The Run Home

[layzie 32,746]

22 minutes ago, binman said:

I agree.

Frittata is far better hot than cold

Got himmmmmmmm! 

[layzie 32,746]

19 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

Yep, literally one of the best intercept defenders of all time makes bad decisions. And the captain of our defence - arguably the best defence of all time in 2021 - should keep his mouth shut. Jesus wept.

Well you know what they say: Opinions are like onions, everyone has one and many layers of...... 

You get the picture, sort of.

[Jaded No More 67,609]

@binman I need a 7000 word essay to tell people why they need to calm down please

 

@Binmans PA if I don’t hear from him soon, expect a follow up email from my team 

[Demonsone 1,944]

Hate saying this but the Dees of old feeling script is losing our last 2 games & dropping out g the top 4 and losing 1st final… 

[spirit of norm smith 15,072]

Tough games now. Heard the phrase “Every game is like a final “.  If we want second place, we have to win both these games.  

Hawks are up and about. Best the pies.  Beat the dogs. Good young list coming together with some confidence.  We should beat them but don’t underestimate this one. 
 

Sydney in Sydney.  Round 23. Buddy’s farewell. Swans are back in form , in the mix and in top 8 now.  

[layzie 32,746]

As it stands right now if Port and us both win out then we finish 3rd and head over there. 

Very frustrating. Deathride thread in full flight next week, can they do us a solid? 

[In Harmes Way 7,699]

We should welcome the fact that we've got tough opponents going into finals. We'll be better off overall as a result.

That said, I'd rather not be playing at the SCG.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Heading to Adelaide is much better than going to Brisbane

[dl4e 5,843]

All I know is that port will win their last 2. Not sure about brissy. I don't think the filth will be tuned up for the brissy game as they have 1st spot sown up. Also it is at marvel. 4th or 5th for us.  If it is 5th then I will be on the hard stuff.

Lets go out and beat Hawthorn. We can then relax.

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,423]

I still like our chances for top 2. I think we can (and should - although a desperate Sydney in the final round over there will be a dicey prospect) win both, and reckon Freo is an OK chance against Port this week. 

More importantly, I think our form/fitness coming into finals is pretty good. Certainly better than last year.

I posted elsewhere, looking at the losses we've had - we've lost by a total of 70 points across 7 games (10 per game!) - which if you remove the Bombers game (27pts - which I never want to talk about again - we were horrid and they played their best game of the year) - it's 43 points across 6 games - basically a goal. That's fantastic. I think we dropped a few that we should have won, such as GWS (ugh), but largely it has been teams who have played out of their skins to beat us, and even then, only by a goal! (i.e. the Blues - where you can argue we were failed by ARC, Port - and in particular Butters who'll poll 1000 points for that game, the Lions up there - which we nearly stole), the Bombers and to a lesser extent the Cats who overran us in the last. The competition is VERY close. But I don't think we had hit our straps in those losses yet - and that's without a conventional/real forward line. Just a cobbled together mishmash of legends chipping in. 

(Imagine a fully firing Roo and maybe another KPF) - Oooof

BTW, if you want to compare cumulative losses for the top 5 - Pies (86/4 = 21.5), Lions (152/6 = 25.3), Port (213/6 = 35.5) and the Blues 212/8 = 26.5) - we are FAR AND AWAY the more competitive team. It takes a hell of a lot to beat us, and frankly most of the time we beat ourselves! 

We have a lot more experience than others (such as the Blues), and will not let those near close ones get away in the run home, or in the finals! 

Sorry, bit of waffle - TL;DR - I think we're travelling fairly well coming into the final 2 rounds/finals - although there is certainly room for improvement/opportunity (another forward, guys like Salem/Langdon finding form, Clarry firing, Fritter to return). 

I'm looking forward to finals! (more than last year, where it was clear we were hobbling to the end). 

[binman 41,923]

3 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Heading to Adelaide is much better than going to Brisbane

True dat.

[Gawndy the Great 9,008]

4 hours ago, layzie said:

As it stands right now if Port and us both win out then we finish 3rd and head over there. 

Very frustrating. Deathride thread in full flight next week, can they do us a solid? 

I expect Pies to win on Friday night and keep our chances of 2nd spot alive. I have a feeling that Freo will beat Port as well. 

Amazingly #3 is more statistically likely to a win a GF that #4. Although i dont think we have really had this much of an even top 4 in the time that those stats were taken. 

[Wodjathefirst 2,625]

2 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I expect Pies to win on Friday night and keep our chances of 2nd spot alive. I have a feeling that Freo will beat Port as well. 

Amazingly #3 is more statistically likely to a win a GF that #4. Although i dont think we have really had this much of an even top 4 in the time that those stats were taken. 

Darn lies and statistics…. I don’t want us finishing 3rd.  
2nd or 4th will suit me fine

[brendan 3,430]

if we win this week and Brisbane and port also win would we then be content with 4th as that’s as low as we can go and rest some players v swans 

[leave it to deever 17,445]

No way Carlton will win a flag.

Even if they go in with ten on trot.

Finals are a whole new game and boy will the pressure then be on them instead.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,320]

2 hours ago, brendan said:

if we win this week and Brisbane and port also win would we then be content with 4th as that’s as low as we can go and rest some players v swans 

Agreed. There might be some mystery injuries and illnesses into the Sydney game if that scenario arises.

I think it will be the least upset I'll ever be after a loss (aside from the Jordon McMuffin shenanigans in 2009) if it means we finish 4th and play week 1 at the MCG where we are 10-2 for the season as opposed to beating Sydney and copping an interstate trip at prospective venues we have not played well at this year.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,320]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

No way Carlton will win a flag.

Even if they go in with ten on trot.

Finals are a whole new game and boy will the pressure then be on them instead.

Assume they finish 5th, they'll still have to win a semi or prelim in Brisbane or Adelaide. Venues they've been utterly atrocious at over the last few years, including this year.

At the moment they're playing a finals brand of footy, but they'll have massive obstacles to get over, past week 1.

[ANG13 1,973]

19 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

@binman I need a 7000 word essay to tell people why they need to calm down please

 

@Binmans PA if I don’t hear from him soon, expect a follow up email from my team 

Just get the AI app Binman uses. 

[Sir Why You Little 36,587]

20 hours ago, Kozzie4PM said:

Someone the other day said Lever often makes bad decisions and should stop yelling so much and concentrate on his own game. And last night someone said our players don't work for each other. 

Fair dinkum gobsmacked how some manage to tie their shoes in the morning. 

Yes. It was during the Match. Someone bagged out Lever, I couldn’t believe it. We had just withstood the First Quarter barrage, Lever had been a Rock!

[rpfc 28,045]

21 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

@binman I need a 7000 word essay to tell people why they need to calm down please

 

@Binmans PA if I don’t hear from him soon, expect a follow up email from my team 

@Jaded No More Hey Boss, I have sent @Binmans PA the follow up email.

If it’s in the trash file - it’s from [email protected] 

Cheers

[At the break of Gawn 4,406]

5 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

No way Carlton will win a flag.

Even if they go in with ten on trot.

Finals are a whole new game and boy will the pressure then be on them instead.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if bringing in McKay this week stuffs their flow up and they lose to GC. Also, the GC are a contest and defence side and very hard up there. If Saints and Dogs win on Saturday and the Blues lose, it’ll come down to the last game for Carlton. They can still miss the 8.

[titan_uranus 24,559]

2 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if bringing in McKay this week stuffs their flow up and they lose to GC. Also, the GC are a contest and defence side and very hard up there. If Saints and Dogs win on Saturday and the Blues lose, it’ll come down to the last game for Carlton. They can still miss the 8.

It's still very unlikely.

Only St Kilda and Sydney can pass Carlton with one win (and even then, Sydney has to make up 4.7%). Everyone else has to win out to pass them. But the Dogs play Geelong in the final round, and GWS and Essendon (two sides who can do it) play each other this round, eliminating one of them this week.

So for Carlton to miss, GWS has to beat Essendon this week (unless you think Essendon will beat Collingwood in Round 24), and Sydney has to beat Adelaide (unless you are keen for them to beat us). Then, either Geelong wins out and St Kilda beats Brisbane in Brisbane, or Geelong loses both games and the Dogs beat West Coast. 

Of course, Carlton would have to lose both games too. Which I just do not see happening. I think it's far more likely GC have packed it in for the year and Carlton cruise to a comfortable 4-6 goal win.

Edited August 14, 2023 by titan_uranus

[Choof 13]

On 8/14/2023 at 8:42 PM, At the break of Gawn said:

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if bringing in McKay this week stuffs their flow up and they lose to GC. Also, the GC are a contest and defence side and very hard up there. If Saints and Dogs win on Saturday and the Blues lose, it’ll come down to the last game for Carlton. They can still miss the 8.

That would give me a stiffy if they didn't make it

[Great Northern Summer 701]

On 8/14/2023 at 6:04 AM, binman said:

True dat.

Not necessarily.

Brisbane has an incredible record at the Gabba over the last 5 or so years. However, I think you’ll find over that period they’ve almost been unbeaten in the first half to two-thirds of the season, and most of their few losses have come at the end of the season.

My theory behind this is the weather/ground conditions. For that first half to two-thirds of the season, the ground is very dewy and the ball can be like a cake of soap. I saw it first-hand at the ground in Round 2. We continuously fumbled whilst they were clean, which was the difference between the teams (before lights went out anyway). Because they play and train regularly in those conditions, they’re far more adapted. It’s also a reason why the GC tend to do alright at home at the start of most seasons before fading away.

The condition of the Gabba now, given the lack of humidity and dry heat over winter in South-East QLD, means the Gabba is an easier ground to play at for Vic clubs, more similar to their home conditions. This is why the Lions finals record at the Gabba isn’t great and why they lose games later in the year there generally (i.e. like to us last year).

I wouldn’t be any less confident playing Brisbane in Brisbane in September than Port in Adelaide.

[Roost it far 7,362]

12 minutes ago, Glorious Day said:

Not necessarily.

Brisbane has an incredible record at the Gabba over the last 5 or so years. However, I think you’ll find over that period they’ve almost been unbeaten in the first half to two-thirds of the season, and most of their few losses have come at the end of the season.

My theory behind this is the weather/ground conditions. For that first half to two-thirds of the season, the ground is very dewy and the ball can be like a cake of soap. I saw it first-hand at the ground in Round 2. We continuously fumbled whilst they were clean, which was the difference between the teams (before lights went out anyway). Because they play and train regularly in those conditions, they’re far more adapted. It’s also a reason why the GC tend to do alright at home at the start of most seasons before fading away.

The condition of the Gabba now, given the lack of humidity and dry heat over winter in South-East QLD, means the Gabba is an easier ground to play at for Vic clubs, more similar to their home conditions. This is why the Lions finals record at the Gabba isn’t great and why they lose games later in the year there generally (i.e. like to us last year).

I wouldn’t be any less confident playing Brisbane in Brisbane in September than Port in Adelaide.

What about at night, how’s the moisture then?