2016 will be a breakout year for...

[picket fence 17,059]

JACK WATTS TO SHINE THIS YEAR!

[jumbo returns 6,740]

10 hours ago, willmoy said:

Good

I know, right?

[Gator 17,281]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

You do realize everyone knows what you're trying to do here right? "Needs to kick 40 goals in 2016" Please, spare me your attempted statistical traps, I thought someone with a more "nuanced understanding of football" would not use such simplistic criteria (other than when they're trying to create an unwinnable situation for a player they openly despise).

 

 

Keep lowering the bar, Stu, it's what you do best.

Unlike you, I have higher expectations of a talented 196cm forward, who by all reports will be predominantly playing forward in 2016 (should he make best 22).  

Stu, it's his 8th year and he plays it as a 25 year old.  What's your bench mark for him as a forward ?  Mine is kicking goals.  The odd nice goal assist won't cut it.

Stu, the following players kicked over 50 goals last year: Stringer, Wingard, Gunston, Breust and Dickson (note I didn't include monsters)

Stu, LeCras kicked 45.  Even the home-drone McCarthy kicked 35 (in his second year).

Stu, Gunston has kicked 39 goals or more 4 times in his 6 year career.

Yes, we've been crap, which hasn't made life easy, but in his 8th year with a team on the rise and Hogan taking the opposition's best do you think it's finally time Watts can actually kick some goals ?  Or were you happy with his 10 in 2015 ?

Forwards need to kick goals, our team needs to kick goals, Watts needs to kick goals.  Even the much maligned Justin Westhoff has kicked 20+ 8 times (2 x 30+).

Watts kicked 21 in his third year, but you think I'm setting him up to fail in his 8th year by suggesting he should double that tally ?

You and your "likers" have no clue and deserve to follow a crap team. 

[Slartibartfast 17,190]

1 minute ago, ProDee said:

Keep lowering the bar, Stu, it's what you do best.

Unlike you, I have higher expectations of a talented 196cm forward, who by all reports will be predominantly playing forward in 2016 (should he make best 22).  

Stu, it's his 8th year and he plays it as a 25 year old.  What's your bench mark for him as a forward ?  Mine is kicking goals.  The odd nice goal assist won't cut it.

Stu, the following players kicked over 50 goals last year: Stringer, Wingard, Gunston, Breust and Dickson (note I didn't include monsters)

Stu, LeCras kicked 45.  Even the home-drone McCarthy kicked 35 (in his second year).

Stu, Gunston has kicked 39 goals or more 4 times in his 6 year career.

Yes, we've been crap, which hasn't made life easy, but in his 8th year with a team on the rise and Hogan taking the opposition's best do you think it's finally time Watts can actually kick some goals ?  Or were you happy with his 10 in 2015 ?

Forwards need to kick goals, our team needs to kick goals, Watts needs to kick goals.  Even the much maligned Justin Westhoff has kicked 20+ 8 times (2 x 30+).

Watts kicked 21 in his third year, but you think I'm setting him up to fail in his 8th year by suggesting he should double that tally ?

You and your "likers" have no clue and deserve to follow a crap team. 

Have you got any idea how boring you are with this stuff?

[Gator 17,281]

6 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Have you got any idea how boring you are with this stuff?

Intelligent response.

[Slartibartfast 17,190]

Just now, ProDee said:

Intelligent response.

Yeh, and you're debating Stu.

[Gator 17,281]

Just now, Baghdad Bob said:

Yeh, and you're debating Stu.

It's not a debate.

There are no facts in question to debate.

But your evaluation of Stu has merit.

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

Watts kicked 21 in his third year, but you think I'm setting him up to fail in his 8th year by suggesting he should double that tally ?

You and your "likers" have no clue and deserve to follow a crap team. 

Correct, but you are basing his performance purely off goal kicking and setting that as the bench mark. Id be much happier for him to continue improving his consistency and be increasing his amount of score involvements. If he can be averaging over 20 disposals and 7 or so score involvement a game as a high half forward/wing I will feel he is more than adequately playing his role for the side. 

All of the players you mentioned spend significantly more time in the forward 50 than Jack Watts does and the same is so for most of the players who kick over 40 goals. Higgins 39, Everitt 33 and Deledio 27 are really when the list starts involving midfield/forward but even so Everitt played a lot deeper. 

If we are able to have 3, 40+ goal kickers our side should easily be in the top 4 as our output score will increase by 1/7 if we are making the assumption that Hogan and Gartlett hold form. (Edit: whilst one player increasing their goal kicking by 30 goals only gives us 250 for the year, it makes for a reasonable assumption that he wouldn't be kicking 100% of our extra goals and therefore we would be looking at a 300+ goal season and Watts would still be kicking nearly 50% of our extra goals)

whilst I do hope for a higher goal output from Jack Watts, I think a 25+ goal season out of high half forward will be a great result and will reward him with a contract extension, 40 goals will make him a top 50 player in the AFL and probably melbournes most influential player.

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Mad_Melbourne

[Rob Mac...... 638]

Hoping Gawn, Hogan, Brayshaw & Viney consolidate & improve at least slightly on their fine 2015's.

 

Breakouts?: Salem, Kent, vandenBerg, maybe Tyson, T McD (AA?), Watts, Harmes.

 

Anticipating Petracca, Oliver, Hulett & Frost. 

 

So with Jones, Bernard & Dunn maintaining their standards, & Goody's attacking style, there's much to look forward to this year!    ...again, as I say every year.  

 

But this year I really mean it !

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,359]

My sportsbet account.

[Guest]

Not getting much of a mention here, but I think Billy Stretch makes the wing position his own this year. Can see him developing into an Isaac Smith-type player within the next couple of years.

Outside of him - Kent, Salem and Watts to be the big improvers. Gawn and Tommy to go to the next level, and Tyson to regain (and improve on) his 2014 form.

Realistically, if half of the above happens, we're in for year of substantial improvement.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Scythe

[nutbean 8,838]

On 1/30/2016 at 7:20 PM, biggestred said:

Colin Sylvia 

I am a bit iffy on this one - after all he has had an interrupted preseason....

[Gator 17,281]

7 hours ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Correct, but you are basing his performance purely off goal kicking and setting that as the bench mark. Id be much happier for him to continue improving his consistency and be increasing his amount of score involvements. If he can be averaging over 20 disposals and 7 or so score involvement a game as a high half forward/wing I will feel he is more than adequately playing his role for the side. 

All of the players you mentioned spend significantly more time in the forward 50 than Jack Watts does and the same is so for most of the players who kick over 40 goals. Higgins 39, Everitt 33 and Deledio 27 are really when the list starts involving midfield/forward but even so Everitt played a lot deeper. 

If we are able to have 3, 40+ goal kickers our side should easily be in the top 4 as our output score will increase by 1/7 if we are making the assumption that Hogan and Gartlett hold form. (Edit: whilst one player increasing their goal kicking by 30 goals only gives us 250 for the year, it makes for a reasonable assumption that he wouldn't be kicking 100% of our extra goals and therefore we would be looking at a 300+ goal season and Watts would still be kicking nearly 50% of our extra goals)

whilst I do hope for a higher goal output from Jack Watts, I think a 25+ goal season out of high half forward will be a great result and will reward him with a contract extension, 40 goals will make him a top 50 player in the AFL and probably melbournes most influential player.

 

Perhaps you haven't been paying attention this preseason, as Watts has been earmarked for a more permanent forward role.  Otherwise, I wouldn't be setting a benchmark for goals.  That said, if he'd fulfilled reasonable expectations he'd already be a goal-kicker in that role.

Glad to see though that you're happy for him to "continue improving his consistency".  Perhaps when he's retired the penny will drop as to how modest and naive your expectations were.  

Just because Watts has been done to death doesn't mean it's still not a reasonable conversation to have.  Especially at 25 and in his 8th year.

I can only conclude that what you find an acceptable output is poor in my eyes.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

PDs views on Watts are obviously really well known.

But, in my view, the Jack Watts discussion is as interesting and relevant this year as it's ever been. He's finally part of reasonably well balanced and coached list - given Watts' clear talents, it'll be interesting to see how he is used and how he performs in that role, whatever it may be.

I am predicting a really good season from him.

 

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

24 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Perhaps you haven't been paying attention this preseason, as Watts has been earmarked for a more permanent forward role.  Otherwise, I wouldn't be setting a benchmark for goals.  That said, if he'd fulfilled reasonable expectations he'd already be a goal-kicker in that role.

Glad to see though that you're happy for him to "continue improving his consistency".  Perhaps when he's retired the penny will drop as to how modest and naive your expectations were.  

Just because Watts has been done to death doesn't mean it's still not a reasonable conversation to have.  Especially at 25 and in his 8th year.

I can only conclude that what you find an acceptable output is poor in my eyes.

Nothing you have said actually continues on from any of the points that I made in relation to your actual expectations and how ridiculous the bar you set for him as a player was. Not only are you only placing a goal output on his expectations, but the fact that you only consider a 30 goal increase from his previous season to be an acceptable level is ridiculous, where do you expect Melbourne to finish? Will our total goal tally increase by only 30 goals  and it is the responsibility of Jack Watts to kick all these? If not, even if it improves by 100 goals he is still responsible for effectively 1/3 of our increased goal tally and therefore this is why your expectations are clearly unrealistic.

Whilst I am not disagreeing that he is not going to be playing as a more permanent forward, he will not a be a deep target and will be playing as more of the 5th as a forward, pushing up and down the ground and effectively playing as a midfielder whilst in that role as a HFF. He will not be spending more than 15-20% of his game time in our forward 50 in my opinion, unless they are completely changing the role that he has played and did play last year. This also indicates that the amount of times we will be looking for him in our forward 50 will be insignificant relative to Hogan, Dawes, Gartlett, Frost and even possibly Gawn who could well spend a similar amount of game time in the deep forward area. He is more damaging for us being the player recieving the ball at around the 65m mark anyway and delivering it into 50 and whilst you think that goal assists are not what he should be basing an acceptable season on, score involvements its definitely what he should be aiming to increase.

Whilst it is fair to expect improvement from Watts, and I do expect continual improvement from most of our players. The areas of improvement that need to come from Watts will be the ability to continually be involved in the contest and whilst you may say that is "modest and naive" it is 100% what would have been said to him at his end of year meeting and again what will be said to him by the coaches when goals are set for the season. Will this lead to a 40 goal season, it is highly unlikely considering all of the available information, but I do not really expect you to have a logical argument about a player you so openly dislike and your bias has a major impact on what you expect or consider a reasonable season.

EDIT: Happy to have a reasonable conversation about Jack Watts and anything that involves the melbourne football club, but a reasonable conversation is tough when you rarely address the points made in the response and choose to take the small quote out which you feel best suits your often condescending and patronizing posts.
 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Mad_Melbourne

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,693]

11 hours ago, picket fence said:

JACK WATTS TO SHINE THIS YEAR!

Jimmy Toumpas

 

 

(Not really. Just wanting to stir up Picket. Not sure why...)

[stuie 7,374]

8 hours ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Correct, but you are basing his performance purely off goal kicking and setting that as the bench mark. Id be much happier for him to continue improving his consistency and be increasing his amount of score involvements. If he can be averaging over 20 disposals and 7 or so score involvement a game as a high half forward/wing I will feel he is more than adequately playing his role for the side. 

All of the players you mentioned spend significantly more time in the forward 50 than Jack Watts does and the same is so for most of the players who kick over 40 goals. Higgins 39, Everitt 33 and Deledio 27 are really when the list starts involving midfield/forward but even so Everitt played a lot deeper. 

If we are able to have 3, 40+ goal kickers our side should easily be in the top 4 as our output score will increase by 1/7 if we are making the assumption that Hogan and Gartlett hold form. (Edit: whilst one player increasing their goal kicking by 30 goals only gives us 250 for the year, it makes for a reasonable assumption that he wouldn't be kicking 100% of our extra goals and therefore we would be looking at a 300+ goal season and Watts would still be kicking nearly 50% of our extra goals)

whilst I do hope for a higher goal output from Jack Watts, I think a 25+ goal season out of high half forward will be a great result and will reward him with a contract extension, 40 goals will make him a top 50 player in the AFL and probably melbournes most influential player.

 

Take note of this post "ProDee" this is an actual "nuanced understanding of football" as opposed to your simplistic "me forward, me kick goals" approach.

 

[Coup Cooper 610]

14 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

What's vandenBerg paying to win the Brownlow?

I got 10 on Viney at 151-1

[jane02 3,741]

Kent and Salem for me.

[FireOath 290]

Dom Tyson

[Pates 9,660]

Salem. I was concerned with his injury issues last year, but his last game v GWS has me convinced. He's a bit of an unknown in the comp, by the end of 2016 he won't be.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,359]

3 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

PDs views on Watts are obviously really well known.

But, in my view, the Jack Watts discussion is as interesting and relevant this year as it's ever been. He's finally part of reasonably well balanced and coached list - given Watts' clear talents, it'll be interesting to see how he is used and how he performs in that role, whatever it may be.

I am predicting a really good season from him.

 

In short Ron every player is flat out of excuses. We are entering our third season under competent coaches, players don't simply loose their talent. We have 23 players out of contract this year.

[dee-luded 2,959]

15 hours ago, picket fence said:

JACK WATTS TO SHINE THIS YEAR!

I sincerely hope so pf.

[dee-luded 2,959]

5 hours ago, Scythe said:

Not getting much of a mention here, but I think Billy Stretch makes the wing position his own this year. Can see him developing into an Isaac Smith-type player within the next couple of years.

Outside of him - Kent, Salem and Watts to be the big improvers. Gawn and Tommy to go to the next level, and Tyson to regain (and improve on) his 2014 form.

Realistically, if half of the above happens, we're in for year of substantial improvement.

I was thinking Kent on that wing 2016.   with Watts & Petracca on H/FF's

[Lord Travis 10,698]

Tyson, Salem and Kent.

Tyson to get back to his 2014 form and build on it.
Salem and Kent to play 22 games, perform consistently, and not just give us flashes of talent between injuries.

Assuming no injuries to key players (Jones, Hogan, Gawn, McDonald), if those 3 listed above fulfil their potential then we will make finals.