CHANGES: Rd 16 vs Adelaide

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,493]

9 hours ago, Jjrogan said:

Im not suggesting it was a fluke but ANB, Oliver and Petracca combined have kicked 14 goals 39 behinds this year with about 15 more shots that missed everything I think. 

That's pretty amazing to be that poor.   A random cannon shooting the football at goal would have converted more. 

Ok maybe i am suggesting it was a fluke

If you believe in the law of averages, then these three should be dead eye Richard's by finals time given that Trac and ANB bat at about 56% each over their career. Oliver is just under 50%

But yes, 9.21 for Trac and 3.12 for ANB is incomprehensibly bad.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Bring-Back-Powell

[layzie 33,299]

Just keep generating enough scoring chances and we'll get the goals. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,664]

17 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

Browns contract isn’t sizeable. It’s about par for what it should be for a bloke whose played as many games as he has, and definitely unders for a Coleman medallist.

I thought Ben looked great early. He was very mobile and giving the Lions defenders something to think about. At the ground I thought his energy was brilliant. It’s not his fault that our game style gives him difficult shots - in fact it’s part of the reason we got him and he’s in the team. 

I watched the replay and saw 3 separate players point down to teammates to indicate to them not to put the ball in the air after the first quarter. It’s a team sport, Ben definitely played his part on Thursday. 

I have wondered for some time whether any of the players who have had Covid have had any lingering symptoms. I'm not sure who had Covid and who just had to stay in isolation under the rules at the time. Thus far I've been spared from having Covid (unless I had it asymptomatically), but from talking to those who have, some have taken much longer to recover full energy levels than others. This could be an explanation for the form levels of some players, particularly those who have appeared more lethargic than others. Of course, this could affect players across the whole competition at different times. 

[Jaded No More 68,650]

Gawn aside, Thursday's team was the best we have fielded all year. Rolling into finals we will do our outmost to keep the side really settled with minimal changes, injuries aside of course. 

I can't see us doing anything radical now, other than obviously bringing Gawn back, and potentially making the call on Hunt vs Bowey and deciding on whether we keep Weideman in and drop Bedford or continue to pursue a small forwardline strategy once Gawn is back.

[Young Blood 2,361]

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If you believe in the law of averages, then these three should be dead eye Richard's by finals time given that Trac and ANB bat at about 56% each over their career. Oliver is just under 50%

But yes, 9.21 for Trac and 3.12 for ANB is incomprehensibly bad.

EEEK Yeah its a worry. Last season Nibbler was 15.11 and Trac was 29.19

Oliver while finishing is clearly an area of his game he needs to work on (one of very few things), I'm less worried about because he's less often in positions to score and his creativity and ability to win the first contest is so crucial. He's more important in this area. But the other two need to sharpen up. It's been noted on here by many Trac's high ball drop doesn't help. I understand he uses it for momentum when kicking from 50 but he's been way off lately. ANB just needs confidence with set shots and maybe less rushing with his snaps/on the run.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Young Blood

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

14 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

EEEK Yeah its a worry. Last season Nibbler was 15.11 and Trac was 29.19

Oliver while finishing is clearly an area of his game he needs to work on (one of very few things), I'm less worried about because he's less often in positions to score and his creativity and ability to win the first contest is so crucial. He's more important in this area. But the other two need to sharpen up. It's been noted on here by many Trac's high ball drop doesn't help. I understand he uses it for momentum when kicking from 50 but he's been way off lately. ANB just needs confidence with set shots and maybe less rushing with his snaps/on the run.

Christian is an awful set-shot. High ball drop and tries to kick it way too hard which leads to consistent miskicking. 

 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

4 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If you believe in the law of averages, then these three should be dead eye Richard's by finals time given that Trac and ANB bat at about 56% each over their career. Oliver is just under 50%

But yes, 9.21 for Trac and 3.12 for ANB is incomprehensibly bad.

The law of averges is actually a fallacy, but the law of large numbers isn't if you believe the current sample size is too small to be a reliable predictor for the future (although 14 rounds is a good  sample size). There is a tendency to revert to the mean so if we assume that 56%/50% is reliable then we should expect 9.21 & 3.12 to be improved upon, but there is no reason to expect Trac & ANB to suddenly become dead-eye [censored]. They never have been & their inaccuracy so far this year in no way logically means the opposite will happen for the rest of the year. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong 😄. 

[stynewillalwaysbeonthevine 84]

I don't know where to put this but thought was interesting to share.

Since R10 2020, we have lost 10 times.

8/10 of those losses are from only 4 teams: Freo, Dogs, Swans, Collingwood.

The outliers are the dodgy Adelaide game (R10, 2021) and a GWS game (R16, 2021) which are aberrations. 

It was interesting hearing on the couch how J Brown was saying Melbourne matches up really well against Brisbane for leg speed and spread around the contest. I feel like we have the Dogs metal post GF but need to look at alternative ways/matchups for Freo/Swans/Collingwood down the stretch. 

 

[jnrmac 19,931]

Adelaide beat us last year (ignoring the howler of an umpire's decision at the end) by holding on to the ball and chipping at targets

Seedsman  ran amok in both games last year but won't be playing due to concussion issues. That leaves Keays and Crouch as their two prolific ball winners.

If we bring pressure like we did against the Lions then Adelaide don't have a chance but let them run loose without pressure then they will feel confident.

Walker always seems to play well against us but I feel May has him covered. That leaves Fogerty who is hot and cold and Petty is likely to get him

Don't give em a sniff Dees and keep the pressure on.

[dazzledavey36 53,314]

54 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Adelaide beat us last year (ignoring the howler of an umpire's decision at the end) by holding on to the ball and chipping at targets

Seedsman  ran amok in both games last year but won't be playing due to concussion issues. That leaves Keays and Crouch as their two prolific ball winners.

If we bring pressure like we did against the Lions then Adelaide don't have a chance but let them run loose without pressure then they will feel confident.

Walker always seems to play well against us but I feel May has him covered. That leaves Fogerty who is hot and cold and Petty is likely to get him

Don't give em a sniff Dees and keep the pressure on.

Crouch was dropped to the SANFL over the weekend.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,493]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Adelaide beat us last year (ignoring the howler of an umpire's decision at the end) by holding on to the ball and chipping at targets

Seedsman  ran amok in both games last year but won't be playing due to concussion issues. That leaves Keays and Crouch as their two prolific ball winners.

If we bring pressure like we did against the Lions then Adelaide don't have a chance but let them run loose without pressure then they will feel confident.

Walker always seems to play well against us but I feel May has him covered. That leaves Fogerty who is hot and cold and Petty is likely to get him

Don't give em a sniff Dees and keep the pressure on.

Great point re Seedsman. He was so dominant in our MCG game last year.

Walker got May last time with 3 goals. It's very unusual for someone to kick multiple goals on May but Walker did and he also kicked the winning goal.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,493]

1 hour ago, stynewillalwaysbeonthevine said:

I don't know where to put this but thought was interesting to share.

Since R10 2020, we have lost 10 times.

8/10 of those losses are from only 4 teams: Freo, Dogs, Swans, Collingwood.

Sydney and Collingwood have caused Goodwin all sorts of problems since he began coaching.

We've lost 5 out of 6 against Sydney with our only win being a tight 10 point win over them last year.

We've been a debacle against Collingwood since 2017. We've lost 6 out of 8 games against them including missing the finals in round 23 2017 from the loss. We really need to put in a good showing against them in round 21 in the event we meet in finals.

[D4Life 2,412]

I would go no change this week.

Then Max in Weid out.

The other change that I would consider in the forward line is one of:

- Petty tried forward Tomlinson back 

- Van R forward (I think part of putting him in ruck might be helping him be ready for bash and crash of being forward in AFL team)

- Tomlinson forward

- Hunt forward

The other aspect of the team that’s interesting is with Rivers and Hunt both not in the team, if either make it back into the backline.
 

Hibberd was terrific on Cameron the other night and his proven ability to play on guys like Dusty and Dangerfield is a major benefit, if he maintains current form.

 

[Redleg 40,379]

34 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Great point re Seedsman. He was so dominant in our MCG game last year.

Walker got May last time with 3 goals. It's very unusual for someone to kick multiple goals on May but Walker did and he also kicked the winning goal.

The 3rd and most important goal, came from a 5 metre pass, after a blatant free to us, for an Adelaide player dropping the ball was ignored.
 

That of course was followed by the most blatant deliberate out of bounds, in the history of the game, by an Adelaide defender, was again ignored by a scared umpire, too afraid of the Adelaide crowd to do his job.  

[Pates 9,626]

10 minutes ago, D4Life said:

I would go no change this week.

Then Max in Weid out.

The other change that I would consider in the forward line is one of:

- Petty tried forward Tomlinson back 

- Van R forward (I think part of putting him in ruck might be helping him be ready for bash and crash of being forward in AFL team)

- Tomlinson forward

- Hunt forward

The other aspect of the team that’s interesting is with Rivers and Hunt both not in the team, if either make it back into the backline.
 

Hibberd was terrific on Cameron the other night and his proven ability to play on guys like Dusty and Dangerfield is a major benefit, if he maintains current form.

 

I really haven't had too much of a close look at our run home until now, boy our "easier" games are very few and far between. To be fair as well, I'm not saying experiment this week is a good idea, in fact I think the Crows have shown themselves more than capable of playing good footy, but if we are going to throw something new into the mix this week might be a week to trial it.

When Max comes back we will have to really consider what our forward set up is going to look like. If that means we keep going with the smaller look forward line with Jackson/Gawn rotating, great. But if we want to keep the structure that got us to the promised land last season than Weid is the best option we have.

I also think that we have to consider having utility players such as Tomlinson and Hunt as our subs as coverage. At least then is we get another injury to a defender we have that coverage, and likewise if a forward goes down then I would be looking at throwing Petty forward with the sub moving into defence. We also then have the extra small already out there that can play midfield minutes if needed.

[Thehardtackler 785]

I think our small forwards should cause chaos for Adelaide.

[monoccular 17,346]

8 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I have wondered for some time whether any of the players who have had Covid have had any lingering symptoms. I'm not sure who had Covid and who just had to stay in isolation under the rules at the time. Thus far I've been spared from having Covid (unless I had it asymptomatically), but from talking to those who have, some have taken much longer to recover full energy levels than others. This could be an explanation for the form levels of some players, particularly those who have appeared more lethargic than others. Of course, this could affect players across the whole competition at different times. 

I am glad someone else has also considered this.   I am not complaining at all but I am not so sure we have (for very good reasons) not been told everything about who had covid and how badly.  

[rpfc 28,079]

On 6/27/2022 at 6:48 PM, Lord Nev said:

How much is he on then exactly?

Reported $400k till 2024. Absolute bargain.

[rpfc 28,079]

BBB’s role with no other recognised talk forward becomes even more important, difficult, and unrewarding. He know has to shoulder most of the load being the out kick up the wing, which gets him out of the forward line and leading at the footy. If you ever ask yourself ‘Where’s BBB??’ - was there a long kick to a contest 5 seconds before? 

Jackson helps with this, and Gawn and Jackson will allow BBB to actually spend some time forward other than when there is a stoppage and we can reset everyone. Biased, because I am a forward, but he played on one of the best defenders in the game and drew him out and allowed us to have 38 scoring shots. This team is about roles and BBB was performing his role, something that someone has to do while TMac is out.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

13 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Reported $400k till 2024. Absolute bargain.

Reported where?

[Willmoy1947 3,981]

I'm thinking that the bigger topic of conversation might be just  as well served in a suitable replacement for tmac who played his role in a winning GF rather than a player who is warming to his task at the business end of the season or else.

[rpfc 28,079]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Reported where?

Papers.

His manager got laughed at for not signing $2.2m/3 year deal (although I think this may have more to do with Ben and how his family were treated in 2020). The number that ‘he left on the table’ was a $1m - so he is on around $400k.

[Viney Vidi Vici 145]

I know we won't throw a change like this, but I'd love to see Petty out of the goal square and BBB roaming up the ground. His contested marks are incredible. 

Otherwise, no changes needed. We finally got some dees magic back in the legs, far from a perfect game but the flair was there. back them in. 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

9 hours ago, rpfc said:

Papers.

His manager got laughed at for not signing $2.2m/3 year deal (although I think this may have more to do with Ben and how his family were treated in 2020). The number that ‘he left on the table’ was a $1m - so he is on around $400k.

Again, where?

I've had a pretty big search and found not one article that suggests the deal was 400k per year or that he gave up a million dollars, so keen to see the link you read it at.

And you are correct, Adam Ramanauskas turned down 3 years at 750k reportedly, so I would be pretty surprised to hear he then signed for nearly half of that with another club.

[layzie 33,299]

Just remember, too much magnet shifting could hurt our system and structure.