Going in as Favourites

[Forest Demon 4,681]

So I quickly trawled through the Roos years, and looked at every game we went in as favourites.

In 7 games as favourites, we have only won a single game, that being against Brisbane last year at the G, which was one of the most unconvincing wins I have seen.

It goes without saying, you should be winning most of the games you go in as favourites, so to have 1-6 record is absolutely shocking.

How can a team become so complacent? Especially considering the lack of success over the last decade.

2014

Round 1 vs St Kilda at Etihad ($1.80) - 3 point loss

Round 19 vs Brisbane at Etihad ($1.70) - 23 point loss

Round 21 vs GWS at the MCG ($1.50) - 64 point loss

2015

Round 15 vs Essendon at the MCG ($1.50) - 9 point loss

Round 16 vs Brisbane at the MCG ($1.60) - 24 point win

Round 21 vs Carlton at the MCG ($1.35) - 23 point loss

2016

Round 2 vs Essendon at the MCG ($1.10) - 13 point loss

Post OP

Round 6 vs St Kilda at Etihad ($1.80) - 39 point loss

Round 9 vs Brisbane at the MCG ($1.15) - 63 point win

Edited May 22, 2016 by Forest Demon

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

I would also argue we seem to get off to pretty poor starts in most of our matches. There are rare exceptions but far too often we are always chasing our opponent's tail with them tending to get the first 2 to 4 goals (or more).

To me this is not just talent alone. A very good coach should be able to motivate his team and get them up early in the match to give them the best possible start and chance of winning (and winning by a decent margin against lessor ranked opponents like today).

[btdemon 482]

When I heard McDonald saying that he couldn't wait to have two wins in a row I thought "Uh Oh!". It seems that the boys may have penciled this one in. I'm so sick of this. 

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,654]

It has happened for a lot longer than the Roos years.

No club has an ability quite like the Demons.

 

Remember reading about a club function, about round 17, 2005, the Demons were on top of the ladder (think a team lost, leaving us on top), the team and club got a standing ovation. 

I knew our season was over when I read about this.

 

We have been mentally soft for over a decade 

 

[Emerald 1,744]

A 6 in 7 chance of winning sounds like pretty good odds.I might have to start gambling by betting against Melbourne when we're favorites.Thanks for greatest gambling system of all time Forest.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

Too many on here were too confident, everytime.

"How many is hogan going to kick?"

i mean please. 

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Just now, Emerald said:

A 6 in 7 chance of winning sounds like pretty good odds.I might have to start gambling by betting against Melbourne when we're favorites.Thanks for greatest gambling system of all time Forest.

And there would have been some juicy odds as well. Essendon today and Carlton last year in particular, were both long odds to beat us.

[Maple Demon 449]

I don't think we'll be favorites again for a while after today.  Although I don't think Essendon is/will be as bad as many people/experts have predicted, the way our team played today as a whole left a lot to be desired.

[Deecisive 1,709]

44 minutes ago, Maple Demon said:

I don't think we'll be favorites again for a while after today.  Although I don't think Essendon is/will be as bad as many people/experts have predicted, the way our team played today as a whole left a lot to be desired.

We made essendon look a lot better than what they were with our turnovers and poor football. Sadly this is a skill we seem to turn on every time we are favoured to win.

[dave 183]

Never felt confident about today, when we are favourites we ALWAYS drop our bundle, plus reckon we only played one and half quarters last week and GWS would have beaten us if they'd kicked straight

[Adzman 2,154]

The only thing we should ever be favourites for is finishing bottom 4...

[John Crow Batty 8,871]

11 hours ago, Forest Demon said:

And there would have been some juicy odds as well. Essendon today and Carlton last year in particular, were both long odds to beat us.

I would be curious to know if there were some betting plunges against us before the game.

[mo64 5,875]

2 minutes ago, america de cali said:

I would be curious to know if there were some betting plunges against us before the game.

I'm not ashamed to say that I had a small wager on the Bombers at $5.75, and had a significant wager on the line 37.5 points. This game had all the hallmarks of an upset.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

11 minutes ago, mo64 said:

I'm not ashamed to say that I had a small wager on the Bombers at $5.75, and had a significant wager on the line 37.5 points. This game had all the hallmarks of an upset.

Very smart mo64. I am bumping this thread next time we go in as favourites, and we can all make a tidy little profit. That, or Demonland puts enough money on the opposition to blow the Dees out of favouritism and we win. Win win.

[leucopogon 1,519]

We won't be favourites again this year, nota chance.

[hells bells 2,023]

The issue is that the playing group as a whole are basically lazy.  There seems to be an attitude of doing just enough. 

A powerful side yesterday wouldn't have taken Essendon lightly but would have aimed for and worked hard for a 10 goal plus win.  We don't do that, we don't ever do that. 

I reckon it's also why we have bad starts to the game.  It's almost like we wait to see what the opposition is going to do before we judge how much effort we're going to put in. 

Its the same reason we never put away any teams.  We get to 4-5 goals up and then just go into cruise mode.

It is purely attitude - we are not professional enough to have the same mindset for every match - we don't know how to be ruthless.  Until it changes, we will remain perennial strugglers.

 

[Deecisive 1,709]

Some significant issues from yesterdays loss.

- The players have lost a lot of momentum and self belief.

- The loss serious undermined supporters view of Roos and to some degree the coaching panel.

- Supporters who have been living off the hope since the draft that a new year with a fit Jessie Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver can five us the lift we need. now we see that the lift we need is far greater than just adding a couple of star recruits. 

- Lastly we made so many many Essendon supporters not only happy but rich with odds of 6 to 1.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Bumpity bump.

Now 1 from 8 as favourites under Roos.

I was never confident of the 4 points today, but the way we just let them play their way indicates we got ahead of ourselves yet again.

Will update the OP with updated stats.

[DemonOX 8,791]

As usual it's all between the f u c k I n g ears. 

The players have 9 shitz yrs to remind them not to get ahead of themselves ffs. 

[ILLDieADemon 804]

On 2 April 2016 at 5:51 PM, btdemon said:

When I heard McDonald saying that he couldn't wait to have two wins in a row I thought "Uh Oh!". It seems that the boys may have penciled this one in. I'm so sick of this. 

What do you expect them to do think they are going to lose every week? 

[btdemon 482]

45 minutes ago, ILLDieADemon said:

What do you expect them to do think they are going to lose every week? 

No, but in this day and age if a team goes in to a game with any sense that the game is a gimme then there is trouble. it doesn't matter who the opponent is. Of all teams we cannot afford any complacency. We're just not that good yet.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

In a strange way, kicking the first two goals didn't help our cause.

[ILLDieADemon 804]

13 hours ago, btdemon said:

No, but in this day and age if a team goes in to a game with any sense that the game is a gimme then there is trouble. it doesn't matter who the opponent is. Of all teams we cannot afford any complacency. We're just not that good yet.

It did look like we played that way, it was just like the Essendon game. No intensity around the ball like we have seen over the past 3 weeks.   

[Ricky P 757]

Not playing well when we're favourites might actually be nerves rather arrogance.

Maybe they overthink it when they're favourites. 

Just a theory.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

I edited the OP to add in yesterday's game. Hopefully this thread can fade away over the next year or so. Remarkably, our only 2 wins as favourites under Roos have come against Brisbane. Yesterday was a lot more convincing than last year however.