CHANGES: Rd 20 vs Gold Coast

[Brownie 5,981]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

I don't mind him keeping ANB if he's bringing the consistent pressure etc tbh, but I think where we're falling down a bit is we haven't evened up the balance of quality ball use. It would probably be not so bad if Spargo was getting the ball more, but as it stands we have Spargo, ANB, Harmes and Viney all providing 'pressure' without enough quality delivery or scoreboard impact, so when Oliver, Petracca, Langdon and Gus don't deliver to their absolute peak (as we're seeing currently) we fall down a bit in the forward half.

Get Melksham in, get Viney back to forward/mid, get Harmes out, get Spargo more involved with the ball and I think that could lead to more goals, and maybe even some super easy set shots that will help to build confidence in our goal kicking.

Then all we have to worry about is the midfield disconnect and the problems in the back half when the ball is on the deck...

I was thinking Pickett should spend more time in the middle too.

Maybe leave Viney forward more often and bring Spargo and Pickett into the congestion. It can't hurt, they're both pretty good in traffic.

[SPC 3,551]

I still think the 3rd midfielder is our greatest issue. We need to try something else, something different.

I have been going on about Salem for years, now his form has slipped, I think it’s worth a go now. I would rotate he, River and ANB. When Salem is not in the midfield, rotate him on the wing or HFF.

Could be a chance to move Hunt or Rivers to the Wing. 
Bowey to come in and play Back, Sparrow to play back. Jackson out, Jordan out. 
TMAC and BB to do the job as talls. 
 

[SPC 3,551]

1 minute ago, Brownie said:

I was thinking Pickett should spend more time in the middle too.

Maybe leave Viney forward more often and bring Spargo and Pickett into the congestion. It can't hurt, they're both pretty good in traffic.

Not sure I have ever seen Pickett touch it in the middle. Seems lost there 

[old dee 23,799]

2 hours ago, drdrake said:

Assuming you are talking about M Brown, I thought he was injured and we don't need a tall, I reckon we will be a better functioning forward line by adding Melksham and another defensive small rather than adding a tall.  No question Jackson needs to be dropped along with Harmes.

 

We need to try something as our forward line isn't functioning, sides are rebounding way to easily from our forward 50m arc.  If you keep doing the same thing you aren't going to improve.  We have Geelong and WCE that thrive on intercept marking rebounding from defensive 50, they control the football from their defensive 50m. 

He was a month ago. I have not seen any comment about him since. Of course Casey are not playing so who knows. Still out with injured heel 2-3 weeks so I guess BB stays in as no alternative.

Edited July 26, 2021 by old dee

[Lord Nev 13,512]

23 minutes ago, Brownie said:

I was thinking Pickett should spend more time in the middle too.

Maybe leave Viney forward more often and bring Spargo and Pickett into the congestion. It can't hurt, they're both pretty good in traffic.

100%. Kozzy in the middle gives us that little bit of unpredictability too, which we desperately need.

Not sure why we stopped doing that.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,816]

I have no idea what changes should be made. For example, I thought Hibberd really struggled with a serious case of the fumbles. But if he was playing primarily on Ugle-Hagan (and I don't know if he was), then job done.

Conversely, and contrary to most others, I thought ANB had an excellent game. But if his job was to stop Caleb Daniel (and I don't know if it was), then he failed in that responsibilty.

What does seem apparent to me, though, is that for the last few weeks Jackson has dropped right off. Perhaps it's time to give hima break and either bring in Weideman (if we want him as second ruckman to enable T Mac to stay forward) or Melksham, if we want a bit more class forward, while accepting T Mac as second ruck.  

[binman 43,131]

19 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

100%. Kozzy in the middle gives us that little bit of unpredictability too, which we desperately need.

Not sure why we stopped doing that.

He is probably pretty gassed.

Come finals i reckon Kozzie will be used as shock trooper again

[Lord Nev 13,512]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

He is probably pretty gassed.

Come finals i reckon Kozzie will be used as shock trooper again

Maybe, but it's also coincided with Viney coming back and Gus playing more midfield.

[Deemania since 56 6,658]

3 hours ago, jumbo returns said:

Bevo was rubbing his hands in glee, watching Bontempelli and Daniel run riot

Harmes has become a major liability

Basically agree but I feel that Harmes has, in the main, been grossly mis-matched, time and again. 

[Canplay 634]

Out :  ANB,  Rivers,  Jacko.  -    We need some class in ANB's position not just a running machine.  Rivers and Jacko need a week off.

In  :   Melks,  Bowey,  Weid.  -    Melks in high half fwd role -  need some vision and skill.   Bowey in for Rivers  - need some more agility in back line when ball hits the deck.  Weid in for Jacko playing second ruck/resting fwd.    

Need to put Viney in a permanent pressure small forward (should have played this role on calem daniel on Sat).  He's not good at centre clearances and looks a little out of condition post foot injury.  

Put Jordan into guts more often in place of Viney -  he's a point of difference, great at clearance and adds more spread. 

 

[Kent 2,912]

1 hour ago, SPC said:

I still think the 3rd midfielder is our greatest issue. We need to try something else, something different.

I have been going on about Salem for years, now his form has slipped, I think it’s worth a go now. I would rotate he, River and ANB. When Salem is not in the midfield, rotate him on the wing or HFF.

Could be a chance to move Hunt or Rivers to the Wing. 
Bowey to come in and play Back, Sparrow to play back. Jackson out, Jordan out. 
TMAC and BB to do the job as talls. 
 

What do you do with Brayshaw? LRO?

[titan_uranus 25,020]

2 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

You wouldn't know this without being in the inner sanctum of course, but gut feel is they decided to let Gawn win the hitouts without even really trying so that they could predict the stoppages better. They then dominated stoppage clearances and kicked 6 goals from them.

Seemingly they were also more than happy to have some 'chaos ball' in their forward 50 knowing it takes May and Lever out of the equation and puts pressure on out of form players like Hibberd, Rivers and Salem. Seemed Goody tried to combat that with Spargo in the back half but that didn't really work.

Also, he played Libba more on the outside this time instead of just in the guts like round 11. On top of that, it looked like they tried to disrupt the tag by putting other players to Harmes and/or Viney. In the end, it seemed like either we gave up on that tag or the taggers did a poor job.

I doubt they did anything strategic with the ruck: without Martin they don't have a ruck on their list capable of competing with Gawn in hit outs, so IMO it's not as if they had an alternative plan of trying to win hit outs but chose not to go with it.

I think like many sides, once they know they can't compete with hit outs they focus on what to do with Gawn's hit outs but for a side whose 2021 strategy has clearly been to beef up their midfield to unprecedented levels of quality, it's hardly surprising they were able to shark the taps.

The "chaos ball" forward of centre point is interesting - they may have taken the ball away from May and Lever to an extent but I felt our guys were very much still in the game and if they weren't marking it they were spoiling it out of bounds or killing contests pretty well.

And I felt like Libba killed us when he was in the middle but otherwise wasn't too damaging (whereas Bontempelli and Smith were noticeably dominant on the spread). 

My view is that the Dogs did nothing surprising tactically to beat us, they backed in what they're good at (smart delivery off half-back from Daniel and Dale and a dominant midfield) and we failed to do what we needed to do to compete with that (forward half turnovers, laziness at defensive stoppages, and missed shots on goal that we need to be kicking).

I may well be unreasonably optimistic about it all but my view remains that all of our losses/the draw, except the Collingwood loss, are more attributable to our mistakes than our opponents' strategic successes.

[binman 43,131]

4 minutes ago, Canplay said:

Out :  ANB,  Rivers,  Jacko.  -    We need some class in ANB's position not just a running machine.  Rivers and Jacko need a week off.

In  :   Melks,  Bowey,  Weid.  -    Melks in high half fwd role -  need some vision and skill.   Bowey in for Rivers  - need some more agility in back line when ball hits the deck.  Weid in for Jacko playing second ruck/resting fwd.    

Need to put Viney in a permanent pressure small forward (should have played this role on calem daniel on Sat).  He's not good at centre clearances and looks a little out of condition post foot injury.  

Put Jordan into guts more often in place of Viney -  he's a point of difference, great at clearance and adds more spread. 

 

From the dees website. Nibbler was one of our best and is much more than juts a running machine.

He aint going to be dropped

BEST
Melbourne: Oliver, Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Lever, Gawn, Hunt
Western Bulldogs: Bontempelli, Daniel, Macrae, Smith, Hunter, Liberatore, Schache 

 

[SPC 3,551]

13 minutes ago, Kent said:

What do you do with Brayshaw? LRO?

I think he could play HFF/HBF, also rotating through the middle at times. He was good in the Geelong game at HB from memory when we lost May 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, Brownie said:

I was thinking Pickett should spend more time in the middle too.

Maybe leave Viney forward more often and bring Spargo and Pickett into the congestion. It can't hurt, they're both pretty good in traffic.

If we gained anything from Saturday night it should be the obvious fact that Viney was much more damaging playing as a forward vs through the middle.  I actually don't mind the move of Spargo for more time through the middle and having Viney play minimal minutes here.  Who knows what the right mix is but something like (Mid/Forward) Spargo 65 / 35 Viney 35 / 65

Spargo is a much better user of the ball than Viney, better at finding space and time, and would be more damaging with ball in hand coming inside 50.  Mixing these two between these positions will also keep the opp guessing and keeps Viney a little fresher for his short stint in the middle when needed.  Both players are also very hard nosed / effective defensively through the middle so we would lose very little with Spargo playing about 65% of time here and sharing the role with Jack IMV.

My other change would be either Sparrow or Chunk (if fit), to come back in for Jordan.  Jordan's been great at times this season, especially prior to the bye, but his efforts in the five rounds post that have dropped away badly, particularly in some key areas like clearances, tackle / pressure and score involvements.

I would favour chunk a smidgen ahead of Sparrow if fully fit and i'd have him playing a 70/30 role (Defensive Sweeper at Center bounces to pressure Bont et al running straight out of the congestion up the guts) and the other 30% up forward, sharing this role with Kozzie.  Kozzie i would have playing a different outer rim mid during his short stints in the middle looking for the receive and then 1st clean possession from the middle.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

100%. Kozzy in the middle gives us that little bit of unpredictability too, which we desperately need.

Not sure why we stopped doing that.

Have we completely stopped this option?  It wouldn't surprise me if we've backed him right off as playing a small HF role (effectively / consistently) is hard enough let alone significant minutes in the middle as well.  Subject to fitness / loads capability i would attempt to play him in the 70/30 HF/Mid role with Chunk.

47 minutes ago, binman said:

He is probably pretty gassed.

Come finals i reckon Kozzie will be used as shock trooper again

This is no doubt an ideal scenario but hopefully the bye in the week prior to the finals will freshen many up including Kozzie for this exact impact.  Until then we need to be going all out to win at least three of the next four to secure a top four spot.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[Lord Nev 13,512]

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I doubt they did anything strategic with the ruck: without Martin they don't have a ruck on their list capable of competing with Gawn in hit outs, so IMO it's not as if they had an alternative plan of trying to win hit outs but chose not to go with it.

I think like many sides, once they know they can't compete with hit outs they focus on what to do with Gawn's hit outs but for a side whose 2021 strategy has clearly been to beef up their midfield to unprecedented levels of quality, it's hardly surprising they were able to shark the taps.

They're not always a big hitout team, but against us they had 18 hitouts to our 67.

In their previous games they had 46, 31, 25, 25 and 35. In our last match the hitouts were Dees 38, Dogs 26.

Definitely seems like a big enough change to justify thinking it's a deliberate strategy.

 

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

The "chaos ball" forward of centre point is interesting - they may have taken the ball away from May and Lever to an extent but I felt our guys were very much still in the game and if they weren't marking it they were spoiling it out of bounds or killing contests pretty well.

They average 10 tackles inside 50 this year, against us they had 15.

Also, they average over 13 marks inside 50 per game this year. Against us they had 6.

  

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

And I felt like Libba killed us when he was in the middle but otherwise wasn't too damaging (whereas Bontempelli and Smith were noticeably dominant on the spread).

Yep, but playing him in a different role took away that advantage we had last time. The quality of their clearances was WAY up this time as opposed to round 11. They kicked 6 of their 13 goals from stoppages.

  

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

My view is that the Dogs did nothing surprising tactically to beat us, they backed in what they're good at (smart delivery off half-back from Daniel and Dale and a dominant midfield) and we failed to do what we needed to do to compete with that (forward half turnovers, laziness at defensive stoppages, and missed shots on goal that we need to be kicking).

My view is they did both. They maximized what they're good at while also having a plan to take away some of our strengths and challenge our weaknesses.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Lord Nev

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

2 hours ago, picket fence said:

Could Nev or Jones play Spargos role? Spargos 8 or so possesions is not inspiring me one little bit!

Wouldn't think so, Spargo was rated the 2nd best kick inside fwd 50 in the whole competition, it was something like 75% of his kicks inside 50 resulted in a score. So while he might not get much of it, he's what we need when we're struggling going into 50. Jetta has got much more of a defensive mindset, and we all know Jones is better at getting the ball than delivering it

[D Rev 629]

56 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Basically agree but I feel that Harmes has, in the main, been grossly mis-matched, time and again. 

I'm really not sure about Harmes' future with this club.  Brilliant athlete but no footy smarts.  I'd prefer Jones in his place, you know he will give 100%, or maybe give a kid a go.

[dazzledavey36 54,999]

7 minutes ago, D Rev said:

I'm really not sure about Harmes' future with this club.  Brilliant athlete but no footy smarts.  I'd prefer Jones in his place, you know he will give 100%, or maybe give a kid a go.

Not even sure why we initially signed him up to a 5 year deal..

[demon3165 2,726]

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Basically agree but I feel that Harmes has, in the main, been grossly mis-matched, time and again. 

No when Harmes went purely as a tagger he was ok now he is trying to do that and attack he does not have the ability to do both or have the football smarts.

[cantstandyasam 700]

4 hours ago, drdrake said:

If you bring in Melksham which I'm a fan of, you need to also add some more defensive pressure up forward, I don't think Bedford or Chandler has really had the opportunity to show if they are up to AFL level, you can't judge on the small sample we have seen .

 

Bedford doesn't get involved enough, never has even at junior level - he's a bit player at the moment and will be till he gets more of the ball. 

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

Jackson and Jordon must go out. 

For mine, Melksham must come in, purely for his finishing. Our finishing is deplorable and he's the only bloke on the shelf with a leg that can make half chances 6 points. 

The second in is tougher, I am not convinced it should be a tall.

Maybe on a dry deck up north, if so I'd be thinking M Brown. He will do the basics well, run to the right areas and likely kick straight if given a chance within reason. 

Elsewise Sparrow is a good option. Has done well enough with limited opportunity. 

Jones, I am afraid, is way to slow for a fast deck and lacks depth in his kicks now. Won't make a difference I feel. 

Harmes, ANB I wouldn't be against leaving them out but they might be worth another shot only because the options beyond those two are limited and with little to no exposed form.

[drdrake 3,178]

37 minutes ago, cantstandyasam said:

Bedford doesn't get involved enough, never has even at junior level - he's a bit player at the moment and will be till he gets more of the ball. 

Pickett gets the ball about 8 times a match, puts forward pressure on and kicks goals, Spargo gets it a bit more 10-14 times a game but each time he kicks it into our forward 50m arc I think that stat was we score 75% of the time ranked 2nd in the AFL.  Can Bedford or Chandler do a the same 10-15 touches forward pressure and help impact the scoreboard either off their own boot or setting up a score.

To me we are looking very robotic in the way we play no real dare or flare, it is almost like we play safe all the time rather than taking the game on, that to me has been to biggest change in our game.

Edited July 26, 2021 by drdrake

[Lord Nev 13,512]

4 minutes ago, drdrake said:

Pickett gets the ball about 8 times a match, puts forward pressure on and kicks goals, Spargo gets it a bit more 10-14 times a game but each time he kicks it into our forward 50m arc I think that stat was we score 75% of the time ranked 2nd in the AFL.  Can Bedford or Chandler do a the same 10-15 touches forward pressure and help impact the scoreboard either off their own boot or setting up a score.

For reference, average disposals this year:

Kozzy - 12.4
Spargo - 11.3

[dazzledavey36 54,999]

4 minutes ago, drdrake said:

Pickett gets the ball about 8 times a match, puts forward pressure on and kicks goals, Spargo gets it a bit more 10-14 times a game but each time he kicks it into our forward 50m arc I think that stat was we score 75% of the time ranked 2nd in the AFL.  Can Bedford or Chandler do a the same 10-15 touches forward pressure and help impact the scoreboard either off their own boot or setting up a score.

 

Pickett averages 12.3 disposal per game.

Spargo averages only 11.3 disposals per game.