Kelvin Lawrence who has show glimpses at Casey and may well be given a chance this year. All three are in the second year of their rookie contracts, so if we want to keep them we'll need to upgrade in the 2012 draft.

We also find in the 2012 draft that we are picking up one of the best young mids in the land via the father-son rule in Jack Viney. Given the strength of the draft it seems probable that we'll also use one if not both of our compensation picks to cash in on first round talent.

All of this means that we will need to find room on the senior list for four to six more players.

On the understanding that a year in football is an eternity and things could easily change in the next twelve months, what are people's thoughts on who is most likely to be shown the door next year? Looking at the way we've been drafting I think the obvious one would be Dunn, but who else looks to be on the way out?

[DeeSpencer 25,723]

You've gone very early, but Spencer, Dunn, Bate, Batram, Jetta and Fitzpatrick all need to show considerable improvement.

[drdrake 3,178]

You might also find Davey and I think Jamar will qualify for Veterens List.

[Nasher 33,616]

I used to think it was silly to talk about delistings this soon, but in the last couple of years I've done a full 180 and decided it's actually very important, because it effects the list management decisions we make in the short term. Harrington and co would already have had a conversation like this one months ago. I wonder whether this impacted on the decision retain Joel Macdonald and to a lesser degree contracted players like Dunn and Bate; moving them on this year would've meant we had another kid from a very low draft pick on a two year contract next year when we need to clear spaces.

I'd be looking to set aside two spots for rookie promotion - in this early forecast Nicholson has got to be a certainty and it's not unreasonable to expect we might want to promote one of Evans or Lawrence depending on how the year pans out. As RL said we've got two compo picks plus Viney coming in, and no doubt we'll want to use our second round pick as well (assuming Viney consumes our first rounder) - that's a total of six players we need to clear out.

These are my six as of now:

Macdonald

Dunn

Bate

Jetta

Spencer

Strauss

Obviously this is the very early forecast and there's a whole season to play out, so there's a lot of scope for changing my mind, though I'm not expecting my mind to change on the first three. I struggled with number six - I chopped and changed with Strauss and Bartram in my mind in particular, but I think it's far enough out that it doesn't matter yet anyway. So long as we keep in mind that we need to clear six players out.

[rpfc 28,539]

Dunn, Bate, MacDonald, Batram, Bennell, Jetta, Spencer, and Strauss would be the most vulnerable and out of contract I believe.

Green may retire, Sellar might be on a one-year contract, and we may trade another...

Things change quickly, I can't say for sure.

Edited December 4, 2011 by rpfc

[Demon 16 213]

Currently in the mix would be;

Dunn

Fitzpatrick

Spencer

Players who would put themselves into the mix with a poor 2012;

Bate

Davey

Bartram

MacDonald

Bennell

Green

Jetta

Morton

[rpfc 28,539]

I used to think it was silly to talk about delistings this soon, but in the last couple of years I've done a full 180 and decided it's actually very important, because it effects the list management decisions we make in the short term. Harrington and co would already have had a conversation like this one months ago. I wonder whether this impacted on the decision retain Joel Macdonald and to a lesser degree contracted players like Dunn and Bate; moving them on this year would've meant we had another kid from a very low draft pick on a two year contract next year when we need to clear spaces.

I'd be looking to set aside two spots for rookie promotion - in this early forecast Nicholson has got to be a certainty and it's not unreasonable to expect we might want to promote one of Evans or Lawrence depending on how the year pans out. As RL said we've got two compo picks plus Viney coming in, and no doubt we'll want to use our second round pick as well (assuming Viney consumes our first rounder) - that's a total of six players we need to clear out.

These are my six as of now:

Macdonald

Dunn

Bate

Jetta

Spencer

Strauss

Obviously this is the very early forecast and there's a whole season to play out, so there's a lot of scope for changing my mind, though I'm not expecting my mind to change on the first three. I struggled with number six - I chopped and changed with Strauss and Bartram in my mind in particular, but I think it's far enough out that it doesn't matter yet anyway. So long as we keep in mind that we need to clear six players out.

One thing I overlooked that drdrake did not is that Jamar can be moved to the VL from 2012, Rivers will qualify in 2013. Davey and Sylvia in 2014.

I don't know when the decision has to be made but the only reason I can think of for not putting Jamar on the VL would be if we need his entire wage to pay into the cap. But that isn't a great reason.

If we are waiting to elevate him until next year to coincide with the Superdraft 2012 then why not just elevate Nicho now and put Jamar on the VL?

[rpfc 28,539]

If we are waiting to elevate him until next year to coincide with the Superdraft 2012 then why not just elevate Nicho now and put Jamar on the VL?

Maybe the club doesn't see Nicho as as sure a thing as we do...

[hardtack 10,555]

I doubt very much that Fitzpatrick is in the mix just yet and I get the feeling Neeld is expecting bigger and better things from Bate in 2012... however, if he (Bate) fails to repay Neeld's faith, then he may well get the full support of his club in finding another home for 2013. However, I would have to agree that Spencer, Dunn, MacDonald and Strauss are all on very thin ice... don't agree that Jetta is in trouble and I still believe that Bennell has too much potential to be shown the door just yet.

Edited December 4, 2011 by hardtack

[rolly 149]

jetta and morton will have to have their best year to stay on the list

i think dunn will be going at the end of the year

with the emergence of tom mcdonald/ stef martin and even sellars as defenders

could garland and rivers have there necks on the chopping block?

bartram reminds me alot of matty whelan with his attack on the ball and the man but

unfortunately he just doesn't have the execution to play the modern game

[RalphiusMaximus 6,076]

One thing I overlooked that drdrake did not is that Jamar can be moved to the VL from 2012, Rivers will qualify in 2013. Davey and Sylvia in 2014.

Davey is older than Jamar. By a whole 2 months. If one is eligible I think both will be. What I don't know is how old they need to be to go on the list. Is it 30 at the start of the season? They both turn 30 towards the end of the 2013 season, so it could be longer than we'd like. If it's 29 then we're set and they can both be veteran listed at the end of next season, taking a lot of the pressure off to cut players.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,076]

Here 'tis:

Veteran Players

Under AFL player rules, each club may nominate or list any number of what are called Veteran Player’s.

• In order to be eligible for classification as a Veteran a player must have been the age of 30 as at September 30 in the relevant AFL season and be on the primary list of the AFL club for at least 10 years or in the case of Port Adelaide since the inception of the club.
  
• From 2006 there is now no limit on the number of veteran players a club can list, as long as the player meets the required classification.
  

Now what do they mean by "the relevant AFL season?" Do they mean that we can list a 29 year old player who will turn 30 before that date in the upcoming season, or is it the previous season? Also, I see what RPFC was getting at with Davey not being eligible until 2014. So if we read this as the former interpretation then Jamar can be made a veteran at the end of 2012, freeing up one more spot on the main list. Otherwise it's the end of 2013.

[dee-luded 2,959]

You might also find Davey and I think Jamar will qualify for Veterens List.

This time next Year both will be only 29 + a couple of months. http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tp-melbourne-demons?year=2012&sby=15

I think veterans have to be 30?

[drdrake 3,178]

This time next Year both will be only 29 + a couple of months. http://www.footywire...ear=2012&sby=15

I think veterans have to be 30?

The way I thought the rule worked was if you turned 30 in the year off the next season, so if they turn 30 in 2013 before September they can go onto the VL.

[beelzebub 23,380]

My understanding ( as explained to me by someone with far too much time ) was you had to be 30 as of Spe 30 in the year of the Veteran listing.

So if you turn 30 by or at 30 sep 12 you can be on the VL for 2012.

[old55 23,624]

New Vet's rule for 2013 is 10 year's service, they got rid of the 30 years old. That means Jamar and Rivers qualify in 2013 (and for unrestricted FA). Davey and Sylvia debuted in 2004 so 2012 is their 9th year so they don't qualify until 2014. Wouldn't surprise me if 2012 was Brad Green's last year. The OP makes a very good point - I reckon we'll need minimum 5 vacancies. With the new coaching set-up everyone is starting from scratch and anything could happen - this time last year Martin and J.Macdonald were probably in the gun but both have been retained.

[mauriesy 7,302]

with the emergence of tom mcdonald/stef martin and even sellars as defenders

could garland and rivers have their necks on the chopping block?

Garland? You'd have to be joking.

[Roost It 1,434]

I used to think it was silly to talk about delistings this soon, but in the last couple of years I've done a full 180 and decided it's actually very important, because it effects the list management decisions we make in the short term. Harrington and co would already have had a conversation like this one months ago. I wonder whether this impacted on the decision retain Joel Macdonald and to a lesser degree contracted players like Dunn and Bate; moving them on this year would've meant we had another kid from a very low draft pick on a two year contract next year when we need to clear spaces.

I'd be looking to set aside two spots for rookie promotion - in this early forecast Nicholson has got to be a certainty and it's not unreasonable to expect we might want to promote one of Evans or Lawrence depending on how the year pans out. As RL said we've got two compo picks plus Viney coming in, and no doubt we'll want to use our second round pick as well (assuming Viney consumes our first rounder) - that's a total of six players we need to clear out.

These are my six as of now:

Macdonald

Dunn

Bate

Jetta

Spencer

Strauss

Obviously this is the very early forecast and there's a whole season to play out, so there's a lot of scope for changing my mind, though I'm not expecting my mind to change on the first three. I struggled with number six - I chopped and changed with Strauss and Bartram in my mind in particular, but I think it's far enough out that it doesn't matter yet anyway. So long as we keep in mind that we need to clear six players out.

Strauss?

Very harsh

[BAMF 4,357]

Strauss?

Very harsh

Harsh? Maybe. But if we are looking to clear 6 spots then he would certainly be penciled in at the moment.

This time last year Martin was a certainty to be delisted. Everyone knows things could change quickly.

Personally I don't know if we will need to clear out 6 spots.

• Evans has a lot more to prove in my eyes
  
• Lawrence hasn't even played a senior game
  
• Jamar or Davey can go on the VET's list
  
• We have no idea what the club has planned for the compensation picks, I think we will trade at least one.
  

Brad Green will also need a decent year. We have a fair few medium forwards who will compete for his spot.

[Nasher 33,616]

Strauss?

Very harsh

No it isn't. It's 11 months out and the list is rubbery, my mind will change 100 times between now and then. As UTAH has clearly pointed out, the six have got to come from somewhere.

[Lutz 76]

Strauss no chance to be delisted. Seriously underrated.

Bennell too.

Just like Joel MacDonald is no chance to be on the list after 2012.

Seriously overrated.

Dunn gone too, and Spencer traded.

Began thinking about this very topic a week ago, and came to the conclusion we are very likely to only use 1 compo pick next year.

And Bartram quite likely to go, because ultimately, he is far too poor with the ball in hand.

[Lutz 76]

Oh, and I think Green will retire or be retired after 2012.

[Demon 16 213]

No way Strauss is up - we don't even know him yet.

[Nasher 33,616]

Really pleased to see everyone is labouring on the Strauss point and paying no attention whatsoever to the real meat of this topic.

[Arrow 1,257]

J

Really pleased to see everyone is labouring on the Strauss point and paying no attention whatsoever to the real meat of

this topic.

Not sure if serious. Every topic on this board ends up talking about Tom Scully and it's the one where we are talking about someone in the firing line where you complain?

Fwiw,

Bennell

Bartram

Dunn

Spencer (could be in trade)

MacDonald

Green- retirement.

edit- Lawrence will be gone off rookie list also.

Edited December 5, 2011 by Demon Land 7