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Top 8 Now Fixed - according to history

Demon17
Demon17
in Melbourne Demons

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Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

Edited by Demon17
spelling mistakes

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    Port and Bulldogs sit outside the 8 by only 4 points (16).

    Sydney, Geelong and Richmond all on 20. Geelong and Richmond have an easy run home from memory.

    Sydney are a little bit interesting over the next few weeks.

    10. Carlton vs Sydney

    11. Sydney vs Richmond

    12. Melbourne vs Sydney

    13. Bye

    14. Port vs Sydney

    15. Sydney vs Saints

    16. Essendon vs Sydney

    17. Sydney vs Bulldogs

    18. Dockers vs Sydney

    19. Sydney vs Adelaide

    20. Sydney vs Giants

    21. North vs Sydney

    22. Sydney vs Collingwood

    23. Saints vs Saints

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    It is highly likely top 3 will be Demons, Dockers, Lions.  4th spot is up for grabs for one of Blues, Cats, Saints, Swans or Tigers to do a 'Bradbury'.

    The threat is the Tigers, having comfortably won every game since Dusty returned; admittedly those games were vs Eagles, Pies and Hawks.  If Tigers get on a roll they can roll any of the top 8 teams.  Hopefully they don't finish 4th and will have a harder finals run.

    For us, finish top 2 and win the first final and all our finals will be at the G.  Lose the first final and we will most likely play an 'Away' Prelim, if we make it.

    An interesting aspect is whether Dockers, Blues, and maybe the Saints suffer 'finals nerves'.  The further they go the more stressful it will become.

    Edited by Lucifers Hero

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    • Author
    16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    It is highly likely top 3 will be Demons, Dockers, Lions.  4th spot is up for grabs for one of Blues, Cats, Saints, Swans or Tigers to do a 'Bradbury'.

    The threat is the Tigers, having comfortably won every game since Dusty returned; admittedly those games were vs Eagles, Pies and Hawks.  If Tigers get on a roll they can roll any of the top 8 teams.  Hopefully they don't finish 4th and will have a harder finals run.

    For us, finish top 2 and win the first final and all our finals will be at the G.  Lose the first final and we will most likely play an 'Away' Prelim, if we make it.

    An interesting aspect is whether Dockers, Blues, and maybe the Saints suffer 'finals nerves'.  The further they go the more stressful it will become.

    Agreed with your Top 3 view.

    But I reckon the Tiges comments are based on when they were scary-good from 2017.  Understandable too.

    Dees, Lions and Freo have so much class now all 3 of us can take care of any team.  Tiges will give it a crack but we have the 'Hibberd'  solution for Dusty, and I'm sure Lions and Dockers do too.

    If the Cat's don't now see the slide is on, they never will.

    A random meeting with a mad cats supporter this week at Catland repeated other fans calls for the umpteenth time, Scott should finish up.

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    27 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    But I reckon the Tiges comments are based on when they were scary-good from 2017.  Understandable too.

    Nope, its based on how many of their 2020 GF team still there and with the exception of Riewoldt and Cotchin in good form.  Riewoldt can still turn in a high scoring game. 

    They have unreal finals experience and belief.  They know how to turn it on in the finals even if they haven't had the best H & A season.

    Not saying they will but even if they aren't top 4 they are the most likely to give the finals a good shake outside the top 3.  And on their day they can roll any of the top 3.

    Edited by Lucifers Hero

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    • Author
    43 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Nope, its based on how many of their 2020 GF team still there and with the exception of Riewoldt and Cotchin in good form.  Riewoldt can still turn in a high scoring game. 

    They have unreal finals experience and belief.  They know how to turn it on in the finals even if they haven't had the best H & A season.

    Not saying they will but even if they aren't top 4 they are the most likely to give the finals a good shake outside the top 3.  And on their day they can roll any of the top 3.

    Fair points and I reckon the tigers meetings against Top 4 rivals will be the most fascinating aspect of the run home.

    I much prefer them as a club to the Cats so hope they at least keep them in lower end of the 8

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    Reckon this year could be an anomaly. Dogs and port will come hard (they’re easily top 8 quality despite all the problems they’ve had) and I know we say it every year but the cats are vulnerable. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the year they fell out of the 8  (and I’ll be delighted if they do)

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    4 minutes ago, BDA said:

    Reckon this year could be an anomaly. Dogs and port will come hard (they’re easily top 8 quality despite all the problems they’ve had) and I know we say it every year but the cats are vulnerable. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the year they fell out of the 8  (and I’ll be delighted if they do)

    Dogs have a very hard run home (2 d half of the season). This stretch of matches is their easiest for the year, I don't see how they make finals.

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    2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

    Dogs have a very hard run home (2 d half of the season). This stretch of matches is their easiest for the year, I don't see how they make finals.

    I think they’re a chance if they bank wins through the next few weeks and build momentum. They have a lot of quality in their side. Having said all that I wouldn’t rate their chances better than 50/50 at best 

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    One lens...

    Screen Shot 2022-05-15 at 11.18.36.png

    Edited by Engorged Onion

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    I reject the premise of this thread.

    The Swans lost the first 6 one year and made it. 

    It looks like 12 wins will be needed this year. 

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    9 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

    One lens...

    A couple of other Lens.  Sorry, game time seems so far away and I'm impatient and bored.

    GhMJ1kc.jpg

    oUFypUl.jpg

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    I don’t rate Richmond. Dusty has been a tremendous player and is still good but he is not the unstoppable force he once was. Cotchin, Riewoldt, Grimes are past their best. Bolton is a great player at times bug not a reliable match winner. Then quite a lot of players who are good but not A grade. They may well make the 8 but won’t go far after that.

    Brisbane is the really interesting one. The old saying is, a good defence will always beat a good attack. When we play them, that will really be tested.

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    Football world order has changed. 
    1. Covid

    2. Some teams can kick 3 goals in 31 seconds - to turn a Grannie. 
    3. We play Eagles in Perth and betting must be close to being suspended. 

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    I have this nagging suspicion that one or two will still drop out and either Port, Dogs or GC could still make it. I’m hoping Richmond and Geelong drop out but that could be more a wish than grounded in fact. At the very least the 8 will still be up for grabs for a while yet. Teams like the Pies, GWS and even the bombers (although they were putrid last night, long may it continue) will take games off contenders. Close year. Let’s put a nice big gap on them all by round 15 and then sit back and watch the carnage. 

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    3 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

    i'm not sure that's even close to being correct

    off the top of my head, peptides lost 83 to hawks and then won 84 and 85 against the same team, then won in 86 vs carlton then lost to them in 87, and then won back to backs in 88 and 89

    meth coke lost in 91 then won in 92

    north lost 98 but won in 99

    meth coke also lost 05 and then won in 06 - both against swans

    cats lost 08 and then won 09

    most recently, hawks lost the 2012 gf and then win the next three in a row

     

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    4 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

    How can you forget the infamous 1987 and 1988 seasons

    Hawthorn

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    2 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

    Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

    And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

    My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

    Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

    In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

    Can I see your workings on these two points? 

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    It’s not fixed and there are two teams that finished 2nd and 4th last year outside the 8.

    So probability is not determinative, it’s indicative. And there are exceptions and I think both the Dogs and Power will break that probability.

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    • Like 1
    5 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

    Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

    And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

    My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

    Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

    In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

    not truem hawthorn lost to sydney and then won the next year, and collingwood lost 2 in a row

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    5 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

    Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

    And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

    My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

    Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

    In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

    I love you D17, but this is just not correct. Many examples dating back 125 years. In some quarters, it was sometimes considered a predictor on who would win the premiership. By my quick count, it's happened 27 times. That is, one in five premierships in the VFL/AFL have been won by the club who lost the previous years grand final. 

    Edited by Queanbeyan Demon
    Typo

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    Tigers have hit a patch of form against lower teams. Had we kicked straight and obliterated them, they’d be a non talking point. 

    Cats look vulnerable away from their home ground and will only tire as we get closer to the end they could be struggling to make finals this year.

    Lions and Dees are a lock for top 4. Freo are playing well but am not sold on them for top 4 just yet. 

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