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Match Preview and Team Selection - Elimination Final

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By Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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BenJamin on Deesy St
BenJamin on Deesy St

We owe the Cats. Last two losses down at Kardinia Park (111 and Zach T) reduced my eldest daughter to convulsive fits of despair and snot after the final siren. She used my shoulder and my 1980s hand-

Nasher
Nasher

How many in the last two games?  Nothing like getting behind our players eh.

ding
ding

JKH seriously unlucky, but that is great news for the club. Go back only 2 or 3 months ago and he was a certain delist. Now he not only deserves a contract for next year, but many of us would not

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DubDee Legend

DubDee   24,450

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Changes v Round 18 game

outs. Garlett   j Smith   Vince.  Jkh. Hogan

ins. Viney. Hannan. Vdberg. Weideman. Hibberd

 

Interesting.... a lot of toughness coming in: Viney, VDB, Hibberd.   we are better placed line up wise.

add to that it is played at the G, we should win.

please win.  

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P-man Legend

P-man   13,366

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Posted

JKH very unlucky. Has been getting better each game to silence the nuffies. I would’ve kept him ahead of Spargo who by his own admission is basically just running on adrenalin. But it should hopefully not come down to our 22nd man. 

Can’t wait for tomorrow night. Puuumped.

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layzie Legend

layzie   33,008

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Ak75 said:

I just watched the last quarter vs the Eagles and Dean Kent’s goal about 3 times. Goosebumps. Come on Dees! 

I did the same about an hour ago. Kent’s goal is such a moment in time. I wish I could take tomorrow off and just watch the last two games about 2 times through.

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WERRIDEE Trident

WERRIDEE   5,352

Posted
Posted

2 good ins really looking forward to the game GO THE MIGHT DEES!

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Demon Dynasty Legend

Demon Dynasty   17,094

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, bandicoot said:

Where are these stats from? What is this predictor? 

I run a composite series of weighted average stats through a spreadsheet bandi for both teams.  Stats are compiled from their last round performance on every player who played (courtesy of Footywire).  I adust where I can for ins and outs wherever possible for the forthcoming round's match up.

Each individual player has his own composite weighted average score from the previous week assuming he remains in the squad for the current round.  In the case of MFC "Ins" they have a season average weighted score which is a fairly accurate reflection of how they are likely to fair if being called up to replace an omission from the previous week (whether because of form or injury).

I then compose the total score from the previous week for the entire team using exactly the same method for each player/ team to give a total team weighted score, which then indicates/predicts the likely winner / loser.

Apart from the inputs and weightings the result is entirely objective with an 83% predictive accuracy so far in MFC games since Rnd 11.

Hope that makes a lil sense

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Cards13 Legend

Cards13   9,117

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Posted
4 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

I run a composite series of weighted average stats through a spreadsheet bandi for both teams.  Stats are compiled from their last round performance on every player who played (courtesy of Footywire).  I adust where I can for ins and outs wherever possible for the forthcoming round's match up.

Each individual player has his own composite weighted average score from the previous week assuming he remains in the squad for the current round.  In the case of MFC "Ins" they have a season average weighted score which is a fairly accurate reflection of how they are likely to fair if being called up to replace an omission from the previous week (whether because of form or injury).

I then compose the total score from the previous week for the entire team using exactly the same method for each player/ team to give a total team weighted score, which then indicates/predicts the likely winner / loser.

Apart from the inputs and weightings the result is entirely objective with an 83% predictive accuracy so far in MFC games since Rnd 11.

Hope that makes a lil sense

Ssooooo you’re saying we’re a chance?!

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BigFez Mighty Demon

BigFez   1,440

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Posted

Hopefully the team who played WCE and GWS show up, and not the team who played Sydney. 

Really hope we have left the whole ‘go to [censored] on the big and important stage’ in the past, and this new breed of demons can stand up when it matters. 

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Jaded No More Legend

Jaded No More   67,818

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Posted
14 hours ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

how many goals will Tyson Turnovers Total?

NO NEGATIVITY TONIGHT.... It's finals baby, and if there is one thing Geelong are bad at, it's clearances. Love that we are exploiting that. Tyson is a very good clearance player and has been much better since playing as an inside mid. As long as he isn't throw on the wing again with Viney's return, he will play well.

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   38,985

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A somewhat small thing - we need to be switched on to their 'tricks'. 

In the last game, I have little doubt the Dangerfield ruck nomination then staging for a free by pushing Brayshaw forward was determined before the game, to be played out for a ball up within 20m of their goal.  There is a reason no other Geelong player nominated for the ruck and why J Selwood clapped the free kick - it was a total ambush.  Cost us the game. 

Doesn't matter now as there is no other team I would rather play - I want payback for 186, for 111pt loss rnd 23 2016, for their two lucky wins this year, for their cheating, free kick staging players.  I could go on but you get the drift. 

A win by just a point will do! 

Except my anxiety will be through the roof if the game is that close...

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poita Redleg

poita   3,877

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Posted

I think we'd look better with an extra defender in the team, probably Joel Smith, but this is still a decent side that has no excuses for not performing well.

Great to see Tyson get up this week - his form has been good and we need midfield depth to beat Geelong. In fact I think a tired midfield is the main reason we fell away in the last quarter in round 18. Geelong were running about ten guys through the middle against our 5 or 6.

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Demons11 Redleg

Demons11   6,718

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Posted

I have tkts for sale as I have been invited to a box.   Happy to sell for cost price or even less for my fellow demomlanders. 

They are great seats level 1 Olympic stand 8 seats ($93 each) and Great Southern stand 5 seats ($82 each). 

Just pm me if you’re interested

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