The Run Home

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

8 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

But who wants to limp into finals losing to all of Richmond, Carlton and Sydney?

None of those teams play the exclusive corridor game so I expect our gameplan to dominate.

Hawthorn should be another good test of our ability to counter the corridor style. North in Tasmania... I have no idea

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

17 hours ago, BDA said:

Tiges, Carlton and Swans games looking more difficult than they did 2 weeks ago. We'll do well to win all our remaining games.

All on their day will trouble us and we can't realistically be "on" every week.
I think Nank being out for the Tigers is a big plus and potentially McKay, Silvagni and Walsh will help significantly against the blues.  We should be able to beat them anyway but a few % off and any of these teams can make you look second rate.

I think the Sydney game (particularly if they have finals on the line or if it's Buddy's last game) will be tough.  Sydney and Longmire's coaching seems to have the edge on us in recent times.  I know we beat them convincingly earlier this year, but we piled on the goals late in the last.  Late in the third they had us in all sorts (reminded me of many games at the back end of last year) - but on this occasion a few things went our way and we ran away with it.

[titan_uranus 25,007]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Top 4's looking good.

We can actually sneak into the top 4 by only beating North and Hawthorn if all of the following very possible events occur:

1) Collingwood beat Carlton

2) Collingwood beat Geelong

3) Dogs or Carlton or Port beat GWS which are all away games.

4) Brisbane or Richmond or Geelong beat St Kilda

5) Port or Dogs beat Richmond

6) Geelong beat Dogs in Geelong

But who wants to limp into finals losing to all of Richmond, Carlton and Sydney?

Beating Richmond next week will almost seal the deal.

Unfortunately Brisbane are looking good for top 2 if they can won one more than Port. They have a good run home aside from Collingwood at Marvel.

To summarise this - we will make top 4 even if we only go 2-3 from here, provided that the Dogs, St Kilda, GWS, Carlton, Geelong and Richmond all lose at least once and the first three don't make up the 18%-odd on us.

By going 3-2 we eliminate Carlton, Geelong and Richmond and could only fall out if the Dogs, St Kilda or GWS go 5-0 and then make that 18% gap on us.

By going 4-1 we cannot miss top 4. 

For climbing up the ladder, we need to out-do Port or Brisbane by 2 games (we have the percentage over Port but not Brisbane). I don't think Brisbane will lose any more than 1 more game (Collingwood at Marvel) which rules that out, and means we can probably only pass Port - they have the Showdown, Geelong in Geelong, GWS, Fremantle away and Richmond. If they drop the first two and we go 5-0, we can pass them. If we go 4-1 they'd have to drop a third and that seems unlikely.

So I think 4th is very much the likely landing spot for us.

[beelzebub 23,348]

Imo ...whatever 'managing'.... of players....or 'fiddling' of plan we carry out going towards Sept we might want to have it all osrted before the Swans game.    That for mine needs to be a Finals' practice effort.  They're going to come at us hard.; more than likley Buddy's swansong so they'll lift for it..  The games prior are a bit 'widget' like in a fashion...but we need to be up and ready for Sydney...thats a dress rehearsal.

[fr_ap 2,478]

1 hour ago, deelusions from afar said:

All on their day will trouble us and we can't realistically be "on" every week.
I think Nank being out for the Tigers is a big plus and potentially McKay, Silvagni and Walsh will help significantly against the blues.  We should be able to beat them anyway but a few % off and any of these teams can make you look second rate.

I think the Sydney game (particularly if they have finals on the line or if it's Buddy's last game) will be tough.  Sydney and Longmire's coaching seems to have the edge on us in recent times.  I know we beat them convincingly earlier this year, but we piled on the goals late in the last.  Late in the third they had us in all sorts (reminded me of many games at the back end of last year) - but on this occasion a few things went our way and we ran away with it.

Real shame we play the last game at the SCG. 

Hard to win there, very different game profile to the MCG and has the potential to kill a little MCG momentum (if we even have it at that point!)

[Kent 2,909]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Top 4's looking good.

We can actually sneak into the top 4 by only beating North and Hawthorn if all of the following very possible events occur:

1) Collingwood beat Carlton

2) Collingwood beat Geelong

3) Dogs or Carlton or Port beat GWS which are all away games.

4) Brisbane or Richmond or Geelong beat St Kilda

5) Port or Dogs beat Richmond

6) Geelong beat Dogs in Geelong

But who wants to limp into finals losing to all of Richmond, Carlton and Sydney?

Beating Richmond next week will almost seal the deal.

Unfortunately Brisbane are looking good for top 2 if they can won one more than Port. They have a good run home aside from Collingwood at Marvel.

Dont want to sneak in want to storm in with full momentum

 

 

 

 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Who do you want to play in the QF?

1. Collingwood at MCG (Not sure on how ticketing works here but Collingwood most likely will outnumber MFC fans 70/30 or thereabouts). Probably the most likely outcome and they would not fear us.

2. Brisbane at Gabba: I don't think they have lost at the Gabba this year - probably the hardest team to beat atm and at the Gabba becomes a huge mountain to climb.

3. Port at AO: Winnable. i think we'd take a lot of energy into this encounter.

A very unlikely scenario would be Lions / Port at MCG: , but we'd definitely have the upper hand, but a lot of to go right for us to get spot 2 on the ladder. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Gawndy the Great

[Kick_It_To_Pickett 3,293]

8 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Who do you want to play in the QF?

1. Collingwood at MCG (Not sure on how ticketing works here but Collingwood most likely will outnumber MFC fans 70/30 or thereabouts). Probably the most likely outcome and they would not fear us.

2. Brisbane at Gabba: I don't think they have lost at the Gabba this year - probably the hardest team to beat atm and at the Gabba becomes a huge mountain to climb.

3. Port at Gabba: Winnable. i think we'd take a lot of energy into this encounter.

4. Lions / Port at MCG: A very unlikely scenario, but we'd definitely have the upper hand. 

I'll take Port at the Gabba, because I have no idea how it happens 

[binman 42,899]

26 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Imo ...whatever 'managing'.... of players....or 'fiddling' of plan we carry out going towards Sept we might want to have it all osrted before the Swans game.    That for mine needs to be a Finals' practice effort.  They're going to come at us hard.; more than likley Buddy's swansong so they'll lift for it..  The games prior are a bit 'widget' like in a fashion...but we need to be up and ready for Sydney...thats a dress rehearsal.

100% agree we are still experimenting with our line up and method and managing players.

In fact i think this touches on perhaps the two biggest changes to how we have gone about things this season - way more experimentation (positional, personnel, fitness program, prep for games eg staying in Geelong - and most of all method) and taking a squad metaility (and the related managing of players and dropping them to Casey - being dropped is not the death knell to a player's chances of returning to the ones it was in 2021 or 2022).

But I actually think we need to have our best 23, and the method we want to run with in the finals locked in by the blues game, so we have three games to get it all working how we want it to (i was thinking even the previous week, but that's against the roos and it's in Tassie, so it will be strange game and not really one conducive to practicing the systems and method we want to use in the finals).

I don't think one game is enough to bed down systems and method and have the best 23 build synergy.

On the best 23, assuming the players are not injured, this is my best guess at Goody will run with come finals (as opposed to what i think should be the lineup):

FB 

Lever      May     McVee

HB

Rivers    Petty     Salem

Centre

Hunter   Oliver   Langdon

HFF

Neale-Bullen  Brown     Spargo

FF

Pickett      Fritsch    Chandler  

 FOLL

Gawn     Viney     Petracca

INT

Grundy  Bowey   Sparrow  Brayshaw

SUB

Smith

The obvious player missing out in that team is JVR.

It would be a big call, but atm, for all the excitement he brings, he is not impacting games enough and he's still a fair way off being able to hold down a key tall forward role in the heat of, say, a prelim final.

Which by the way is perfectly fine - he has only just turned 20 and he is at least 3 or 4 seasons away from being the finished product.  

If Brown isn't where he needs to be come finals in terms of fitness, strength etc then JVR comes in.

[old dee 23,787]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

To summarise this - we will make top 4 even if we only go 2-3 from here, provided that the Dogs, St Kilda, GWS, Carlton, Geelong and Richmond all lose at least once and the first three don't make up the 18%-odd on us.

By going 3-2 we eliminate Carlton, Geelong and Richmond and could only fall out if the Dogs, St Kilda or GWS go 5-0 and then make that 18% gap on us.

By going 4-1 we cannot miss top 4. 

For climbing up the ladder, we need to out-do Port or Brisbane by 2 games (we have the percentage over Port but not Brisbane). I don't think Brisbane will lose any more than 1 more game (Collingwood at Marvel) which rules that out, and means we can probably only pass Port - they have the Showdown, Geelong in Geelong, GWS, Fremantle away and Richmond. If they drop the first two and we go 5-0, we can pass them. If we go 4-1 they'd have to drop a third and that seems unlikely.

So I think 4th is very much the likely landing spot for us.

I agree tu. The lions would need to have a poor last 5 game run to not finish 3rd. Even when they lose they seldom lose 2 in a row. I think we are very likely to win 4 and finish 4th. Right now our form does not suggest GF to me. But if Oliver and Fritz were to come back in good form then who knows. 

[old55 23,548]

I rate Adelaide but it's going to be tough for them to make the 8 now after losing Murray to an ACL when Doedee is also out for the season, both Rachele and Rankine out this week with Rankine multiple weeks, and no guarantee Laird will be back.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

To summarise this - we will make top 4 even if we only go 2-3 from here, provided that the Dogs, St Kilda, GWS, Carlton, Geelong and Richmond all lose at least once and the first three don't make up the 18%-odd on us.

By going 3-2 we eliminate Carlton, Geelong and Richmond and could only fall out if the Dogs, St Kilda or GWS go 5-0 and then make that 18% gap on us.

By going 4-1 we cannot miss top 4. 

For climbing up the ladder, we need to out-do Port or Brisbane by 2 games (we have the percentage over Port but not Brisbane). I don't think Brisbane will lose any more than 1 more game (Collingwood at Marvel) which rules that out, and means we can probably only pass Port - they have the Showdown, Geelong in Geelong, GWS, Fremantle away and Richmond. If they drop the first two and we go 5-0, we can pass them. If we go 4-1 they'd have to drop a third and that seems unlikely.

So I think 4th is very much the likely landing spot for us.

It's possible that we could make up the percentage on Brisbane, which equates to gaining on the points for & against differential of about 90 points, given we are yet to play North & Hawthorn, which would mean we  only need one more win than Brisbane but I agree it's unlikely we'll win 2 more games than them with the run home. More ikely I think to make up the 2 game difference on Port. That wouldn't be a good result probably given we'd be playing Brisbane at the Gabba in a Qualifying. I still think the most likely outcome is the Top 4 in the current order.

Fox Footy's views on the run home:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-19-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/c24b502926fb69034caba3e423f8afb5

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

From Reddit user aflglicko (10,000 simulations)

Us playing Collingwood looks likely but also us playing at the MCG does too

 

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by david_neitz_is_my_dad

[DubDee 25,846]

I wonder if the SC will consider managing senior players next week in Tassie against North.

Obviously has risks but we should look at Gawn (replace with Grundy), May, Lever, Viney, Trac and see if one or two of them needs to be managed so they are firing come finals.  We have the pre finals bye but playing through injuries or niggles can be riskier than resting players as seen last year

[Watson11 2,240]

22 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

From Reddit user aflglicko (10,000 simulations)

Us playing Collingwood looks likely but also us playing at the MCG does too

 

 

Is he a Collingwood supporter? He doesn’t seem to be aware that GMBH Stadium exists and that Geelong are likely to play there if they finish 5th.

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

I wonder if the SC will consider managing senior players next week in Tassie against North.

Obviously has risks but we should look at Gawn (replace with Grundy), May, Lever, Viney, Trac and see if one or two of them needs to be managed so they are firing come finals.  We have the pre finals bye but playing through injuries or niggles can be riskier than resting players as seen last year

If we win this weekend by a decent margin.. say 24 points.. thus protecting our percentage I can see room for rotations.

Howe being injured has removed one player from the rotation stakes but I imagine that Laurie and Dunstan would be in the mix.

At VFL level there are not exactly a surplus of KPP's available for a rotation

[rpfc 28,384]

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

Is he a Collingwood supporter? He doesn’t seem to be aware that GMBH Stadium exists and that Geelong are likely to play there if they finish 5th.

Not yet, doesn’t hold enough unfinished 

[Demonstone 22,487]

20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

If we win this weekend by a decent margin.. say 24 points.. thus protecting our percentage I can see room for rotations.

Percentage won't change much at all at this stage of the season unless the margin is MASSIVE either way.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

24 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

Percentage won't change much at all at this stage of the season unless the margin is MASSIVE either way.

Yes... and to give perspective

We are on a percentage of 123.7%

The Bulldogs and St Kilda who are two games behind us AND percentage are on 104.7% and 102.2% respectively

Geelong who are a further half game behind are on 121%.

So, we are effectively 19% ahead of the Bulldogs.

We have scored 1626 points and conceded 1315 points , and if I recall how percentage works, its is points scored divided by points conceded*100.

For that 19% to be made up (or our percentage reduced) to 104.7 - is 230 points scored differential ON TOP of the score that we put on over the next 5 weeks. We're looking at 5 losses of 45 points a week.

Let's of course assume that we meet at the half way mark between the two percentages as The Dogs and Saints would be on a winning trajectory. The Dogs/Saints need to gain 115 points scored in wins or 25 points a match, whilst we would need to concede that in losses to meet them circa 114%

I'm not particularly worried that it is achievable, with who we have to play, and whom they have to play.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[Jaded No More 68,905]

3 hours ago, DubDee said:

I wonder if the SC will consider managing senior players next week in Tassie against North.

Obviously has risks but we should look at Gawn (replace with Grundy), May, Lever, Viney, Trac and see if one or two of them needs to be managed so they are firing come finals.  We have the pre finals bye but playing through injuries or niggles can be riskier than resting players as seen last year

I think Gawn is on track to play his 200th vs Hawks at home in round 23, so I don’t think they’ll rest him. Not sure he wants to share his milestone with a Buddy wankfest.

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

You can win but your percentage goes down as it did last week.

It's not just margins but relative scores. Numerator/denominator.... both move

A 25 point win of say 100 to 75 sees our percentage remain relatively unchanged.

Agree that it's largely academic but in the context of resting players four games out of season's end it's a factor

Edited July 28, 2023 by Diamond_Jim

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Geelong are likely to play there if they finish 5th.

Nah they aint

[Demon17 5,188]

3 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Is he a Collingwood supporter? He doesn’t seem to be aware that GMBH Stadium exists and that Geelong are likely to play there if they finish 5th.

Only against freo sun's etc as in past years. Cats will play Vic teams in Melbourne.  Even when stand is finished it will be 40k capacity. Too small for a 70k crowd

[rpfc 28,384]

4 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I think Gawn is on track to play his 200th vs Hawks at home in round 23, so I don’t think they’ll rest him. Not sure he wants to share his milestone with a Buddy wankfest.

I am so glad they are scheduling those Buddy Wankfests now because I happened across one once and my lord, I enjoyed parts of it but my poor Granny, she struggled with all of it.

However people live their lives and all that.

[Dee-monic 620]

Carlton's unexpected but impressive demolition of the Pies has kept them in the top-four equation, especially if we lose to them. I don't think we should be counting any chickens yet by resting several players in what is a medium-difficulty run home. And with Grundy seemingly  on the outer for the time being, someone else will have to drop out anyway when (if?) OIiver comes back before finals.