20 hours ago, demosaw said:

Not sure about 4 yrs but Port defence was pretty good 2002-2004 in a higher scoring era, they finished top with close to lowest points against, for just the one flag.

For just one the one flag?

Can you clarify what you mean.

I might be well be misinterpreting you, but you seem to be implying port underachieved.

And i get the sense that you are also implying that having an incredible defence is not that significant in terms of our Premiership chances.

Again, i may well have the wrong end of the stick, but if not yoy might want to come up work a better example- Lyon's first stint at the saints perhaps.

Because in the three seasons you note Port WON one flag.

In 170 seasons the dees have won 13 flags.

That averages out to aprox a flag every 13 years.

Call me crazy, but I suspect most teams would be pretty happy with a flag every three years.

Edited May 1, 2024May 1 by binman

It’s an interesting point.

Hawkins is now primarily a Decoy Forward, to keep his opponent out of the game. 
Can he do that to TMac or May?

31 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

That's an explosion in a fact factory!

Sad thing is I could probably do this for nearly every MCG game in the past 10 years.

8 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

It’s an interesting point.

Hawkins is now primarily a Decoy Forward, to keep his opponent out of the game. 
Can he do that to TMac or May?

We know how often people play their best games against us. Just recently Cam Rayner was the perfect example.

I expect Hawkins to break his goal drought against us.

I see that we play the Blues off a 5 day break after the Cats, all the while having played 3 games in 12 days not too long ago.

How [censored] is that fixturing? 

59 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

 

We arent even close to looking at 60K.

If we look at things objectively, we bring 25-30K to a game like this, i can't see any more than 20K of them attending and its not going to be a big neutral turn out.

MCC sales arent good enough for this to be a 60K which is what we rely on. Happy to be wrong, but we are looking at high 40s, low 50s.

Agree... the MFC band wagon is not rolling and Saturday night is not a big crowd night.

50k will give us a decent return but 70k would be so much better.

Looking like a cool but low wind and no rain evening

Match-ups are going to be crucial this week. I say that because it seems that numerous Cats are extremely versatile.

There's the givens: TMac on Cameron and May on Hawkins. I'd be thinking Judd and Howes on Miers and Stengle. Lever on O.Henry.

Tuohy was named at HBv the Blues but booted 3.0. He may well be named HB again but there's no match up there for him there other than ANB or Disco.

I know I'm stating the bleeding obvious but Petty needs to step up. I think he'll get Kolodjashnij and, at his best, he is a much better player. Stewart to Fritta (break even) and SdK to JvR (break even).

Hopefully Clarry can have the impact he's yet to have this year.

My tip: Cats by 3 goals.

Edited May 1, 2024May 1 by M_9

1 hour ago, FearTheBeard said:

He would learn a lot, but we would also concede a hell of a lot.

JVR/May arent mobile enough to play on Cameron. No Key backs in the competition are.

I'd put Tmac on him and tell him to run straight lines up the wing all night with him.

I think TMac is actually the ideal matchup. Cameron isnt as agile as many think, but will concede he is more athletic than TMac. Jezza's strengths are his tank, strength and finishing. TMac can match him in 2/3 and if successful render the 3rd skill ineffectual. 

41 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

I see that we play the Blues off a 5 day break after the Cats, all the while having played 3 games in 12 days not too long ago.

How [censored] is that fixturing? 

i mentioned earlier that the BLues have yet to have a 5 day break either whilst many in the comp have had 1-2 already. Tell me who the AFL is supporting without telling me who the AFL is supporting

3 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

Whilst Hunter has moments of brilliance, I'm not sure he really offers anything more than what we have in the side at the moment. His underground handballs are frequently intercepted, and he doesn't exactly offer speed in the spread out of the contest or around the ground. I commend his ability to kick the miraculous goal, but he doesn't hit the scoreboard enough IMO to justify inclusion on that ground. 

I'd much rather give the game time to Windsor; his skills are far superior and he can also kick a classy goal (though I wouldn't depend on him week in week out for a Joe the Goose). 

Windsor was subbed off last week, most likely because he looked tired and turned the ball over.

It wouldn't surprise at all to see him have a break as a first year player. And bring the experienced, solid-bodied Hunter in against geelong.

The main issue for me is that Geelong are fast between the arcs and I am not sure Hunter is match fit enough.

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Us by 17

71,453

I was actually attributing these numbers to the Blue match

Geelong

us by 21

61,578

Tmcd to play on Cameron. 

ummmm it’s a no from me 

1 minute ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tmcd to play on Cameron. 

ummmm it’s a no from me 

Lever will take Cameron and then I have no idea who will when he roams up the ground. Anyone?

57 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Agree... the MFC band wagon is not rolling and Saturday night is not a big crowd night.

50k will give us a decent return but 70k would be so much better.

Looking like a cool but low wind and no rain evening

4 of us are making the trip down from Brisbane…that might not get us to 70k but we’re also dragging 5 others with us from Melbourne that wouldn’t ordinarily attend…and for reference our biggest ever home and away crowd against the cats is 58,208 so hopefully the nine of us push us past that 🤞

 

 

19 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tmcd to play on Cameron. 

ummmm it’s a no from me 

TMac and May to tag team between Hawkins and Cameron. I'm not against Howes taking Cameron too. 

I think Rivers on Cameron is our best match up - will keep up with him for pace and will force Cameron to think a bit defensively.

1 hour ago, binman said:

For just one the one flag?

@binman, yes this was port’s best period, built on defence. Had a fair offence too. Unluckily for them it coincided with Brisbane’s three-peat. One flag in 4 yrs was good, maybe one in 27 OK too, but it was just one (fact). Port would have wanted more.

I’m with you, Roos, Goody that defence is everything - the foundation for regular flag forays. I’m hoping our current period of defensive excellence yields at least another.

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

We know how often people play their best games against us. Just recently Cam Rayner was the perfect example.

I expect Hawkins to break his goal drought against us.

May owes him big time.

Tipping a midfield revival especially from Vines and Trac

A ripping 12 point win coming up

53 minutes ago, Ollie fan said:

I think Rivers on Cameron is our best match up - will keep up with him for pace and will force Cameron to think a bit defensively.

I like it

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Windsor was subbed off last week, most likely because he looked tired and turned the ball over.

It wouldn't surprise at all to see him have a break as a first year player. And bring the experienced, solid-bodied Hunter in against geelong.

The main issue for me is that Geelong are fast between the arcs and I am not sure Hunter is match fit enough.

Hunter in was my thought too, for the same reason ie strong, seasoned player.

I was thinking Windsor might he sub. 

But I think you make an excellent point about our need for speed - generally, but particularly against the cats who are both quick and also play a back half, transition game.

And Windsor out, Hunter in is a bad combo in terms of leg speed.

So, I'm changing my prediction to no change.

27 minutes ago, Willmoy1947 said:

May owes him big time.

Yep.

Just a gentle push in the lower back as Hawkins jumps to mark, below his centre of gravity so he rotates backwards enough to lose balance and rip a several centimetre tear in one of his hammies as he tries to recover upon landing, à la the 2021 prelim.

Or maybe May can swing a careless arm backwards to collect him in the face feigning being off balance during a tackle near the boundary. 

I'm sure there are more.

3 hours ago, binman said:

For just one the one flag?

Can you clarify what you mean.

I might be well be misinterpreting you, but you seem to be implying port underachieved.

And i get the sense that you are also implying that having an incredible defence is not that significant in terms of our Premiership chances.

Again, i may well have the wrong end of the stick, but if not yoy might want to come up work a better example- Lyon's first stint at the saints perhaps.

Because in the three seasons you note Port WON one flag.

In 170 seasons the dees have won 13 flags.

That averages out to aprox a flag every 13 years.

Call me crazy, but I suspect most teams would be pretty happy with a flag every three years.

The MFC premierships are not evenly distributed though are they. 
 

They’re a bit more of a normal distribution centred around the 40s/50s?

So for me the question is - are you happy with 1 in the last 60?

I’m not happy with 1 since 1978 when I was born. 

Well, in a perfect world, you'd get a premiership once every 18 years (a 5.5% chance annually)... so 4 in total over the course of a life time to feel satisfied?

Being a child of the late 70's/80's - I never thought we'd win one.

So I feel fairly satisfied, and shake my head at myself and my naivety for daring to buy into the notion from 22 onwards,  that we 'could' have a dynasty with the list that we had/have... because, that very very rarely happens, and has either happened due to draft concessions affecting other teams whilst your playing list is of a certain calibre, or $$ behind closed doors...

Edited May 1, 2024May 1 by Engorged Onion

This list needs to win another, we all know it. You only need to look back to last years finals to see what a wasted opportunity looks like. We had the Pies on toast and forgot the butter.