Stats that Matter - Season 2015 (or a truckload of bulldust!?)

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Snapshot to Round 5, 2015.

Note: Rankings based on player averages (ie., played at least 2 games or more this season)

Top 5 Rankings

Contested (average per game)

1. Tyson (9.8)

2. Jones (9.4)

2. Cross (9.4)

4. Vandenberg (9.2)

5. Newton (8.0)

Uncontested

1. Viney (15.0)
2. Cross (11.6)
3. Michie (11.5)
4. McDonald (11.4)
5. Jones (10.8)

Effective Disposals

1. Cross (14.8)
2. McDonald (14.6)
3. Viney (14.0)
4. Howe (13.6)
5. Michie (13.5)

Effective Disposal % (Best)

1. Howe (81.1%)
2. Dunn (80.3%)
3. Garland (80.2%)
4. McDonald (78.0%)
5. Lumumba (76.9%)

Note: AFL Team Average 72.8% (Excluding MFC). Highest % >> Dockers 79.3 , Lowest % >> Demons 68.6

Effective Disposal % (Worst)

1. Frost (46.8%)
2. Vandenberg (53.9%)
3. Garlett (54.0%)
4. Kent (56.7%)
5. JKH (59.4%)

Clearances

1. Tyson (5.2)

2. Viney (4.5)

2. Vince (4.5)

4 Cross (3.6)

5 Jones (3.2)

Tackles

1. Viney (7.5)
2. Vandenberg (5.6)

1. Brayshaw (5.6)

4. Garlett (4.80)

1. Vince (4.75)

Contested Marks

1. Hogan (2.6)
2. McDonald (1.6)
3. Salem (1.2)
4. Howe (1.0)
5. Jamar (0.8)

[M C 221]

What's up with Jones?

Having a real quiet start so far

[mo64 5,853]

Just goes to show how irrelevant effective disposal percentages are. If you're playing with a 7 man backline, it's far easier for them to hit a target with a short pass. Conversely, the opposite's the case for the small forwards where loose ball gets are under pressure.

Edited May 4, 2015 by mo64

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

What's up with Jones?

Having a real quiet start so far

He's been an absolute stalwart through a horror stretch M C. He's had some good and some not so good weeks so far but might also be feeling the weight (disctractions) of the captaincy.

I think he'll be alot better once Viney comes in to add a decent rotation through the mid to ease the load a little.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Just goes to show how irrelevant effective disposal percentages are. If you're playing with a 7 man backline, it's far easier for them to hit a target with a short pass. Conversely, the opposite's the case for the small forwards where loose ball gets are under pressure.

If we could compare the averages of each line vs individuals. Eg., mid field league (average) effective disposal % vs the % of guys playing there such as Jones, Vince, Viney (others). Same for HB line etc?

Although with the amount of running, positional changes and rotations off the bench now, this would be a very difficult proposition.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[Deestroy All 14,262]

What's up with Jones?

Having a real quiet start so far

Carrying a left shoulder that got injured in the last five minutes against Gold Coast.

[SaberFang 7,151]

Every team we've played has lost the following week. I find that stat quite interesting.

Interesting to see what happens with Freo in Round 6! We barely touched them, so probably nothing but a convincing win.

[Demon3 2,541]

Nathan Jones has a crook neck, it's troubled him since a hit R1.

[jnrmac 20,053]

And he is being heavily tagged

[poita 3,889]

Our contested stats were okay on the weekend, it is the uncontested part of the game we suck at. Taking the injured Viney out of the equation, our leading players in this department are three plodding midfielders and our full back. Contrast that to Freo who have five players ahead of Viney on the list, and at least ten ahead of Cross. No wonder we got flogged.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Nathan Jones has a crook neck, it's troubled him since a hit R1.

Carrying a left shoulder that got injured in the last five minutes against Gold Coast.

Good info cheers

[PaulRB 6,341]

Given our lack of midfield depth those stats highlight what a big loss Viney out injured has been.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Our contested stats were okay on the weekend, it is the uncontested part of the game we suck at. Taking the injured Viney out of the equation, our leading players in this department are three plodding midfielders and our full back. Contrast that to Freo who have five players ahead of Viney on the list, and at least ten ahead of Cross. No wonder we got flogged.

Yeh our inside quality is reasonable (no i'm not saying it's great either u guys! ) it's what happens outside and on the spread that appears to be one of our main concerns. We certainly don't run/carry/spread and overlap much.

We don't worry our opponents in this department at all really apart from the clubs at similar level to us. Most of the top eight have this side well covered. Some better than others of course.

Edited May 5, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[deanox 9,897]

Statistics show us how big the loss of Viney really is. Uncontested footy is our biggest weakness at the moment, and he was obviously working hard to win uncontested ball.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

these show how important Viney is to our team.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Given our lack of midfield depth those stats highlight what a big loss Viney out injured has been.

Statistics show us how big the loss of Viney really is. Uncontested footy is our biggest weakness at the moment, and he was obviously working hard to win uncontested ball.

these show how important Viney is to our team.

I have to stick my hand up here and say i was pleasantly surprised and wrong at thinking Jack was mostly biased towards "inside" possessions. Seems like he has developed another side to his game here (or was it there all along and i just didn't see it or labelled him as an inside type player?). With a few more seasons under his belt and a bit of luck with injuries can we look forward to a potential gun mid fielder here as was forecast by some experts?

Edited May 5, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[jumbo returns 6,737]

Nathan Jones has a crook neck, it's troubled him since a hit R1.

Rest him....let some of those other bludgers step up!!!

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Rest him....let some of those other bludgers step up!!!

lol jumbo. Can we wait till Viney comes back pls!

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Put together a weighted average of some publicly available stats just to see how they fell out in terms of player rankings. And no i didn't use weightings to produce an outcome. I simply balanced out a number of stats like contested, uncontested, marks i50, tackles, goals, rebound 50s, clangers etc which produced the following outcome. Of course the outcome will change if the weightings are changed so no doubt it probably means very little and is a poor construction but thought i would put it up for interest sake.

MFC player averages to round 5

Player/ Weighted Score

1. Viney 5.41

2. McDonald 5.08

3. Cross 4.94

4. Jones 4.67

5. Lumumba 4.32

6. Tyson 4.27

7. Michie 4.25

8. Vandenberg 4.20

9. Howe 4.15

10. Vince 4.03

11. Newton 3.83

12. Garland 3.75

13. Dunn 3.57

14. Salem 3.52

15. *[Pedersen] 3.48 (TOG 90%)

16. Hogan 3.43

17. Garlett 3.34

18. Brayshaw 3.20

19. Watts 3.02

20. JKH 2.91

21. Dawes 2.63

22. Jetta 2.44

23. #Jamar 2.01

24. Kent 1.99

25. Frost 1.78

26.* Toumpas 0.70 (TOG 27%)

* Not an average as player has only played 1 match

# Key ruck stat of "hit outs to advantage" not included

Note: Average TOG for all MFC players who have had game time to Rnd 5 is 76.9%

Stats: Courtesy of Footywire

Edited May 5, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[rpfc 28,249]

Statistics show us how big the loss of Viney really is. Uncontested footy is our biggest weakness at the moment, and he was obviously working hard to win uncontested ball.

We have had this discussion before and UPs drive the modern game - the correlation with UPs and Margin is something I looked into a couple of years ago.

Viney has been great this year with his spread and desire to run into space and get easier footy. He was getting 4 more UPs a game than last year.

Last year we averaged 218 Uncontested Possies a game, so far this year we average 175, if I remove the two games in the wet, it moves the needle to 188 with the GC game our highest at 197.

We are easily the lowest, with that 188 number comparable to Carlton and GC - two teams that define the word 'struggling' at the minute. The Bulldogs are 5th lowest but they have 208 - so the jump is marked from the lower teams to the teams who 'get enough uncontested footy' to regularly compete. Collingwood are an outlier with 198 UPs but they are kings of contested footy at the moment with 9 more CPs than the next best.

Jones is down 6 UPs a game from last year (including only the dry games), Tyson is down 4, HL is down 3, Vince is down 4, and Matt Jones who was our 5th best UP getter last year with an average of 13.6 hasn't played a game.

[Young Dee 1,303]

Yes Viney is a loss but I think looking at his stats and comparing them to last year/other players is fairly ridiculous - he has played 2 games this year!

Stats have their uses but I think they are often over analysed.

Edited May 6, 2015 by Young Dee

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

We have had this discussion before and UPs drive the modern game - the correlation with UPs and Margin is something I looked into a couple of years ago.

Viney has been great this year with his spread and desire to run into space and get easier footy. He was getting 4 more UPs a game than last year.

Last year we averaged 218 Uncontested Possies a game, so far this year we average 175, if I remove the two games in the wet, it moves the needle to 188 with the GC game our highest at 197.

We are easily the lowest, with that 188 number comparable to Carlton and GC - two teams that define the word 'struggling' at the minute. The Bulldogs are 5th lowest but they have 208 - so the jump is marked from the lower teams to the teams who 'get enough uncontested footy' to regularly compete. Collingwood are an outlier with 198 UPs but they are kings of contested footy at the moment with 9 more CPs than the next best.

Jones is down 6 UPs a game from last year (including only the dry games), Tyson is down 4, HL is down 3, Vince is down 4, and Matt Jones who was our 5th best UP getter last year with an average of 13.6 hasn't played a game.

I hear he hasn't set the world on fire at Casey this year so far which is a shame RP.

As you mention he was right up there last year on UPs & effective disposals. I only kept averages to round 14 as i couldn't be bothered after that so not sure how many games he played in the last 8 rounds but i had him ranked 3rd in UPs behind Nate and Tyson and 4th in effective disposals behind Nate Tyson & Cross till then.

Hopefully he can get one more shot at it this year if he gets it right at Casey.

Edited May 6, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[deanox 9,897]

Interesting would be an analysis of which players get the most uncontested possessions and have the highest disposal efficiency (which, to my knowledge, is the closest stat to "retaining possession after disposal"*). Those players would be very valuable to us at the moment as they would be the guys linking the play and keeping us moving. I suspect we don't have many.

*DE actual is something like "short kicks and handballs to a player not under pressure (which is an uncontested possession) and long kicks to a 50/50 or better contest (which isn't always an uncontested possession )"

I suspect we have a number of players who get uncontested ball but then give it up, rather than providing another uncontested possession.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Interesting would be an analysis of which players get the most uncontested possessions and have the highest disposal efficiency (which, to my knowledge, is the closest stat to "retaining possession after disposal"*). Those players would be very valuable to us at the moment as they would be the guys linking the play and keeping us moving. I suspect we don't have many.

*DE actual is something like "short kicks and handballs to a player not under pressure (which is an uncontested possession) and long kicks to a 50/50 or better contest (which isn't always an uncontested possession )"

I suspect we have a number of players who get uncontested ball but then give it up, rather than providing another uncontested possession.

Effective Disposals is something like :- effective long kicks, effective short kicks and effective handballs. An effective long kick is one that is 40 metres to a 50/50 or better for the team. An effective short kick is one that results in a teammate's possession who was the intended target of the kicker. A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target to the team's advantage is recorded as an effective handball.

The top 6 MFC players with average disposal efficiency % higher than league average who also rank highest in uncontested so far are....

Player/UPs/Disposal Efficiency %

Michie 11.5/75.7

McDonald 11.4/78.0

Lumumba 10.8/76.9

Dunn 9.2/80.3

Garland 8.6/80.2

Howe 8.6/81.1

The next best, but with a below AFL average disposal efficiency% is Cross with 11.6 UPs at a DE of 70.6%

The average DE% for all league clubs (excluding the MFC) is 72.8%

It would be nice to have average "metres gained" per disposal stat if we could get our hands on it showing who is delivering the ball forward of play, putting pressure on the opposition (if delivered to our advantage) and providing potential scoring opportunities versus many of the junk "standard" UPs which often go sideways/backwards in the back half giving many defenders and maybe some not so good decision makers/users of the ball through the middle a skewed leg up in the DE% each week.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[deanox 9,897]

Thanks rusty.

I want sure if it was 40 or 30 m so you covered it for me!

Interesting that 5 of the top 6 are defenders. That seems to support the kicking sideways theory. Without metres gained, rebound from 50 and inside 50s may be able to provide some commentary on the type of possessions.

We really need a couple of our mids to be pushing into sublet or better stats categories. And this is one Watts should be aiming to be in