Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

20 minutes ago, Rocky said:

the thing is he ISNT their captain.. not now. he's shown his hand. why would they want a bloke not giving his all and on board? they have little currency now.. different to hogan situation - we would love him to stay, but will accept an amazing deal to release him.

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns.

In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May.

Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. 

Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

Edited September 29, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

11 hours ago, ManDee said:

Why would I apologize? Have I been wrong? The truth is nothing has happened yet. Don't get so bent out of shape. You may end up being right. Or wrong.

Right... so now I don't have "no idea" anymore? I could be right or wrong? As could you? That's where we got to?

Like I keep telling you. Quote me when you have something to say. If you don't? Don't quote me...

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 608]

2 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns.

In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May.

Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. 

Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

what so you think if he stays with the suns next year may will remain captain? kid you're a dreamer.. no way. you lose that once you put yourself out there to other clubs.. yes, they can insist he stays if they don't get what they want pick-wise, but do they really want a bloke who has sat down and met with three other clubs to be 'leading them' (their defence, leadership group, etc)? don't think so!

if you cannot see that we're in a stronger position with jesse than the suns are with may, i'm sorry, i can't help you.

i never said may would come cheap, but we should not be resigned to giving up a high first rounder for him.. surely potentially getting kelly would be priority over him.. surely! 

[MadAsHell 4,217]

7 hours ago, Neitz the Great said:

Excuse my ignorance, but why wouldn't we trade next year's first round pick for May?

Would likely be 14-18 which seems a good price to pay for him.

Then leaves us with 2 x top 10 picks in this years superdraft, one of which we can trade for a quality outside mid e.g. someone like shiel and we can take a top 5 pick in the draft which means that we fulfil the AFL's 2 first round picks in 4 years requirements.

Because as mentioned elsewhere, why would Gold Coast trade him now for that potential price, when they could hold onto him for 12 months, let him walk as a free abent and end up with another top 4 pick.

It's a nice thought, but no chance Gold Coast would go for it. Plenty of players meet with other clubs and then stay where they are. Dustin Martin, Ling Jong. And Melbourne are confident Aaron Vandenberg will do the same.

Edited September 29, 2018 by MadAsHell

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

17 hours ago, Macca said:

And before long it will be 2 years out as it is in all the major sports all over the world.  We're just catching up here in Oz but people are the same all over.

As inevitable as night following day

 

Free agency opened up the thinking

Those rallying against change are wasting their time.  The club's best strategy is to bypass the 'If you can't beat them, join them' angle and to get to the forefront of change.

I reckon that's what we're actually doing but we're not being very loud about it.

@Macca can you explain to me the difference between 1 year to go and 2 years to go, and what that does, compared to end of contract and 1 year to go? 

[Adzman 2,154]

If you would like an interesting perspective on this trade, have a look at what they are saying at Dockerland about the potential deal.

Quite a large number wed to the idea of of waiting until free agency and getting him for nothing next year, or that he is only worth pick 5 if they get a second round pick back, or just worth a first rounder straight up. Some posters see his value, and are salivating.

Either way, interesting reading from their perspective. Clearly some think that key forwards must grow on trees.......

https://www.dockerland.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&view=topic&catid=1&Itemid=251&id=492595

 

[Jaded No More 68,976]

1 minute ago, Adzman said:

If you would like an interesting perspective on this trade, have a look at what they are saying at Dockerland about the potential deal.

Quite a large number wed to the idea of of waiting until free agency and getting him for nothing next year, or that he is only worth pick 5 if they get a second round pick back, or just worth a first rounder straight up. Some posters see his value, and are salivating.

Either way, interesting reading from their perspective. Clearly some think that key forwards must grow on trees.......

https://www.dockerland.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&view=topic&catid=1&Itemid=251&id=492595

 

They’re Freo fans. They literally wouldn’t know success, a nice jumper or a good coach if it hit them in the face. 

[Mach5 4,768]

9 hours ago, bingers said:

Pretty disloyal by Hogan if all this talk is true. The club has been very supportive of him over the years.

I wouldn’t be so sure that this comes from Hogan alone. I’d suggest you approach this situation with more of an open mind, and look at the opportunities it is opening us up to.

[Mach5 4,768]

9 hours ago, Neitz the Great said:

Excuse my ignorance, but why wouldn't we trade next year's first round pick for May?

Would likely be 14-18 which seems a good price to pay for him.

Then leaves us with 2 x top 10 picks in this years superdraft, one of which we can trade for a quality outside mid e.g. someone like shiel and we can take a top 5 pick in the draft which means that we fulfil the AFL's 2 first round picks in 4 years requirements.

 

In addition to what others have said, GC can hold onto May until next year and get a top 5 pick if he leaves as a FA, so to trade him now they would need to be getting something close to that. 

They get the benefit of making the move a year earlier, but it still needs to be somewhat equitable to what they’d get next year.

[Mach5 4,768]

47 minutes ago, Jaded said:

They’re Freo fans. They literally wouldn’t know success, a nice jumper or a good coach if it hit them in the face. 

Careful, not too long ago many would have said the same about us. I’d have thought you’d realise a team’s success had no bearing on the knowledge (or lack thereof) of their supporters.

[Sydney Pennski 309]

7 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

In addition to what others have said, GC can hold onto May until next year and get a top 5 pick if he leaves as a FA, so to trade him now they would need to be getting something close to that. 

They get the benefit of making the move a year earlier, but it still needs to be somewhat equitable to what they’d get next year.

What guarantee is there that if May stays until next year that he will be worth Band 1 compensation? He could lose form or get injured and he'll be a year older meaning a year less to offer other clubs. If the Suns are offered a top 10 pick in what is generally considered the  best draft of the best decade against something that might happen in the future, they will look at it seriously.

[Redleg 42,052]

2 minutes ago, Sydney Pennski said:

What guarantee is there that if May stays until next year that he will be worth Band 1 compensation? He could lose form or get injured and he'll be a year older meaning a year less to offer other clubs. If the Suns are offered a top 10 pick in what is generally considered the  best draft of the best decade against something that might happen in the future, they will look at it seriously.

They have already made it clear they don't want to have another will he go, won't he go year. It is so distracting.

[ManDee 7,350]

5 hours ago, Dappa Dan said:

Right... so now I don't have "no idea" anymore? I could be right or wrong? As could you? That's where we got to?

Like I keep telling you. Quote me when you have something to say. If you don't? Don't quote me...

Ok if you insist. YOU HAVE NO IDEA what the final deal will be. At this stage it is speculation. But you might be right. What I have been trying to say is don't jump off a cliff it could end well. I am sorry if I  have upset you, I thought I was being a voice of reason.

 

 

[Mach5 4,768]

24 minutes ago, Sydney Pennski said:

What guarantee is there that if May stays until next year that he will be worth Band 1 compensation? He could lose form or get injured and he'll be a year older meaning a year less to offer other clubs. If the Suns are offered a top 10 pick in what is generally considered the  best draft of the best decade against something that might happen in the future, they will look at it seriously.

There’s no guarantee, but surely that’s the argument they’d be making.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Anybody think we will get some confirmation today? Or will we have to wait for Monday? 

[Diamond_Jim 12,723]

26 minutes ago, Sydney Pennski said:

What guarantee is there that if May stays until next year that he will be worth Band 1 compensation? He could lose form or get injured and he'll be a year older meaning a year less to offer other clubs. If the Suns are offered a top 10 pick in what is generally considered the  best draft of the best decade against something that might happen in the future, they will look at it seriously.

With the formula they may well get higher compensation than they can get under a trade. Hawks would not have offered us pick 3 for Frawley. Sometimes the formula works in favour of the giving club.

[Mach5 4,768]

3 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Anybody think we will get some confirmation today? Or will we have to wait for Monday? 

There may be unconfirmed media reports, but there’ll be nothing official until a deal is actually done; so unlikely.

[Redleg 42,052]

8 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Anybody think we will get some confirmation today? Or will we have to wait for Monday? 

Why would it have to be confirmed monday, trade week starts monday week?

[Redleg 42,052]

6 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

With the formula they may well get higher compensation than they can get under a trade. Hawks would not have offered us pick 3 for Frawley. Sometimes the formula works in favour of the giving club.

They say it is better to give than receive.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Why would it have to be confirmed monday, trade week starts monday week?

 

6 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

There may be unconfirmed media reports, but there’ll be nothing official until a deal is actually done; so unlikely.

What I meant was whether we will hear from the club or Jesse himself about the rumours today, tomorrow or even potentially later in the week. Or will they not address them at all...? 

[Lucifers Hero 40,574]

Well, I'm in 2019 mode and using a crystal ball to see what it might look like, especially with the new rule changes.

The 6x6x6 rule means there will be few obstacles to getting the ball quickly from the midfield to the very open forward line at centre bounces.  And the longer goal square will do the same.  In fact a kick in can reach the middle and another kick will get the ball deep into i50.

Those really help our 'ballistic' forward half ball movement.  Our midsized forwards - Petracca, Melksham and Fritsch are very good marks.  Maybe the club has decided that with the rule changes we have less need for Jesse.  It will be sad to see him go but I can see how our forward line will work well in the new AFL world.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Redleg 42,052]

3 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

 

What I meant was whether we will hear from the club or Jesse himself about the rumours today, tomorrow or even potentially later in the week. Or will they not address them at all...? 

I think it may be that we have to wait until a deal is done, unless you get the door stop trade week interviews, where they say there are discussions and he is one of them.

We have become very good at not leaking.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Redleg

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

Posted this in the May thread but also relevant here:

For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010.

Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien.

 Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars. The first 4 names there I’m pretty sure have all already been delisted!

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

The culture of trading is vastly different now in the AFL with free agency...

Including:

An openness to letting players who don't want to be at your club leave, rather than proving a point because you feel wounded that they want to leave.

Letting all players that aren't your core 4/6 - explore options elsewhere

All clubs are more open to trades that closely match what they are after - so operating with realism - vs the hardline stance that was abundant over the past few years and beyond.

All parties, Clubs and Players, understand that every decision that is made, is driven by the commercial interests of that party.

Both parties what remuneration that is fair and equitable.

FWIW - it's hard to see May staying, whether he comes to the Dee's is another story...

[beelzebub 23,390]

What boat are you in ??

SS Today/Tomorrow:   This boat is sailing into turbulent waters but with a view to taking all on thats before it and having a real crack. Living in the moment

RMS Pasado-Munyana:   This old barge aint going anywhere in too much of a hurry , just in case there's a storm, or a reef. In fact it just sails in circles.