58 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I agree.

But the point he's making about a ruckman winning the Brownlow is actually addressing an interesting side issue. The Brownlow has been too heavily weighted towards midfielders for the last 20 years. Getting rid of 3rd man up will help true tap ruckman; and limiting interchange to much fewer than now would give key position players a chance of winning. 

 

Would have thought that if Gawn wins the brownlow we make finals.

Robbo, professional unbiased "journalist" that he is, predictably predicted..........who?

Edited March 5, 20178 yr by monoccular

47 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Robbo, professional unbiased "journalist" that he is, predictably predicted..........who?

He picked Essendon to finish 8th. So did two others, including Adam Cooney.

I'm not a fan of Robbo, but it's hardly beyond the realms of possibility.

4 minutes ago, mauriesy said:

He picked Essendon to finish 8th. So did two others, including Adam Cooney.

I'm not a fan of Robbo, but it's hardly beyond the realms of possibility.

I agree... the only thing that is likely to stop Essendon making the eight is if key players start to tire in the second half of the season due to being out of the game for an entire season.

34 minutes ago, hardtack said:

I agree... the only thing that is likely to stop Essendon making the eight is if key players start to tire in the second half of the season due to being out of the game for an entire season.

And we will have to keep an eye out for a couple of ours too.  I did even wonder if it could be not such a good idea to have them both in for round 1.

On 3/4/2017 at 6:00 PM, small but forward said:

Agreed- he's predicting we'll beat Hawthorn in a final - that would really add spice to the Jordan Lewis trade....love the thought of that happening (only mild payback for the grannie in 88)

It should cheer you up that we've already had better than mild payback for the '88 grannie - that was in 1990 when we knocked them out of the first week of the finals ending their attempt at three in a row. 

(If only we'd gone on with it instead of losing the next week, we'd have full payback.)

17 hours ago, hardtack said:

I agree... the only thing that is likely to stop Essendon making the eight is if key players start to tire in the second half of the season due to being out of the game for an entire season.

Agree. Essendon's going to be really interesting this year, to see how much a year out of the game takes the edge off, or freshens up a list. They could be anything.

Given our recent history, the fact that we are even being considered in finals calculations by any of these scribes is a quantum leap from where we obviously were.

 

Edited March 6, 20178 yr by iv'a worn smith

These things are always pretty rubbish. The experts tend to use their expert opinions to predict the same as the year prior.

Out of these 18 experts, 7 of them predicted only 2 changes to the top 8, while 11 predicted only 1 change.

In the past 20 years, 2 changes has occurred 8 times, and 1 or less changes has occurred zero times.

So the majority of experts have predicted a scenario that hasn't occurred in the past 20 years.

1 hour ago, pitmaster said:

Agree. Essendon's going to be really interesting this year, to see how much a year out of the game takes the edge off, or freshens up a list. They could be anything.

Ok so I may have a slight anti Essendon bias but since their 2012 on the gear year, where they came 11th, after forgetfully leaving all their soft tissues in the off side injecting facility they have come

2013 9th

2014 7th and the most recent year with a full AFL list

2015 15th

Since then they have added a couple of promising young kids and a few average extras. They will now get back a bunch of senior players who, at best, will be unlikely to surpass their 2015 year. 

Im happy that a few have them in the 8 as this will raise expectations and cause further disillusionment when they fail miserably 

Second last (17th) if they are lucky.

2 minutes ago, fndee said:

Ok so I may have a slight anti Essendon bias but since their 2012 on the gear year, where they came 11th, after forgetfully leaving all their soft tissues in the off side injecting facility they have come

2013 9th

2014 7th and the most recent year with a full AFL list

2015 15th

Since then they have added a couple of promising young kids and a few average extras. They will now get back a bunch of senior players who, at best, will be unlikely to surpass their 2015 year. 

Im happy that a few have them in the 8 as this will raise expectations and cause further disillusionment when they fail miserably 

Second last (17th) if they are lucky.

Surely you must consider the strong possibility of the righteous might of the brave returning heroes, raising them to a heroic and glorious premiership?

21 hours ago, Devil is in the Detail said:

Would have thought that if Gawn wins the brownlow we make finals.

I can't see us winning a Brownlow in the near future.The medal is usually awarded to a standout in an average team.Our mids and forwards will be sharing the votes around if we make finals.

 

It's so easy to predict a top 8 team.

Make sure Eagles, Swans, Hawks, Cats and Crows are in there.

Add in 1-2 up-and-coming teams.

Take one of last year's finalists out and add one team from 9th-12th.

No one really takes any risks. It's pointless.

40 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Surely you must consider the strong possibility of the righteous might of the brave returning heroes, raising them to a heroic and glorious premiership?

I like to pretend that this isn't a possibility.

It's the only way I can continue watching football.

21 hours ago, praha said:

It's so easy to predict a top 8 team.

Make sure Eagles, Swans, Hawks, Cats and Crows are in there.

Add in 1-2 up-and-coming teams.

Take one of last year's finalists out and add one team from 9th-12th.

No one really takes any risks. It's pointless.

I wonder if each year’s actual final eight generally reflects those off-the-cuff predictions or if this “risk-free” formula is just complete convention with no historical grounding.

I've never heard of her but Lauren wood is probably the closest to what I would predict (despite her having us outside the 8). I think the final 8th spot could be a really close battle this year between us, the Saints, Tigers, and Essendon (I will vomit if they make the 8). 

No surprises Robbo has them in the 8. Couple of the predictions I want to come true, us finishing 5 would have me deliriously happy!

Edited March 6, 20178 yr by Pates

21 hours ago, praha said:

It's so easy to predict a top 8 team.

Make sure Eagles, Swans, Hawks, Cats and Crows are in there.

Add in 1-2 up-and-coming teams.

Take one of last year's finalists out and add one team from 9th-12th.

No one really takes any risks. It's pointless.

I have this gut feeling the Weagles aren't going to make the 8. Nick Nats a big part of that reason, but mainly gut feeling. 

On 3/4/2017 at 1:37 PM, Stretch Johnson said:

Last week Ralph suggested that a player had a hypertension of the knee.

Not kidding.

I hyperextended my brain....

When your brain is pressurised, it can lead to hypertension of the knee. ( I seen that on Google )

If Max Gawn plays like he did last year and we do win a final he could be a good chance to win the brownlow.

Many experts still love the Hawks. I can't see them being the same side as years gone by.

If Max Gawn plays like he did last year he could reasonably expect to receive around the same amount of votes as the Brownlow he didn't win last year. And winning a final won't help his chances.

If Gawn wins the Brownlow it will be an acceptance speech to end all acceptance speeches...

On 04/03/2017 at 1:40 PM, Mach5 said:

I think the top 8 predictions show who are at least capable of recognising a list with young developing talent that is due to ripen, and those that just follow the pack.

Yes interesting that. All seem to recognise a young emerging and extremely talented list (GWS), but not the Dees. A list I reckon is just as talented as GWS. 

I like it though these guys continue to underestimate us: a great advantage IMHO.

Edited March 8, 20178 yr by Dees2014

16 hours ago, Dees2014 said:

Yes interesting that. All seem to recognise a young emerging and extremely talented list (GWS), but not the Dees. A list I reckon is just as talented as GWS. 

I like it though these guys continue to underestimate us: a great advantage IMHO.

GWS went from 2015 11th 11-11 99% to 2016 4th 16-6 143%

We were 11th 10-12 96% last year

17 hours ago, low flying Robbo said:

If Gawn wins the Brownlow it will be an acceptance speech to end all acceptance speeches...

Got an insight into what it would be like at the BnF. If he got on the turps it would be even better.

He tends to flip between two approaches. One is cocky ("I make my teammates look good putting it down their throats"). The other is self deprecating ("I can't get a touch").

I prefer the cocky Gawny. I hope that's the one that would accept the award.