The Run Home

[Gawndy the Great 8,041]

I thought the run home is worth discussing given that we are close to midway through the year. 12 wins gets you into finals and 16 into the top 4. There is an extra game this year so it’ll be interesting whether this effects the required wins to make it into the 8/4.  We are are 7-4 meaning there is a bit of work to do. Where do our wins come from. My  views below based on current form gets us to 14-9 which ends up being 6-7 territory. There is probably a few more wins in there but I have not the confidence to call em right now.

Geelong are gettable , Adelaide and Lions on our home deck we’d have to have real hot shot… but that is assuming we get our ducks in order. We get Petty and Oliver back after the bye so no excuses.

Melbourne v Carlton - W

Melbourne v Collingwood - L

Geelong Cats v Melbourne - L

Melbourne v GWS Giants - W

St Kilda vs Melbourne - L

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions - L

Melbourne v Adelaide Crows - L

Richmond v Melbourne - W

North Melbourne v Melbourne - W

Carlton v Melbourne - W

Melbourne v Hawthorn - W

Sydney Swans v Melbourne - W

[beelzebub 22,728]

Sadly I wouldn't put a dime on any of those games. 

They're all going to have to ground out wins ( if indeed ) 

On percentages... probably agree..6-7 wins.

Which ones  who the f k.. 🤷🤷🤷🤷

Friday will be very interesting 

Go Dees

[BDA 20,895]

1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I thought the run home is worth discussing given that we are close to midway through the year. 12 wins gets you into finals and 16 into the top 4. There is an extra game this year so it’ll be interesting whether this effects the required wins to make it into the 8/4.  We are are 7-4 meaning there is a bit of work to do. Where do our wins come from. My  views below based on current form gets us to 14-9 which ends up being 6-7 territory. There is probably a few more wins in there but I have not the confidence to call em right now.

Geelong are gettable , Adelaide and Lions on our home deck we’d have to have real hot shot… but that is assuming we get our ducks in order. We get Petty and Oliver back after the bye so no excuses.

Melbourne v Carlton - W

Melbourne v Collingwood - L

Geelong Cats v Melbourne - L

Melbourne v GWS Giants - W

St Kilda vs Melbourne - L

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions - L

Melbourne v Adelaide Crows - L

Richmond v Melbourne - W

North Melbourne v Melbourne - W

Carlton v Melbourne - W

Melbourne v Hawthorn - W

Sydney Swans v Melbourne - W

I agree with your wins here. Perhaps Sydney rd23 depending on whether they need to win could go against us.

I think we're a real chance to beat the cats down at mordor. They're in bad shape and their home ground win streak was broken by GWS on the weekend

We'll beat the Saints and Crows as well. Crows away very patchy

I reckon we'll fish with 16 wins which should get us top 4. 14 wins worst case scenario which means we're just making up the numbers.

[deanox 9,006]

We do have a kind fixture in the last 12 games.

2 X top 4 sides (Collingwood, Brisbane @ the G)

2 X 5-9 sides (currently on 24 points and above) (that's St Kilda @ Marvel, Adelaide @ the G)

6 X 10-15 on the ladder (Carlton X2, Geelong at KP, GWS, Tigers, Swans away)

2 X bottom 3 (Hawthorn and Nth in Tas)

 

That's only 4 more games against teams placed 9th or higher, 5 including Geelong.

Our last 5 games are against teams who will be out of contention.

7/12 @ the G, 1 @ Marvel. Add in short travel to Sydney, Tas and Geelong, it's a much gentler back half of the season.

 

Even if we only win the 8 against sides 10-18, we finish the year with 15 wins with a good percentage. Which in an even year is possibly enough to sneak into 4th.

I also think games against Brisbane and Adelaide at the G and St Kilda,  are winnable meaning we could drop other games (ie Geelong in Geelong,) and still be in top 4 contention. 

 

Given how we ran out of steam last year, I really expect a lot of our focus of the the footy department this year will have been about peaking at the right time. So as long as we get to top 4, I think we'll be in a good position.

[poita 3,759]

I certainly wouldn't bank on 12 wins being enough for finals given the extra game. I reckon you'll definitely need 13 and possibly even 14 if some of the sides 11-16 fall away towards the end of the season. 

That said, we're just making up the numbers if we can't finish top 4, which probably requires 16 wins and a decent percentage. 

[roy11 3,159]

Was discussing with a friend after the game on the weekend, can see us losing a few more - but given the results all teams have had this season, where we'll land on the ladder is another question. Hopefully land in the top 4 but might be tight., 

On current form we'll lose to Collingwood but some of the other Ls from your tipping could go either way.

[dl4e 5,703]

We are not playing well. I think we may struggle to make the 8. See what happens this week against Carlton.

[Jibroni 4,391]

Lose to Carlton and missing the finals is not out of the question. Our ball movement is putrid ATM.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Jibroni

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,024]

This years flag is there for the taking for an experienced talented list, like ours.

Yet we’re still working out how not to get stuck in our back half and to deliver the ball inside fwd 50.

You can’t make this stuff up.

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[DubDee 22,007]

The big question is can we click as a unit and get some cohesion in our play?

At the moment we look a top 6-10 side but we are better than that.

 

From your list of wins, the Cats and Saints are definitely winnable.  Saints are showing their true colours now losing to two teams outside the 8 in a row. Swans away in the last round I'd mark as a loss.  they should have some talls back by then

[praha 10,575]

Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood are all absolutely primed for the flag. Good spread of young and experienced. Pies and Power are almost guaranteed top 4 imo. Lions have home ground advantage so Melbourne at most risk of falling out.

Port, Bulldogs the smokeys. Crows, Saints, Bombers, Dockers, Cats will all win more games and push for 4th-8th. 

15 wins normally nets you top 4, sometimes 16 wins is needed. Hazard a guess it'll be 16 minimim, 17 to be safe this season. Meaning we'll need to go 9-3 to end the season. Sounds like a tough ask but that's the reality of top 4.

For top 8, 13 wins will guarantee you. 

We *should* beat Carlton x2, Geelong, Hawthorn, North, Sydney, GWS, Richmond, Adelaide, St Kilda. That's your 10 wins.

At least one win against Collingwood and Brisbane would guarantee us top 2.

Any game we drop against the former group will need to be made up when we play the latter.

We have quite literally 10 games we're going to go in as favourites in. Missing top 4 from that position would be a disaster tbh.

[beelzebub 22,728]

1 minute ago, praha said:

Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood are all absolutely primed for the flag. Good spread of young and experienced. Pies and Power are almost guaranteed top 4 imo. Lions have home ground advantage so Melbourne at most risk of falling out.

Port, Bulldogs the smokeys. Crows, Saints, Bombers, Dockers, Cats will all win more games and push for 4th-8th. 

15 wins normally nets you top 4, sometimes 16 wins is needed. Hazard a guess it'll be 16 minimim, 17 to be safe this season. Meaning we'll need to go 9-3 to end the season. Sounds like a tough ask but that's the reality of top 4.

For top 8, 13 wins will guarantee you. 

We *should* beat Carlton x2, Geelong, Hawthorn, North, Sydney, GWS, Richmond, Adelaide, St Kilda. That's your 10 wins.

At least one win against Collingwood and Brisbane would guarantee us top 2.

Any game we drop against the former group will need to be made up when we play the latter.

We have quite literally 10 games we're going to go in as favourites in. Missing top 4 from that position would be a disaster tbh.

We were fav v Port   v Dockers

Went well.

Admire you're optimism.....don't share it. 

[Roost it far 6,470]

I just want to beat carlton.......

[dl4e 5,703]

In the last 2 weeks we have played about 15 minutes of decent footy. q3 against Port. The rest of the time we have been putrid. We lost to the dockers who are ordinary at best FFS. Against the dogs and swans we showed signs of being a good side well capable of a top 2 finish but apart from that NOT. There is something wrong at the MFC and I don't have a clue as to what. Can it be turned around, yes, but I doubt it will.

I am filthy after last Saturday.

[leave it to deever 16,588]

8 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I thought the run home is worth discussing given that we are close to midway through the year. 12 wins gets you into finals and 16 into the top 4. There is an extra game this year so it’ll be interesting whether this effects the required wins to make it into the 8/4.  We are are 7-4 meaning there is a bit of work to do. Where do our wins come from. My  views below based on current form gets us to 14-9 which ends up being 6-7 territory. There is probably a few more wins in there but I have not the confidence to call em right now.

Geelong are gettable , Adelaide and Lions on our home deck we’d have to have real hot shot… but that is assuming we get our ducks in order. We get Petty and Oliver back after the bye so no excuses.

Melbourne v Carlton - W

Melbourne v Collingwood - L

Geelong Cats v Melbourne - L

Melbourne v GWS Giants - W

St Kilda vs Melbourne - L

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions - L

Melbourne v Adelaide Crows - L

Richmond v Melbourne - W

North Melbourne v Melbourne - W

Carlton v Melbourne - W

Melbourne v Hawthorn - W

Sydney Swans v Melbourne - W

I think this is quite realistic.  Maybe we are good chance against St kilda. That's 15 wins if we roll them. Enough for a top 4 berth with our %. Lucky we have a good draw 2nd time play wise. 

I'd like to think we could beat the crows because although this analysis gives us a shot at top 4, it exposes us as really only competitive against non contenders.

Edited May 29, 2023 by leave it to deever

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,214]

We’re not as good as we thought we were, but we are nowhere near as bad as some here say we are.

I’d be hoping for at least nine more wins leading into finals.

I like Geelong’s recent statements and the same should apply to us: “We’re not playing the way we’d like to play right now; we just need to be right in time for the finals.’

[Engorged Onion 9,607]

What's with the words putrid and disgraceful when referencing the team.

It's as if you think they're coming up against the Manangatang 3rds... and not another professionally run football club, with similar resources and talent.

I'm a bit [censored] ing over the negative [censored] ers on here...

Edited May 29, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[Jaded No More 60,146]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

What's with the words putrid and disgraceful when referencing the team.

It's as if you think they're coming up against the Manangatang 3rds... and not another professionally run football club, with similar resources and talent.

I'm a bit [censored] ing over the negative [censored] ers on here...

Can I call the umpiring of games putrid tho?

[Engorged Onion 9,607]

Just now, Jaded No More said:

Can I call the umpiring of games putrid tho?

😍 - 10000%

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,166]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

What's with the words putrid and disgraceful when referencing the team.

It's as if you think they're coming up against the Manangatang 3rds... and not another professionally run football club, with similar resources and talent.

I'm a bit [censored] ing over the negative [censored] ers on here...

What am I missing here that these stats make no sense at all??

[Newport34 217]

We have more chance of beating Saints at Telstra Dome than the swans in Sydney. I think we can beat the crows also. 

At best, it’s probably 16 wins in fourth spot. QF v Pies. 

But stuff all that. Let’s just concentrate on Friday night v Blues. 

I hate Carlton!

 

[deanox 9,006]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

What's with the words putrid and disgraceful when referencing the team.

It's as if you think they're coming up against the Manangatang 3rds... and not another professionally run football club, with similar resources and talent.

I'm a bit [censored] ing over the negative [censored] ers on here...

 

42 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

What am I missing here that these stats make no sense at all??

This is the combined records of the teams that were in top spot, and 14th spot, before each round this year.

So after 11 rounds the top side has won 6 out of 10 times (obviously no one was in top spot before round 1) and the 14th side has won 7/10 times.

[chookrat 3,869]

10 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I thought the run home is worth discussing given that we are close to midway through the year. 12 wins gets you into finals and 16 into the top 4. There is an extra game this year so it’ll be interesting whether this effects the required wins to make it into the 8/4.  We are are 7-4 meaning there is a bit of work to do. Where do our wins come from. My  views below based on current form gets us to 14-9 which ends up being 6-7 territory. There is probably a few more wins in there but I have not the confidence to call em right now.

Geelong are gettable , Adelaide and Lions on our home deck we’d have to have real hot shot… but that is assuming we get our ducks in order. We get Petty and Oliver back after the bye so no excuses.

Melbourne v Carlton - W

Melbourne v Collingwood - L

Geelong Cats v Melbourne - L

Melbourne v GWS Giants - W

St Kilda vs Melbourne - L

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions - L

Melbourne v Adelaide Crows - L

Richmond v Melbourne - W

North Melbourne v Melbourne - W

Carlton v Melbourne - W

Melbourne v Hawthorn - W

Sydney Swans v Melbourne - W

Based on this list we lose to anyone likely to place in the top 8, which would mean we expect to be bundled out of finals in the first round. Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide look to be the matches that will shape our fortunes. I also don't think we can take any wins for granted, Carlton will start to find some for and press for finals, Geelong are crafty, GWS are no easy beats, Richmond have had some good games, North compete hard and Sydney have alot of key players out and will improve as they get them back.

I'm backing us to finish top 4 and work into some really solid form in the next month.

[Superunknown 3,656]

2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

What's with the words putrid and disgraceful when referencing the team.

It's as if you think they're coming up against the Manangatang 3rds... and not another professionally run football club, with similar resources and talent.

I'm a bit [censored] ing over the negative [censored] ers on here...

I played for Manang and resent that remark!

[Roost it far 6,470]

5 minutes ago, chookrat said:

Based on this list we lose to anyone likely to place in the top 8, which would mean we expect to be bundled out of finals in the first round. Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide look to be the matches that will shape our fortunes. I also don't think we can take any wins for granted, Carlton will start to find some for and press for finals, Geelong are crafty, GWS are no easy beats, Richmond have had some good games, North compete hard and Sydney have alot of key players out and will improve as they get them back.

I'm backing us to finish top 4 and work into some really solid form in the next month.

Love the sound of that