PREGAME: Rd 16 vs Brisbane

[CHF 2,738]

As with the majority of others on here, I see this as a very difficult game to win. However, I do not see it as impossible. 

Against North we prevailed with a large number of our players underperforming, out of sorts or just plain not looking fit for the task. (why is it that we never look good after a spell?)

Defence.

Looks as if we will welcome back Lever this week which is a good thing. The defensive structures have looked like a car with a flat tyre while he has been out. It will be good to get the Lever/May partnership back pointing and arguing. I would keep Tomlinson in the team and drop Howes for Lever at this stage. AM-W to debut is a good thing. He has flexibility to fill roles at both ends of the ground and he can cover medium/small defence or Small forward. Interestingly we have three tall defenders that were in the team as forwards last week and we may well need two of them in the team this week to give us tall defensive cover and flexibility. Brisbane have a lot of tall forward players that could bother us.

While I believe that our defence will be the key to our chances of an upset, it is the midfield where we need more polish and grunt. If they can work their arses off to pressure at HF and in the middle it will help the defence immeasurably.

Midfield.

Max needs to lead. Sounds like a strange thing to say, I know. However, last week against North he looked distracted to me. there looked to be a lot going on with him off the ball and it seemed to get to him. Viney always seems to step up when either Oliver or Petracca is out.  Last year it was Oliver out. He relishes the responsibility and was great last week. He need a few mates in there. I understand Oliver being tightly tagged and I also hear the voices critical of him and calling for him to be dropped. I have to say that those asking for him to be dropped are judging him by his champion standards of past seasons and not on his contributions for this season which are still of an excellent level. He stays in. I liked Rivers getting a run there and have always thought he should get more of an opportunity in there. Sparrow has to be challenged to step up his game. Ask him to take on more responsibility, use his strength and power a bit more. Salem, ANB, Tholstrup and Woewodin are options to run through there as well depending on the team makeup. With AM-W in the team is there a possibility for Pickett to get more minutes in the middle? If he can be effective in there he may take some of the pressure off the Oliver tag and give him a bit more space to work.

We have a lot of flexibilty and options in this area but we need to coaching staff to come up with effective structures and plans to work through both in offense and defense.

Forwards....

Hmmm... yes, forwards.... What to say? JVR? Petty? Turner? TMac forward or back? Fristch, Where has he been the last few weeks? Chandler? Kossie more midfield minutes to shore up our stacks there or have him front and center at the drop pf the ball in the forward 50? All questions and not a lot of answers.

My thoughts for this week? Persist with JVR and Petty as the two main tall targets and try to work out a way of getting more effective work out of Fristch. TMac in the side as cover forward and back. If Oliver is not effective with a hard tag I would look to play him forward for a bit as long a we get the work out of the rest of the mids. Chandler stays in and is asked to work hard on the pressure in the forward 50.

The team?

B: Lever, May McVee

HB: Bowey, Tomlinson, Salem

C: Langdon, Oliver, Windsor

HF: Sparrow, JVR, Pickett

F: Chandler, Petty, Fristch

R: Gawn, Viney, Rivers

IC: ANB,TMac, AM-W, Tholstrup, Brown (one of the last two to be sub)

[Boots and all 1,000]

6 hours ago, Roost it far said:

 

Can Oliver just go straight to Neale and hound the F out of him as well as racking up 25 touches himself? 

I like this idea. Give Clarry a role other than just chalking up possessions. Unlike many, I think Clarrie's poor form is mostly above the shoulders, this may be a way of getting him involved and back in form. 

Edited June 25 by Boots and all

[DeeSpencer 25,717]

12 hours ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

Agree with all your points except the last. You cannot debut a guy as sub who is a father / son and passionate demon supporter, bring him on with 8 minutes to go, busts his [censored] unlike some in the team and lays a game saving tackle and then send him back to Casey. I know our player management / selection has been questionable but that would be a new low. 
 

Of course you can, clubs do it all the time. Make it known he’s at a minimum sub again against West Coast.

He did very little to deserve a game to start with. Sub was a nice taste. He’ll get another go as sub. 

But I suspect AMW will get a starting gig and Brown will stay sub this week 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

fantastic stuff for andy moniz-wakefield

what's his nickname @WalkingCivilWar?

Is that a sign that Riv will be a permanent move into the midfield now?

[Beetle 4,660]

44 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

make up yer mind, kids 

 

41 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

The boys call him Monners.

I don’t know where Beetle got Amway from. Methinks he made it up himself 🙃

Yep. Made it up. 

[Guest]

Just now, Beetle said:

 

Yep. Made it up. 

It’s actually pretty clever. I just can’t see the boys embracing it. Probs not one of them under 30yo has even heard of Amway. 

[Beetle 4,660]

4 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

It’s actually pretty clever. I just can’t see the boys embracing it. Probs not one of them under 30yo has even heard of Amway. 

Probably needs to filter its way down the playing group 😉 

[whatwhat say what 22,775]

26 minutes ago, Beetle said:

 

Yep. Made it up. 

well, it's what i'mma always think of him as now

Edited June 25 by whatwhat say what

[praha 11,240]

We're out to $5.10

Has to be the longest odds we've had probably since 2016.

[DubDee 25,891]

Man we look so much better on paper with Lever back

He was arguably winning our BnF before he got injured. Makes everyone look better down back and creates many rebound chains 

[Dee Viney Intervention 1,939]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Of course you can, clubs do it all the time. Make it known he’s at a minimum sub again against West Coast.

He did very little to deserve a game to start with. Sub was a nice taste. He’ll get another go as sub. 

But I suspect AMW will get a starting gig and Brown will stay sub this week 

DeeSpencer    23,632

Posted 23 hours ago

AMW for whom? Bowey? Howes? Salem? They all have to be options. Or play him as sub. Kynan Brown can go back to Casey and push his case for a full game when he's more ready.

 

 

Once again I don’t disagree, I also thought Kynan was fortunate to gain selection on Saturday night given his body of work at Casey and I personally would have selected AMW. However Kynan was given the nod came on for the last 8 minutes and laid a game saving tackle. I say it would be poor player management to drop him to Casey on the back of that as you have suggested in the original post that I was replying to. Now you are saying tell him he will be sub as a minimum against West Coast. So he’s in, out, in. He’s not a Randy honeymooner he’s a young footballer. What would that do for his confidence and development. He has to stay in the squad even if he is the sub again.

 I also think that AMW’s good form cannot be ignored and he deserves and opportunity. For me he comes in for Salem who is being “managed” whether it be knee injury or form. Lever to come in for Tomlinson who is a bit unlucky.

 

[titan_uranus 25,020]

53 minutes ago, praha said:

We're out to $5.10

Has to be the longest odds we've had probably since 2016.

Surely in the back half of 2019 when we were being pumped weekly?

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

55 minutes ago, praha said:

We're out to $5.10

Has to be the longest odds we've had probably since 2016.

If we can limit their scoring to <80 points and not lose by more than 5 goals I’d chalk that up as a win.
 

Y’all want more positivity - there’s my contribution. 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,671]

On 22/06/2024 at 22:17, biggestred said:

10 goal loss incoming 

I’ll take that action.. ✅ 

[640MD 3,378]

The betting line is 29.5 points

if we get anywhere near that, we have played extremely well. 
 

I would think it should be 42 points or more.

say 2 goals a quarter.  With our side at the moment playing in Brisbane is about right.

how many goals can we score    At least one quarter will be zero. Like other weeks.

10 perhaps.    Not enough.  But I will watch the whole game  cheering when I can.

go Dee’s 

[DeeMee 873]

AMW in to me implies doubt over Salem getting up.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,671]

10 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

If we can limit their scoring to <80 points and not lose by more than 5 goals I’d chalk that up as a win.
 

Y’all want more positivity - there’s my contribution. 

Well with podcast leading the charge it’s only gonna get more and more negative round here! Andy in full MFCSS mode, George basically throwing baby out with bath water and in full meltdown mode — inc saying our kids are no good and that we somehow need to ‘replace’ Jackson, Brown, Hibbo, Harmes etc which is just such an archaic way to look at modern footy, the talent we have coming through is FAR superior to all above outside of maybe Jackson, but I’d argue JVR is his equal talent wise, Kos is a FAR superior player than his 21’ version, Rivers same, Mcvee >Hibbo, Turner will likely out-produce Brown of 2021 beyond, Windsor is significantly better than Jordon on talent, but they’re not replacing anyone, they are their own players! How no one else seems to notice the outlier results happening EVERYWHERE is beyond me. We convincingly beat North and had them get a bit lucky with freebie goals to give them a surge of momentum, whilst we stopped to crawl which is likely a fitness issue combined with fact we were 40 up, that’s basic psychology 101 — yet we held-on, thankfully!!! Shots on goal @george_on_the_outer? We didn’t have any in the last quarter — so we had 15 in 3qtrs which is nothing to cry about, we stopped — we had momentum taken and we held-on for dear life. 

I’m not sure who’s seeking positivity at present outside of poor @binman, who continues to support his positivity with data unlike many of the doomsday-mob — Whilst also highlighting WHAT the issues are, we can’t run atm, and our skills are poor which in a trans gameplan really shows through! 

We have clearly set ourselves for this game and I expect a strong showing. A win? Sure why not? The fact we’ve suddenly become a bottom 4 side is ludicrous — where were Brisbane jsut weeks ago? Pies at years beginning? GWS AND cats slaying now struggling, why is it so few can see how tipsy-turvy modern footy is? It’d all momentum confidence and fitness! 

Petty is fitter, Salem’s base will cont to grow, as will Clarry’s.. like AMW coming in and LEVER — check the stats on how we do without Rick?!?! Go on.. you’ll see the impact he has, seriously he makes a HUGE difference to our setup and cohesion esp in transition and organisation.  

This dourness is SO easy, it’s convenient and it highlights one’s true baseline or default — when things get hard or scary, they fold! Let’s hope our players aren’t buying into that modus operandi! It’s much harder to stay positive and keep faith in a team that’s given us so much to blv in, more so than ANY dees side since the 80’s and going beyond it with a flag. We have issues — but all clubs have this year thus far and I sure don’t wanna be Sydney who haven’t yet, cus odds are, they WILL and clock is ticking.. 

Trac being done hurts, it’s akin to Bont or Daicos being out, superior to Swans losing Heeney in impact but it certainly doesn’t rule-out a solid campaign here/in and COULD be making of Riv, Kos and others for next year.

what happens if we lose to lions by 8pts? Or steal a win? What will it be then? the frustration I have is the sourness won’t dissipate, and those piling-on won’t come round and say ‘oh, maybe I was wrong’ they’ll just enjoy the win and wait for another chance to pile-on again. THAT is the frustration, many just jump-on every single little negative even Andy talking about Curnow over Weid for goodness sake, that’s full MFCSS right there — Curnow had HUGE knocks on his character and NO ONE was gonna take him inside the top 10, based on those issues. Blues took a punt and it paid massive dividends — JT hit rate is INSANELY good in comp with contemporaries, yet when we’re flat everyone and anything gets a wash. I feel for those whom fall in a heap, I know it’s not on purpose and based on emotion, but many others make a choice to attack the club and it’s becoming really tiresome. 

Club is flat, this is when they most need to keep faith and a win against the lions would be a MASSIVE tonic and is a big ask on form, but it’s certainly not impossible! 5% off for them, 5% more on for us and it’s GAME ON peeps — youthful exuberance can swing fast, so let’s TRY not to be too OTT is all I’m asking.
 

 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,671]

13 hours ago, Boots and all said:

I like this idea. Give Clarry a role other than just chalking up possessions. Unlike many, I think Clarrie's poor form is mostly above the shoulders, this may be a way of getting him involved and back in form. 

No.. it’s because he’s being tagged EVERY single week.

[whatwhat say what 22,775]

outstanding @Tolstoys Nudge

[binman 43,020]

On 25/06/2024 at 08:30, titan_uranus said:

He’s not underperforming. He’s the foundation of our forward half pressure. 

Plenty on here bemoan perceived lack of effort or care. Chandler’s not hitting the scoreboard as much as we’d like but he’s bringing the effort and intensity.

Our top 10 pressure players against the roos (which was a very high pressure game - the roos' contest and pressure was terrific).

By the by, of all the stats I am 99% sure the correlation between winning the team pressure rating and winning is the highest - by some margin.

A curious thing about the pies last year was that for much of the season they were able to win games when they lost the team pressure rating. They were a complete outlier.

That changed come the end of year and finals when the game becomes all about the contest.

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Alex Neal-Bullen	33	80	54.4
Kade Chandler	23	61	47.2
Trent Rivers	23	52	24.9
Jack Viney	19	45	60.0
Tom Sparrow	20	45	46.0
Ed Langdon	24	45	31.2
Caleb Windsor	21	44	33.5
Koltyn Tholstrup	15	41	40.0
Clayton Oliver	15	38	45.3
Kysaiah Pickett	20	35	42.0

 

[Deestar9 1,635]

45 minutes ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

Well with podcast leading the charge it’s only gonna get more and more negative round here! Andy in full MFCSS mode, George basically throwing baby out with bath water and in full meltdown mode — inc saying our kids are no good and that we somehow need to ‘replace’ Jackson, Brown, Hibbo, Harmes etc which is just such an archaic way to look at modern footy, the talent we have coming through is FAR superior to all above outside of maybe Jackson, but I’d argue JVR is his equal talent wise, Kos is a FAR superior player than his 21’ version, Rivers same, Mcvee >Hibbo, Turner will likely out-produce Brown of 2021 beyond, Windsor is significantly better than Jordon on talent, but they’re not replacing anyone, they are their own players! How no one else seems to notice the outlier results happening EVERYWHERE is beyond me. We convincingly beat North and had them get a bit lucky with freebie goals to give them a surge of momentum, whilst we stopped to crawl which is likely a fitness issue combined with fact we were 40 up, that’s basic psychology 101 — yet we held-on, thankfully!!! Shots on goal @george_on_the_outer? We didn’t have any in the last quarter — so we had 15 in 3qtrs which is nothing to cry about, we stopped — we had momentum taken and we held-on for dear life. 

I’m not sure who’s seeking positivity at present outside of poor @binman, who continues to support his positivity with data unlike many of the doomsday-mob — Whilst also highlighting WHAT the issues are, we can’t run atm, and our skills are poor which in a trans gameplan really shows through! 

We have clearly set ourselves for this game and I expect a strong showing. A win? Sure why not? The fact we’ve suddenly become a bottom 4 side is ludicrous — where were Brisbane jsut weeks ago? Pies at years beginning? GWS AND cats slaying now struggling, why is it so few can see how tipsy-turvy modern footy is? It’d all momentum confidence and fitness! 

Petty is fitter, Salem’s base will cont to grow, as will Clarry’s.. like AMW coming in and LEVER — check the stats on how we do without Rick?!?! Go on.. you’ll see the impact he has, seriously he makes a HUGE difference to our setup and cohesion esp in transition and organisation.  

This dourness is SO easy, it’s convenient and it highlights one’s true baseline or default — when things get hard or scary, they fold! Let’s hope our players aren’t buying into that modus operandi! It’s much harder to stay positive and keep faith in a team that’s given us so much to blv in, more so than ANY dees side since the 80’s and going beyond it with a flag. We have issues — but all clubs have this year thus far and I sure don’t wanna be Sydney who haven’t yet, cus odds are, they WILL and clock is ticking.. 

Trac being done hurts, it’s akin to Bont or Daicos being out, superior to Swans losing Heeney in impact but it certainly doesn’t rule-out a solid campaign here/in and COULD be making of Riv, Kos and others for next year.

what happens if we lose to lions by 8pts? Or steal a win? What will it be then? the frustration I have is the sourness won’t dissipate, and those piling-on won’t come round and say ‘oh, maybe I was wrong’ they’ll just enjoy the win and wait for another chance to pile-on again. THAT is the frustration, many just jump-on every single little negative even Andy talking about Curnow over Weid for goodness sake, that’s full MFCSS right there — Curnow had HUGE knocks on his character and NO ONE was gonna take him inside the top 10, based on those issues. Blues took a punt and it paid massive dividends — JT hit rate is INSANELY good in comp with contemporaries, yet when we’re flat everyone and anything gets a wash. I feel for those whom fall in a heap, I know it’s not on purpose and based on emotion, but many others make a choice to attack the club and it’s becoming really tiresome. 

Club is flat, this is when they most need to keep faith and a win against the lions would be a MASSIVE tonic and is a big ask on form, but it’s certainly not impossible! 5% off for them, 5% more on for us and it’s GAME ON peeps — youthful exuberance can swing fast, so let’s TRY not to be too OTT is all I’m asking.
 

 

Wow …love this post …I’m sure eventually you’ll be worn down by the continuous negativity and sniping by the vast majority of posters but until you do …I’ll enjoy your posts ! 

[FTB 266]

1 hour ago, DeeMee said:

AMW in to me implies doubt over Salem getting up.

It says to me that Rivers will play majority midfield again and that AMW will effectively replace Rivers off half-back.

[640MD 3,378]

1 hour ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

 

We have clearly set ourselves for this game and I expect a strong showing. A win? Sure why not? 

what happens if we lose to lions by 8pts? Or steal a win? 

 

Love your positivity  I don’t understand it but welcome it. 
I truely truely hope you are correct. 
I think we are playing a long game, and looking to 2025.   Losing Gus, Smith, then Oliver starting bad,  Spargo out since round 1, Melksham missing most of this year. And persisting with Petty not contributing 

then Lever and Tracca.  
that’s one hell of a chunk of best 22 players 

our form in that light is understandable. 
after some fantastic form and winning rates it’s hard to come back to earth.

we do have some great new talent coming through. That’s the positive to the negative 

but next year.

but I do love your positive outlook 

[Left Foot Snap 2,412]

21 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Captain’s run at the Gabba on Thursday afternoon. 3:30 - 4:30

It’s an open session. 

Hi Walking, have you been told what gate entry will be for the training.

Thanks

Ps. Son and I are heading for a beer at the German Club beforehand if anyone else is like minded.

[Docs Demons 1,791]

2 hours ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

No.. it’s because he’s being tagged EVERY single week.

Yes, but our coaching leaves a bit to be desired. If he's being tagged throw him deep forward. He has the attributes to beat any tag up forward and could be dangerous. I said that V north. He would have been dangerous for Powell if he went with him forward. Same with Berry if he goes to him. See what he's like covering Clarry in our forward line.