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Free Kick Differential Since 2012

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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Wow the Dogs did get an armchair ride in their Premiership year. 

At least the umps appear to have eased up in the West since the media spoke about the "noise of affirmation "or whatever it was called.

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    Guessing Dogs #2 on Champion Data includes umpiring.

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    35 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

    Guessing Dogs #2 on Champion Data includes umpiring.

    These stats are interesting and the differentials are most annoying in first analysis. Care is given to certain teams and the majority of teams make up their rewards. This has little to do with the even playing field that umpiring should be providing.

    It must also be considered that it is not just the number of free kicks that are (nowadays) traditionally awarded and/not awarded in the realm of such 'officiating' care; it is more important to analyse those frees that:

    • make or break the winning of a game for a particular team in 'care' (for example, where and when the free kick was awarded) 
    • and did it/ did it not affect the outcome of the game as a result - ie: assured winners/assured losers
    • or even, force a team to lose a game or to provide 'eveners' between the sides to enhance the 'spectacle' from the AFL points of view?

    This is not cynical; this is a feature of our game these days.

    Edited by Deemania since 56

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    First to the ball, eyes on the ball generally get the frees. 

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    • Haha 1

    West Coast.

    Would love to see the Home/Away breakdown.

    Those Perth umpires deserve a bullet.

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    • Like 4
     

    What's probably most interesting is that there was the "freekickhawthorn" hashtag going around but boy the dogs got a incredible run in 2016, and looking at WC who haven't been in negative figures in the last 16 years, though that doesn't surprise me given the times you witness opposition players get their heads taken off with no free kick and yet they'll get the lightest touch on the shoulder (while dropping their knees) and get a free kick every time.

    It would be interesting to know the Eagle's differential away from home because it wouldn't surprise me if that's positive as well.

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    • Like 1
    2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

    These stats are interesting and the differentials are most annoying in first analysis. Care is given to certain teams and the majority of teams make up their rewards. This has little to do with the even playing field that umpiring should be providing.

    It must also be considered that it is not just the number of free kicks that are (nowadays) traditionally awarded and/not awarded in the realm of such 'officiating' care; it is more important to analyse those frees that:

    • make or break the winning of a game for a particular team in 'care' (for example, where and when the free kick was awarded) 
    • and did it/ did it not affect the outcome of the game as a result - ie: assured winners/assured losers
    • or even, force a team to lose a game or to provide 'eveners' between the sides to enhance the 'spectacle' from the AFL points of view?

    This is not cynical; this is a feature of our game these days.

    Also the frees that should have been paid but weren't.  Those can have just as great an impact on results and how the game is played.  Imagine how different the game would be today is Scott West was called for throwing the ball. 

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    2 hours ago, SPC said:

    First to the ball, eyes on the ball generally get the frees. 

    You missed something 'SPC'...

    2 hours ago, SPC said:

    First to the ball, eyes on the ball and "West Coast at home"   ....generally get the frees. 

     

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    10 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

    Also the frees that should have been paid but weren't.  Those can have just as great an impact on results and how the game is played.  Imagine how different the game would be today is Scott West was called for throwing the ball. 

    You are correct. Regretfully, there are still many ways yet to be mentioned for umpires to affect game outcomes. What is good for the goose, ain't necessarily good for the gander. 

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    12 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

    Also the frees that should have been paid but weren't.  Those can have just as great an impact on results and how the game is played.  Imagine how different the game would be today is Scott West was called for throwing the ball. 

    Yes.  It would be interesting to see the numbers for the individual umpires. 

    There are at least 2 who never call anything other than "play on" the whole and every game. 

    And  if we knew the numbers for the W.A. based umpires I suspect it would show an even more lop sided number in favour of the home sides.

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    The mind blowing stat in that table is what in the hell happened with GWS in 2019.

    It is an outlier that blows the bell curve wide open.

    You would also expect teams to go positive and negative on  a year by year basis. The ones that don't are the ones you need look at. Other than North and West Coast (both positive) and GWS (negative) the rest on  a quick look appear unremarkable.

    Edited by Diamond_Jim

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    West Coast and Collingwood both "Crowd Frees" with a touch of scare tactics and favouritism....

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    16 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

    These stats are interesting and the differentials are most annoying in first analysis. Care is given to certain teams and the majority of teams make up their rewards. This has little to do with the even playing field that umpiring should be providing.

    It must also be considered that it is not just the number of free kicks that are (nowadays) traditionally awarded and/not awarded in the realm of such 'officiating' care; it is more important to analyse those frees that:

    • make or break the winning of a game for a particular team in 'care' (for example, where and when the free kick was awarded) 
    • and did it/ did it not affect the outcome of the game as a result - ie: assured winners/assured losers
    • or even, force a team to lose a game or to provide 'eveners' between the sides to enhance the 'spectacle' from the AFL points of view?

    This is not cynical; this is a feature of our game these days.

    Free kicks which resulted at a shot on goal would be interesting.

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    1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    The mind blowing stat in that table is what in the hell happened with GWS in 2019.

    It is an outlier that blows the bell curve wide open.

    You would also expect teams to go positive and negative on  a year by year basis. The ones that don't are the ones you need look at. Other than North and West Coast (both positive) and GWS (negative) the rest on  a quick look appear unremarkable.

    Simple answer: Shane Mumford....

    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/mumford-seeks-help-from-umpires-to-fix-free-kick-woes-20190919-p52sy7.html

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    • Thanks 2

    This is why I hate when people say "it will all even out in the end" as an excuse to not use technology to make sure better decisions are made.  Yes, the technology has to be good enough to truly assist, but "evening out in the end" is a statistical anomaly, not a norm.

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    I believe the AFL assigned experienced non-WA umpires to WC home games a few years ago to stem the clear bias the crowd "BOO!" was causing and their free advantage has moderated.

    GWS deliberately played pretty unsociable football this year so it's no surprise their differential was up.  Beveredge was bleating about it after this year's final.  Unsurprisingly he made no comments when the Dogs threw the ball all 2016 and got the greatest armchair ride in that year's GF.

    Having said all that, AFL football is extremely difficult to umpire and the abuse umpires get is a total disgrace.  Grand Final umpires are booed when they are announced on gameday!  

    Edited by Fifty-5

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    FFS, I love bagging umpires as much as anyone, but in reality maybe 1 game in 100 is decided in any meaningful way by controversial decisions. It's a bloody hard game to umpire, and good umpiring doesn't equate to a 50/50 split of free kicks. Could it be better? Of course, but umpires aren't on the long list of reasons we haven't won a flag since man first walked on the moon.

    I love how these lists provide conclusive proof that the likes of Collingwood get an armchair ride, while we conveniently ignore the fact that the equally feral Essendon and Richmond fans don't seem to influence umpires in their games.

    I'll concede the WC trend is clearly fckd though (for those interested, the chances of obtaining a positive free kick differential for 17 consecutive seasons are roughly 7.5 in a million if umpiring is unbiased).

     

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    6 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    the chances of obtaining a positive free kick differential for 17 consecutive seasons are roughly 7.5 in a million if umpiring is unbiased).

    I would hope that that numerical assessment is fact - it truly proves a point if that is the case, let alone the 'general' indication that the longitudinal positive free kick differential over such a long time might assert without deep scrutiny. 

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    9 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    FFS, I love bagging umpires as much as anyone, but in reality maybe 1 game in 100 is decided in any meaningful way by controversial decisions. It's a bloody hard game to umpire, and good umpiring doesn't equate to a 50/50 split of free kicks. Could it be better? Of course, but umpires aren't on the long list of reasons we haven't won a flag since man first walked on the moon.

    I love how these lists provide conclusive proof that the likes of Collingwood get an armchair ride, while we conveniently ignore the fact that the equally feral Essendon and Richmond fans don't seem to influence umpires in their games.

    I'll concede the WC trend is clearly fckd though (for those interested, the chances of obtaining a positive free kick differential for 17 consecutive seasons are roughly 7.5 in a million if umpiring is unbiased).

     

    I'd love to see your calculations sir.

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    40 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    I'll concede the WC trend is clearly fckd though (for those interested, the chances of obtaining a positive free kick differential for 17 consecutive seasons are roughly 7.5 in a million if umpiring is unbiased).

     

    Assuming the odds in any one year are one in two of being positive or negative, the odds of 17 years positive are around one in 65,000 (I think)

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    • Like 1

    How bad would have Geelong’s free kick differential been without Duckwood? WC have their well known maggot parasites but their positive differential is Bradmanesque in magnitude and almost 95% better than next best North. Fremantle playing at same ground have one of the worst negative differentials and don’t appear to get any home town favouritism at all so I don’t put too much weight on the crowd effect. Something stinks.

    Edited by america de cali

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