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Run home to Finals - 2018

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On 8/6/2018 at 8:07 PM, Chook said:

Just did a ladder, so it's official:

Win 0 and we're 11th
Win 1 and we're 7th
Win 2 and we're 4th
Win 3 and we're 2nd

…massive stakes with every win.

Why do they bother with a 22 round season?

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    On 8/6/2018 at 8:30 PM, Danelska said:

    Nice one @bobby1554 - you forced me to do some quick sums

    Over the 19 rounds thus far

    we are 8.32 points per game (1 and a bit goals) behind Richmond in conceding (who are first in this field)

    we are 9.05 points per game ahead of Richmond in scoring (who are the 2nd in this field)

    As Goodwin says..we're not far off it - and considering the depth of experience of their core players (5-7 more years of experience compared to ours) and particularly since 2017 - Richmonds group of Rance, Martin Cotchin and a few others have missed perhaps 1 game each)...again compared to Hogan, Gawn, Viney, Tmac etc  -  we are delivering rather rather rather well.

    They are lovely numbers. 

    I think Richmond comfort and familiarity with their own game plan, compared to our players learning,  means they shade us at the moment.  But over the next few years this could be alot of fun. 

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    6 hours ago, leucopogon said:

    Lets face it, we've been the ultimate flat track bully side of the comp this year. I'm not reading too much into how much we've scored because most of that has been in the smashing of teams below us. I'm severely concerned that we have fallen at every hurdle against harder teams (maybe excepting the Adelaide away win). I'm extremely worried that we go 0-3 in the last three rounds and miss finals. This week is the ultimate put up or shut up game for the Dees.

    We've scored 94 and 98 against Geelong, one of the best defensive sides in the league.

    123 against North who only conceded 100 twice in their first 14 games (the other being to Port Adelaide) and who didn't concede more than 70 against anyone else in their first five games (which included a game against Hawthorn).

    90 against Adelaide, in Adelaide. Other sides to score 90+ there against Adelaide? Collingwood, GWS, Geelong and Port Adelaide. 

    We've scored over 90 in every game this year except Hawthorn, Richmond and Port Adelaide.

    And every side gets to play Carlton, GC, St Kilda and the Dogs. Some get to play them twice, like us. Yes, we've had probaly one or two more games against those sides than most of our competitors (not North). But we're regularly putting up high scores, and others aren't. And Sydney lost to GC, GWS drew with St Kilda, Geelong lost to the Dogs. 

    1 hour ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

    There's a little bit of getting ahead of yourselves here people...

    We need to win 2 to be guaranteed a finals an none of them are easy (Gellong beating Hawthorn will hurt our chances)

    As Goody said: let's just focus on the next challenge, the ladder will take care of itself

    If Geelong beats Hawthorn, then Hawthorn has to beat Sydney to get to 14 wins. If they don't, they finish on 13 which is what we'd finish on with one win, and no one's catching our percentage.

    It's been canvassed in earlier posts, but quite a few things have to occur for us to miss on 13 wins with our percentage, and I wouldn't call it probable.

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    11 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    If Geelong beats Hawthorn, then Hawthorn has to beat Sydney to get to 14 wins. If they don't, they finish on 13 which is what we'd finish on with one win, and no one's catching our percentage.

    It's been canvassed in earlier posts, but quite a few things have to occur for us to miss on 13 wins with our percentage, and I wouldn't call it probable.

    You're right that a lot of results need to align for 14 wins to be required, but most of them (in fact probably all) are going to be favourites 

    But I'd better put an all-up multi on the possibility anyway... just to be sure it doesn't happen!

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    One week at a time and focus on ourselves, the rest will sort themselves out. Adelaide away was an important win (and probably underrated by many) but is it the “big win” to give us the confidence to push forward? 

    Sydney can be that win for me, we haven’t had a happy hunting with them for quite a while and last year were given a ridiculously hard run before facing them last year. They haven’t faced us in prime nick for a long time. 

    If we can knock them off then I place no limits on how far we can go. The players should have every reason to feel confident but we need to be the ones to bring manic pressure from the start. 

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    • Like 3

    I would say it is more likely than not that you will need 14 wins to play finals. Key outcomes to require this:

    Geelong to beat Hawks - Highly likely on current form

    North to beat Adelaide away - probably most iffy result, but big chance Adelaide season already over when they play

    Port to win one of WC at home or Pies at G - Big chance given Gaff impact and Pies massive injuy list

    Hawks to beat Swans round 23 - if Sydney have nothing to play for likely, if they do, they probably beat us this week, which is not good!

    Amazing we could possibly be top 4 AFTER this round and still miss!

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    • Like 2

    Or win the next 5 and play the Tigers in the GF

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    • Like 1
     

    There is a dream scenario in the wings

    WCE and GWS injuries/susp help a LOT

    Edited by MSFebey

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    • Like 2

    It’s set up for us... We win out there is a very strong chance we finish 2nd. GWS injuries are piling up again & we know the loss of Gaff on field is huge for WC but who knows what the impact of the situation will have on the team from a moral/mental state point of view. 

    The possibility of a double chance & potentially 2 home finals. It’s there if the boys are fairdinkum...

    I’m supremely confident this week. Sydney are nowhere, lost to GC 3 weeks ago (yes it was a better side then we faced but please no’one losers to GC at home) Essendon accounted for them fairly easily & they fell in against an injury plagued Collingwood side with a first gamer on buddy & a freak grubber kick off the ground from McCartin. We win this week & head to Perth full of confidence...

    We all need to embrace this, I sense the feeling of uneasiness & unrest of the potential what if scenarios.. We deserve to dream, instead of the dooms day “what if’s” embrace the glory “what if’s” we’ve been so negative as supporters for so long, we all need to go the footy this Sunday thinking “how goods this, round 21 & we’re fighting for a top 4/top 8 spot” What we’ve all wanted for so long, just a chance to have a legiment crack at it

    Edited by JV7

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    • Like 12

    30 minutes ago, whelan45 said:

    I would say it is more likely than not that you will need 14 wins to play finals. Key outcomes to require this:

    Geelong to beat Hawks - Highly likely on current form

     

    Good predictions but I don't agree on cats/hawks and we will know more after Saturday, but I see the Hawks as greatly underrated, and the opposite for the Cats.

    Both forms lines have plusses and minuses but Hawks have the defence, attack  and midfield to beat the cats. 

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    Apologies if this has been written elsewhere

    Only two teams haven't beaten a side in the top eight (as at the end of Round 20) - Carlton and Melbourne.

    Bizarre fact - we have yet to play Swans, Eagles and Giants.

    Our last three games - Swans, Eagles and Giants

    Weird..................

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    1 hour ago, JV7 said:

    It’s set up for us... We win out there is a very strong chance we finish 2nd. GWS injuries are piling up again & we know the loss of Gaff on field is huge for WC but who knows what the impact of the situation will have on the team from a moral/mental state point of view. 

    The possibility of a double chance & potentially 2 home finals. It’s there if the boys are fairdinkum...

    I’m supremely confident this week. Sydney are nowhere, lost to GC 3 weeks ago (yes it was a better side then we faced but please no’one losers to GC at home) Essendon accounted for them fairly easily & they fell in against an injury plagued Collingwood side with a first gamer on buddy & a freak grubber kick off the ground from McCartin. We win this week & head to Perth full of confidence...

    We all need to embrace this, I sense the feeling of uneasiness & unrest of the potential what if scenarios.. We deserve to dream, instead of the dooms day “what if’s” embrace the glory “what if’s” we’ve been so negative as supporters for so long, we all need to go the footy this Sunday thinking “how goods this, round 21 & we’re fighting for a top 4/top 8 spot” What we’ve all wanted for so long, just a chance to have a legiment crack at it

    Absolutely!

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    3 hours ago, Fatman Blues said:

    Apologies if this has been written elsewhere

    Only two teams haven't beaten a side in the top eight (as at the end of Round 20) - Carlton and Melbourne.

    Bizarre fact - we have yet to play Swans, Eagles and Giants.

    Our last three games - Swans, Eagles and Giants

    Weird..................

    people keep saying this but like really we should have beaten Port and it was at their shithole so I think we more than showed we are capable

    Hawks and Pies absolutely got embarrassed no question but that's only really 2 losses and they were along time ago now

    Tigers the same just better on the night but from memory we had quite a few out and we were competitive for 3 quarters

    We have only played 4 games against top 8 teams lol so its not as if we have had heaps of cracks at it and none in the last 6-7 weeks

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    4 hours ago, JV7 said:

    It’s set up for us... We win out there is a very strong chance we finish 2nd. GWS injuries are piling up again & we know the loss of Gaff on field is huge for WC but who knows what the impact of the situation will have on the team from a moral/mental state point of view. 

    The possibility of a double chance & potentially 2 home finals. It’s there if the boys are fairdinkum...

    I’m supremely confident this week. Sydney are nowhere, lost to GC 3 weeks ago (yes it was a better side then we faced but please no’one losers to GC at home) Essendon accounted for them fairly easily & they fell in against an injury plagued Collingwood side with a first gamer on buddy & a freak grubber kick off the ground from McCartin. We win this week & head to Perth full of confidence...

    We all need to embrace this, I sense the feeling of uneasiness & unrest of the potential what if scenarios.. We deserve to dream, instead of the dooms day “what if’s” embrace the glory “what if’s” we’ve been so negative as supporters for so long, we all need to go the footy this Sunday thinking “how goods this, round 21 & we’re fighting for a top 4/top 8 spot” What we’ve all wanted for so long, just a chance to have a legiment crack at it

    yeah im in this wagon as well - imagine playing a home qualifying final against WCE - we would go in favourites all of a sudden to make a prelim - anything is possible in that scenario - we could go like WCE at the G then a prelim against the Giants at the G - im dreaming I know and it all ends if there are any screw ups from here on out but we beat Sydney on the weekend ill start believing for sure

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    3 hours ago, highroller said:

    people keep saying this but like really we should have beaten Port and it was at their shithole so I think we more than showed we are capable

    Hawks and Pies absolutely got embarrassed no question but that's only really 2 losses and they were along time ago now

    Tigers the same just better on the night but from memory we had quite a few out and we were competitive for 3 quarters

    We have only played 4 games against top 8 teams lol so its not as if we have had heaps of cracks at it and none in the last 6-7 weeks

    Lets hope we finally announce ourselves as a serious football side, by winning a couple and making the eight.

    Ordinary year if we don't.

     

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    • Like 2
    3 hours ago, highroller said:

    yeah im in this wagon as well - imagine playing a home qualifying final against WCE - we would go in favourites all of a sudden to make a prelim - anything is possible in that scenario - we could go like WCE at the G then a prelim against the Giants at the G - im dreaming I know and it all ends if there are any screw ups from here on out but we beat Sydney on the weekend ill start believing for sure

    Can't we play our home finals at Etihad????

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    • Haha 1

    We play a Sydney team well done on form.

    An Eagles team without NicNat, Kennedy or Gaff.

    A GWS hit hard by injury.

    We could well finish 2nd.

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    9 hours ago, spalding said:

    Or win the next 5 and play the Tigers in the GF

    That is a lovely post.

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    2 minutes ago, praha said:

    We play a Sydney team well done on form.

    An Eagles team without NicNat, Kennedy or Gaff.

    A GWS hit hard by injury.

    We could well finish 2nd.

    Possible.

    Sydney should not be written off or down too much.

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    9 hours ago, Fatman Blues said:

    Apologies if this has been written elsewhere

    Only two teams haven't beaten a side in the top eight (as at the end of Round 20) - Carlton and Melbourne.

    Bizarre fact - we have yet to play Swans, Eagles and Giants.

    Our last three games - Swans, Eagles and Giants

    Weird..................

    Good get. What is also highly possible, is that we could beat Swans and still not have beaten anyone in the 8 as of the end of this round.

     

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    FOOTY FANS: "The fixture is compromised. The top 8 doesn't represent teams fairly."

    ALSO FOOTY FANS: "Team X hasn't beat a team in the 8 yet! They obviously suck."

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    On 8/6/2018 at 1:07 PM, Chook said:

    Just did a ladder, so it's official:

    Win 0 and we're 11th
    Win 1 and we're 7th
    Win 2 and we're 4th
    Win 3 and we're 2nd

    …massive stakes with every win.

    We can win 1 and finish 9th. Depends on how the other games are predicted, obviously.

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    •  
    2 hours ago, praha said:

    We play a Sydney team well done on form.

    An Eagles team without NicNat, Kennedy or Gaff.

    A GWS hit hard by injury.

    We could well finish 2nd.

    Praha is being a little positive here.  Gives me a good feeling about our next three games!

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    Let’s hope the script of falling over the last hurdle is not repeated again. Should not be in this position with loses to cats & saints & should have been aiming for a top 2 or 4 position. 

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