Welcome to Demonland - Pick 17

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

1 hour ago, dee-tox said:

With TMac, Max, BBB and May in the twilight of their careers will we try and go tall with pick 17?

Or do we think Weed, Petty, Tomlinson, Jacko, etc are sufficient?

I don't think twilight is the correct term.

Gawn and May will be 30 next year and you would expect will play high level footy until 33.

Brown and TMac are 29 and similar to the above.

So based on that we have 3-4 years of solid footy ahead for those 4.

Also good to remember that with free agency we can easily go out in 3 years time and offer a contract to a good key forward around 25-26 years old and top up that way.

I'm not saying we shouldn't draft good kids if they are available as a key position, just I don't think it's worth worrying about. When you are in the window you've got to go for it and hopefully we can get another 1 or 2 flags with this team.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

2 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Is this even possible? Isn't Chandler a rookie? And haven't I read somewhere that rookies can't be traded (ie, are the equivalent of free agents)?

Was Chandler on the main list and delisted and put on the rookie list. If so he is a unrestricted free agent.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,861]

11 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Is this even possible? Isn't Chandler a rookie? And haven't I read somewhere that rookies can't be traded (ie, are the equivalent of free agents)?

They can be traded but they can’t be on the rookie list at their new team. 

[Garbo 1,534]

28 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Interesting comment on the theage real footy podcast - for a number of years we have sacrificed our future first to get into the first round of the current year (or to satisfy a trade in the case of Lever).  The year we didn't is after 2018 where we fell to 17th and our first pick netted us Jackson.

Lucky we didn't do it in 2018 - was this just luck?  Or did our list management team know we were likely to slide (due to injuries, over achieving in 2018 etc)?

Think we didn’t trade as most teams pegged us for top 4 in 19 and hence would have only offered something similar in return. Unless we had a specific target we thought would be available round pick 16-20 in 18 then it wasn’t worth it. Plus we already had a big trade in the pipe line with Hogan and May which netted a pick in that range as well.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Garbo

[DeeSpencer 25,709]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Who was the last mid we took in the first round? Clarry?

Reckon they'll want the best available mid imo, with that being said if one of the more highly rated talls slide, their hand may be forced 

Oliver the last guy who was destined straight for the centre square. Sparrow probably had close to a first round rating and Rivers (also rated highly), Bowey and Laurie were all junior mids who could end up there. Spargo too.

I reckon we’re getting closer to the scenario every recruiter wants which is to draft quality midfield types. Then if they can win it on the deck, chase and tackle they go to Greg Stafford, if they can halve contests, evade and kick they got to Troy Chaplin. Hand one or two over to Yze after a few preseasons 

[Lucifers Hero 39,806]

1 hour ago, deelusions from afar said:

Interesting comment on the theage real footy podcast - for a number of years we have sacrificed our future first to get into the first round of the current year (or to satisfy a trade in the case of Lever).  The year we didn't is after 2018 where we fell to 17th and our first pick netted us Jackson.

Lucky we didn't do it in 2018 - was this just luck?  Or did our list management team know we were likely to slide (due to injuries, over achieving in 2018 etc)?

Can't recall the exact details but the AFL require a club to use a 1st round pick every rolling 3 yr (i think) period.  We had traded out 3 years of first round picks for Lever and May so were not allowed to bring forward the 2019 future pick.  Or something like that.

We were lucky that timing coincide with us finishing 17th.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Premiers

[whatwhat say what 22,756]

20 minutes ago, Premiers said:

We were lucky that timing coincide with us finishing 19th.

not even melbourne under neeld was THAT bad 😈

[Lucifers Hero 39,806]

1 minute ago, whatwhat say what said:

not even melbourne under neeld was THAT bad 😈

Got it!  Will go back and fix. ;-)

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,702]

50 minutes ago, Premiers said:

Got it!  Will go back and fix. ;-)

Hang on there a minute, there might be a 19th team(Tassie) coming in Premiers!😂

[DubDee 25,866]

I wonder if we'll ever just keep our future first round pick instead of trading it away to get into the current first round?  lol

[Deestroy All 14,266]

16 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

About the same odds as Hawthorn and the Dogs missing it in 2009 and 2017. Easy to look at the reasons they missed out now in hindsight and say they won't apply to us but I doubt anyone was saying they would before the start of those years. I'd put missing the finals next year as not much less likely than us winning the flag by 70 points before this year.

The inability to land a big fish and the possibility of ending up with a pick somewhere between 10-14 next year and having a top 5 guy on JT's board fall to that range are probably more compelling reasons not to do this trade than our pick being in the single figures.

 

If you think a system that has worked for a year and a half, that’s now absolutely smashed home a flag, and has had no cogs removed is suddenly going to fall apart and miss the finals, you haven’t been paying attention. 
 

Winning a flag didn’t give you any relief at all, did it?

[Little Goffy 14,545]

My early gut feeling was that we would target one of the multiple 'hard' medium defenders as a succession plan for Hibberd. There are I think four of them predicted to go from 15-25. I'm even more comfortable with that guess now, and I'd be really keen to know who The Great and Wise Jason has his eye on.

Alas, we'll have to wait.

Of course, the chances we'll actually finish with 17, 37 and 49 are minimal.

 

[adonski 12,140]

Is our lack of medium sized defenders a bit of a myth?

Neither Hunt nor Tomlinson were out there on grandfinal day.

[xman97 108]

6 hours ago, Action Jackson said:

I don't think twilight is the correct term.

Gawn and May will be 30 next year and you would expect will play high level footy until 33.

Brown and TMac are 29 and similar to the above.

So based on that we have 3-4 years of solid footy ahead for those 4.

Also good to remember that with free agency we can easily go out in 3 years time and offer a contract to a good key forward around 25-26 years old and top up that way.

I'm not saying we shouldn't draft good kids if they are available as a key position, just I don't think it's worth worrying about. When you are in the window you've got to go for it and hopefully we can get another 1 or 2 flags with this team.

I think a key forward with our 1st pick also. Seeing there’s 2 positions to fill on the ground, I’d be comfortable banking on getting 1 free agent in the door. Getting 2 in the same year or 2 period, would be difficult.

 

In 3 years time, lets say 2 of these happen, which is realistic: Weid (leaves for opportunity in 2 years),  Dogga (leaves for WA), Tmac (only plays best 22 footy for only another 2 years). B.Brown (only plays best 22 footy for 3 years). So, in 3 years time, we then have 2 of the players above. If Weid or Dogga leave, we might only have 1 of the 4 players above, due to the possibility of Brown retiring at 32 yrs old and Tmac retiring at 31 yrs old.

 

As we all know, the majority of key forwards take 2 to 4 years to make it into the best 22. In my opinion, we need to draft 1 this year, and 1 next year or the year after. 

[adonski 12,140]

Early prediction is one of Mitch Knevitt or Matthew Roberts.

 

[DeeSpencer 25,709]

36 minutes ago, adonski said:

Is our lack of medium sized defenders a bit of a myth?

Neither Hunt nor Tomlinson were out there on grandfinal day.

Tomlinson is more of a backman than a defender. We don’t ever want him one on one against a dangerous mobile forward.

I think the doubt is relating to lack of confidence in Hunt’s defensive abilities, lack of confidence in Joel Smith full stop and limited exposure to Deak Smith. And I’d add Riv and Bowey being young too. Riv was excellent defensively for most of the year but I’m not sure we want to limit his role so much. 

I don’t think there’s much to worry about, but I do think we’ve been spoiled by having Jetta and Hibbo for so long.

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

57 minutes ago, adonski said:

Is our lack of medium sized defenders a bit of a myth?

Neither Hunt nor Tomlinson were out there on grandfinal day.

Nor was Marty Hore.

[adonski 12,140]

18 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Tomlinson is more of a backman than a defender. We don’t ever want him one on one against a dangerous mobile forward.

I think the doubt is relating to lack of confidence in Hunt’s defensive abilities, lack of confidence in Joel Smith full stop and limited exposure to Deak Smith. And I’d add Riv and Bowey being young too. Riv was excellent defensively for most of the year but I’m not sure we want to limit his role so much. 

I don’t think there’s much to worry about, but I do think we’ve been spoiled by having Jetta and Hibbo for so long.

Fair enough. Personally I'd be really disappointed if we spent a first round pick on a medium sized defender. I think it's one of those positions you can mould a player into.

Both my head & my heart are telling me we'll go for the best available mid (not a massive prediction given it's a midfield heavy draft).

[Garbo 1,534]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Is our lack of medium sized defenders a bit of a myth?

Neither Hunt nor Tomlinson were out there on grandfinal day.

It would be if any other team had a mobile mid sized fwd like fritsch, I think smalls are more the issue and  we just delisted our lockdown small in Lockhart

Edited October 7, 2021 by Garbo

[adonski 12,140]

6 minutes ago, Garbo said:

It would be if any other team had a mobile mid sized fwd like fritsch, I think smalls are more the issue and  we just delisted our lockdown small in Lockhart

Can't be that big of an issue if Lockhart never played 

[MadAsHell 4,212]

I'm optimistic there will be a bit of a gentleman's agreement in place and Mac Andrew will drift to this pick for us to take at 17 (19 after F/S bids).

If Andrew is gone before this pick though, my focus would be on one of Jacob Van Rooyen out of Claremont or Rhett Bazxo from Swan Districts. Both key position players who can play at either end of the ground. Van Rooyen probably more a forward then defender and Bazzo more defender then forward. With May, McDonald, B. Brown, Tomlinson and M. Brown or 28 or older at the start of next season, another good young key position player coming through would be ideal.

[olisik 4,060]

4 minutes ago, MadAsHell said:

I'm optimistic there will be a bit of a gentleman's agreement in place and Mac Andrew will drift to this pick for us to take at 17 (19 after F/S bids).

If Andrew is gone before this pick though, my focus would be on one of Jacob Van Rooyen out of Claremont or Rhett Bazxo from Swan Districts. Both key position players who can play at either end of the ground. Van Rooyen probably more a forward then defender and Bazzo more defender then forward. With May, McDonald, B. Brown, Tomlinson and M. Brown or 28 or older at the start of next season, another good young key position player coming through would be ideal.

Would be a foolish move to take him at 19, if he lasts 1 more pick we could then take him with pick 37. 

[dazzledavey36 54,938]

7 minutes ago, MadAsHell said:

I'm optimistic there will be a bit of a gentleman's agreement in place and Mac Andrew will drift to this pick for us to take at 17 (19 after F/S bids).

If Andrew is gone before this pick though, my focus would be on one of Jacob Van Rooyen out of Claremont or Rhett Bazxo from Swan Districts. Both key position players who can play at either end of the ground. Van Rooyen probably more a forward then defender and Bazzo more defender then forward. With May, McDonald, B. Brown, Tomlinson and M. Brown or 28 or older at the start of next season, another good young key position player coming through would be ideal.

No such thing as gentlemen agreement.

He'll go top 10. And even if he drifted out to our pick I would hope we don't pick him as he's not what we're after.

[MadAsHell 4,212]

10 minutes ago, olisik said:

Would be a foolish move to take him at 19, if he lasts 1 more pick we could then take him with pick 37. 

Hence the gentlemen's agreement comment. Clubs may let him slide under the proviso we take him with our first pick.

Edited October 7, 2021 by MadAsHell

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

1 minute ago, dazzledavey36 said:

No such thing as gentlemen agreement.

He'll go top 10. And even if he drifted out to our pick I would hope we don't pick him as he's not what we're after.

Yeah I don't think there will be gentlemen's agreements for the reigning premiers.  

Maybe not what we need but wouldn't say no if we could get him - he'd be coming into the best system with Gawn and Jackson and having Majak on our list would surely help as well.