What do we reckon 13 wins for finals?

Good to have one knocked off and 12 to go if that is the case. 

Looking at our draw - and the performance of Adelaide last weekend doesn't fill with me a high amount of confidence about banking those two wins. 

So that leaves me with the following split at this very early stage:

Probables

North in Tas - Round 7

Essendon - MCG - Round 15

GC - Metricon - Round 19

Possibles

St Kilda Round 2

Hawks Round 5

GWS - ACT - Round 3

Swans MCG - Round 8

Adelaide - SA - Round 10

Collingwood - Round 13

Giants - Round 16

Hawks - Round 18

Adelaide - Round 22

Unlikely

Richmond Round 6

Geelong - Round 4

Carlton - MCG - Round 9

Doggies - Round 11

Brisbane - Round 12

Port Adelaide - Round 17

Doggies - Round 20

West Coast - Round 21

Geelong - Round 23

Based on the above, i've applied a 50% win rate to the Possibles, and a 25% win rate for the Unlikely section.

This leaves our potential win count at: 3 probables, 4 possibles (rounding down), and 2 unlikely wins (again round down). That leaves us with 9 wins - or typically around 10th in a 23 round season. 

I've highlighted in ORANGE the possibles I think are most likely to be the 4 wins, and then in RED the possibles which shape as big swing games (ie getting our win rate above the 50% and potentially into the 8). Notably this week's St Kilda game shapes as one of those in my opinion. 

I've also highlighted in PURPLE in the probables the game I think is the biggest banana skin for the club thats the North Melbourne game in Tasmania.

In the Unlikely Section - i've highlighted in ORANGE the two games I think we could get unlikely wins in - and in RED again a game we might be able to win to get us into the 8. You'll see I quite like the look of the NT fixture with Brisbane - and we have had Carlton's measure last few years - but gee they looked better than us against a much better opposition. I think we could steal one of the Geelong fixtures - probably not the GMHBA fixture in round 23, because, well we know how this team performs under finals pressure at the end of the season. Round 4 with Danger still out looms as a big game for the MFC. 

So, long story short, I don't think we've got the wins to get there this year.  But, if we can beat Geelong in Rd 4, and St Kilda next round, we may give ourselves a fighting chance.

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 20214 yr by Altona-demon

@Altona-demon - love the endeavour in your post. Thorough, thorough thorough.

As the eternal optimist my alterations are below.

Probables

Geelong - Round 4

Hawks Round 5

North in Tas - Round 7

Carlton - MCG - Round 9

Adelaide - SA - Round 10

Collingwood - Round 13

Essendon - MCG - Round 15

Giants - Round 16

Hawks - Round 18

GC - Metricon - Round 19

 

I'll only leave these here purely because I think they're all gettable wins... that takes us to 10 wins ('yes including Adelaide Oval, and even more 'yes, I left out Adelaide at the G, because what we do is lose those ones)

But the beauty of reading this for me, is that nowhere throughout the season, do we win more than two games in a row, which of course creates that old familiar feeling that is synonymous when opening up this forum with... yeah - we won, but clearly we're not actually good enough.

 

Edited March 24, 20214 yr by Engorged Onion

Thanks for the kudos @Engorged Onion - appreciate it.

I agree with you - the takeaway I get from the review of the fixture list is as you say 10 - 12 wins at an optimistic level, which is edge of 8, and to be honest probably reflective of our trajectory as a club at the moment. 

Had we pulled a double header against for example North as opposed to Bulldogs - this could have had a significant impact on us making finals. But it still doesn't change the fact that the discussion is about making finals not about winning flags. 

The conclusion : based on previous performance, this group is not capable of winning the flag this year, and will be in the scrap for finals. I know not exactly rocket science there!

I like your observation on the Adelaide game at the "G" you are right, based on the past 4 years it certainly has tones of a banana skin for us, I can remember many of those games in the previous 3 years - I guess time will tell.

I'll revisit this post over time to keep it updated.

14+ wins to make the top seven, and then one lucky straggler will get in with 12.

We'll be in the 14+ if we can get through our first month without Brown and while building a few players back to match fitness after interruptions, and while getting an idea of who is actually suitable for what.

If things go badly in the first month to six weeks, they really could spiral out of control given the termites feeding on Goodwin all day, but if we survive that with our sanity we will likely be that 12-win sneak-in and then see what can be done.

Nice work but really difficult after just the one round to get a sense of every teams form. Maybe after 3-4 rounds we’ll have a better read.

The positive after one round is we have beaten a team that we lost to last year. So using last year as the base line we’re already ahead.

I think we’ll split the next 2 with Geelong looking very winnable now that they are without Danger. Start 3-1, build some momentum and we’re in good shape with BB and the Weid to return.

  On 24/03/2021 at 07:42, Altona-demon said:

 

 

 

 

We’ll win 16 games, possibly 18

Wins 

Freo

GWS

Geelong

Hawks

North

Swans

Carlton

Adelaide

Collingwood

Essendon

Giants

Port

Hawks

GC

West Coast

Adelaide

Geelong

I’ve listed 17 and I reckon we’ll roll the Doggies once

We’ll finish third and go on to win the Premiership 

Edited March 24, 20214 yr by Roost it far

12s usually the magic number.

We've already beaten Fremantle, so if we now beat the same teams that we beat last year, then that’s 12 wins and in the 8!

 

One week at a time pls

If we start the season 3-1 I  reckon we’ll play finals as it would’ve meant we’ve beaten a probable top 4 side in St Kilda and/or Geelong AND we then have a month of footy against last years bottom 8 sides from round 7. 

(although you could argue it’s the bottom sides and the lack of respect we show them that is the main cause for us missing finals under Goodwin)

13 wins will get us in. 12 with a good percentage.

Top 8 would be nice and could be 12 wins. But let’s be honest, if your not top 4 you don’t have much chance of a flag. 

It doesn't change much

14 gets you well into the 5-8 group

13 gets you into 6-8

12 gets you 7-10

Frankly I want 17....

The MC would want to win every game that we contest and if we can get all or most of our best players on the field (and firing) then any game is a potential win

But in my view our biggest weak point is not having a functioning forward line often enough ... so the MC needs to come up with a forward line that can help us win games. Certainly against the teams where we've got a relatively good chance of winning

Right now if T-Mac,  Gawn and/or LJ aren't influential up forward, we're going to be up against it.  Our medium talls and smalls up forward wouldn't be able to get us over the line against the best teams and even  against the lesser lights it's a big ask without the Key bigs up forward firing

But all the best teams can have an off day so that's a factor as well.  We're going to need to win 3-4 games against the top 8 teams as we can't be expected to win all the games against lesser opposition (the teams below the top echelon generally have more 'off' days)

I'd rather look at the number 8 as the magic number ... i.e. a maximum of 8 losses only

14 wins and we'll play finals ... 16 will get a team a top 4 spot but we're a ways off being that good

How long is a 10-15 cm piece of string... ?

Edited March 24, 20214 yr by John Demonic

If we are relying on making the finals by beating the weaker teams, some of them twice and maybe pinching the odd game against a potential top eight side we might as well shut up shop now. The next four rounds being Saints, GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn are all very winnable games, we could be going into Anzac eve 5 & 0. From memory we gave Brisbane a good run for two and a half quarters last year, can’t remember what happened against the dogs.

As many as we get but with a better percentage.

At full strength I’d say 17 wins very possible, so the next month until we are has become crucial. The fact this group has matured to know every game counts (as well as percentage) plus our depth meaning there will likely be competition for spots all year bodes well.

Once (and if) we can get our best 22 all fit and firing for a month or two we are well capable of beating anyone.

Oath, the only way this way this team progresses to finals is by having a solid block somewhere throughout the year of winning several games in a row. 

If we can't do that, Goodwin has failed in my view. We are in that prime age spot with most of our top tier talent. 

As Bombay says, we should be giving absolutely everything to this first month so we can gather some momentum. 

If we're fair dinkum we're either 4-1 or 5-0 by round five. All of those games are winnable. And we should be putting everything into them. 

  On 24/03/2021 at 07:42, Altona-demon said:

What do we reckon 13 wins for finals?

Good to have one knocked off and 12 to go if that is the case. 

Looking at our draw - and the performance of Adelaide last weekend doesn't fill with me a high amount of confidence about banking those two wins. 

So that leaves me with the following split at this very early stage:

Probables

North in Tas - Round 7

Essendon - MCG - Round 15

GC - Metricon - Round 19

Possibles

St Kilda Round 2

Hawks Round 5

GWS - ACT - Round 3

Swans MCG - Round 8

Adelaide - SA - Round 10

Collingwood - Round 13

Giants - Round 16

Hawks - Round 18

Adelaide - Round 22

Unlikely

Richmond Round 6

Geelong - Round 4

Carlton - MCG - Round 9

Doggies - Round 11

Brisbane - Round 12

Port Adelaide - Round 17

Doggies - Round 20

West Coast - Round 21

Geelong - Round 23

Based on the above, i've applied a 50% win rate to the Possibles, and a 25% win rate for the Unlikely section.

This leaves our potential win count at: 3 probables, 4 possibles (rounding down), and 2 unlikely wins (again round down). That leaves us with 9 wins - or typically around 10th in a 23 round season. 

I've highlighted in ORANGE the possibles I think are most likely to be the 4 wins, and then in RED the possibles which shape as big swing games (ie getting our win rate above the 50% and potentially into the 8). Notably this week's St Kilda game shapes as one of those in my opinion. 

I've also highlighted in PURPLE in the probables the game I think is the biggest banana skin for the club thats the North Melbourne game in Tasmania.

In the Unlikely Section - i've highlighted in ORANGE the two games I think we could get unlikely wins in - and in RED again a game we might be able to win to get us into the 8. You'll see I quite like the look of the NT fixture with Brisbane - and we have had Carlton's measure last few years - but gee they looked better than us against a much better opposition. I think we could steal one of the Geelong fixtures - probably not the GMHBA fixture in round 23, because, well we know how this team performs under finals pressure at the end of the season. Round 4 with Danger still out looms as a big game for the MFC. 

So, long story short, I don't think we've got the wins to get there this year.  But, if we can beat Geelong in Rd 4, and St Kilda next round, we may give ourselves a fighting chance.

 

 

 

 

Good news AD,  since you posted after the Round 1 win we have knocked off 2 from the possibles column (GWS, Saints)  and 1 from the unlikely column  (Cats).

  On 24/03/2021 at 21:53, JimmyGadson said:

Oath, the only way this way this team progresses to finals is by having a solid block somewhere throughout the year of winning several games in a row. 

If we can't do that, Goodwin has failed in my view. We are in that prime age spot with most of our top tier talent. 

As Bombay says, we should be giving absolutely everything to this first month so we can gather some momentum. 

If we're fair dinkum we're either 4-1 or 5-0 by round five. All of those games are winnable. And we should be putting everything into them. 

I’d say we’re fair dinkum, with an undercurrent of crumbling ??‍♂️

One more than the team that finishes 9th.

Since the comp became 18 teams:

2012 - 14 wins without percentage

2013- 12 wins without percentage. I’m not factoring in Carlton’s 11 wins default entry

2014 - 12 without percentage 

2015 - 13 without percentage 

2016 - 12 with percentage 

2017 - 12 with percentage (the year we missed out on percentage)

2018 - 13 without percentage 

2019 - 12 without percentage 

2020 - I don’t consider this a proper season of footy.

So in conclusion, 12 with a good percentage of 13 to be absolutely safe.

 

  On 24/03/2021 at 10:51, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If we start the season 3-1 I  reckon we’ll play finals as it would’ve meant we’ve beaten a probable top 4 side in St Kilda

This post did not age well.

  On 16/04/2021 at 20:51, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Since the comp became 18 teams:

2012 - 14 wins without percentage

2013- 12 wins without percentage. I’m not factoring in Carlton’s 11 wins default entry

2014 - 12 without percentage 

2015 - 13 without percentage 

2016 - 12 with percentage 

2017 - 12 with percentage (the year we missed out on percentage)

2018 - 13 without percentage 

2019 - 12 without percentage 

2020 - I don’t consider this a proper season of footy.

So in conclusion, 12 with a good percentage of 13 to be absolutely safe.

 

How many wins to get Top 4?

  On 16/04/2021 at 10:09, old dee said:

One more than the team that finishes 9th.

What if they have 2 draws and better percentage. 

  On 16/04/2021 at 21:44, Deestroy All said:

What if they have 2 draws and better percentage. 

Then we are in 9th.