CHANGES: Rd 11 vs North Melbourne

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

Of the North games I've seen they are playing 'trench warfare'.  Zero game plan.  No intention to win.  Play to hurt. 

Throw in that 4-5 of their best players are out injured and if Majak doesn't play, they don't have much of a fwd line or ruck support.  Expect them to double down on the 'trench warfare'. 

Forget playing 'our way'.  They will drag us down into the trenches for arm-to-arm combat. 

 

In terms of selections this week. given that we have a game 6 days later we should:

• not confirm speculation on who has an injury;  a mistake with Gawn as it allowed Crows to target that shoulder.  
• rest someone with and injury; not worth the risk to make it worse. 
• look at resting players with recent high game time especially mid-fielders.  I note that Petracca has played (most recent first) 92%, 90%, 95%, 91%, 89% in the last 6 games; the most recent on short breaks.  He is a strong lad but gee I'd hate to seem him worked into the ground. 

I want us to win and I think we will but player welfare is important, especially as the AFL is likely to condense rounds 13 to 15. 

Its one thing for Burgess and co to condition players for a condensed season but 7 rounds compacted into 4 weeks is gruelling.  Throw in a future trip to Alice and no bye  like other clubs get and I think we have to be more circumspect in team selections.

Edit:  AFL to condense rnds 14-16 and we play Ess during that time!  All the more reason to select fresh, fit players now and avoid players burn out.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[chook fowler 18,174]

Rhys Shaw looks like one of the Beagle Boys - and with as much brain power 

[Diamond_Jim 11,679]

23 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Forget playing 'our way'.  They will drag us down into the trenches for arm-to-arm combat. 

Agree. Have a look at how they beat GWS. Constant scragging and push the game to the boundary.

Denial of the corridor has become a feature of this season and has contributed to the low scores.If a skilled team such as GWS can't break into the corridor we have no chance.

The way to beat North is rolling maul about twenty metres inside the boundary with Footscray like handballs/throws

[PaulRB 5,897]

I'm for minimal changes.

Assuming ANB reported and out, would bring in Pickett for him

Gawn and Viney, give them up to 10 min before game to get and feel ready.

Must beat teams like North if we're going to keep out season alive. No point holding anything back.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Viney our would hurt, he’s been great this year. But the silver lining is that if there is any position we have coverage for, it’s for an inside mid.

[Half forward flank 1,022]

Wise heads please

We know from experience Viney will say he is ready to play. 

Max too will want to be out there.

Burgess final say please.

[Redleg 37,478]

7 minutes ago, Half forward flank said:

 

Burgess final say please.

No, surely we on DL know better.

[old dee 22,815]

10 minutes ago, Redleg said:

No, surely we on DL know better.

Absolutely based on the crap selections of round 2 through 4.

[binman 37,793]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

Obviously the prices have not been framed by a Dees supporter I would have the betting at  even money. 
I hope they are correct.

The reason why the odds are such an accurate guide to probable outcomes is that once the market is initially framed by the bookmakers the market (ie punters placing bets), which is by in large objective, determines the odds. The bigger the market (tie the more money, the more punters) the more reliable those odds are. 

The odds were framed Wednesday, but even after the market has responded (though the bulk of the bets will come tomorrow and Sunday) we are still $1.50 favorites.

By the by, not surprisingly given all the variables, the results have been very volatile this season in terms of the odds reflecting outcomes. This meant there was lots of value to be had so far, if you could find it.

That is starting to change now and normal transmission seems to be restored with favorites winning most games in the last 2 weeks and fewer upsets. The ladder is starting to reflect that shift.

[old dee 22,815]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

The reason why the odds are such an accurate guide to probable outcomes is that once the market is initially framed by the bookmakers the market (ie punters placing bets), which is by in large objective, determines the odds. The bigger the market (tie the more money, the more punters) the more reliable those odds are. 

The odds were framed Wednesday, but even after the market has responded (though the bulk of the bets will come tomorrow and Sunday) we are still $1.50 favorites.

By the by, not surprisingly given all the variables, the results have been very volatile this season in terms of the odds reflecting outcomes. This meant there was lots of value to be had so far, if you could find it.

That is starting to change now and normal transmission seems to be restored with favorites winning most games in the last 2 weeks and fewer upsets. The ladder is starting to reflect that shift.

I know a dees supporter who backed the crows on Wednesday. I told him I would hold his bet. But he said I don't want to take your money. I almost got the double a win and the money. 

Edited August 7, 2020 by old dee

[old55 21,216]

20 minutes ago, old dee said:

Absolutely based on the crap selections of round 2 through 4.

Then we finally woke up and picked your favourite Weed?

[old dee 22,815]

4 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Then we finally woke up and picked your favourite Weed?

Yes I was calling for him for weeks. Two wins Spargo has not played for some time.

Edited August 7, 2020 by old dee

[Vagg 2,422]

Anyone know when the Teams are announced?

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

2 minutes ago, Vagg said:

Anyone know when the Teams are announced?

Tomorrow night

[Vagg 2,422]

1 minute ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Tomorrow night

Is that right?  Just 24 hrs before the game?  Seems rather short.  But, it's a strange season, so guess I shouldn't be surprised...

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

4 minutes ago, Vagg said:

Is that right?  Just 24 hrs before the game?  Seems rather short.  But, it's a strange season, so guess I shouldn't be surprised...

Been the same for every game during this 'Festival of footy'.   Always 6.25 PM the night before the game.

I imagine next week it will go back to Thursday night teams.

[Diamond_Jim 11,679]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

Absolutely based on the crap selections of round 2 through 4.

Agree... there is little doubt that selection cost us the Geelong game and possibly the Richmond game.

 

[Demons11 6,404]

Is Vanders injured again?

[Young Blood 1,975]

16 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

Is Vanders injured again?

Had another nasty head knock which resulted in 15 stitches above the eye. Same side as the fractured cheek.

He'll be fine

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,381]

21 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

Is Vanders injured again?

I've just gone to the Urban Dictionary to see if "vanders" or "vandenberg" has been included in the dictionary as part of the explanation of the meaning "harder than a cat's head". It hasn't, though it probably should be.

If you go to that page you'll see a direct reference and link to AFL. The fifth* definition of AFL in Urban Dictionary is, um, unusual and unexpected.

*It's numbered as the fifth, but it's actually the sixth.

[Cyclops 434]

If Gawn and Viney are out, who to tosses the coin?

[Dannyz 2,301]

13 minutes ago, Cyclops said:

If Gawn and Viney are out, who to tosses the coin?

I've been told it's Melksham 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,106]

On 8/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, Pollyanna said:

This is probably the only match North want to win for the rest of the season so they drive our pick earlier.  They'll be up and about.

Other than that they are tanking hard to finish 17th below Freo and Sydney.

There's a lot of teams that tank but North aren't one of them.

Let me give you a history lesson:

North played Brisbane Lions in round 23 2017 (that same horrid day we lost to the Pies) at the GABBA in front of barely a North fan. All North had to do was lose to 18th place Brisbane and pick 1 was in their lap.

They were 5 goals to 1 down at qtr time. They then proceeded to kick 18 of the next 24 goals to win by 50 points.

That mob simply doesn't tank.

I also agree with you in that they'll be primed for Sunday night.

[Docs Demons 1,656]

2 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Been the same for every game during this 'Festival of footy'.   Always 6.25 PM the night before the game.

I imagine next week it will go back to Thursday night teams.

Not yet as the next round starts this Saturday, late afternoon, finishes next Wednesday then round 12 starts next Thursday. Suspect teams will be out the day before for next 2 rounds at least.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,089]

9 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

There's a lot of teams that tank but North aren't one of them.

Let me give you a history lesson:

North played Brisbane Lions in round 23 2017 (that same horrid day we lost to the Pies) at the GABBA in front of barely a North fan. All North had to do was lose to 18th place Brisbane and pick 1 was in their lap.

They were 5 goals to 1 down at qtr time. They then proceeded to kick 18 of the next 24 goals to win by 50 points.

That mob simply doesn't tank.

I also agree with you in that they'll be primed for Sunday night.

They have our first round pick in the draft this year too. Plenty of reason to win this match in particular for them,  not to mention they've owned us for well over a decade. 

Still,  I expect a win!