Stakka from Demonology talks sense

[Roost It 1,434]

If it isn't ok to copy posts then mods please delete this topic

from: http://demonology.midnight.net.au/Index.PHP?Mode=Forum&SubMode=DisplayPosts&MessageThreadID=31437&BoardType=0

This attitude 'No more excuses, Demons/Bailey' is rubbish. Here's why:

"No more excuses" everyone is saying, well it's rubbish

OK, we all know we have a comparitively young side, but I wanted to actually work out precisely what we're dealing with. It is one thing to talk about the age of side's LISTS, but since half your list in the reserves, and for good sides it is NOT these young players actually taking the AFL field, it is far more relevant to talk about the age of the actual side that is taking the field, week in, week out.

cats and saints on GF day 09 (i've simply averaged them together)

ave. age: 26yr 6mth

ave. games: 116.6

Less than 50 2

50 to 99 4.5

100 to 149 5.5

150 or more 10

That's type of numbers you see in sides that are experienced, at the ceiling of their physical development, and have spent years together consistently learning under their coach how to work together. That's a premiership side.

Now, This would be my best MFC 22 players, likely to take the field on any given day in this upcoming season assuming everyone is fit (which never happens, senior blokes are injured more and replaced with younger blokes so these numbers flatter our experience - for example last week our oldest 4 did not even play). It is obviously contentious, Ive left out Dunn, Bartram, Bell, Martin, Meesen, PJ, Cheney, Miller, Watts, Blease, Strauss, Maric new draftess, rookies etc but note this list of emergencies is a young group in itself so that only strengthens what I'm saying in that their hypothetical inclusion would drop our numbers even further than what is illustrated..

23 McDonald, James 235 33yr 4mth 5 Oct 1976

32 Bruce, Cameron 203 30yr 4mth 30 Sep 1979

18 Green, Brad 198 28yr 11mth 13 Mar 1981

36 Davey, Aaron 119 26yr 8mth 10 Jun 1983

40 Jamar, Mark 73 26yr 6mth 9 Aug 1983

22 Moloney, Brent 90 26yr 28 Jan 1984

1 Warnock, Matthew38 25yr 10mth 3 Apr 1984

28 Macdonald, Joel 80 25yr 4mth 10 Oct 1984

27 Rivers, Jared 90 25yr 4mth 18 Oct 1984

12 Sylvia, Colin 87 24yr 3mth 8 Nov 1985

6 Bate, Matthew 68 22yr 9mth 24 May 1987

2 Jones, Nathan 70 22yr 1mth 20 Jan 1988

20 Garland, Colin 20 21yr 9mth 28 Apr 1988

15 Petterd, Ricky 29 21yr 7mth 24 Jul 1988

8 Frawley, James 40 21yr 5mth 20 Sep 1988

24 Jurrah, Liam 9 21yr 5mth 22 Sep 1988

33 Wonaeamirri, Aus18 21yr 4mth 2 Oct 1988

16 Grimes, Jack 12 20yr 9mth 11 May 1989

42 Spencer, Jake ®6 20yr 4mth 9 Oct 1989

10 Morton, Cale 40 20yr 1mth 18 Jan 1990

39 Jetta, Neville 15 20yr 12 Feb 1990

43 Bennell, Jamie 16 19yr 8mth 7 Jun 1990

What has a big effect on this is the fact that Junior is in the equation. Given it is his last year, and the contribution he is likely to make, I think it is fair to consider him out of these numbers

ave age

495 years 116 months = 504.7 years/22 = 22.9 years with Junior

462 years 112 months = 471.3 years/21 = 22.4 years w/o Junior

ave games

1556/22 = 70.7 with Junior

1321/21 = 62.9 w/o Junior

Less than 50 11

50 to 99 7

100 to 149 1

150 or more 3 (inc.Junior)

So, you're talking about a side who (leaving Junior out) is behind the league leaders by

22.4 v 26.6 = 4 years 2 months

53.7 v 116.6 = 62.9 games

<50 2 v 11

50 to 99 4.5 v 7

100 to 149 5.5 v 1

150 or more 10 v 3 (inc.Junior)

I was actually surprised to find how big this gulf is, and how it correlates with Bailey's statements regarding when we can expect to be at our best. Over four years behind, like it or not, and that to a big extent excuses the odd shizen performance like last week. Our group will be in that 26 and a half window on grand final day 2014, and we will have 10-ish players in that 150 games+ zone, not 11 under-50 gamers while the good sides are only playing 2. I am going to bear this in mind whenever I watch them from now on.

NOTE: The 08 Hawks were a bit of an exception:

Age 24yr 7mth

Games 87.0

Less than 50 4

50 to 99 3

100 to 149 9

150 or more 6

So they were basically 2 years younger than the 09 sides, they peaked earlier. Perhaps the same is possible for us, but we are still 2years 3months and 24.1 games behind even them. In reality, most years the top side is going to have figures more like Saints/Cats in '09, and even in that year it should have been the Cats flag

Conclusion: we are a 22.4 year old side, the best sides are at 26.6 years with 63 extra games each under their belts. You can compare apples with apples on Grand Final day 2014 - until then we are building, nothing more than that

Edited March 3, 2010 by Demonland
Linking to Demonology

[Roost It 1,434]

I thought this well researched post should be read by the doubters on this site

[Johnny Karate 559]

I thought this well researched post should be read by the doubters on this site

It is a good post and I do disagree with the assertion that Bailey is rubbish. However it is worrying when we are getting smacked by Essendon and Freo who are both mediocre sides. Time will tell.

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

The Above Post is all very well & Good and i do not question the Figures, but for this club to be "Building" for the next 5 seasons meanwhile 2 new clubs are introduced & Free Agency takes hold-It is a fairytale. Wake up People.

We have got to play above ourselves in order to survive, otherwise just like fitzroy all our good players will be bought out.

Do not think it won't happen...it will. The Free Agency decision has changed the Rules.

Whoever decided that we did not need to start the"Big Rebuild" after the 2006 season can maybe take a piece of blame for what it is worth, that's a major reason for the average age and game time of our current list.

But if this club is to survive because of what is now ocuring, The list has to play above itself & the Football Department has to coach better than it has ever done before- who cared how old the Fitzroy list was at the end of 1996? Nobody.

Excuses will not cut it-we must get used to that.

[Roost It 1,434]

The Above Post is all very well & Good and i do not question the Figures, but for this club to be "Building" for the next 5 seasons meanwhile 2 new clubs are introduced & Free Agency takes hold-It is a fairytale. Wake up People.

We have got to play above ourselves in order to survive, otherwise just like fitzroy all our good players will be bought out.

Do not think it won't happen...it will. The Free Agency decision has changed the Rules.

Whoever decided that we did not need to start the"Big Rebuild" after the 2006 season can maybe take a piece of blame for what it is worth, that's a major reason for the average age and game time of our current list.

But if this club is to survive because of what is now ocuring, The list has to play above itself & the Football Department has to coach better than it has ever done before- who cared how old the Fitzroy list was at the end of 1996? Nobody.

Excuses will not cut it-we must get used to that.

That's the whole point of the thread. It's not an excuse it's fact. Also because our young players are already playing together we'd expect our window to open earlier. Bailey has consistently said that it's games played. As long as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining bright at the end of 2012 we should be alright - this time. The future however is looking cloudy not only for several clubs but the competition as a whole.

[e25 5]

It is a good post and I do disagree with the assertion that Bailey is rubbish. However it is worrying when we are getting smacked by Essendon and Freo who are both mediocre sides. Time will tell.

That depends on the KPIs you are looking at from those matches.

I don't think a win or a loss was necessarily the priority; moreso it was to give the young players some decent time on the ground and to test their resolve.

It was a chance to test which players will stick to the gameplan under intense pressure.

Experimentation with strategies, setups and players in foreign positions/roles may not have been obvious to us supporters, but it doesn't mean they didn't happen.

This is all speculation, but it is well documented that not all teams do their utmost to win in the NAB Cup.

I'll only be worried if we carry this form into Round 1.

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

That's the whole point of the thread. It's not an excuse it's fact. Also because our young players are already playing together we'd expect our window to open earlier. Bailey has consistently said that it's games played. As long as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining bright at the end of 2012 we should be alright - this time. The future however is looking cloudy not only for several clubs but the competition as a whole.

You think we have till the end of 2012?? That's just it. I don't think we have that amount of time.

This Free Agency crap is going to put the Rocket right up all the clubs and we are the most vulnerable as of today. We need wins this year not promises.

[Roost It 1,434]

You think we have till the end of 2012?? That's just it. I don't think we have that amount of time.

This Free Agency crap is going to put the Rocket right up all the clubs and we are the most vulnerable as of today. We need wins this year not promises.

But free agency doesn't start until 2012 so why the panic?

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

But free agency doesn't start until 2012 so why the panic?

The whole process has already started, no point waiting till 2012-This club has been reactive for to long.

Free Agency is only part of it, it's the 3rd tier payments i think we need to be more worried about-those figures can be anything.

[praha 11,218]

The whole "no more excuses" is just good PR. How exactly would you expect the sponsors and investors to respond if he said, "we won't be a good team for another three years."?

I wouldn't respond well. Whether we like to admit it or not doesn't matter: 2010 will be mostly another year of pain. We will see more wins that previous years, and more good signs of things to come, but we again will be the team everyone can't wait to play.

2011 will be the rise.

[BAMF 4,172]

I don't understand why McDonald would be taken out of the equation. He is best 22 this year and will make a contribution to the team. So why take him out of the statistics?

A fair summary apart from this.

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

I don't understand why McDonald would be taken out of the equation. He is best 22 this year and will make a contribution to the team. So why take him out of the statistics?

A fair summary apart from this.

Yes i wondered that, When has ever the Captain been removed from a stats run down to give it more cred?

[Mydee 288]

The Above Post is all very well & Good and i do not question the Figures, but for this club to be "Building" for the next 5 seasons meanwhile 2 new clubs are introduced & Free Agency takes hold-It is a fairytale. Wake up People.

We have got to play above ourselves in order to survive, otherwise just like fitzroy all our good players will be bought out.

Do not think it won't happen...it will. The Free Agency decision has changed the Rules.

Whoever decided that we did not need to start the"Big Rebuild" after the 2006 season can maybe take a piece of blame for what it is worth, that's a major reason for the average age and game time of our current list.

But if this club is to survive because of what is now ocuring, The list has to play above itself & the Football Department has to coach better than it has ever done before- who cared how old the Fitzroy list was at the end of 1996? Nobody.

Excuses will not cut it-we must get used to that.

Fair enough, don't question the figures- Question the interpretation. Without doing a full statistical analysis the median age(mid point) of our players is a lot less than the mean (referred to as the average), which is dragged up by McDoanald, Bruce and Green. So 3 players will make our side look a lot more experienced than it is. A better measure of our position is to ,look at how many games players who will be playing the game this year have played compared with the competition. It is all about AFL experience not the average age of the players.

Having said this the jury should be out on Bailey I still don't know if he can coach

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

Fair enough, don't question the figures- Question the interpretation. Without doing a full statistical analysis the median age(mid point) of our players is a lot less than the mean (referred to as the average), which is dragged up by McDoanald, Bruce and Green. So 3 players will make our side look a lot more experienced than it is. A better measure of our position is to ,look at how many games players who will be playing the game this year have played compared with the competition. It is all about AFL experience not the average age of the players.

Having said this the jury should be out on Bailey I still don't know if he can coach

sure but you take out those 3 experienced players right now & we would be fresh meat for every club in the AFL. My major worry is that we are 12-18 months behind where we could be.

After the 2006 Fremantle Finals Game the cleaners should have gone right through the club. The only thing that happened was more Band Aids were applied.

Thank God Jimmy & co arrived when they did.

My major worry is that we do not have years up our sleeves before the Cash starts pumping again.

The Socialist days of the AFL Competition are over, as of about 10 days ago when all this 3rd tier payments became public..Even Eddiewood is scared of this one.

Can the MFC afford another year near the bottom with all that is going on? It is a big ask of all the supporters. I do not know the answer but i am worried.

Edited March 3, 2010 by why you little

[BAMF 4,172]

My major worry is that we are 12-18 months behind where we could be.

After the 2006 Fremantle Finals Game the cleaners should have gone right through the club. The only thing that happened was more Band Aids were applied.

After a successful 2006 I doubt anyone would have started a rebuild at this point in time. Members would have gone nuts. 2006 was a good year.

What band aids are you talking about?

[Chook 15,001]

sure but you take out those 3 experienced players right now & we would be fresh meat for every club in the AFL. My major worry is that we are 12-18 months behind where we could be.

After the 2006 Fremantle Finals Game the cleaners should have gone right through the club. The only thing that happened was more Band Aids were applied.

Thank God Jimmy & co arrived when they did.

My major worry is that we do not have years up our sleeves before the Cash starts pumping again.

The Socialist days of the AFL Competition are over, as of about 10 days ago when all this 3rd tier payments became public..Even Eddiewood is scared of this one.

Can the MFC afford another year near the bottom with all that is going on? It is a big ask of all the supporters. I do not know the answer but i am worried.

Stop fear-mongering, man. We're already "fresh meat" with these players in, so I don't think it's statistically unfair to take the oldest one out of the equation, particularly considering he's going to be retired soon.

If you can point me to a post in 2006 that said "we should clean out our club, or else we'll be crap in no time at all," then your second point has some merit.

What does it matter if Jimmy and Co have arrived? According to you, we're pretty much screwed anyway.

I'm not a fan of free agency either, but considering it's not even going to be in effect for two more years, it's incredibly difficult to say how it'll affect us.

It's not a matter of what we can afford, but what we can realistically accomplish.

PS, please stop Putting Capitals on Words That Don't Need Them. It Doesn't Make You Seem Any More Emphatic or Intelligent.

PPS I like most of you're posts. Just not that one.

[45HG 1,539]

Hindsight is 20-20

[jayceebee31 759]

I thought this well researched post should be read by the doubters on this site

I read this thread on Demonland and thought-- what a well written thought provoking argument for negative persons. I for one am not negative, I am realistic. Read my threads since joining in September 2009.I originally posted saying we needed another tall forward. Temel or someone like him made for football now -I thought it would help.Actually I agree with Stakka with the majority of what he says. I have been questioning in my posts other factors.I also placed a post saying I thought Bails would get another year. I still think even with this very young inexperienced out fit that we can win 7 games.This is what I stated many months ago. However it is the ending of the preseason that is definately worrying me. The young ones- in particular Scully will have to be nursed very carefully. Even more so with regards to Watts last year- do not forget he only started training early this year.Even last years , the year before recruits will basically take another couple of years. However, I would have thought,even with our current injuries we would have shown something more than the lack lustre and unskillful first quarter of our match against Freo.Anyhow, back to Stakka- well presented, well adapted which may also make some dreamers realise we are not just going to turn up and win a premiership in a year or two.Playing Fitzpatrick first up shows that we are not ready yet.Also when we get our full list available we will improve well-I think we will play well mid season to late in the season.And maybe a win in October in China.That's positive isn't it ROOST IT.And whilst you think I am a doubter Roost it- have a look at another Demonolgy site to look at how our memberships have decreased against other clubs over the last few weeks

nick48 Posted on Tue 02/03/10 23:18:28

Member #

Date joined

Posts

2131

08/12/2006

3427

just to start the month off.

L/Y

WESTCOAST 54,074 50,000

Collingw&%$ 45,954 46,126

HAWTHORN 52,496 44,874

ESSENDON 40,634 33,576

stKILDA 33,522 31,414

CARLTON 43,294 30,563

RICHMOND 29,379

GEELONG 28,773

FOOTSCRAY 23,693

portADELAIDE 23,428

MELBOURNE 22,844

BRISBANE 26,324 22,388

nthMELBOURNE 26,121 18,806

SYDNEY 26,269

Edited March 3, 2010 by jayceebee31

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

Stop fear-mongering, man. We're already "fresh meat" with these players in, so I don't think it's statistically unfair to take the oldest one out of the equation, particularly considering he's going to be retired soon.

If you can point me to a post in 2006 that said "we should clean out our club, or else we'll be crap in no time at all," then your second point has some merit.

What does it matter if Jimmy and Co have arrived? According to you, we're pretty much screwed anyway.

I'm not a fan of free agency either, but considering it's not even going to be in effect for two more years, it's incredibly difficult to say how it'll affect us.

It's not a matter of what we can afford, but what we can realistically accomplish.

PS, please stop Putting Capitals on Words That Don't Need Them. It Doesn't Make You Seem Any More Emphatic or Intelligent.

PPS I like most of you're posts. Just not that one.

It's not fear mongering when the Geelong Football Club & the Collingwood Football Club are screaming!! Sorry to ruin your day, it is actually a reality check.

You say it is incredibly difficult to see how it will effect us, so in your eyes let's just sweep it under the carpet and have a cup of tea!!! Sorry, i want to see the MFC Prosper

& the rules have just changed over the last 2 weeks.

The club & supporters are going to have to fight bloody Hard to win this one. It Can be done, But the odds have just got tougher.

[Roost It 1,434]

Basically your fear appears to stems from a NAB cup game. As Stakka kindly points out we're young and very inexperienced. We're going to have bad days and more of them before we really improve. My point to you is It's going to take time and recruiting flawed footballers like Temel isn't going to fix the problem. In a couple of years time our forward line will include a selection of Watts, Bate, Jurrah, Petterd, Wonamaeamirri, Maric, Tapscott, Sylvia, Morton, Davey, Green with a fairly star studded midfield and a great defence. Take a look at Geelong's side. Great defence, awesome midfield, middle of the road forward line.

All I'm asking is that you grow some ticker, ride out the rough times because a good side is being put together. If Bailey can't get something out of them over the next 2 years we'll have a queue of coaches wanting to be involved.

Our problems aren't with our side and they are certainly not with an NAB cup loss. Our problems lie with the AFL legalising cheating and allowing free trade. This is what you need to worry about.

If you atre so worried about the membership table buy another one, that's what most of us do.

Edited March 3, 2010 by Roost It

[jnrmac 19,931]

Here's an exercise in damned lies and statistics for you. I have a different opinion about the results.

Comparing our side with the Grand Finalists is always going to accentuate a point. We are nowhere near there (and of course no-one is saying that we are). So for us to win a GF we will need to have a list that is around where Stakka highlighted we should be. That theory has been around largely since Mick Malthouse's 'Premiership Clock' which Daniher also tried to model our side around. It doesn't give a true picture of what we should be achieving now with our list where it is at. North and Ess appear to have exciting game plans with young players. They are going to get flogged every now and then. One would expect inconsistency.

But one also would expect that every now and them we play a recognisable game plan that produces more than 12 wins in 3 years.

But I digress. Since Stakka noted that the 08 Hawks were a bit of an exception I took the trouble to download the official AFL team lists for the START of 08 (which would make a fair comparison to the Dees at the start of 2010). I think Stakka may have used the stats from the end of 08 and it makes a whole lot of difference:

His stats for the Hawks were:

Age 24yr 7mth

Games 87.0

Less than 50 4

50 to 99 3

100 to 149 9

150 or more 6

Their Grand Final team at the START of 08 shows:

Age 24yrs 1 mth

Games 76.3 (without Crawf as Stakka omitted Junior)

Less than 50 6

50 to 99 10

100 to 150 3

150 or more 3

There is now only a minor difference in the Dees of 2010 and the hawks at the start of 2008. In particular 16 players less than 100 games compares to our 18. And they won a flag with that team!

I hold the opinion that our players are hearing the company line " we are a young team that's building" AND consequently not performing up to their capability as a team instead of the Voss or Scott line "we may have a young side but we expect to be competitive".

People we have won 7 games in 2 years. IF we were competing well then the actual win/loss ratio would not be so important. It's how we are losing that is frightening.

And I make the point about tackling, chasing, running, hitting targets from 20m, defending kick-ins, centre square set-ups etc - these things don't necessarily depend on number of games played, experience etc. It's about attitude, basic skills and accountability. You don't need to be elite to do most of those things.

Edited March 3, 2010 by jnrmac

[dazzledavey36 53,277]

very good post but jee lol that bloke has too much time on his hands!

if he reads this dont get me wrong very good post

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

It is a yes and no answer to Stakka. What we have as the over 25's is by and large a bunch of fellas that are OK but will never be superstars. What we also have is a bunch of kids that mightearn that status if all else goes well but until those kids are 23/24 we won't know what they can really do.

The ND years are marked by a huge fail when it came to our 23-27 year olds. I always liked him when he was coach but now the blinkers are off and I can see the amount of damage he did to the club. We have no forward line, our mids are slow and OK footballers at best, and the backline will find a couple retiring about the time we are ready for a shot.

I think that between the last years of ND and the crap that happened last year we are going to have a good 3-4 years before we can hold our head up, and 6-7 before we see us as a force in September.

However, if we can keep the group together with the GS & WS poaching we can build a good team but it will come down to how much the players believe in the message and how much we can show that it is a realistic one.

[H_T 3,038]

I originally posted saying we needed another tall forward. Temel or someone like him made for football now -I thought it would help.

And where is Temel now ?

[DirtyDees DDC 176]

So we have an inexperienced list and are using the NAB cup and NAB Challenge matches to develop our younger players. That's fine. Last weekend we were without our four most experienced players. Instead we played Gysberts, Bail, Strauss, McKenzie, Scully, Trengove, Fitzpatrick and other players with less than 20 games experience. It's a good way to use the pre season comp to build up their gametime and it fits in with DB's plan to get 40-50 games under their belt. We'll proably do the same this weekend, then bring back as many top players as possible for the final trial match at Casey on 13 March.

Then why did we only allow 3 listed Melbourne footballers to take the field with the Casey Scorpions in the VFL 1st elimination final last year? It was a great chance for Spencer, Bennell, Jetta, Cheney, Jurrah, Watts and others to get some valuable finals experience against a full strength Collingwood VFL side. Not everyone was injured, and of the 3 players provided by the Dees, Valenti and Zomer were delisted and Newton was demoted to the rookie list. VFL football is still a game played by senior players. Many great players such as Michael Tuck and Gary O'Donnell had to play at least 40 games in the reserves before they established themselves in the senior team. We wasted a simple opportunity here to develop our list and build a good working relationship with the people at Casey.