Have The Hawks become flat track bullies that wilt under pressure?

[Frosty Demon 153]

Why they are every thing the MFC should be.

I hate all opposition clubs. Its irrational I know, but its just how it is

[ManDee 7,091]

Goodes 43, S Black 31, Hird 64, A Lynch 50, Tingay 50, T-Mac 53, Chapman 35, Fyfe 20 ... there are numerous other examples as well as being 2-4 busts out of the top 10 picks in any given draft we've ever had (busts - in terms of expectations)

I don't profess to have all the answers nor do I believe anyone has those answers. With all the hundreds of drafting anomalies, we can either blame all the recruiters over the years as being largely incompetent (and we have to blame all of them) ... or we blame the system. To me, it's a no-brainer.

My argument is not centered on our club either ManDee, I'm more looking at things from an overall perspective

Those wanting to scream like banshees at our drafting decisions can go on screaming till their hearts are content - it won't do them any good. They may as well be howling at the moon.

Lifting the drafting age might help considerably ... League Considering Draft Age Rise: McLachlan (whether anything comes of all this is another matter)

Macca, as I said most of the current top 20 players would be top 20 picks excluding father sons. You name only one that would currently be top 20 and guess what he was pick 20. Many of the others are retired. Drafting is better now but not perfect.

Your suggestion of raising the draft age is probably the only improvement that I can see.

[Moonshadow 16,347]

They were lucky with the timing of the injuries last year.

If Hodge, Mitchell and or Lewis missed a final it would be very difficult to near on impossible for them to win. Depth can't replace champions, if it could the depth players wouldn't be depth.

Depth helped the Hawks get to the GF. They toughed out a year of significant injuries and arguably the hardest draw of any club. Has to be admired. They didn't win the flag because of any luck at all rjay.

[rjay 23,970]

Depth helped the Hawks get to the GF. They toughed out a year of significant injuries and arguably the hardest draw of any club. Has to be admired. They didn't win the flag because of any luck at all rjay.

Any team that wins a GF has an element of luck. If the Hawks had injuries to Mitchell and Hodge at final time rather than mid season they would have really struggled.

They certainly worked hard to achieve their flag, there's no denying that and their depth helped throughout the season but in the big games you need your champions. Having them all on the park and fit at GF time is the luck part of the equation.

[Macca 16,173]

Macca, as I said most of the current top 20 players would be top 20 picks excluding father sons. You name only one that would currently be top 20 and guess what he was pick 20. Many of the others are retired. Drafting is better now but not perfect.

Your suggestion of raising the draft age is probably the only improvement that I can see.

Have you studied all the results from all the drafts? I suggest you do so and get back to me

Also, a top 5 pick is viewed a lot differently to a pick 20 (Fyfe should have been pick 1 if we're being fair dinkum)

Do the research and you'll see things differently - and not selectively either ... a macro approach is needed.

[ManDee 7,091]

Have you studied all the results from all the drafts? I suggest you do so and get back to me

Also, a top 5 pick is viewed a lot differently to a pick 20 (Fyfe should have been pick 1 if we're being fair dinkum)

Do the research and you'll see things differently - and not selectively either ... a macro approach is needed.

I agree Macca the early drafts were a lucky dip, but I think you would agree that the strike rate is better now.

Last years top 20 from AFL.com http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/players-top-50

1 Ablett Father son

2 Fyfe pick 20

3 J Selwood pick 7

4 L Franklin pick 5

5 S Pendelbury pick 5

6 J Roughead pick 2

7 Dangefield pick 10

8 Hodge pick 1

9 Boak pick 5

10 R Gray pick 55

11 J Kennedy pick 40

12 J Watson father son

13 T Cotchin pick 2

14 M Priddis pick 31

15 D Heppell pick 8

16 N Reiwoldt pick 1

17 S Johnson pick 24

18 S Mitchell pick 36

19 T Rockliff pick 5

20 A Sandilands pick 33

As I said Macca most of the top 20 players were top 20 picks or father sons.

Edited May 12, 2015 by ManDee

[Macca 16,173]

I agree Macca the early drafts were a lucky dip, but I think you would agree that the strike rate is better now.

Last years top 20 from AFL.com http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/players-top-50

1 Ablett Father son

2 Fyfe pick 20

3 J Selwood pick 7

4 L Franklin pick 5

5 S Pendelbury pick 5

6 J Roughead pick 2

7 Dangefield pick 10

8 Hodge pick 1

9 Boak pick 5

10 R Gray pick 55

11 J Kennedy pick 40

12 J Watson father son

13 T Cotchin pick 2

14 M Priddis pick 31

15 D Heppell pick 8

16 N Reiwoldt pick 1

17 S Johnson pick 24

18 S Mitchell pick 36

19 T Rockliff pick 5

20 A Sandilands pick 33

As I said Macca most of the top 20 players were top 20 picks or father sons.

You're being selective though - my argument centres around the draft from it's beginnings up until around about 2009.

We probably should stop now because we're not on the same page and we're having 2 separate arguments within the one topic. Drafting is a complex concept that can't be explained away easily.

I don't trust the draft but I have come to terms with it - busts are going to happen going forward because of the way the draft is set up. I can deal with busts but many people here can't - and that is the issue I'm arguing

In this thread I started ... Bad Luck or Bad Recruiting I make mention of all the top 5 picks that have become busts from the drafts 2000-2009 inclusive. It didn't get a lot of traffic nor did I think it would. However, it's a good reference point in terms of highlighting how hit and miss drafting is.

I acknowledge your list of players but do you think it's fair that a club has just as much chance of drafting a bust with a top 5 pick as it has of drafting a good player or better?

[ManDee 7,091]

You're being selective though - my argument centres around the draft from it's beginnings up until around about 2009.

We probably should stop now because we're not on the same page and we're having 2 separate arguments within the one topic. Drafting is a complex concept that can't be explained away easily.

I don't trust the draft but I have come to terms with it - busts are going to happen going forward because of the way the draft is set up. I can deal with busts but many people here can't - and that is the issue I'm arguing

In this thread I started ... Bad Luck or Bad Recruiting I make mention of all the top 5 picks that have become busts from the drafts 2000-2009 inclusive. It didn't get a lot of traffic nor did I think it would. However, it's a good reference point in terms of highlighting how hit and miss drafting is.

I acknowledge your list of players but do you think it's fair that a club has just as much chance of drafting a bust with a top 5 pick as it has of drafting a good player or better?

Fair point, I have also focused on recent drafts as I think we are getting better.

If the draft age was raised to 20 I think the chances for success would be greater. This would also be a bonus for second level competitions like the VFL.

I agree wholeheartedly on the early drafts, they were hit & miss.

[Moonshadow 16,347]

Any team that wins a GF has an element of luck. If the Hawks had injuries to Mitchell and Hodge at final time rather than mid season they would have really struggled.

They certainly worked hard to achieve their flag, there's no denying that and their depth helped throughout the season but in the big games you need your champions. Having them all on the park and fit at GF time is the luck part of the equation.

My original post was that the Hawks had a tough draw in 2014 and their depth helped them towards their flag. I don't see there is any luck in that.

Their champions being available for the GF is far more good management, planning and conditioning than pure luck (whatever that may be). Of course, they could be injured at any time, if you want to call that luck, but they weren't on GF day, that was their intention all along and they achieved it. In many ways it was a near faultless year for the Hawks, not a lucky year.

Anyway, this is somewhat aside from the thread topic, so I'll move on.

[Macca 16,173]

Fair point, I have also focused on recent drafts as I think we are getting better.

If the draft age was raised to 20 I think the chances for success would be greater. This would also be a bonus for second level competitions like the VFL.

I agree wholeheartedly on the early drafts, they were hit & miss.

Yes the draft results are much better than they once were but that still doesn't make those more recent results satisfactory.

Which brings us all the way back to my original point.

[ManDee 7,091]

Yes the draft results are much better than they once were but that still doesn't make those more recent results satisfactory.

Which brings us all the way back to my original point.

Damn I've forgotten now.

[Disco Demons 92]

hawks won the flag 2008. in 2009 hawks were 3 & 3 after round 6. Ended up missing finals in 2009.

History repeating 2015? ;-)

Not sure this has been posted already

[Macca 16,173]

Damn I've forgotten now.

Ha!

So glad we settled all that ... but just one more thing ...

Can someone please explain why Chris Grant went at pick 105 :-)

[CBDees 3,162]

Agree. I'm not saying we haven't done poorly, but those who praise the GWS recruiting over ours need to look at the statistics. GWS got a very large number of high draft picks, we got a few. Given that not that many top picks end up top players, the more you have the better your chances. It is not like tattslotto where buying 4 tickets does increase your chances by a factor of 4, but your odds are still bugger-all.

We only got 'a few' because we were shafted by the AFL, during the three years when GWS were feasting on high draft picks and we were denied Priority Picks, notwithstanding the fact that we won 4, 2 & 4 games respectively over those three years making the whole equalisation principles farcical. With another three ' top three ' midfielders or KPPs on our list we might be sitting where they are on the ladder today.

[PaulRB 5,985]

One of the few consolations for supporting one of the least respected teams in the competition (at the moment) is that when we beat a side above us (i.e. any of them) it sends them into a world of pain and humiliation.

Should we pull one out of our "perverbials" and beat the Hawks, they'll have a melt down and the media will start to write them off...

[ManDee 7,091]

Ha!

So glad we settled all that ... but just one more thing ...

Can someone please explain why Chris Grant went at pick 105 :-)

Well I just did a google search, guess what?

Google doesn't know either. Wikipedia - nothing!

Macca it's a mystery.

[Tony Tea 2,792]

I'd let Melbourne become an FTB if that would give me 12 premierships in my lifetime.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Morton at pick 4 is just diabolical. I remember watching his junior highlights at the time, and remembering he looks lie a nice kick of the footy but not much else... I think we all hoped he would be a Robbie FLower type wingman/utility. But he wasnt a competitor and hated contact.

And to make the same mistake 12 months later and take a similar player in Watts at pick 1.. it defies belief.

Thank christ those days are over, but it set us back so far. We will get there and are in a much better position now, but bloody hell we came from a long way back.

I spoke to Gubby Allan at a corporate function a few years ago.

He confirmed that the majority of clubs had Watts at number one in that draft.

Defies belief? Really?!

[dees189227 10,910]

I remember it must have been back in 2006 or that time when we were good and we beat hawthorn and they said look demons fans you are on top of the ladder. how I wish for those days.

Reported on the news tongiht lake is a chance to come back and frawley will probably come back. Its a shame because Shoenmakers is very vulnerable 1 out. Love to see Hogan rip through the pack.

[demoniac 1,243]

Fair point, I have also focused on recent drafts as I think we are getting better.

If the draft age was raised to 20 I think the chances for success would be greater. This would also be a bonus for second level competitions like the VFL.

I agree wholeheartedly on the early drafts, they were hit & miss.

Finish school and wait 2 or 3 years to be drafted playing for peanuts in the VFL or leave school and take a basketball scholarship in the USA?

[Sir Why You Little 34,705]

Finish school and wait 2 or 3 years to be drafted playing for peanuts in the VFL or leave school and take a basketball scholarship in the USA?

there is your answer

The AFL cannot afford to put the draft age up

We just have to get sharper using it.

[John Crow Batty 8,286]

I spoke to Gubby Allan at a corporate function a few years ago.

He confirmed that the majority of clubs had Watts at number one in that draft.

Defies belief? Really?!

No, defies hindsight.

[Macca 16,173]

there is your answer

The AFL cannot afford to put the draft age up

We just have to get sharper using it.

And how do you propose we do that? More aptitude or psyche tests? More beep tests?

What you need to accept is that a bad system is prone to spitting out poor results. We've all seen bad systems in our working lives on a constant basis and the draft is no different.

In the meantime, you will just continue to slag players off who don't come up to your totally unrealistic expectations. All based on a draft pick number that that player never bestowed on himself anyway.

With you, your venom is directed at the club first, then the recruiter, then the player ... then you start carrying on about the player we should have picked instead.

.

Edited May 12, 2015 by Macca

[demoniac 1,243]

Without Hodge and Lewis Hawks only really have Mitchell and Burgoyne as inside contested ball winners but neither are as physical as Hodge and Lewis.

They play without a key forward given Roughead is really a power utility.

If you can break down their ball movement the quality of their kicks inside 50 falls. Instead of spotting up Roughead, Gunston, Breust, Rioli with precision they have to bomb it in but they don't have a forward capable of taking a contested pack mark.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Without Hodge and Lewis Hawks only really have Mitchell and Burgoyne as inside contested ball winners but neither are as physical as Hodge and Lewis.

They play without a key forward given Roughead is really a power utility.

If you can break down their ball movement the quality of their kicks inside 50 falls. Instead of spotting up Roughead, Gunston, Breust, Rioli with precision they have to bomb it in but they don't have a forward capable of taking a contested pack mark.

Smith, Hill and Shiels are the ones that could hurt us. Presuming McDonald takes Roughead, I can imagine Gunston giving us problems, though I just looked him up and funnily enough he's never actually played Melbourne