Farewell to Our First Pick in 2020

[Jaded No More 67,875]

Just now, Kelpien said:

Just playing devil's advocate here but what if we finish bottom next year?

Then we are [censored] in more ways than one. 

[—coach— 3,496]

1 minute ago, Kelpien said:

Just playing devil's advocate here but what if we finish bottom next year?

Then we sack the club and start a new one from scratch

[Cam Schwab's Whiteboard 209]

4 minutes ago, Kelpien said:

Just playing devil's advocate here but what if we finish bottom next year?

If we finish bottom next year, none of this matters anyway...

[Demon Dynasty 17,098]

18 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Freo will take Jackson with their first pick

I hope so SD.  I was referring to Olisk's comment that Freo will snatch Stephens with their first pick (7) as they are after two wingman.  I was suggesting they might not need two with chatter suggesting they are in talks with Aish from the Pies.

They are still in the box seat for Stephens with 7 though given that Aish wont be coming across for that pick.  What makes you think they'll go for Jackson over Stephens?

[rjay 24,618]

1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

I like it.

If recruiters are spooked by Brodie Kemp's knee injury and he's still there at pick 8, this'll be a huge win.  Kemp then takes next year to recover and hit's 2021 as a new top 5 recruit. 

Failing that - Caleb Serong.

Pick 3 on Young and we'll be well set.

Makes sense to me that we had a specific target wanting 2 picks in the top 10.

Kemp is the logical one.

[old dee 23,506]

10 minutes ago, Kelpien said:

Just playing devil's advocate here but what if we finish bottom next year?

Amalgamate with GCS or move to Tassie.

[Clintosaurus 7,584]

10 minutes ago, rjay said:

Makes sense to me that we had a specific target wanting 2 picks in the top 10.

Kemp is the logical one.

I very much hope it is Kemp. Generally not too many surprises in the top 10 so Kemp and Serong/Flanders would be brilliant.

[dworship 3,342]

51 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

I don't believe that's correct regarding pick 8 having to be a rookie upgrade. The draft is basically endless, until all clubs are done. At this point we have no 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks (I think that's right, but doesn't really matter), so if we need to make a 3rd pick it happens in a 5th round, be it rookie upgrade or new draftee. We may or may not be the only club left standing at that point, but until all clubs are finished drafting players, it just goes on and on.

I knew it was going to be difficult to explain, I mentioned pick 8 because it is currently our last pick. It doesn't matter about rounds either.

A club could have 88,89 and 90 as the only picks they have and use them to upgrade 3 rookies or take 3 draftees. The big point is we have to use 3 and we need to have 3 to do that, hence it isn't over.

 

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

9 minutes ago, dworship said:

I knew it was going to be difficult to explain, I mentioned pick 8 because it is currently our last pick. It doesn't matter about rounds either.

A club could have 88,89 and 90 as the only picks they have and use them to upgrade 3 rookies or take 3 draftees. The big point is we have to use 3 and we need to have 3 to do that, hence it isn't over.

 

Pick 8 is our 2nd pick. We can use a 3rd pick in any later round where we have a pick. The draft doesn't stop until all clubs are done. We can do a rookie upgrade in round 6, 7, 8, or whenever our 3rd pick falls. If we had more list spots available we could even choose players in round 9, 10, or 11.

I assume you're looking at the AFL's indicative draft order as a guide? That only goes up to round 5, but that's not the end of the draft if clubs are still making picks.

E.G. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_AFL_draft

In which draft round to Jarrod Garlett get picked by Carlton?

We can go to the draft with these 2 first rounders. I think it's likely we will be looking for a further trade, however we don't technically have to.

Edited October 15, 2019 by FireInTheBelly
Addition

[KingDingAling 3,740]

Pick 8 is a perfect pick this year. It will fall at the right time to nab whoever sides to it. From all reports, the quality of the draft peters out after 10-12. Pick 26 would be really hit and miss this year, and in all likelihood it wouldn't be very useful. The quality really is said to taper off early. I have heard that from a handful of knowledgeable draft folk. What matters more than points indexes is drafting the right player. Hopefully we have a player in mind. I like the trade.

[Bay Riffin 1,454]

2 hours ago, The Stigga said:

This point system is garbage

Anything over pick 15-20 is tattslotto

We currently have two picks inside the top 10

For pick 26 and next year first (pick 50 just does not count)

So say we finish 9, meaning pick 9, after academy selection will be more like 15/16 

Don't understand how people are complaining about random picks like 26 and 50, which after academy selections this year are more like 28 and 52!

because you can turn at 20s pick into Melksham, Hibberd, Forst, Fritsch types. They are definitely worth something. Its like you are saying their is the first round then the rest is a lottery.

[DeeSpencer 24,805]

26 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I don't get this logic.

You'd rather us pick once in the first round and once in the second round, than twice in the first round, because you want "depth"?

We can create "depth" by bringing two top 10 kids onto our list.

Taking out pick 50 we just gave up 2 useful picks (26 and a future first) for 1 pick. We did the same with the Oliver/Weideman deal - giving up the Howe pick and a future first for Weideman. We gave up a lot of useful picks for short term help when rebuilding (Vince, Hibberd) and a really valuable pick for Frosty and junk picks that have failed us (ANB, Stretch). 

I just think we don't value getting multiple quality shots at the draft. Not only does it give you more rolls of the dice it also strengthens the list by bringing in high quality prospects who have good healthy fit bodies and skills. Rather than later picks who are often guys with attributes but weaknesses who need a lot of work to get up to scratch. 

We started this trade period with pick 22. I thought great, we can see who falls out of the first round or we might be able to trade that back like teams did last year and bank another second rounder. Instead we've chewed it up completely with a little on Langdon and moving next years pick to this year and assuming a big risk/reward. That doesn't seem like maximising the value of the pick. If pick 8 flops then we've thrown away a 2nd rounder for nothing. 

By depth I don't mean useful VFL players who can play a few handy games, I mean the wave of talent in those 10th-20th spots on the list who do their job week after week. We've traded for Tomlinson and Langdon because we hope they can be those kind of players but how many others like that do we have on the list? Not nearly enough. 

[whatwhat say what 22,237]

3 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

really valuable pick for Frosty and junk picks that have failed us (ANB, Stretch). 

don't think anb is a failure at all; he's best 22 for us because he's one of few forwards who applies defensive pressure

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,403]

Will the probable delistings of Stretch and JFK give us additional picks in the national draft of will they be used for rookie upgrades?

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

2 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

don't think anb is a failure at all; he's best 22 for us because he's one of few forwards who applies defensive pressure

I tend to agree with you, however he seriously needs to work on his kicking. If he does that he could be a weapon.

[DeeZee 7,302]

Might trade one of Stretch and JKH to the suns tomorrow for a third round pick 

Edited October 15, 2019 by DeeZee

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

Going on @Lucifer's Herocontracts thread, the following are our rookies. (Thanks Lucifer)

Rookie List:

• Chandler:  re-contract
• Dunkley:  re-contract
• Lockhart:  re-contract
• Bradke: re-contract

If we're running with the 2 first round picks are we a possibility to upgrade Lockhart as our 3rd pick? I can't see the others as being upgrade candidates at this point.

 

 

[DeeSpencer 24,805]

2 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

don't think anb is a failure at all; he's best 22 for us because he's one of few forwards who applies defensive pressure

He's also really really bad. Awful decision making and approach to the contest. That he's managed to be a useful player who's racked up a lot of games has only prolonged the pain.

I feel like had we had more picks in the 20's and 30's over the last 5 years we'd have got more Fritsch's (high talent, high upside, needs to round out his game) and more ANB's but with enough polish to be long term players (good foot soldiers, always fit and healthy, plays every week ie. guys like Harmes or Langdon). 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,098]

27 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

because you can turn at 20s pick into Melksham, Hibberd, Forst, Fritsch types. They are definitely worth something. Its like you are saying their is the first round then the rest is a lottery.

We need to try and hit one or two A graders in the draft BR.  It's the difference between a bog ordinary team that might win a few close matches each year and a few easy ones (eg; 6 to 10) and a team that can match some of the big boys on an occasional basis and push into the top eight more often.

Besides, Clarry & Big M (along with a dew others, including us!) deserve and demand some respect here.

We need to move past mediocre to occasional good years into very good and hopefully one or two outstanding ones in the next 3 to 5 years or so.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[TheoX 1,220]

Mahoney's lost the [censored] plot. Has he been promised a job at North or something?

[Whispering_Jack 29,259]

3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

How does this change things in terms of having additional leverage over GWS WJ?

The fact that we are holding a pick not much further down the line from pick 3 increases the logic of nominating Tom Green. If GWS want to be assured of getting two first round players, they have to have control of pick 3 so it makes sense for them to offer us 6 ++ and maybe another + to achieve that outcome.

[Kent 2,863]

40 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

don't think anb is a failure at all; he's best 22 for us because he's one of few forwards who applies defensive pressure

Disagree completely

Anb shouldn't be on the list

Zero skills bar running up and down the field for very little effect

But that is only my opinion

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,098]

40 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

Might trade one of Stretch and JKH to the suns tomorrow for a third round pick 

 

Posted this in the Mahoney on radio thread a little while back.....

..."So we split pick 3 for say 6 and about 25?  Use 6 to ensure we nab Stephens who, outside of Rowell & Anderson, looks like the must get jet.  Another run & gun outside mid to eventually join Langdon, replacing Stretch as depth on the list (initially), till he finds his feet.

Then grab Weightman with 8 as the small (walk up?) classy small forward.

We are then still left with a 25ish pick."...

Thoughts?

Edited October 15, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,098]

9 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

The fact that we are holding a pick not much further down the line from pick 3 increases the logic of nominating Tom Green. If GWS want to be assured of getting two first round players, they have to have control of pick 3 so it makes sense for them to offer us 6 ++ and maybe another + to achieve that outcome.

That seems to fit with the above 

[george_on_the_outer 7,435]

44 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Will the probable delistings of Stretch and JFK give us additional picks in the national draft of will they be used for rookie upgrades?

Yes. Or we convince someone else to take them for a pick.  Rookie list is almost irrelevant now, so matters little if they are on that or the main list.