Mid Season Player Rating Review - Forwards

Jack Billings (Mid Forward  28yo  185cm)

Rnds 1 to 7 vs Rnds 8 to 13

Billings has played the equivalent of just over 9 games this season if you include his subbed game time.

In this 6 v 6 round comparison, he has played the equivalent of just over 5.5 games during the six matches from Rnds 1 to 7 and three games in the last six matches during Rnds 8 to 13.

I would not normally do a comparison if a player has played less than four matches in a six week block but just putting this out there for interests sake.

It is worth noting that for a mid - forward he does not kick many goals, only kicking two goals in total with his last goal against the Hawks in Rnd 2.

Has he been playing higher up the ground in the later rounds?  Rebounds up slightly vs the earlier block and inside 50s down by about half.

His Player Rating in the earlier 6 matches was reasonably good if you see him as a mostly HHF type at 2.5 but has since dropped away by 23% to 1.9  Part of that drop can be explained by less time on ground, dropping 8%.  That makes the fall roughly 15%.

To put that into some context, i'm assuming a close comparison might be Chandler?  During this same 6 week block his Rating was 2.4 and has also now dropped to 1.9 during the later Rnds 8 to 13, the same rating as Billings.

The drop off in this last 6 rounds by so many is astonishing.  You have to ask what the hec has happened to this group since Rnd 9 vs the Cats.

I'm guessing it comes down to a massive drop away in contested, clearances, scores from turnover and our ability (or lack thereof) to now defend the oppo transitioning and scoring from turnover.  Plus a lack of pressure allover the park compared to previous years.  Moving too far away from our DNA as many have already pointed out.

#14  J Billings	Rnds 1 to 7	Rnds 8 to 13	% Change
Contested Poss	4.7	5.0	6.6
Uncontested Poss	13.6	13.9	2.1
Effective Disposals*	12.5	11.6	-7.6
Disposal Effeciency %	58.2	61.5	3.4
Contested Marks*	0.0	0.0	-
Marks inside 50*	0.4	0.7	84.8
One Percenters*	0.7	0.3	-53.8
Clearances*	0.2	1.0	454.3
Rebound 50s*	1.3	1.3	5.6
Inside 50s*	2.9	1.3	-53.8
Tackles*	2.2	3.0	38.6
Score Involvements*	5.2	3.6	-29.9
Meters Gained	278.1	344.7	23.9
Turnovers*	3.0	4.6	52.2
Intercepts*	1.4	1.3	-7.6
Tackles Inside 50*	0.5	0.3	-38.4
Time On Ground %	73.7	65.5	-8.2
Goals*	0.4	0.0	-100.0
Hit Outs to Adv*	0.0	0.0	-
*DD's Player Rating	2.5	1.9	-23.6

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited June 12, 20241 yr by Demon Dynasty

I’d move Billings to a crumbing role, and give Kozi more on ball time. Billings can kick goals, isn’t very effective as a winger, and Kozi needs more time on ball now Petracca is out. 

On 10/10/2023 at 17:17, spirit of norm smith said:

Jack Nicholson says “no no no”. 

Bump.  

The Dees parted with their future third-round pick in exchange for him.  Future 3rd is now pick 43 in this draft.  I was not keen and he will certainly not improve. His skill and kicking (especially his goalkicking) was sub standard.  4 goals in 16 games from half forward.  Warning to all that are now considering Macrae and Caleb Daniel. No !!! We shouldn’t be a salary dumping ground for players in decline 

6 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

No !!! We shouldn’t be a salary dumping ground for players in decline 

Just this 

List Management & player trading should make the team better. The last 3 years have made it worse. Whoever is responsible should go.

He is a classic not quite right. Good at vfl level not at the top level. 

If there is an example of a bloke not suiting our game style, it is Jack Billings.

If we transitioned to the faster, more skill based method, he could potentially add a lot more impact - not saying he will but it wouldn’t hurt to try

Edited September 11, 2024Sep 11 by BW511

4 minutes ago, BW511 said:

If there is a better example of a bloke not suiting our game style, it is Jack Billings.

If we transitioned to the faster, more skill based method, he could potentially add a lot more impact - not saying he will but it wouldn’t hurt to try

Bit of a catch 22 tho. One of the reason we don’t move the ball faster is because we have Billings at half forward who can’t find space on the lead or defend a quick turnover.

He did have some moments in the first half of the year when we moved the ball ok at times. He just flubbed most of them. 

Back half of the year, whatever was left of our midfield was pretty cooked. Not point flogging that dead horse.

14 minutes ago, BW511 said:

If there is an example of a bloke not suiting our game style, it is Jack Billings.

If we transitioned to the faster, more skill based method, he could potentially add a lot more impact - not saying he will but it wouldn’t hurt to try

Not so sure if a faster game style would suit Jack in any way at all.

9 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Not so sure if a faster game style would suit Jack in any way at all.

His contribution earlier in the year was certainly better, when we were playing the faster and more attacking gamestyle.

He suffers from the same thing everyone else does, spend all their tickets defending space and have zero left when it counts.

There’s certainly limitations in what Jack can do as a footballer but he’s being asked to be something he’s not, particularly when he was probably sold a very different story on recruitment.

I should add, I’m not a Jack Billing’s superfan, far from it, but every player that had an ounce of attack in our squad has slowly been ground down to become a defensive robot

 

Edited September 11, 2024Sep 11 by BW511

On 12/06/2024 at 20:22, Demon Dynasty said:

Mid Season Player Rating Review - Forwards

Jack Billings (Mid Forward  28yo  185cm)

Rnds 1 to 7 vs Rnds 8 to 13

Billings has played the equivalent of just over 9 games this season if you include his subbed game time.

In this 6 v 6 round comparison, he has played the equivalent of just over 5.5 games during the six matches from Rnds 1 to 7 and three games in the last six matches during Rnds 8 to 13.

I would not normally do a comparison if a player has played less than four matches in a six week block but just putting this out there for interests sake.

It is worth noting that for a mid - forward he does not kick many goals, only kicking two goals in total with his last goal against the Hawks in Rnd 2.

Has he been playing higher up the ground in the later rounds?  Rebounds up slightly vs the earlier block and inside 50s down by about half.

His Player Rating in the earlier 6 matches was reasonably good if you see him as a mostly HHF type at 2.5 but has since dropped away by 23% to 1.9  Part of that drop can be explained by less time on ground, dropping 8%.  That makes the fall roughly 15%.

To put that into some context, i'm assuming a close comparison might be Chandler?  During this same 6 week block his Rating was 2.4 and has also now dropped to 1.9 during the later Rnds 8 to 13, the same rating as Billings.

The drop off in this last 6 rounds by so many is astonishing.  You have to ask what the hec has happened to this group since Rnd 9 vs the Cats.

I'm guessing it comes down to a massive drop away in contested, clearances, scores from turnover and our ability (or lack thereof) to now defend the oppo transitioning and scoring from turnover.  Plus a lack of pressure allover the park compared to previous years.  Moving too far away from our DNA as many have already pointed out.

#14  J Billings	Rnds 1 to 7	Rnds 8 to 13	% Change
Contested Poss	4.7	5.0	6.6
Uncontested Poss	13.6	13.9	2.1
Effective Disposals*	12.5	11.6	-7.6
Disposal Effeciency %	58.2	61.5	3.4
Contested Marks*	0.0	0.0	-
Marks inside 50*	0.4	0.7	84.8
One Percenters*	0.7	0.3	-53.8
Clearances*	0.2	1.0	454.3
Rebound 50s*	1.3	1.3	5.6
Inside 50s*	2.9	1.3	-53.8
Tackles*	2.2	3.0	38.6
Score Involvements*	5.2	3.6	-29.9
Meters Gained	278.1	344.7	23.9
Turnovers*	3.0	4.6	52.2
Intercepts*	1.4	1.3	-7.6
Tackles Inside 50*	0.5	0.3	-38.4
Time On Ground %	73.7	65.5	-8.2
Goals*	0.4	0.0	-100.0
Hit Outs to Adv*	0.0	0.0	-
*DD's Player Rating	2.5	1.9	-23.6

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Good to see his turnovers improved......Oh yeah!

Can't kick 40m.  Wouldn't have played in the last rounds if Windsor was available.

On 12/06/2024 at 11:27, Demon Jack said:

Strikes me as a 'cherry on top' kind of player.

Biggest issue is he didn't get to be the cherry on top in our cursed season.  Might have a better opportunity next year but may struggle to get in the team. 

Would love Jack Billings to practice his goal kicking, I feel like he had a lot of misses this year which he really should have kicked as a forward.

24 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

Would love Jack Billings to practice his goal kicking, I feel like he had a lot of misses this year which he really should have kicked as a forward.

4 goals 8 behinds 5 out of bounds. 
22% accuracy.  FFS. Poor is the word.  Practice is an understatement!!! 

4 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

4 goals 8 behinds 5 out of bounds. 
22% accuracy.  FFS. Poor is the word.  Practice is an understatement!!! 

its hard to be accurate when you can only kick the ball 30m

The guy looks okay a lot of the game until he's kicking for goal...that last goal attempt he had in our last game when he was running into an open goal and hit the post pretty much summed it up.  Just makes me feel sorry for him, he should be better, if I were him I'd be feeling like I should be better and practicing my [censored] off.

21 hours ago, Young Angus said:

Would love Jack Billings to practice his goal kicking, I feel like he had a lot of misses this year which he really should have kicked as a forward.

Billings kind of reminds me of Leon Cameron as a player where he really struggled in front of goal but could hit any target on the chest. 

16 games @ 15 possessions a game and 4.8 is absolutely commensurate value for a future 3rd rounder we paid for him. He was also coverage for Windsor when he got injured and Hunter was finished. However, imagine if we gave up our first rounder for him.

He looked really promising in the early Dogs and Hawthorn games averaging 22 possessions/10 marks/1 goal a game. Could have had a big Gather Round game against Adelaide with 3.0 instead of 0.3. Then just became a meh player until he was dropped mid season for 6 weeks. Admittedly he was quite reasonable in replacement of Windsor in the last month.

Unlikely to be in our best 23 next year you'd suspect.

21 hours ago, biggestred said:

its hard to be accurate when you can only kick the ball 30m

the kicks out of bounds went more than 30 m

On 12/09/2024 at 10:32, george_on_the_outer said:

Good to see his turnovers improved......Oh yeah!

Can't kick 40m.  Wouldn't have played in the last rounds if Windsor was available.

I have to assume this is a cynical take George as his turnovers got worse in the latter block of games

He actually looked 'ok' in small patches during some games but his lack of.penetratiom and inability to kick goals is a major weakness.

Also as a small HHF or winger covering for Windsor he doesn't bring much pressure when we don't have the ball.

This last part killed us in general this season.  We were a terrible pressure team for the most part, only making the AFL average of 180 on a few occasions.

You look at GWS & Sydney's pressure levels in the last quarter of their final

GWS off the charts at 227!

Yet just pipped by Sydney if you can believe it at 232

We were a mile off these teams at their best this season in this regard.  Billings and the likes of McAdam (when he played) great examples of who you don't want in your team going forward IF they can't find this aspect coming into 2025.

Need to move them on and quickly if so and replace with better.

Edited September 13, 2024Sep 13 by Demon Dynasty

If he gets a game next year we are in serious trouble..... oh Waaaaiiit

4 goals 8 behinds 5 out of bounds.  22% accuracy rate.  His disposals were poor. 
Kicks it 30 metres. 
Surely we have Throlstrup play the half forward role ahead of Billings.  I’d even prefer now that we are surprisingly keeping Sestan to give him a chance to play. 

On 13/09/2024 at 08:34, layzie said:

Billings kind of reminds me of Leon Cameron as a player where he really struggled in front of goal but could hit any target on the chest. 

Yeah that's how I see him most of the time...very frustrating when it comes to goal kicking, just doesn't make sense, poor guy just looks scared.

1 hour ago, Young Angus said:

Yeah that's how I see him most of the time...very frustrating when it comes to goal kicking, just doesn't make sense, poor guy just looks scared.

Scared is putting it mildly. He looks like he's been dropped in the middle of a Vietnam jungle every time he's taking a set shot. I don't mean to trivialize it but he genuinely looks like he has sporting PTSD. I'm just not sure moving to Melbourne can cure you of a St Kilda disease.

 

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

4 goals 8 behinds 5 out of bounds.  22% accuracy rate.  His disposals were poor. 
Kicks it 30 metres. 
Surely we have Throlstrup play the half forward role ahead of Billings.  I’d even prefer now that we are surprisingly keeping Sestan to give him a chance to play. 

That's just so not good enough.