https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/02/24/nick-riewoldt-names-the-top-10-key-forwards-in-the-competition

10. Tom McDonald - Melbourne

Goals kicked in 2018: 53

“He’s a player who this time last year wouldn’t have been on the list because he was a centre half back, but he had a great last half to the season. I think he’s going to thrive being the main man. It’s different when you’re a swingman."

6. Jesse Hogan - Fremantle

Goals kicked in 2018: 47

“I’m looking forward. I think he’ll be the sixth best key forward this year. He didn’t look happy his last few at Melbourne. He’s gone home, he’ll fit in beautifully over there. They’ll structure the game-plan around him.”

1. Lance Franklin - Sydney

2. Josh Kennedy - West Coast

3. Jack Riewoldt - Richmond

4. Tom Lynch - Richmond

5. Tom Hawkins - Geelong

6. Jesse Hogan - Fremantle

7. Jeremy Cameron - GWS

8. Jordan de Goey - Collingwood

9. Ben Brown - North Melbourne

10. Tom McDonald - Melbourne

What do you think of Nick's list?

I'd have Tom higher on the list. Certainly higher than Jessie. Had Tom played all games last year and maintained his average he would have come very close to winning the Coleman. I reckon he has a great chance of taking it out this year. Despite being a fan of Jessie and knowing the talent he possess I've never been confident to say he'd get even close to taking out the Coleman.

Sure this list isn't just about goal kicking but I think Jessie is rated higher than his form warrants.

Not sure Nick has his facts right.  Tom started playing forward in mid 2017.  This time last year he was injured but when he did play it was as a forward.  So he has been a forward (not a swingman) for the best of 18 months.

Reckon there are some biases in his top 10 rankings.  But he is right about Tom thriving this year being the main man. 

Agree that Tom can win the Coleman this year, especially if the high level of forward deliveries are more accurate than the past.  Dittto don't see Jessie winning it especially as he seems to be playing a high forward/mid role at Freo.

Tmac wont mind that if we were to win the flag this year.

Hogan's team will likely finish bottom 5. 

Tmac's team is pegged to finish top 3.

The rest is fugazi.

Edited February 25, 20196 yr by Moonshadow

Yes to TMac winning the Coleman.

• Won't play in the ruck at all i wouldn't have thought (except for some forward 50 throw ins)
• Hogan won't take goals off him (though he will get the opposition's best defender),
• He uses his hands a lot to push players so that rule change will help him
• Any increase in one on one marking opportunities as a result of other rule changes will help him
• He is the best kick for goal of any forward
• We are the highest scoring team in the league, a trend that i have little doubt will continue this year
• We will win more games this year and therefore kick more goals
• If the rule changes do make blow outs more common (which i'm not convinced about) we could kick some big scores this year

By the by currently $10 on Sportsbet so reasonable value and worth a flutter if you are that way inclined. Daniher is $12 which is ridiculously short given he practically didn't play last year and bombers will struggle this year. Kennedy and Franklin share favoritism at $5. Also way too short as that price would be fair enough if they play the whole season but a lot has to go right for that to occur. A bookies sucker punch, akin to long range bets on favorites for the Melbourne Cup.

Edited February 25, 20196 yr by binman

Nick's comments that Hogan looked so unhappy over the last two years. Really, I couldn't guess why. Then to say now that he is at home he is far more settled. Such lightweight comments. 

What odds will you give me Nick?

 

56 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Not sure Nick has his facts right.  Tom started playing forward in mid 2017.  This time last year he was injured but when he did play it was as a forward.  So he has been a forward (not a swingman) for the best of 18 months.

Reckon there are some biases in his top 10 rankings.  But he is right about Tom thriving this year being the main man. 

Agree that Tom can win the Coleman this year, especially if the high level of forward deliveries are more accurate than the past.  Dittto don't see Jessie winning it especially as he seems to be playing a high forward/mid role at Freo.

We are kidding ourselves if we think Hogan isn't going to have a huge year. He will smash it at Freo, notwithstanding the fact I still think the trade was a good idea and we won out of it.

38 minutes ago, binman said:

Yes to TMac winning the Coleman.

• Won't play in the ruck at all i wouldn't have thought (except for some forward 50 throw ins)
• Hogan won't take goals off him (though he will get the opposition's best defender),
• He uses his hands a lot to push players so that rule change will help him
• Any increase in one on one marking opportunities as a result of other rule changes will help him
• He is the best kick for goal of any forward
• We are the highest scoring team in the league, a trend that i have little doubt will continue this year
• We will win more games this year and therefore kick more goals
• If the rule changes do make blow outs more common (which i'm not convinced about) we could kick some big scores this year

By the by currently $10 on Sportsbet so reasonable value and worth a flutter if you are that way inclined. Daniher is $12 which is ridiculously short given he practically didn't play last year and bombers will struggle this year. Kennedy and Franklin share favoritism at $5. Also way too short as that price would be fair enough if they play the whole season but a lot has to go right for that to occur. A bookies sucker punch, akin to long range bets on favorites for the Melbourne Cup.

To be fair,  a lot of those changes apply to all decent KPFs

yadda yadda yadda - who cares?

5 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

yadda yadda yadda - who cares?

http://bfy.tw/MSrn

Which players on that list would you take before TMac?

Both Buddy and Jack Reiwoldt are 32 and 30 years old. Tom is 26. I'd take Tom over them at this stage.

Josh Kennedy is injury prone. I can't see that changing as he's on the wrong side of 30 too.

I'll wait to see how Tom Lynch goes at the Tiges and whether he can get out on the park consistently.

I'd take Tommy Mac over Jesse any day of the week.

I'd have DeGooy and Ben Brown higher than Jessie and on par with our Tom.

Jesse is instinctively a much better forward than TMac becaus of his footy smarts and versatility in all forward positions. Both can be goal kicking machines on their day.

TMac is our best classical leading and marking FF since Billy Bennett but is at his best from the goal square. The two of them together for a full season with Jesse at CHF and a roaming brief together with TMac at FF would have been a joy to see. Alas, never to be fulfilled.

Would Nick Reiwolt have had both Jesse and Tmac on the same list if both were still at the Dees. I don't think so. One of them would have been left off the list and I have a feeling it would have been Jesse. The reason he is included on a list like this should not be that he is playing at Freo. Something is amiss here.

Hogan is a more talented footballer than McDonald, however, McDonald is just as effective as a forward, as his 76 goals from the last 31 games he's played as a forward attests.  Note: there were a few games at the end of 2016 after his move forward where he went back and played as a defender.  The Inside Football records are handy for showing this.

By comparison, Hogan has 68 from his last 31 games.  That said, many variables come into goals kicked, so I'm not reading anything into McDonald's slight lead.

2 hours ago, ProDee said:

Hogan is a more talented footballer than McDonald, however, McDonald is just as effective as a forward, as his 76 goals from the last 31 games he's played as a forward attests. 

Agree on both points.

The one advantage Tmac has over Hogan - and it is an important one - is that he is a much, much more reliable set shot at goal and not coincidentally has better technique, one that is more likely to hold up under pressure. I know which player i'd like to have the ball shooting for win after the siren.

I also think tmac is a marginally better one on one and contested mark. Though perhaps that's bit tough on Hogan.

Edited February 25, 20196 yr by binman

22 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree on both points.

The one advantage Tmac has over Hogan - and it is an important one - is that he is much, much more reliable set shot at goal and not coincidentally has better technique, one that is more likely to hold up under pressure. I know which player i'd like to have the ball shooting for win after the siren.

I also think tmac is marginally better one on one and contested mark. Though perhaps that's bit tough on Hogan.

I think you're not being tough on Hogan here 'bin'...

Marking is probably Tommy's strong point, I remember seeing him at Casey before he got a senior game and it was apparent then that he took a good grab.

He's more consistent in the air than Jesse, when he gets his hands on the ball he usually holds them.

8 minutes ago, rjay said:

I think you're not being tough on Hogan here 'bin'...

Marking is probably Tommy's strong point, I remember seeing him at Casey before he got a senior game and it was apparent then that he took a good grab.

He's more consistent in the air than Jesse, when he gets his hands on the ball he usually holds them.

and he keeps running and running, contesting in the air and on the ground. 

1 hour ago, Undeeterred said:

We are kidding ourselves if we think Hogan isn't going to have a huge year. He will smash it at Freo, notwithstanding the fact I still think the trade was a good idea and we won out of it.

 

With Lyons outdated game plan and freos slow ball movement I reckon he'll find it tough.
Gonna have 3 blokes standing next to him whenever the ball comes in and we know how Hogan loves that.

Is there a stat that measures a forwards ability to defend, chase and hold the game in the forward 50..? Be curious to see that stat. 

Both would have/will be/are Demon greats and Jesse would have given longevity and health ( not his forte so far) challenged Neiters goal record.

But Jesse's mind was not always his greatest asset and let's remember his record vs top and bottom sides.

No doubt all his warts so far are completely changeable and I hope he does so (not against the Dees) do imptovement is a given I would think even though he won't get all the opportunities at Freo straight away from a sub standard on ball division in a developing team.

Big Tom is a far better forward than back man and I reckon he can play till he is 33/34 such is his fitness (big toe excluded) pace accuracy and team play plus his nous and extraordinary marking both high and chest and one on one plus pack marks.

With  our team he should be in the best 6/7 years of our current premiership window and benefit off some of the best Ball getters the Dees have produced viz Clarry Trac Vanders Jack V and Harmsey and hopefully Tom Sparrow and other classy forwards.

Tom if he can play 20 out of say 25/26 games per year may not get near Neiter but he will hopefully have the accolade of multiple premiership player and at least a duel Coleman medallist to retire on. 

And I know on those big occasions Tom will be 100% on the job against the top sides. (5 vs Pies last QB) in a rout.

Tommy Mac for me but good luck Jesse on being second!

Could run around like a dog chasing its tail between tmac and hogan as better forwards. When I look at revolts list and see Hawkins rated at 5 I feel ill.

If Lyon allows Jesse to be matched against 3 opponents every time he goes near the ball, he might be back with us.

Apart from family, he didn't go to freo for the same garbage style. I hope Lyon has the good sense to free him up at CHF and never be forced to stand under the ball in the goal square.

Find another FF and let Jesse roam the field like he was destined to play. If Jesse does well (except against us) I will be delighted to know that we did make a good decision to draft him and also because we taught him about footy. Kudos to coaching panel and a big tick for our programme.

If he doesn't do well, we just blame freo for mismanagement.

 

16 minutes ago, tiers said:

If Lyon allows Jesse to be matched against 3 opponents every time he goes near the ball, he might be back with us.

Apart from family, he didn't go to freo for the same garbage style. I hope Lyon has the good sense to free him up at CHF and never be forced to stand under the ball in the goal square.

Find another FF and let Jesse roam the field like he was destined to play. If Jesse does well (except against us) I will be delighted to know that we did make a good decision to draft him and also because we taught him about footy. Kudos to coaching panel and a big tick for our programme.

If he doesn't do well, we just blame freo for mismanagement.

 

Agree. His strength is incredible running capacity - as was so evident in the first half of last year. Opposition defenders could not go with him. And his footy smarts. A natural.

I have to admit though that early doors i had expected him to develop into a better pack mark than he has become. One on one he is brilliant as reads the ball so well and times his body work but he doesn't clunk that many park marks and doesn't really launch at packs the way say Weeds does.

Reads like he wrote that at the end of 2017.

Tom McDonald got the better defender 9 times out of 10 last year, that's all you need to know.

That said, they are pretty similar in a lot of ways:

Both excellent runners who get up the ground and back
Tom the better kick for goal but Hoges better than he looks
Hogan with deft hands at ground level but Tom follows up well
Both not ideal ball users kicking inside 50, Tom can shank his field kicks whilst Hoges chips around his body with a bad action
Both lacking a bit of agility and pace to cause forward 50 turnovers, Tom a bit more effort but Hoges a bit more agility
Tom a pack mark clunker but Hoges a natural at using his body to bullock

The main advantage Tom had the last couple of years is better and more confident leading patterns. For whatever reason particularly at the MCG Hogan really struggled to create space and direct his team mates where to kick it.
 

@chook fowler

 

I agree, as long as McDonald is part of a functioning forward line and gets a couple of goals a game, that will do me

Hogan is a Fremantle player

St Nick is being paid to provide content

Edited February 25, 20196 yr by Satyriconhome

If it’s a choice between TMac and Hogan for key forward position, have to go TMac as he’s a far better contested mark, more reliable kick and doesn’t crack the sooks when things don’t go his way.