Changes for Round 2 v Carlton

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

29 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Keilty

Jesus wept, flat out illogical.

I can understand the logic of playing a backline that involves T McDonald, Frost and Hibberd, even to a lesser extend T McDonald, Hibberd, Wagner. But to say that a rookie pick, who has to be fair barely shown enough at VFL level to warrant selection over a promising and competitve undersized but quickly developing defender is laughable. 

It entertains me how once people have a perception on a player it does not change, of course Oscar has his limitations as he is a 20 year old key position player, but his positioning and ability to read the play for the most part is quite good. Sure he loses some one v one contests, but not half as many as people make out and most of the time it is not due to poor positioning but rather lack of body strength.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Mad_Melbourne

[Nasher 33,617]

12 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

This should be the changes for the week.

Frustrating to have Bernie get rubbed out for a week after he played one of his better games in the backline, but we have adequate back up. He needs to work on the stupid reckless things he keeps getting in trouble for. I'm all for targeted aggression, but it needs to be in play. If you bump a bloke going for the ball like Melksham did on the weekend then he will second guess himself next time he goes for it. Whacking a bloke behind play gets you nothing but trouble.

Happy to have Tyson and Kent come back in. Both are best 22 and add something to the line up. Kent will add to our general speed and ball movement as well as become another goal scoring option. Tyson adds in and under skill around the stoppages and can also drift forward to kick goals. We can send someone like Salem down back to cover the missing players short term, and then get Vince and Hibberd back to settle the team longer term.

I'm a Kent fan, but I'm unsure the mix is right with him in. With he, Garlett, ANB, Hannan and maybe Petracca in the side, we've got too many half forwards in the side who can't (or coaches won't allow) yet do much else.  You could argue they could rotate through the middle more and that gets suggested a lot, but I haven't seen a lot of evidence that this actually happens much.

I think it more likely we'll add two mids, with Lewis and Jones increasing their responsibilities on halfback to cover Vince. I think it will be Tyson and Bugg in for Vince and Smith.

[Nasher 33,617]

7 minutes ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Jesus wept, flat out illogical.

I can understand the logic of playing a backline that involves T McDonald, Frost and Hibberd, even to a lesser extend T McDonald, Hibberd, Wagner. But to say that a rookie pick, who has to be fair barely shown enough at VFL level to warrant selection over a promising and competitve undersized but quickly developing defender is laughable. 

It entertains me how once people have a perception on a player it does not change, of course Oscar has his limitations as he is a 20 year old key position player, but his positioning and ability to read the play for the most part is quite good. Sure he loses some one v one contests, but not half as many as people make out and most of the time it is not due to poor positioning but rather lack of body strength.

Possibly harsh assessment of Keilty who by all reports had a strong season in the VFL last year, but otherwise agree that it was an absurd suggestion.

[mo64 5,881]

11 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

 

Couldn't agree more on that front Mo. However, clangers aren't only limited to disposals that end up directly in the hands of the opposition. According to Wikipedia (yikes!) ....

The stat also includes....

• Dropped marks or fumbles under no pressure , free kicks, 50 meter penalties and stepping over the line during a kick in.

IMO stats alone should never be used to judge an individual's relative performance, especially most publicly available stats. However, i have no doubt some selective "key"  non-public in-house (Champion stats) used in conjunction with viewing of the game (especially for review purposes) would be reasonably helpful in gaining an insight  on where or how a player is performing (or under-performing) relatively vs player/s who might be performing a similar role in a similar part of the ground. Obviously a task best left to the experts who have the knowledge and access to these resources at club level. I would love to be privy to some of these review methods and what goes on game day, and the days following, including their use for review Monday. I remember SEN interviewed a chap who does this at a particular club one time and it was very insightful.

Garlett had 4 free kicks against but only 1 recorded clanger, so I don't believe that this is correct. 

[rpfc 28,779]

3 hours ago, jnrmac said:

If anyone is in any doubt that OMac is a weak link Goodwin himself explained how the Aints tried to isolate him at every opportunity. Whoever was on him would run back towards goals to put one on one pressure on Oscar.

expect it to happen more often if he plays. He needs another Demon to 'babysit' him in the backline which is what brother Tom did for much of the game. 

From what I can see, Oscar has trouble when in a position with multiple players to worry about. If teams want to isolate him one-on-one that is fine with me assuming we have a desirable match up.

And the happy issue with isolating Oscar in the square with the 2nd of 3rd forward is the opponents best forward is sitting out of the danger area with Tom McD near him.

That falls apart when the second forward dominates him but there are not too many twin towers around.

Edited March 28, 2017 by rpfc

[Demon_JB 1,385]

OUT: J Smith, Vince

IN: Harmes, Tyson

Can Harmes be a good addition to a floater across half back? Pretty good closing speed and has a great leap?

[Wiseblood 24,637]

10 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Possibly harsh assessment of Keilty who by all reports had a strong season in the VFL last year, but otherwise agree that it was an absurd suggestion.

Welcome to the weekly changes thread, where illogical generally reigns and actual sense can be few and far between. 

[Cards13 9,117]

52 minutes ago, small but forward said:

I'd be happier with Frost in the backline over Oscar at the moment. I think Oscar has a long future in the backline, but needs to hone/perfect his craft at VFL level. I also think Frost is a better intercept/rebound defender.

Not sure how Frosty's toe is holding up at present.

He is injured, who would you bring in this week for him?

[Cards13 9,117]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Keilty

Not for mine, he played in the fwd line on the weekend (happy to be corrected Drunkn) but he is a rookie and not played an AFL game. Doesn't make a lot of sense, we can get caught up in what might be (ie a player we have never seen before that might be some diamond in the rough) but players take time to develop. OMc is developing, he has a way to go I think we all agree but Dec hasn't shown anything at AFL level. Bit of a long bow for mind Jnr.

[Adam The God 30,411]

On Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 10:19 AM, Red and Blue realist said:

Not sure if I watched the same game as the rest of you. Oscar had less howlers than Lewis, Vince and Jones. He's role is the spoil and he did that really well I thought. He's not the most polished player yet but there's no doubt he'll be best 22 every week if he plays like that

I think in Omac's first quarter, where he was often isolated, it's fair to say he struggled, but after quarter time, it was only his lack polish that could be bemoaned. He dropped far too many simple uncontested chest marks, but as I've noted a couple of times and as you note RABR, his game wasnt drop worthy, nor will it be with our injuries.

[mo64 5,881]

1 minute ago, Cards13 said:

Not for mine, he played in the fwd line on the weekend (happy to be corrected Drunkn) but he is a rookie and not played an AFL game. Doesn't make a lot of sense, we can get caught up in what might be (ie a player we have never seen before that might be some diamond in the rough) but players take time to develop. OMc is developing, he has a way to go I think we all agree but Dec hasn't shown anything at AFL level. Bit of a long bow for mind Jnr.

Not surprising considering he hasn't played at AFL level. 

I'm not suggesting replacing O Mac with Keilty, but it is not as absurd as what people are suggesting. Keilty being a rookie is irrelevant, because history has shown how rookies can make an immediate impact at AFL level when given the opportunity.

Everyone was surprised when Wagner was selected last year. And almost everyone sh#t canned Mark Stevens for suggesting that Hannan would push for round 1 selection. Some players actually thrive when elevated to the next level. Keilty may be one of them. 

[GawnWithTheWind 604]

Outs: Smith, Vince

Ins: Tyson, Kent

---------

FB: Jetta - Oscar - Melksham

HB: Lewis - T-Mac - Hunt

C: Stretch - Viney - Tyson

HF: Trac - Watts - Hannan

FF: Garlett - Hogan - Weiderman

R: Gawn - N.Jones - Oliver

I: Kent, ANB, Brayshaw, Salem

 

Salem, N.Jones and Lewis to rotate through HB line.

Tyson to fill the void of having one of lewis or N.J out of the mids.

With Kent coming in, he should spend more time in the fwd line putting pressure on with jeffy/mitch --> ANB to spend more time up the ground.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

Garlett had 4 free kicks against but only 1 recorded clanger, so I don't believe that this is correct. 

I suspect you are correct Mo. Maybe a visit to Wiki needed ?

[jnrmac 20,186]

39 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

Not for mine, he played in the fwd line on the weekend (happy to be corrected Drunkn) but he is a rookie and not played an AFL game. Doesn't make a lot of sense, we can get caught up in what might be (ie a player we have never seen before that might be some diamond in the rough) but players take time to develop. OMc is developing, he has a way to go I think we all agree but Dec hasn't shown anything at AFL level. Bit of a long bow for mind Jnr.

He's bigger and stronger than OMac and IMO couldn't be much worse. OMac looks devoid of confidence to me and needs time at Casey to refresh and reset.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, Red and Blue realist said:

My point wasn't about clangers as such, anyone can get ahead of themselves and fumble a mark or two grab a ground ball. I was talking about out and out howlers, both Jones and Lewis both kicked the ball straight to Saints players. While OMac might extend himself a little more than he's capable of at the moment (although i actually love that he's not afraid to take the game on - even if he does make the odd mistake), he gets crucified more than anyone else (the new Watts). 

The calls for him to go back to Casey, really won't do much for him long term either, AFL listed big forwards and backs and normally significantly stronger (and better) than anything at a lower level so you want them learning to compete against the best, and take the odd 'clanger, mistake, howler' because the end result will be much better. I think it's much like the debate about starting Pedo over Weid, I think if were serious about not only making but winning finals we need the Weid up and going while Pedo is handy back up at best. 

I don't think O Mac is extending himself beyond what he is capable of R&B. I think what you see is mostly where a player is at at any particular point, form wise. Same applies to Weids and anyone else in the team. Although Weids did show something on the weekend i think both of these players are a medium term work in progress and are certainly not, at this point, regular lock in 22s.

Each player's form (skills/awareness/ability to execute) may improve and take little steps up as the season progresses or it can also go the other way as we all know. If players keep their spots also by doing so it would be great for team balance and understanding (Vince!! ). But we now have a list where sub par performances over 3 to 4 week periods need to be weeded out (no pun intended) and IF listed players sitting at Casey are showing very good form, they get their chance to step up and "maybe" perform at a higher level and hopefully help the team get over the line etc.

I just hope the match committee aren't fixed lock step, to continually playing their favourite based on "prospect" alone, even if they end up horribly out of form for weeks on end. Just play whoever the best "form" players are from Casey (and the training track) provided it's consistent stand out form at that level and can't be overlooked. And provided we aren't making wholesale changes which upset team balance and continuity.

I don't care if it's Pedo, Frost, Hibberd (TIM SMITH!!! ) etc etc., provided we are playing our best "in form" 22 wherever possible whilst also ignoring the odd shocker here and there for those that are performing at the required/expected level (or above!) most weeks. Obviously all the match up, horses for courses aspects for game day need to come into the selection process as well.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

19 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

He's bigger and stronger than OMac and IMO couldn't be much worse. OMac looks devoid of confidence to me and needs time at Casey to refresh and reset.

You don't think he is worth another week against the Blues Jnr? I agree he looked off the pace and there were a number of ordinary aspects to his game but might be worth one more week. The FD can also take another look in the magoos to see how Keilty and others (Pedders?) go this week.

[leehow 303]

32 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

He's bigger and stronger than OMac and IMO couldn't be much worse. OMac looks devoid of confidence to me and needs time at Casey to refresh and reset.

According to the Melbourne website, which may not be 100% accurate.

• Oscar McDonald - 196cm, 97kg
• Declan Keilty - 194cm, 93kg

Not that it matters, because Oscar won't be dropped.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

We have lost two defenders in Vince & Smith. Vince also drifts forward occasionally. Some are suggesting Kent but can't see who he replaces up forward? Then you still need two ins to cover the defensive outs.

Wags & Pedders (if fit) seem like the logical replacements (although neither can kick goals from a hand off outside 50!  )

Pedders can play either end though and might kick the odd goal a la Vince. He also hits the contest hard as nails. A handy in IMO if fit.

[KingDingAling 3,758]

Pedders in for Smith.

Not sure who for Vince. Hibberd would've been perfect because he can kick. Maybe someone from left field.

[binman 43,762]

33 minutes ago, leehow said:

According to the Melbourne website, which may not be 100% accurate.

• Oscar McDonald - 196cm, 97kg
• Declan Keilty - 194cm, 93kg

Not that it matters, because Oscar won't be dropped.

Spot on. There is absolutely no chance omac will be dropped. What does that tell you? It tells me Goodwin does not share the view of some DL posters about his ability and form.  

Similarly it was not surprise to see Goodwin contradict the views of a number of DL posters who suggested Jetta might struggle to get back into the side. As if you leave our most consistent and reliable defender out of the side. He is smart, predictable, does not waste possessions, rarely tuns the ball over, understands his role (and his limitations) and as roos pointed out after he completely out marked a saints forward one on one hardly ever beaten in a one on one duel.

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

I don't think O Mac is extending himself beyond what he is capable of R&B. I think what you see is mostly where a player is at at any particular point, form wise. Same applies to Weids and anyone else in the team. Although Weids did show something on the weekend i think both of these players are a medium term work in progress and are certainly not, at this point, regular lock in 22s.

Each player's form (skills/awareness/ability to execute) may improve and take little steps up as the season progresses or it can also go the other way as we all know. If players keep their spots also by doing so it would be great for team balance and understanding (Vince!! ). But we now have a list where sub par performances over 3 to 4 week periods need to be weeded out (no pun intended) and IF listed players sitting at Casey are showing very good form, they get their chance to step up and "maybe" perform at a higher level and hopefully help the team get over the line etc.

I just hope the match committee aren't fixed lock step, to continually playing their favourite based on "prospect" alone, even if they end up horribly out of form for weeks on end. Just play whoever the best "form" players are from Casey (and the training track) provided it's consistent stand out form at that level and can't be overlooked. And provided we aren't making wholesale changes which upset team balance and continuity.

I don't care if it's Pedo, Frost, Hibberd (TIM SMITH!!! ) etc etc., provided we are playing our best "in form" 22 wherever possible whilst also ignoring the odd shocker here and there for those that are performing at the required/expected level (or above!) most weeks. Obviously all the match up, horses for courses aspects for game day need to come into the selection process as well.

I agree that no player - and it feels good this year not to automatically gift games to players - should be safe from being sent back to Casey to work on a few things in their game. While only pre-season Watts was the perfect example. 

With OMac, I think he's been rubbished on here a fair bit, while his form is not terrible. While some have said there's those just looking to stick up for him, I watched the replay looking for a massive amount of errors or goals that were his fault, and they just weren't there to the extent that he had to be dropped immediately. 

I think he'll continue to frustrate because I do think he tries to do things he's not quiet ready too (my meaning of extending himself), naturally that happens with nearly all the younger guys, Petracca in particular. 

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

46 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

We have lost two defenders in Vince & Smith. Vince also drifts forward occasionally. Some are suggesting Kent but can't see who he replaces up forward? Then you still need two ins to cover the defensive outs.

Wags & Pedders (if fit) seem like the logical replacements (although neither can kick goals from a hand off outside 50!  )

Pedders can play either end though and might kick the odd goal a la Vince. He also hits the contest hard as nails. A handy in IMO if fit.

Was there any reports of Pedders in the Casey game? He doesn't really have the speed of either Vince or Smith (ball movement in particular) so if he's an in, they'll need the Macs to take more control of running the ball out of the backline and we know the commotion that causes around here!

[jnrmac 20,186]

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

You don't think he is worth another week against the Blues Jnr? I agree he looked off the pace and there were a number of ordinary aspects to his game but might be worth one more week. The FD can also take another look in the magoos to see how Keilty and others (Pedders?) go this week.

I think he should be dropped but I doubt that he will. At 18 games they want to put more games into him and against Carlton, having lost Vince, they won't want to change. I just see a player that is on present form a liability. Goodwin admitted that the Saints tried to isolate Oscar at every opportunity so the club knows he needs a lot of help back there.

I would prefer Frost but he is unlikely ready. For those that say Keilty is unproven I say so is Hannan.

I would prefer to see players attacking contests with intensity. It's not disimilar to Watts. When he was playing poorly a few years back he had zero intensity. He was dropped in rd 23 2015 and has struggled this pre-season. I see OMac in a similar light,

 

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

16 minutes ago, binman said:

Spot on. There is absolutely no chance omac will be dropped. What does that tell you? It tells me Goodwin does not share the view of some DL posters about his ability and form.  

Similarly it was not surprise to see Goodwin contradict the views of a number of DL posters who suggested Jetta might struggle to get back into the side. As if you leave our most consistent and reliable defender out of the side. He is smart, predictable, does not waste possessions, rarely tuns the ball over, understands his role (and his limitations) and as roos pointed out after he completely out marked a saints forward one on one hardly ever beaten in a one on one duel.

2 completely different issues:

Frost, Wagner, J Smith and Garland are injured. Pedersen hasn't played key back in years and is underdone coming off a shoulder. Keilty is being trained as a ruck/forward because we need depth in that spot. With Watts playing ok he might go back to the backline now. If we had better options Oscar would be under the pump. It's not exactly rocket science. His long term ability is promising, his current form against the Eagles and Saints is not. Let's all hope he cuts out the glaring errors in his game.

Most of the commentary around Jetta came from the coaches leaving him out of the 2nd and 3rd JLT games and comments from the coaches (McCartney's season previews) and from Jetta himself (via Saty) that he needed to keep improving to hold his spot. Namely in that his fitness and 2 way run had to be up and going. I don't think I ever saw a single post on here that suggested Jetta wasn't a great role player, very good one on one or solid with the ball in his hands. If Hibberd or Wagner were fit he might've been left out of the side due to the way we are trying to play and I say that being a huge fan of Jetta and very appreciative of his efforts.

[jnrmac 20,186]

1 hour ago, leehow said:

According to the Melbourne website, which may not be 100% accurate.

• Oscar McDonald - 196cm, 97kg
• Declan Keilty - 194cm, 93kg

Not that it matters, because Oscar won't be dropped.

I wouldn't go on those stats personally. Looking at the two. Keilty looks more solid. He certainly plays a much more physical game than Oscar,