AFL.com - on who'll win in 2021.

Hnmm very interesting, based on previous winners how accurate is this prediction? I believe if Clarry doesnt win outright it could be a two or even three way tie. He has had a stellar year and his selfless mantra of improving for the teams sake says volumes about the buy in, not only from him, but the whole club.

Interesting.  Gawn also on 13 according to this.  So Clarry 34, Petracca 25 and Gawn 13 is 72 votes between them.  We won 17 games (hard to get the 3 in losing games, although Oliver should do it against Adelaide first time around) which is 51 total in 3's.  It's not beyond the realms to be fair.  I think Gawn is likely to be a little higher than 13 and both Petracca and Oliver marginally lower.  But I still think Oliver wins (or at least ties).

Loved on the Gawny and Gus podcast they were laughing about potential speaches if Jackson won the rising star or Clarry won the brownlow.

some vanilla player like Mitchell will probably win it.

I reckon Clarrie’s lack of votes in previous seasons is telling. Might struggle (also the reason the ‘Coaches votes’ should be the most valued award). 

ABC footballer of the year, probably AFLCA….would have to be a very strong chance.

Age Footy Podcast didn’t even mention Oliver - Bontempelli or Wines was concensus.

Edited August 24, 20214 yr by Superunknown

I still think Trac will be in the finish

The umpires historically haven't liked Clarrie (as Webber referenced).  The dislike has thawed but won't be enough to see him win it.   Clearly, Bontempelli was the favoured one for much of the season and would have a lot of votes banked.

I think it's really hard for teams that have multiple heavily polling players to produce a winner, which is why i think the winner will be Ollie Wines, but i also think Zach Merrett has had a VERY good season and could be top 3 

 

Unfortunately, I reckon there will be a correlation between the umpire free kick differential and the team the brownlow winner comes from.

Doggies lead a charmed life with the umpires on free kicks, no reason they won't also have affirmation bias when it comes to their voting. 

When is the Brownlow count and Coaches awards??

2 hours ago, Webber said:

I reckon Clarrie’s lack of votes in previous seasons is telling. Might struggle (also the reason the ‘Coaches votes’ should be the most valued award). 

Agree strongly.

Reckon Clarrie is still seen as a bit of a stager by the umps, and is a long way off being one of their "pets".

Probably deserves to win on output, but there are others i would have my money on before him.

clayton and max both give the maggots too much lip to be their pets

54 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

I think it's really hard for teams that have multiple heavily polling players to produce a winner, which is why i think the winner will be Ollie Wines, but i also think Zach Merrett has had a VERY good season and could be top 3 

Logic agrees with you, but history doesn't. Aker/ Voss/ Black; Judd/Cousins/Kerr; Ablett/ Bartel; Mitchell/ Hodge; Swan/ Pendlebury; Fyfe/ Mundy; Danger/ Selwood, etc. Not many Brownlows get won by good players in bad sides (Fyfe the only recent exception).

The winner almost always comes from a team that wins 15+ games. Bont, Oliver and Wines will be a clear top 3 I reckon.

Would be surprised if Clarry wins it. 

Gawn will poll very well. 

51 minutes ago, picket fence said:

When is the Brownlow count and Coaches awards??

Coaches award announced tomorrow night.

I don't think the brownlow nights been locked in but if we have a bye between the prelims and the granny it'll be that week to maximise attention/ratings. 

I see Clarry as having next to no chance of winning. He just doesn't pole well. The fact we rate the Brownlow as the highest honour is stupid. Highest honour should be coach and/or player voted. Petracca is a better chance in my eyes.

I'll be very happy with a Clarry Norm Smith! 

Think it might be Bont's to lose this year.  Though he finished slow, he'll probably have a sizable lead by two thirds of the way though the season.   Player link Bontempelli and Petracca catch the eye a lot easier than Oliver and a probably a little friendlier to the umps in the heat of battle.

 

 

I had a closer look at the coaches votes and at the end of round 21 this is a summary:

Oliver had 16 'minor' votes for a total of 104 and Bont had 4 for a total of 101.  As umpires vote 3,2,1 these 'minor' votes are unlikely to feature in Brownlow voting so I have omitted them from the above.  

Bont has 5, BOG, and 4 second BOG. ie 27 Brownlow votes if umpires see it as per coaches.  Oliver has 2 BOG and 4 second BOG ie 14 Brownlow votes if umpires see it as per coaches.

I doubt Bont will get votes in rnd 22 and 23.  Oliver may get 1 ca vote for rnd 22 and either BOG (which he deserves) or second BOG for rnd 23.  If Oliver gets lots of 1 votes from the umpires he might get closer to Bontempelli but those 5 BOG's look tough to overcome.

I haven't looked at Wines but he could pip Oliver and finish second.

Edit:  Did the summary for Wines up to round 21.  He has 5 BOG's. 1 second BOG.ie  17 Brownlow votes.  He has 33 'minor' ca votes which might be good for a few 1 Brownlow vote.  He will probably be BOG in rnd 23 but not get votes in rnd 22.   Again those BOG's will be tough for Oliver to overcome, if umpires follow coaches.

Edited August 25, 20214 yr by Lucifer's Hero

21 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I had a closer look at the coaches votes and at the end of round 21 this is a summary:

Oliver had 16 'miinor' votes for a total of 104 and Bont had 4 for a total of 101.  As umpires vote 3,2,1 these 'minor' votes are unlikely to feature in Brownlow voting so I have omitted them from the above.  

Bont has 5, BOG, and 4 second BOG. ie 27 Brownlow votes if umpires see it as per coaches.  Oliver has 2 BOG and 4 second BOG ie 14 Brownlow votes if umpires see it as per coaches.

I doubt Bont will get votes in rnd 22 and 23.  Oliver may get 1 ca vote for rnd 22 and either BOG (which he deserves) or second BOG for rnd 23.  If Oliver gets lots of 1 votes from the umpires he might get closer to Bontempelli but those 5 BOG's look tough to overcome.

I haven't looked at Wines but he could pip Oliver and finish second.

Thanks Luci. I think your analysis will prove to be pretty accurate.

Would like to see a similar thing done for Trac, if you could please. 

21 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

Thanks Luci. I think your analysis will prove to be pretty accurate.

Would like to see a similar thing done for Trac, if you could please. 

Here is Petracca and Gawn to round 21.

Oliver is by far our best chance.

Other Demon players to get a 10 for BOG are:  May * 2, TMc *1, Salem *2, Fritsch * 1.  

1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Here is Petracca and Gawn to round 21.

Oliver is by far our best chance.

Other Demon players to get a 10 for BOG are:  May * 2, TMc *1, Salem *2, Fritsch * 1.  

Thanks Luci - wish I had this info before I placed money on Trac!

16 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

Thanks Luci - wish I had this info before I placed money on Trac!

Next Year I'll do a running tally!

Just for fun I plan to overlay the Brownlow results for above players and see how close the umpires are to coaches.

If the AFL predictor is a guide then there will be a bit of divergence.

Anyone have any 'smokies'?

While not polling well with coaches Andrew Brayshaw has by some accounts had a very good year.

Would laugh if he came 3rd!!