Harley Reid

[Surfer Dee 210]

My vote is for two top ten picks if we can swing it. We have Petracca so our need for Reid is slightly reduced. I'd argue there's value around some of the talls at this draft...

 I'd be targeting an impact forward, and a key defender. That may be dursma or Watson...

[Bozo 73]

Forget Reid, trade for Mckercher.

[Lord Travis 10,692]

14 minutes ago, Surfer Dee said:

My vote is for two top ten picks if we can swing it. We have Petracca so our need for Reid is slightly reduced. I'd argue there's value around some of the talls at this draft...

 I'd be targeting an impact forward, and a key defender. That may be dursma or Watson...

Petracca is 28 next year. Whoever we draft likely won't be having a big impact until Trac is in his 30s and winding down. This is about finding our next Trac, and we're presented with a rare opportunity at the top end of the draft that we likely won't have again for many years to come. 

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

Another complication will be just how many list spots we actually have. At the moment, we have 4 draft picks and Kynan Brown to come through after them (as projected at the moment). However, we've only got 5 out of contract players and 5 rookies out of contract - of which Disco Turner should come up to the main list. So really 4 lists spots, and those OOC are Hibberd, Melksham, JJ, Dunstan and Woey Jnr. So Woey Jnr will get another contract for sure, Dunstan is probably out and JJ might seek more opportunities then Hibberd and Melk are wait and see. So unless we move more guys on, then we don't have enough list spots for the draft picks we have at the moment (incl. Brown). Of course there's plenty of ways to get creative, but we might only want to take 1 or 2 picks on board (plus Brown).

Edited July 24, 2023 by Red and Blue realist

[Colm 2,055]

44 minutes ago, Bozo said:

Forget Reid, trade for Mckercher.

If North are given access to Sanders then this might make sense.  Can’t see them taking 2 mids as they are already well stocked. Moving back from 2 to 4/5 might still allow them to get the player they want and pick up an extra pick at the same time. 

[Nascent 9,063]

6 minutes ago, Colm said:

If North are given access to Sanders then this might make sense.  Can’t see them taking 2 mids as they are already well stocked. Moving back from 2 to 4/5 might still allow them to get the player they want and pick up an extra pick at the same time. 

Roos are a real wildcard here.

They could get draft assistance either through the pre-listing of Sanders and the massaging of McKays FA compensation if he leaves.

McKay leaving could leave them with either picks 2 and 3, 2 and 11, or 2 and 19. 

(Compensation being immediately after first pick, mid-first round, end of 1st round)

If they can pre-list Sanders and Callinan through draft assistance I can't see the AFL massaging any FA compo and will most likely net them an end of First round or 2nd round compensation pick. So pick 19 or pick 21.

They have a lot of capital to play with here including a valuable future 1st which will appeal.

[Davos 836]

It's also worth considering where the development opportunities for 4 high draft picks will come from.

As it stands, Luke Dunstan, James Harmes, Disco Turner, Adam Tomlinson and Bill Laurie are all struggling to get a gig in our senior side. Talented kids, who have shown enough but are yet to debut, include Blake Howes, AMW and Matt Jefferson.

Granted, our depth is likely to be depleted year on year as fringe players chase opportunies elsewhere, but given how hard it is to break into our senior side right now, I think we'd be better off taking one kid you know can contribute right away as opposed to 4 you hope may turn into something 3 years down the line. 

Having said that, I think we're in a great position regardless of whether we succesfully trade for Reid or not. We either walk away from the draft with the best prospect in at least 5 years, or we load up on young talent and give ourselves the opportunity to extend our window of contention. 

Go Dees!

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

1 hour ago, Colm said:

If North are given access to Sanders then this might make sense.  Can’t see them taking 2 mids as they are already well stocked. Moving back from 2 to 4/5 might still allow them to get the player they want and pick up an extra pick at the same time. 

I think the youth on their list is more than sufficient and it is not the area they are in need of assistance. They are stocked in the middle - Wardlaw and Sheezel will essentially compliment their existing mature midfield in a year or two's time and it will be a pretty good midfield at that. 

They need immediate replacements for McKay and Logue. The answer is not young players accumulated through draft picks. Whatever compensation or AFL assistance they receive should be used to attract mature talent. Whether that be salary cap concessions, 'must-trade' picks etc.

An early first rounder for McKay will be highway robbery but i think all the media discussion / speculation is all contrived to soften the industry response for something of that nature. I think the assistance will come as an end of first/start of second, which we should aim to take off them in exchange for Tommo. Lets not undersell Tommo, he probably makes most teams starting 18 and plays the lock down position very well. His age will be the most limiting factor.

 

[adonski 11,694]

27 minutes ago, Davos said:

It's also worth considering where the development opportunities for 4 high draft picks will come from.

From replacing a few of the B graders in our best 22

We lack balanced midfielders with skill / pace as well as a forward flanker who can push into the middle. Obviously a key forward too but fingers crossed that's Jefferson.

I'd hope a top 10 pick is capable of dislodging a Jordon, Sparrow, Neal-Bullen, Melksham from our 22 sooner rather than later.

[DeeSpencer 25,398]

Is he having the quietest year for any consensus number 1 pick in a long time?

Averaging 20 touches (but over 2 goals) at Coates league, one ok, one good VFL game, didn’t set them on fire in the champs.

The talent is absolutely undeniable but the output is a little off. Is it because he’s the lock at 1 so has been managing his way through the season? Took his time getting over a head knock.

Obviously not a huge deal, you’re drafting for AFL success not his junior results and it’s not like he’s been bad. But I’d kind of want to see him really rip a few games apart.

[Bystander 903]

22 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Straight up I'll admit I don't follow junior footy and don't claim expertise in this area.

However, I don't see the wisdom in trading three very good draft picks for one untested kid. ( Unless he has been shown to walk on water)

Or, better still, water to wine

[Bitter but optimistic 22,218]

24 minutes ago, Bystander said:

Or, better still, water to wine

Now that is a worthy skill !

If he could do that, I'd donate my lefty to the cause !! 

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

57 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Now that is a worthy skill !

If he could do that, I'd donate my lefty to the cause !! 

Not sure that offer would add much to the kitty

[Leopold Bloom 338]

8 hours ago, Nascent said:

Roos are a real wildcard here.

They could get draft assistance either through the pre-listing of Sanders and the massaging of McKays FA compensation if he leaves.

McKay leaving could leave them with either picks 2 and 3, 2 and 11, or 2 and 19. 

(Compensation being immediately after first pick, mid-first round, end of 1st round)

If they can pre-list Sanders and Callinan through draft assistance I can't see the AFL massaging any FA compo and will most likely net them an end of First round or 2nd round compensation pick. So pick 19 or pick 21.

They have a lot of capital to play with here including a valuable future 1st which will appeal.

North came close to beating a top 8 side in St Kilda and they nearly knocked off the Bombers when they played them. They’ve been struggling but not enough to be gifted a top five player in addition to their pick 2. If anyone needs special assistance this year based on performance, it’s the Eagles.

[leucopogon 1,519]

Surely we take the best midfielder available with our Jackson compo. We haven't drafted a 1st round mid since Oliver.

[layzie 33,729]

18 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

Petracca is 28 next year. Whoever we draft likely won't be having a big impact until Trac is in his 30s and winding down. This is about finding our next Trac, and we're presented with a rare opportunity at the top end of the draft that we likely won't have again for many years to come. 

Smashed it Trav. 

[ChaserJ 4,989]

15 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Is he having the quietest year for any consensus number 1 pick in a long time?

Averaging 20 touches (but over 2 goals) at Coates league, one ok, one good VFL game, didn’t set them on fire in the champs.

The talent is absolutely undeniable but the output is a little off. Is it because he’s the lock at 1 so has been managing his way through the season? Took his time getting over a head knock.

Obviously not a huge deal, you’re drafting for AFL success not his junior results and it’s not like he’s been bad. But I’d kind of want to see him really rip a few games apart.

He hasn’t spent significant time in midfield yet. He copped the head knock in the 2nd Academy game (after being best on in the first) was in cotton wool till the champs (and even during at times).

I’ll expect that Reid will get more midfield time in midfield in the run home. This will include a match up against Duursma & the Power at Shepley Oval. That should be a cracker.

[fr_ap 2,453]

20 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

Even in the footage there you can see how aggressive and explosive he is. He makes really good quick decisions with and without the ball. He's well developed physically already and was taking down mature VFL bodies at will with bumps and tackles! He might not be a huge accumulator, but he'll be a quality player with the assets he has. Very exciting prospect. Jeez you'd love him in red and blue...

By comparison, Duursma didn't show anywhere near as much in VFL and I have more concerns about how he'll go at AFL level. He is less physically developed, but there's some other question marks for mine around competitiveness, best position, how his body will develop etc. Duursma hasn't shown much as a midfield type and plays more like an undersized marking forward.

If we don't go after Reid, Mckercher is the best prospect but not sure he'll be available at our pick 4-5...

Agree with this entirely.

Duursma has some slightly concerning traits for a player projected to become a top end mid. Not sure he has (or can develop) the physicality required - he's not a natural 'contact' player to me. At his height, he'll always be a bit of a tweener and coaches will be tempted to play him forward which will hamper his development. Think Nik Cox - all the talent in the world, but a little soft, and between body types means hes never developed as a wing, ruck or forward properly. 

[Travy14 1,915]

Reid is a no brainier for me, the scouts on this kid are amazing.  he will be perfect to take over the #1 midfield role when Petracca and Viney move into their twilight.

it sets up the midfield for another 10-15 years, in saying that i wouldn't be giving up too much.  But we have 2 young key fwds developing, plenty of midfield youth, plenty of half back flankers and small fwds.  Only real issue for the future is key def, but they are never early in drafts anyway.

Duursma is a great back up if WC want to much, but id be going at Reid if i could, we don't desperately need next years first round pick.

not to mention id say we will have picks coming in for Tomlinson, Harmes and Possibly JJ if a trade gets done.  all be it these would all be 3rd rounders and later

[durango 2,001]

I would give 3 first (Freo's 1st MFC first 2023 and 2024 might throw in MFC 2nd 2023) for Reid if West Coast give the MFC their 1st for 2024.

Edited July 25, 2023 by durango

[Nascent 9,063]

13 hours ago, Leopold Bloom said:

North came close to beating a top 8 side in St Kilda and they nearly knocked off the Bombers when they played them. They’ve been struggling but not enough to be gifted a top five player in addition to their pick 2. If anyone needs special assistance this year based on performance, it’s the Eagles.

I'm not advocating for extra assistance to North but nearly beating 2 very average teams isn't a convincing counter-argument for those that are.

Eagles won a flag only 5 years ago. No chance they receive draft assistance.

[Nascent 9,063]

4 minutes ago, durango said:

I would give 3 first (Freo's 1st MFC first 2023 and 2024 might throw in MFC 2nd 2023) for Reid if West Coast give the MFC their 1st for 2024.

Change it to West Coast giving back their future 2nd and it might be more reasonable.

[ChaserJ 4,989]

8 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Change it to West Coast giving back their future 2nd and it might be more reasonable.

Yep. Our natural first rounder could end up drifting past pick 20 by the time academy and father son picks are factored in. You’d think our future first could be similarly placed (2 of next years projected top 5 are f/s tied to Adelaide & Brisbane).

[DeeSpencer 25,398]

3 hours ago, fr_ap said:

Agree with this entirely.

Duursma has some slightly concerning traits for a player projected to become a top end mid. Not sure he has (or can develop) the physicality required - he's not a natural 'contact' player to me. At his height, he'll always be a bit of a tweener and coaches will be tempted to play him forward which will hamper his development. Think Nik Cox - all the talent in the world, but a little soft, and between body types means hes never developed as a wing, ruck or forward properly. 

Duursma seems strong in the air, took a ripping pack mark on the weekend. But there’s not a lot of contested ball on the deck.

I’m trying to think of tall skinny kids who have been drafted high and gone on to success recently. Fyfe’s the ultimate example but that’s unrealistic. Ollie Henry took a couple of years to get up to speed but he’s been on the Geelong diet.

If he didn’t settle well at half forward or on a wing I’d be tempted to have Duursma play back flank like we are doing with Howes. Will Day was able to get experience at half back before being released on ball.

[Mach5 4,767]

Will Hoskin-Elliot