Welcome to Demonland - Pick 38

[Nascent 7,324]

A thread to discuss our second live pick at the 2021 AFL draft.
 
With father/son and NGA selections, as well as the ability of trading picks from now right through to and including draft night, this number is surely going to change before we call out our second player.

While our list is in healthy shape in both age demographic and positional depth, we may look to target a developing Ruck for both insurance for next year and an eye to a post Gawn era. Toby Conway is one we might look at he is still on the board with Cal Twomey ranking him at #26 in his latest form guide and labels him the best ruck prospect in the draft.
 
Toby Conway
Ruckman
 204cm/90kg 
24/4/03
 Geelong Falcons/Vic Country

The best young ruck in the draft who can start things for his midfielders at centre bounces and is also handy around the ground as a drop-back player or move-forward target. Conway, a cousin of Sydney's Tom McCartin and his brother and former Saints forward Paddy, performed well for the Geelong Falcons and Vic Country this season before the season was cut short.
 
If its another midfielder we're after to suppliment the list following the departures of Jones and AVB, Corey Warner from WA might fit the bill. Not ranked in Cal Twomeys top 30, he sneaks into that very same position on draft centrals latest draft rankings.

#30 Corey Warner
East Fremantle/Western Australia - Balanced Midfielder
07/10/2003 - 182cm - 74kg

Snapshot: Warner is a hard-running midfielder who can play both inside and out, breaking forward with intent and a penetrating left foot kick. There is another 'C.Warner' running around, this time of the Corey variety after brother Chad was drafted to Sydney in 2019. The younger sibling skippered Aquinas College this year and managed four League games for East Fremantle, plying his trade out on the wing. He traded that outside role for one at the centre bounces when playing against his peers, averaging 24 disposals in nine Colts games and matching that average across his three finals appearances. While somewhat dependent on his left side, Warner gets good penetration on the end of bursting runs forward, carrying away from the midfield with purpose. He also made a State Under 19s appearance in 2021 and has risen steeply into second round contention. 
 
Links to Cal Twomeys top 30 form guide and Draft Centrals October rankings below

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' September ranking

Draft Central Power Rankings: October 2021

[spirit of norm smith 12,978]

Yes Corey Warner would be a gift at this pick, which is likely to be 42-43 after father sons, zoning and NGAs selections.  Other names : 

Isaac Birt. Sth Adelaide.
Judson Clarke. Dandenong Stingrays. 
 

Early days with combine performance and results to possibly push some others up the draft boards  

 

[Blistering 493]

14 hours ago, Nascent said:

A thread to discuss our second live pick at the 2021 AFL draft.
 
With father/son and NGA selections, as well as the ability of trading picks from now right through to and including draft night, this number is surely going to change before we call out our second player.

While our list is in healthy shape in both age demographic and positional depth, we may look to target a developing Ruck for both insurance for next year and an eye to a post Gawn era. Toby Conway is one we might look at he is still on the board with Cal Twomey ranking him at #26 in his latest form guide and labels him the best ruck prospect in the draft.
 
Toby Conway
Ruckman
 204cm/90kg 
24/4/03
 Geelong Falcons/Vic Country

The best young ruck in the draft who can start things for his midfielders at centre bounces and is also handy around the ground as a drop-back player or move-forward target. Conway, a cousin of Sydney's Tom McCartin and his brother and former Saints forward Paddy, performed well for the Geelong Falcons and Vic Country this season before the season was cut short.
 
If its another midfielder we're after to suppliment the list following the departures of Jones and AVB, Corey Warner from WA might fit the bill. Not ranked in Cal Twomeys top 30, he sneaks into that very same position on draft centrals latest draft rankings.

It’s been written elsewhere that the is a a shortage of young ruck talent available for this draft. That being the case, it’s hard to fathom that the best ruck draft prospect would still be available with our second draft pick at 39 (or wherever that eventually falls).

[Colm 1,477]

Dogs pick 23 and pies pick 27 are still up for grabs. Think pick 23 is out of our reach but I’d be surprised if we are not making an offer to the pies. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,978]

32 minutes ago, Colm said:

Dogs pick 23 and pies pick 27 are still up for grabs. Think pick 23 is out of our reach but I’d be surprised if we are not making an offer to the pies. 

Good call on Pies pick.  It comes down to calculators and points per draft pick.  
 

This Dees pick also could be swapped with Saints. Our pick 37 and 57 for a Saints pick 62 and a future 2022 second round pick.  Saints need points in this draft imv

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by spirit of norm smith
V

[deelusions from afar 1,613]

33 minutes ago, Colm said:

Dogs pick 23 and pies pick 27 are still up for grabs. Think pick 23 is out of our reach but I’d be surprised if we are not making an offer to the pies. 

Can you explain how this would work.  I get confused about the points system as I thought they have to have the same number of list spots as draft picks - to stop teams stock piling on late picks?

[MadAsHell 4,088]

Just did a phantom draft and I had this pick turning into Pick 40. I think we could be forced to use it on Moniz-Wakefield, however I think we should look to trade this Pick to St Kilda for their future 2nd Round Pick so they have enough point for their two NGA's who are likely to go in the 2nd Round.

[Colm 1,477]

41 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Can you explain how this would work.  I get confused about the points system as I thought they have to have the same number of list spots as draft picks - to stop teams stock piling on late picks?

Pretty sure they just need to have the points to match on their farther/son pick. Think they already have enough points so we may need to offer a future pick along with 37 to get it done. 
Think every team has to pick 3 player in draft/drafts also. 

[ChaserJ 3,964]

3 hours ago, Blistering said:

It’s been written elsewhere that the is a a shortage of young ruck talent available for this draft. That being the case, it’s hard to fathom that the best draft prospect would still be available with our second draft pick at 39 (or wherever that eventually falls).

Next year is choc full of tall talent inside 20 and Brisbane will need to trade out their first rounder to match a very high bid for Ashcroft. 

https://twitter.com/EdPascoe_eDPS/status/1448408932678987776?s=20

I don’t think we need to overreach for a developing ruck. This year, maybe Cripps an option with our pick in the 40s ( should come in to around 42 after bid matching).

 

[Colm 1,477]

59 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Good call on Pies pick.  It comes down to calculators and points per draft pick.  
 

This Dees pick also could be swapped with Saints. Our pick 37 and 57 for a Saints pick 62 and a future 2022 second round pick.  Saints need points in this draft imv

 

Lamb said on trade radio after we got pick 17 that we were still trying to move up further. Don’t know if  he was talking about 17 only I’m assuming they would be open to moving up from either 17 or 37. 
The Saints trade would make sense but Lamb also said that we are now in a phase of bringing through a second crop of quality draft picks though around the same age so I’m thinking they will be keener to pick up draft talent this year to complement the likes of Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Bowie and co. 

Edited October 13, 2021 by Colm

[whatwhat say what 19,091]

i was under the impression the aints' nga picks are around that 15-30 range? some thought that marcus windhager may go inside the top 20, precluding them from matching a bid, a la mac andrew for us

[Colm 1,477]

Yeah your right. I must have gotten them mixed up with another club. Have changes post now. 

[deelusions from afar 1,613]

2 hours ago, Colm said:

Pretty sure they just need to have the points to match on their farther/son pick. Think they already have enough points so we may need to offer a future pick along with 37 to get it done. 
Think every team has to pick 3 player in draft/drafts also. 

I'm pretty sure there is something preventing a club stockpiling picks eg from 40-70 to use on NGA / FS.  I'm sure someone else here can explain how it works

[Mach5 4,482]

On 10/14/2021 at 12:45 PM, deelusions from afar said:

I'm pretty sure there is something preventing a club stockpiling picks eg from 40-70 to use on NGA / FS.  I'm sure someone else here can explain how it works

I think there was, but the AFL changed the rules for last year due to COVID and have not yet returned to how they were, if they will at all.

Someone else more knowledgeable in this area might have more info or certainty.

[Mach5 4,482]

On 10/13/2021 at 11:54 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes Corey Warner would be a gift at this pick, which is likely to be 42-43 after father sons, zoning and NGAs selections.  Other names : 

Isaac Birt. Sth Adelaide.
Judson Clarke. Dandenong Stingrays. 
 

Early days with combine performance and results to possibly push some others up the draft boards  

 

Isn’t it the case that early selections will be added for matched bids, but by the time they get to our pick, other picks will have evaporated due to points consumed to match bids and it will balance out or even bring our pick in earlier? 

[spirit of norm smith 12,978]

8 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Isn’t it the case that early selections will be added for matched bids, but by the time they get to our pick, other picks will have evaporated due to points consumed to match bids and it will balance out or even bring our pick in earlier? 

Yes good points raised. The matching points required by Dogs and Pies mean their picks evaporate or get shifted back.   Hard to tell and also how and where the NGAs get picked.  

[Lucifers Hero 37,133]

On 10/14/2021 at 12:45 PM, deelusions from afar said:

I'm pretty sure there is something preventing a club stockpiling picks eg from 40-70 to use on NGA / FS.  I'm sure someone else here can explain how it works

 

28 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think there was, but the AFL changed the rules for last year due to COVID and have not yet returned to how they were, if they will at all.

Someone else more knowledgeable in this area might have more info or certainty.

draft-rule-tweaked

"Sydney, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs are among the clubs who have been given a boost by a rule change on the eve of the NAB AFL Draft"

The tweak has not been revoked this year so the loophole continues..

26 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Isn’t it the case that early selections will be added for matched bids, but by the time they get to our pick, other picks will have evaporated due to points consumed to match bids and it will balance out or even bring our pick in earlier? 

 

15 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes good points raised. The matching points required by Dogs and Pies mean their picks evaporate or get shifted back.   Hard to tell and also how and where the NGAs get picked.  

Our 49 and 57 picks come in quite a bit.

From  the 'Trade in Draft Picks' Thread:

On 10/15/2021 at 9:42 AM, Premiers said:

After trading out their round 2 picks for yet unknown later/future picks:

• Pies have picks – No.36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78 and 79
• Dogs have picks No. 43, 44, 45, 52, 93

We currently have 37, 49, 57 ie 952 draft points.  Once Pies and Dogs use their picks for F/s our picks become 36, 43, 49 ie 1167 draft points.  If Pies/Bulldogs bring in more picks below our #57 it will further improve the value of our picks.

Footnote:  Hope I have the arithmetic right on how our picks move up after Pies and Dogs match F/S.😬  The logic is sound but maybe folks check the calcs before relying on them...

Edited October 16, 2021 by Premiers

[Nascent 7,324]

On 10/14/2021 at 6:54 AM, Blistering said:

It’s been written elsewhere that the is a a shortage of young ruck talent available for this draft. That being the case, it’s hard to fathom that the best ruck draft prospect would still be available with our second draft pick at 39 (or wherever that eventually falls).

Quite possibly right. I've mainly put him there as the club I believe have said they would ideally like another developing ruck on the list and Conway is, allegedly, the best one in the draft.  He is largely predicted to go from the second round onwards.

We then had half a dozen rucks taken in the midseason draft this year which may take other clubs out of the market for a Ruck. Unless you're an exceptional talent like Jackson, Naitinui or Grundy, rucks tend to slide into the back half of the draft. Tigers most likely the risk with 3 consecutive picks at 26, 27 and 28 and most likely in the market for a ruck as well.

[Nascent 7,324]

So who's next?

Do we target outside run/medium defenders that many predicted we would for our first pick? 

I would imagine we will see a lot more trading tomorrow night as clubs target specific players for limited list spots.

We currently hold picks 38, 42 and 50 and likely to only use two of these. We may yet trade up or trade in a future selection save for a surprise 2nd round bid for Woewodin.

[adonski 9,157]

10 minutes ago, Nascent said:

So who's next?

Do we target outside run/medium defenders that many predicted we would for our first pick? 

I would imagine we will see a lot more trading tomorrow night as clubs target specific players for limited list spots.

We currently hold picks 38, 42 and 50 and likely to only use two of these. We may yet trade up or trade in a future selection save for a surprise 2nd round bid for Woewodin.

Classy midfielder if possible.

Sonsie probably will be taken by the Hawks.

Will be interesting to see where clubs rate Goater. Could be a Dangerfield or could be a Sam Frost, I'm intrigued. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by adonski

[Nascent 7,324]

I still like the look of Taylor as a balanced midfielder but doubt he will be in the clubs thinking. Wonder if Howes is still a possibility?

[Turner 1,482]

54 minutes ago, adonski said:

Classy midfielder if possible.

Sonsie probably will be taken by the Hawks.

Will be interesting to see where clubs rate Goater. Could be a Dangerfield or could be a Sam Frost, I'm intrigued. 

thought the hawks were meant to be absolutely sold on bazzo, maybe the blues jump in here now with the jones retirement

[BAMF 3,787]

Hoping for Conway.

[Lucifers Hero 37,133]

With Geelong in desperate need of a ruckman and Conway being a local I would be very surprised if he gets past their picks 24, 25, and 35.

We would need to pick swap into the mid-high 20's to get him, using our picks 38 and 42 if we wanted him.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Lucifers Hero

[Turner 1,482]

the cats took a young ruck last year shannon neale and also added tsapolisis as a cat b basketballer so i can't see them taking a ruck given the age of their mids and with sav more likely to ruck full time after stanley than play forward imo