One Big Scalp

[Range Rover 1,935]

We are five wins from a finals berth.

From round 18 - 21 we play four of this season's heavyweight sides - Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and the Eagles.

Realistically, we are going to have to knock off one of these teams if we're to have any chance of making the top eight. Bailey would also know that a victory over one of them would underline his case for a contract extension moving forward.

Can we do it and if so, which team do you think is the most vulnerable? An undermanned Hawthorn perhaps in round 18? I'm thinking if we can get our best side up and running we could give the Blues a real run for their money at the G in round 20.

We owe them for those "bruise free footy" comments.

What do others think? Can we "put it together", knock off a top side and really make a statement about where the Dees are headed?

[Bang Bang Bang 5,839]

You can put a line through Geelong at Skilled now. They haven't lost there since the Jurassic period.

I'm sure Bailey had the Eagles at Etihad pencilled in as a win originally, but they would be heavy favourites now, especially at Etihad where their forward press can strangle teams.

That leaves Hawks and Blues. I agree, reckon the Blues at the G with a much stronger side on the park could test them. As for Hawthorn, we owe them for the embarrassment they caused us in Rd 2. Doubt we can escape with the 4 points though.

FWIW we can still make the 8 with wins over Bulldogs, Port x 2, Gold Coast and Richmond. The final game against Port might be at the Adelaide Oval.

[Jaded No More 68,975]

Please please please for the love of god let us beat those absolute Carlton scumbags who called us soft. If losing to us also happens to knock them out of top 4 contention, all the better.

That sort of win would absolutely be the highlight of the past 4 years!

Geelong will beat us by 12+ goals, Hawthorn will beat us by 6+ goals and WC are in spectacular form, so unless they suffer injuries to some key players, I doubt we'll get close to them. Carlton lost to them, and they play very well at Etihad, whereas we don't.

The other key win this year is Round 24 versus Port. They are shite, but it's at AAMI Stadium. If we don't beat them, we don't deserve to make finals and we probably won't.

[Guest milpod]

To play finals would be nice, but to tear "that blue scum" a new one sublime.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

I think we can get to 10 wins without beating any of these teams, to do so would be a bonus, do a ladder predictor the general consensus is us 7th Saints 8th and the bulldogs missing out by 2 points...alot can change

10.5 might do it this year

anyone else do the predictor? also 6th basically 20 points ahead of 7th

[Eth 4]

I reckon we might be a chance down at Kardinia. IIRC we play well down there.

[jumbo returns 6,741]

The upset of the year - a win at the Cattery, we kick 15 odd goals, with Watts kicking 3.

The Cats surge, but the boys get up by 9 points, Scully BOG.

[Kento80 83]

Can I have some of what's going around in this room, it sounds great :lol:

Blues are the one for me too. I reckon it is the most likely, and given that our boys will be out to show them what bruise footy really is, I rate us a chance. That is assuming the rollercoaster has stopped completely, which I think and hope that it has.

[Fork 'em 7,043]

You can put a line through Geelong at Skilled now. They haven't lost there since the Jurassic period.

Since we beat them I believe .

Don't think we'll get this time tho' .

Would love a scalp tho' , was hoping we'd take 1 last year but haven't looked like it this year.

ATM , I'd prefer we just play every game on it's merits as I still believe the roller coaster might have a dip or 2 in it yet .

Let's get over the dogs 1st.

Having said that , we seem to be gaining confidence and providing we get a good injury run anything might happen .

I feel if the mids can feed the forwards regular ball we'll do well .

IMO our forward line is starting to look deadly on paper .

If they can all can "click" together we'll score heavily .

Backline is getting better by the week and still have Tapscott and Davey to inject .

Jamar and Martin are a strong ruck combo .

I'm looking forward to seeing what develops , It's not like we haven't gone on a rampage and strung multiple wins together before .

[Jaded No More 68,975]

The upset of the year - a win at the Cattery, we kick 15 odd goals, with Watts kicking 3.

The Cats surge, but the boys get up by 9 points, Scully BOG.

If we beat Geelong in Geelong this year I'll buy 10 memberships next year and donate them.

No chance in hell!

Geelong would have to lose 4-5 players during the game to injuries, and we probably still won't match them. Geelong at Skilled Stadium are the best, most unbeatable team in the competition. 28 wins in a row down there. You'd find it easier infiltrating the White House!

[titan_uranus 25,174]

Rule out Geelong. By Round 19 they're going to be beginning to start their climb towards peaking in the finals. They'll have Selwood, Bartel, Ottens, Kelly and most of the rest of their stars out there. We'll be cannon fodder as they strive to maintain top 2.

You can also probably rule out Hawthorn. We don't play well against them (not for four quarters anyway), and I don't se us being much of a chance.

As for Carlton and West Coast, at our best I can see us winning against either side (though I'd be a hell of a lot more confident if the Eagles game was at the G). I can also see us getting tonked by both (it's already happened this year against both sides).

At our best, we can pick up a win. At our worst, we could be embarrassed for four straight weeks.

Nonetheless, I don't think we need to win any of them to make finals. If we do the job against Port twice, the Dogs, Gold Coast and Richmond, we'll make it I reckon. And a team in our position should be good enough to beat all those sides, at Etihad, Darwin, or AAMI.

[Striker475 696]

I reckon the Hawks are sneaking up as a possible. 4 weeks time? Cyril (who always ruins us) may not be back, no Roughie so we can rotate Chip and Garland on Buddy, and our ruck stocks are still sublime against theirs. Their new arc strategy is something to behold against a press, but against Melbourne's gut-running, pack plays it's useless.

That said, getting up over Carlscum would be particularly sweet.

[Pates 9,672]

Beating Carlton would just about make the year, regardless of whether or not we made finals. Top 8 this year would be the cherry on top for me, as long as we finish thereabouts and continue our improvement.

[drdrake 3,203]

Would love to smash Hawthorn, I still have memories from Dean Bailey's first game as coach. It was as real as it gets, I think after this game we all knew that we needed to completely rebuild our list. Then the next week against the Bulldogs, would love to return the favour to them on Friday night.

[Robbie57 2,026]

You can put a line through Geelong at Skilled now. They haven't lost there since the Jurassic period.

I remember being invited by a mate to the Cattery, sat in the middle of a group of memebers and we won with a kick after the siren.

Cant recall the year, 2000 perhaps. I will never forget the slience apart from me. Pure magic.

[DemonDing 56]

If we beat Geelong in Geelong this year I'll buy 10 memberships next year and donate them.

No chance in hell!

Geelong would have to lose 4-5 players during the game to injuries, and we probably still won't match them. Geelong at Skilled Stadium are the best, most unbeatable team in the competition. 28 wins in a row down there. You'd find it easier infiltrating the White House!

i reckon this geelong record down at skilled is the most overrated stat getting around, they only play interstate teams there and the poorer victorian clubs, they have the most advantage to make the finals out of any victorian club, if they play 6 0r 7 games down there a year thats pretty half the work done to make the finals!!!!

[jumbo returns 6,741]

If we beat Geelong in Geelong this year I'll buy 10 memberships next year and donate them.

No chance in hell!

Geelong would have to lose 4-5 players during the game to injuries, and we probably still won't match them. Geelong at Skilled Stadium are the best, most unbeatable team in the competition. 28 wins in a row down there. You'd find it easier infiltrating the White House!

Our team is known for its upsets. Huge win against the Weagles with a depleted side, (Robbo starred) massive win against the Lions when Neita kicked a few.....

Don't write them off - there's been some real resilience shown in the last couple of weeks and the ball movement has been as good as any team going around. Also, Geelong will drop a game soon.

[titan_uranus 25,174]

I reckon the Hawks are sneaking up as a possible. 4 weeks time? Cyril (who always ruins us) may not be back, no Roughie so we can rotate Chip and Garland on Buddy, and our ruck stocks are still sublime against theirs. Their new arc strategy is something to behold against a press, but against Melbourne's gut-running, pack plays it's useless.

I don't think I would go so far to say it's 'useless'. It's quite decent actually, and when they have the ball, our 'gut-running, pack plays', as you call them, don't really change anything. It's how we apply pressure to the ball carrier that will determine how we go against Hawthorn (and every other team, for that matter).

[Guest DeesPower]

Our best chance for a top 4 upset is the Hawks as we catch them coming off a bye, and by the time they will have secured a top 4 finish. I think given our improved forward set up (especially JW's form), what is now proving to be a very powerful onball group, plus James Fawley's vastly improved form, we are a real chance against the Hawks. I also think our different gameplan will break through their chipping short game, especially as we now have tall marking forward options.

The other one is the Blues. We now have "the cattle" to do a West Coast on them too. I still believe the Blues are flakey.

[DeeSpencer 26,273]

If we don't win the next 2 then it will all be for nothing. And I'm seriously worried about us beating the Dogs and Port.

[Kento80 83]

Our team is known for its upsets. Huge win against the Weagles with a depleted side, (Robbo starred) massive win against the Lions when Neita kicked a few.....Don't write them off - there's been some real resilience shown in the last couple of weeks and the ball movement has been as good as any team going around. Also, Geelong will drop a game soon.

How is "our team" known for its upsets. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure Robbo and Neita are no longer playing. And virtually no-one on our team were playing at the time. That means it is no longer the same team that caused those upsets, therefore it has no relevance. Last year, all my mates were saying the filth couldn't win the flag because of the colliwobbles. It's such BS. Same club does not mean same attributes. Different players, different opponents, different coaching staff, differenct game plans..... need I go on.

Our best chance for a top 4 upset is the Hawks as we catch them coming off a bye, and by the time they will have secured a top 4 finish. I think given our improved forward set up (especially JW's form), what is now proving to be a very powerful onball group, plus James Fawley's vastly improved form, we are a real chance against the Hawks. I also think our different gameplan will break through their chipping short game, especially as we now have tall marking forward options. The other one is the Blues. We now have "the cattle" to do a West Coast on them too. I still believe the Blues are flakey.

The trouble here is that our forwards have performed well against some of the worst defence I can remember over the last 2 weeks. I'm not saying they will fail against better defence, but thinking back to the filth, it doesn't bode well. The question is whether their gained confidence will help. And I do think that the Hawks defence is going to be a much larger handful than Richmond or Freo were. We still need to make some serious gains to challenge the Hawks. And boy I hope we do.

[P-man 13,366]

Carlton

[jumbo returns 6,741]

How is "our team" known for its upsets. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure Robbo and Neita are no longer playing. And virtually no-one on our team were playing at the time. That means it is no longer the same team that caused those upsets, therefore it has no relevance. Last year, all my mates were saying the filth couldn't win the flag because of the colliwobbles. It's such BS. Same club does not mean same attributes. Different players, different opponents, different coaching staff, differenct game plans..... need I go on.

I won't reply with your overt sarcastic style, but we'll try and have a footy discussion anyway. At times, historically, teams have been known to cause upsets. All I'm saying is that the team's ball movement at the moment is as good as anybody's, the FD need to do their h/w on the Cattery and Geelong is due for a loss. These are my points.

[Kento80 83]

For what it's worth I don't think we have a chance in hell of beating the Cats, let alone at the Cattery. The only way it would happen is if we play our best game of the year and they play well below their capabilities. My issue though is things like "our team is known for its upsets". It is like the use of "elite". Just a ridiculous statement. Just because teams have been known to cause upsets historically has no relevance as to "our team" being known to do it. Looking back over previous years, the team that we have has not caused any upsets. We have come close, but not been able to do it. Maybe Sydney last year, but that was nothing on the scale of what would be required to beat the Cats at home.

[The Reds 0]

It has to be Carlton and the Dees must set themselves for it. Plenty of ammo and lets remember the Dees were only down by a couple of kicks at half time without even trying.

Carlton were described as soft on the weekend for failing to put their head over the ball.

While they are a quality side, they are down-hill skiers, and have a fairly soft and short defence. Jamar and Martin could cause headaches with jurrah and watts, syliva and green.

Mind you this game is more than a month away so I better just calm down a little.