PODCAST: Rd 01 vs Western Bulldogs

[Demonland 64,806]

We’ll be LIVE at 8:30pm

Listen & Chat LIVE: https://demonland.com/podcast

Call: 03 9016 3666

Skype: Demonland31

[Demonland 64,806]

[demosaw 824]

On 18/03/2024 at 00:41, Clayton van Oliver said:

Segment would need to be called 'In the bin'

We should ‘rock and roll’ with this segment, the music should be ‘It's bin a long time, bin a long time
Bin a long lonely, lonely, lonely, lonely, lonely time….’

[Palace Dees 2,002]

At 2hrs, 35 mins and 32 seconds we have a new epic on our hands.

Gone with the Win?

[Demonland 64,806]

 

[binman 38,014]

26 minutes ago, Palace Dees said:

At 2hrs, 35 mins and 32 seconds we have a new epic on our hands.

Gone with the Win?

It began with a review from Finland, and then ironically seemed it was never going to Finnish.

[leave it to deever 15,336]

Tx to the caller previously known as Dontmakemeangry . He livens things up.

Interesting how far away some supporters are but still just as keen.

Thanks again Andy, George and Binners.

Ps can someone please clarify the metric metres gained. Is this the same as the USA stat ?

[whatwhat say what 18,918]

great listen again lads

i would be happy for you to do a daily podcast for 30 mins to an hour

it's on my 'must listen' list the minute i see that it's gone live, along with the likes of nyt daily, indiecast, and slate's hit parade

[Deeoldfart 7,720]

Another great pod …... both insightful and entertaining.  Thanks guys.

[binman 38,014]

27 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Tx to the caller previously known as Dontmakemeangry . He livens things up.

Interesting how far away some supporters are but still just as keen.

Thanks again Andy, George and Binners.

Ps can someone please clarify the metric metres gained. Is this the same as the USA stat ?

Now known as Do make me enzo.

Its a Champion data stat defined as:

Metres Gained:

Net metres gained with the ball by a player, by running, kicking or handballing, combining measures towards attacking goal and away from defensive goal.

A huge frustration of mine is that Champion Data lock up so much of their data (which is their right, but the AFL are the contractors and could make it a requirement all data is made available). @WheeloRatings

So, for example in looking up the definition of metres gained i say this definition:

Metres Gained (Assisted):

Total metres gained by a teammate that receives an uncontested possession from your disposal.

That would be fascinating data because it would give an insight into which players are critical to effective transition 9in the same way that say score involvements data gives an insight into which players are important in scoring chains and on transition).

And it might also give an insight into he role of specific players and/or another data point to help asses how well they performed.  

For example, some thought Lever didn't have a great game. But he was involved in 8 score involvements which suggests he played an important role on transition.

If he also had high Metres Gained (Assisted) numbers that would reinforce his importance to how we moved the ball forward.

[Demonland 64,806]

56 minutes ago, binman said:

Now known as Do make me enzo.

Its a Champion data stat defined as:

Metres Gained:

Net metres gained with the ball by a player, by running, kicking or handballing, combining measures towards attacking goal and away from defensive goal.

A huge frustration of mine is that Champion Data lock up so much of their data (which is their right, but the AFL are the contractors and could make it a requirement all data is made available). @WheeloRatings

So, for example in looking up the definition of metres gained i say this definition:

Metres Gained (Assisted):

Total metres gained by a teammate that receives an uncontested possession from your disposal.

That would be fascinating data because it would give an insight into which players are critical to effective transition 9in the same way that say score involvements data gives an insight into which players are important in scoring chains and on transition).

And it might also give an insight into he role of specific players and/or another data point to help asses how well they performed.  

For example, some thought Lever didn't have a great game. But he was involved in 8 score involvements which suggests he played an important role on transition.

If he also had high Metres Gained (Assisted) numbers that would reinforce his importance to how we moved the ball forward.

I think a further metric to Metres Gained in your first example would be Effective Metres Gained. This would eliminate any dump kicks that end up in the oppositions hands.

[BLWNBA 348]

First time listening to the podcast and I have to give massive wraps, it's a great product. @binman is an especially engaging speaker! Great stuff, will be definitely tuning in from hereon in. 

[leave it to deever 15,336]

Just my two cents the topic of Goody being stubborn. I'd say he is. Sometimes it's an attribute that pays off.

I think this year he may be becoming more for flexible.

He's been under the pump recently so maybe he's accepting criticism more readily. Or maybe he's simply evolving as an Afl coach.

Made some great changes last round so credit where it's due.

[leave it to deever 15,336]

2 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

First time listening to the podcast and I have to give massive wraps, it's a great product. @binman is an especially engaging speaker! Great stuff, will be definitely tuning in from hereon in. 

Sorry I pressed the vomit emoji accidentally.

Agree it's a good insight into things one often misses when watching the game full of emotion.

[BLWNBA 348]

1 minute ago, leave it to deever said:

Sorry I pressed the vomit emoji accidentally.

Agree it's a good insight into things one often misses when watching the game full of emotion.

All good mate, to be honest I anticipated that was likely why it had the vomit emoji! 

[Demonland 64,806]

 

[WheeloRatings 906]

On 19/03/2024 at 11:01, Demonland said:

I think a further metric to Metres Gained in your first example would be Effective Metres Gained. This would eliminate any dump kicks that end up in the oppositions hands.

@binman

Here's an article from 2019 from Jake Michaels (from the excellent ESPN Footy Podcast) describing metres gained, effective metres gained, assisted metres gained, and net metres gained (metres gained + assisted metres gained):

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27199381/metres-gained-breaking-afl-most-misunderstood-statistic

@Demonland the dump kick (40+ metres) that goes to a 50/50 contest but ends up in the opposition hands is an effective kick, which is one limitation with effective kicks and effective metres gained.

• Effective Long Kick: A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team.
• Effective Short Kick: A kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession. Does not include kicks that are spoiled by the opposition.
• (Source: https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)

[Sir Why You Little 34,441]

Listening to the Podcast from the grey skies of Southern Thailand. Hearing Enzo again got me laughing.

Binman has a complete love affair with Goodwin

Yes we all know the win/loss ratio, but of course there was no mention of losing 4 finals in a row at The MCG. 

There is internal pressure on Goodwin to perform this year. He has to use this list of players a lot better than previous years. I hope he does. 
Time will tell…..

[Wells 11 4,703]

Great podcast as always. It’s a must listen now and I love the analysis, the intelligence  and the passion . You guys seriously rock. 

[Watson11 1,882]

Great podcast.  You almost have them long enough so they occupy a full week of my daily commute. 

 @binman  I know you like to point out how loading impacts performance.  A minor problem in this case re Brisbane.  Michael Voss was Brisbanes coach 11 years ago, and it was he who spoke about it at his presser, not Fagan.  Despite this Carlton came back from 46 points down against the lions. So loading is not always directly the cause of poor form.

Or maybe Fagan didn’t mention it and they are loading even more than Carlton 😃

[binman 38,014]

31 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Great podcast.  You almost have them long enough so they occupy a full week of my daily commute. 

 @binman  I know you like to point out how loading impacts performance.  A minor problem in this case re Brisbane.  Michael Voss was Brisbanes coach 11 years ago, and it was he who spoke about it at his presser, not Fagan.  Despite this Carlton came back from 46 points down against the lions. So loading is not always directly the cause of poor form.

Or maybe Fagan didn’t mention it and they are loading even more than Carlton 😃

Ah yes, right you are. That's like a weird version of dyslexia - FCD  (football coach dyslexia).

I hope for Fagan"s sake they have been flogging them on the track because twice now they have come our hard, got a lead and been swamped.

By the by, 'm looking forward to seeing how goody matches up tactically against clarkson on Saturday.

[leave it to deever 15,336]

On 19/03/2024 at 10:03, binman said:

For example, some thought Lever didn't have a great game. But he was involved in 8 score involvements which suggests he played an important role on transition.

If he also had high Metres Gained (Assisted) numbers that would reinforce his importance to how we moved the ball forward.

It's not necessarily a definite measure of a good game.

With regard to Lever, he had a high metres gained ranking because he kicks the ball more often than handballs.

He had 14 kicks and 4 handballs. Not a bad effort but if it were the other way around or say a midfielder with 7 kicks and 20 handballs the mg is much lower.

Plus as you say it doesn't include long panic kicks out of the backline . Not saying Lever did this but just 11 fifty metre kicks and your on par with Olivers mgained regardless of where they go.To be fair to Jake, he was pretty good hitting targets.

 

Edited March 20 by leave it to deever

[Master Chief 72]

Another excellent Podcast boys. The longer the better I say. Where else do you get 2 and a half hours of All Dees content during the week?

My dog did not complain having to walk an extra few blocks so I could finish listening to @binman’s stats file. 

[binman 38,014]

2 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

It's not necessarily a definite measure of a good game.

With regard to Lever, he had a high metres gained ranking because he kicks the ball more often than handballs.

He had 14 kicks and 4 handballs. Not a bad effort but if it were the other way around or say a midfielder with 7 kicks and 20 handballs the mg is much lower.

Plus as you say it doesn't include long panic kicks out of the backline . Not saying Lever did this but just 11 fifty metre kicks and your on par with Olivers mg.

 

Agree metres gained isn't in of itself a definite measure of a good game

(I don't think any individual stat in isolation, except for perhaps goals kicked, are a good measure to assess overall performance. Triangulating  multiple stats provides a much better picture of a players performance).

For example, if one player does all the kick outs, as May has done in the previous 3 seasons his metres gained stats are of little value.

For example in the 2021, 2023 and 2023 seasons May took 90% of our kicks outs, and most of them were sixty metre bombs to the half back flank. Meaning, given he usually played on, he'd be credited with 75 metres gained for each kick out. 

(by the by, we started tinkering with our kick out strategies late last year, but this year have moved from tinkering to radical change. I'd be guessing May has only taken something like 30% of kicks outs, with the rest shared by other defenders, the kick outs are no longer always going to the HB and we are not kicking to Maxy very often - which incidentally is great in terms off Maxy not getting smashed as much).

And as you suggest, if say a long kick comes straight back because it went straight to an opposition player than those metres gained are of little value either - which is why as Andy suggests Effective Metres Gained data would be useful.

So i agree that metres gained in of itself is that not that useful. Which is why i'd love to have access to the Metres Gained Assisted stats as it would address the issue you flag about weighting long kicks over handballs.

Metres Gained Assisted is the total metres gained by a teammate that receives an uncontested possession from that players disposal.

So, in your example Clarry had 14 handballs. Not much metres gained in those. But if many of those handballs set up good transition and/or helped us gain territory (eg Clarry handballs to Rivers  who then runs and carries and kicks it 60 metres), as i suspect they did, his Metres Gained Assisted numbers would be very strong.

Clarry had 589 metres gained. Impressive - and second only to Maysie (whose numbers were padded a bit by his kick outs). 

But if say he also had the most assisted Metres Gained (which wouldn't surprise me) then suddenly his game looks even stronger. And perhaps maysie also had great Metres gained assisted numbers.

The coaches of course have access to all of Champion Data's data, and all would drill down on it. Clarry got the most coaches votes for against the dogs with 9 and maysie was second with 8. 

In all likelihood those votes were informed by an analysis of the full range of Champion Data and internal stats. But I'll bet my bottom dollar may doesn't get a Brownlow vote for this game because i doubt the the umpires drill down on the data at all and so go on what they have seen and perhaps the old school possession numbers.

Just on Lever, and my point about using multiple data points to assess a players performance, he only had 170 metres gained (he had almost twice that against the Swans).

From memory i highlighted on the pod his 8 score involvements and 17 possessions not his metres gained (though my memory ain't what it was, so i might have muddled that up) as evidence of him having a good game.

Lever's score involvements suggest to me that his possessions were effective because to be involved in 8 scoring chains at least half of his possessions helped us move the ball forward and score.

But drilling down a bit further, which is really easy to to on @WheeloRatings excellent website, you can triangulate other data to get a fuller picture of Lever's game.

His Champion Data player's ratings (which i think is an excellent measure) for the Swan's game was 5.4, but in the dogs game it was 8.9.

He had an equal match high 10 intercept possessions (rivers also had 10), which is excellent as intercept possessions are no doubt one of his KPIs (he only had 4 against the Swans). 

His disposal efficiency in the Dogs game was 82.4, suggesting he didn't miss many targets by foot.

But he also had six clangers (an error made by a player resulting in a negative result for his side), the second most behind Clarry, which surprised me but probably not @Damo as those clangers jumped out for him watching the game, whereas i didn't really notice them. 

(note: clangers are different to 'disposal clangers', which are defined as 'any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over' to an opponent).

I cant see what his turnovers were for the game, but in his two games thus far he has averaged 3 turnovers, so unless he had none against the Swans he wasn't too bad for this stat against the dogs. 

A definite negative was he gave away 9 free kicks - the most by any player on the ground (Harmes and McNeil each away 3 and Salo and chandler gave away 2). That surprised me.

He had 9 contested possessions (and weirdly 11 uncontested possessions - i say weird becuase he was only credited with 17 possessions in total) after only having one against the Swans.

Perhaps my rating of 'terrific' was too positive given his clangers and frees he gave away but taken together those numbers still add up to a really good game i reckon.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_player.html?ID=2311a9&Season=2024

Edited March 21 by binman

[Demon Dynasty 15,411]

Another solid episode thanks gents.

George highlighted the structural aspect with T-Mac down back & BBB up forward which helped straighten and right the ship from the week before.

T-Mac wld've also pleased the coach & Chaplin.  Hitting a number of sharp short passes exiting 50 vs Tommo's longer attempts and dumps that may have resulted in a few more turnovers & immediate slingshot rebounds / repeat entries the week before?

Also worth noting that, according to some scribes, the Swans tend to play a much higher press than the Doggies.  Is this correct?

If so, we may need to take this into account when comparing why we didn't do so well the week before.

Not just rusty in implementing the new strat but could it partially be due to the Swans not allowing us to do so as a result of their higher press? 

A higher press results in a more crowded defensive 50 and our defenders having more difficulty finding free short targets due to the extra pressure coming from more numbers around this part of the ground and their ability to close down space quicker due to closer proximity.

That in turn might (in theory) result in more turnovers closer to our goal and more scores / goals to the oppo from those turnovers sources yes?

It's only a theory but i think we need to at least consider this against teams that are looking to bring a higher press (more effective disruption of our defensive exit strat) vs those that might not be (yet) such as the Doggies?

Edited March 21 by Demon Dynasty